Every time the Cubs play at American Family Field in Milwaukee, a horde of Chicago fans make the short trip north, 90 miles from Wrigley Field. Brewers fans have understandably always chafed at this dynamic. Imagine how they are going to feel now.
The news is stunning no matter which aspect of it you want to focus on first. Craig Counsell -- a Milwaukee-area native, former Brewers player and stalwart Wisconsinite in every way -- has left the team. David Ross -- "Grandpa Rossy," 2016 World Series hero -- is out in Chicago. Counsell will replace Ross and become baseball's highest-paid manager on a reported five-year, $40 million deal.
Who among us had that on our Hot Stove bingo card?
But it's real, and we have the press release to prove it. On the first day of free agency, when available players can sign with new teams, the Cubs have already made possibly the highest-impact move of the winter.
Hyperbole? Perhaps, and because we're talking managerial impact here, it's easy to hide behind a cloud of subjectivity. Still, think of it like this: The Cubs just stole the game's best manager from their chief division rival (sorry, Cardinals and Reds fans; these things evolve), a team Chicago just finished nine games behind in the recently completed season.
Is Counsell alone worth those nine wins, in terms of the swing from one rival to the other? Probably not, though I think the "probably" equivocation is necessary. Some of that depends on whom the Brewers hire to replace Counsell in the dugout.
Whoever that is will have some big cheeseheads to fill. It's been the relationship between Counsell and his front offices -- the two-way communication about what's needed and how resources should be deployed -- that has been the bedrock of Milwaukee's consistent success. That dynamic now has to change.
"You just see what you have and you understand what the manager is looking for," Brewers GM Matt Arnold told ESPN late in the season. "The manager is the focal point of everything through the season when it comes to the product on the field. So we're always in conversation and we have a spirited debate about what we need, and how to deploy the best roster. And that's always healthy."
There is no manager metric. We can look at team-level dynamics and compare them from one team to the next, but so much of what a manager does is embedded in a million little things that end up submerged in a team's bottom line, and it's impossible to draw clear lines between manager/front office and manager/player.
Still, there are a lot of measurable reasons that prove Counsell is the game's best manager. And even if you aren't willing to go quite that far, you have to admit he's on a very short list of managers who belong in that conversation.
Counsell took over from Ron Roenicke as the Brewers' manager during the 2015 season, when he was hired by former Milwaukee GM David Stearns. His first full season was 2016, so let's zero in on the 2016 to 2023 time frame and throw out a few numbers.
• The Brewers' .541 winning percentage during that time ranks eighth in baseball. According to Cot's Contracts, the Brewers have ranked no higher than 17th in Opening Day payroll during those seasons.
• Milwaukee has outperformed its expected record, based on run differential, by a composite 18 games since 2016. Only Seattle (23, under Scott Servais) has done better. That's a rate of 2.4 wins of overachievement over a 162-game season.
• The Brewers have a win percentage of .571 in one-run games since the start of the 2016 season, easily the best mark in baseball.
• According to a file of preseason over/under consensus figures I maintain, the Brewers have exceeded their composite expectation by 40.5 games since 2016. Only the Dodgers, Rays and Braves have done better.
There are also a couple of standout traits that set Counsell apart. First, there is his ability to internalize and communicate the work of his team's analytical arm. He has the gravitas of a former World Series-winning player, but he doesn't just interpret metrics superficially, he understands them at a conceptual level, so that they intertwine with his extensive practical experience on the field itself.
This is one of the skills that make managers like Counsell and Tampa Bay's Kevin Cash in many ways the prototypes for this era in baseball.
"It's very difficult to define," Counsell told ESPN in September. "You read people that try to define it and really it's just all of our collective behavior in the end. We try to care about things that help players play better. If you just keep doing that and stack all those good decisions on top of each other, be very disciplined about making every decision about winning and about players, they learn that that is the way we're going to do things."
The other, less subjective trait about Counsell has been his consistent work with baseball's most stress-inducing position group -- the bullpen.
Since 2016, the Brewers have the seventh-best bullpen ERA in the majors, per TruMedia. If you boil it down to high-leverage spots, Milwaukee has the lowest average allowed during that time (.214), the highest strikeout rate (28.5%) and the lowest OPS allowed (.669). The Brewers are first in saves, have the fewest blown saves and rank fourth in holds.
To be sure, they have employed some of baseball's top closers during Counsell's tenure, most notably Josh Hader and Devin Williams. Counsell deserves some credit for helping transition those players into their roles and also being disciplined in their usage. Annually, Counsell's back-of-the-bullpen hammers rank near the top of the majors in average leverage index because their manager stays away from them when he can.
"Every manager has usages that they try to stick to," Counsell said. "We've had very good bullpens. We've had very good back-end relievers and that's a huge factor in this, for sure."
Counsell seems to have a preternatural feel for running a bullpen based on an underrated concept: how a reliever is throwing, right now. You'll see him throw the same reliever in the same spots for a month. But he'll lay off that reliever if he senses the stuff is ebbing. Then he'll turn back to that reliever when the stuff returns. You'll often watch Counsell run a bullpen and scratch your head about who he inserts and when, but he almost always turns out to be right.
"I think rest is a huge factor in relievers," Counsell said. "I think it's an under-spoken-of factor, in getting your relievers rest and getting them to the best version of themselves. It's a very difficult question that managers face a lot."
Mike Vassallo, senior director of media relations for the Brewers, loves to tout this product of his research: Since the start of 2017, Milwaukee has played 1,195 regular-season games (including a tiebreaker in 2018 -- against the Cubs). In only two of those games have the Brewers been eliminated from playoff contention -- the last games of the 2017 and 2022 seasons.
That remarkable run of consistency has occurred despite constant roster churn. This season, Christian Yelich was the only position player remaining from the first Brewers team he played for in 2018. There has also been a change in leadership in the front office, from Stearns to Arnold.
Despite it all, the Brewers have won year in, year out in baseball's smallest market. There are many reasons for this kind of stability, but in terms of front-facing baseball positions, Counsell has been the constant through it all.
"He is thoughtful," Brewers owner Mark Attanasio said during the playoffs. "He is loyal. He is flat-out a winner and has been a rich part of our history, baseball history."
Attanasio also alluded to Counsell's desire to eventually move into a chief front office role, saying that "is certainly within his skill set." And maybe someday the possibility will open up in Milwaukee.
After speculation about a Counsell/Stearns reunion with the Mets, Counsell at least ends up still in close proximity to Milwaukee, his family and his two college-baseball-playing sons, who both will be in the Big Ten next year.
Counsell will explain his reasoning for the move, I am sure, and we'll get reported tick-tock timelines leading up to the surprising development. Many will simply wave away the news and point to the contract, especially since the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel reported the Brewers' offer topped out at $5.5 million.
As for the Cubs, their decision to quite abruptly and unexpectedly fire a manager who was beloved in the city and in the organization tells you most of what you need to know about how Counsell is viewed within the game. He wins, and that trumps all. If you can get him, you do it.
Counsell departs as the Brewers' all-time winningest manager. His five playoff appearances with the team is more than every other Milwaukee manager combined. If you count Counsell's two Brewers playoff appearances as a player, he has been a part of seven of the franchise's nine playoff teams.
Now, the game's best manager is moving 90 miles to the south, and in doing so, he's flipping the script in the NL Central. You better believe when Cubs fans descend on Milwaukee next season, as they always do, they aren't going to be shy about reminding their friendly neighbors to the north about who they have standing in their dugout.