What do we need to spice up the rest of this offseason? More out-of-nowhere transactions like the Chris Sale-for-Vaughn Grissom trade between the Red Sox and Braves. So maybe we can hope for Blake Snell to the Pittsburgh Pirates or Jordan Montgomery signing with the Cincinnati Reds or Julio Rodriguez going to the Los Angeles Dodgers in a blockbuster deal. (Just kidding, Mariners fans.)
Here's what we do know: Five of Kiley McDaniel's top 10 free agents remain unsigned, as do 10 of his top 20 and 29 of his top 50. The biggest names out there are starting pitchers Snell and Montgomery, outfielder Cody Bellinger and closer Josh Hader. Agent Scott Boras represents Snell, Montgomery and Bellinger and given Boras' willingness to sometimes wait until the start of spring training to sign his players -- see Bryce Harper and the Phillies in 2019 -- we may still have weeks of rumors to go.
Maybe we'll see more trades pop up as well, with Chicago White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease the most obvious candidate, although they are asking for a lot in return right now.
Let's go position by position and see where things stand, looking at the top players still available and some possible landing spots.
Starting pitchers
Top free agents: 1. Blake Snell, 2. Jordan Montgomery, 3. Shōta Imanaga, 4. Marcus Stroman, 5. Yariel Rodriguez, 6. Michael Lorenzen, 7. Sean Manaea, 8. Mike Clevinger, 9. Hyun Jin Ryu, 10. James Paxton, 11. Clayton Kershaw, 12. Brandon Woodruff
Possible fits: San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Angels, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, Baltimore Orioles
Snell and Montgomery are both left-handed and entering their age-31 seasons, but the similarities end there. Snell is coming off his second Cy Young Award while Montgomery is coming off a high-profile World Series run with the Texas Rangers. Snell has the better pure stuff while Montgomery has better durability and consistency. They'll probably end up getting similar contracts. Which do you prefer? Their last three seasons:
Snell: 83 GS, 436.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 125 ERA+, 2.63 SO/BB ratio, 9.5 WAR
Montgomery: 94 GS, 524.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 121 ERA+, 3.60 SO/BB ratio, 9.2 WAR
Snell had one of the strangest Cy Young seasons ever, walking 5.0 batters per nine innings but still finishing with a 2.25 ERA thanks to a .152 average allowed with runners in scoring position. That's also what happened in his other Cy Young season in 2018, but he had a 3.85 ERA across the four intervening seasons. That might be a better reflection of his true talent than his 2023 numbers so, unless he improves his control, buyer beware. Put it this way: Of the last 25 pitchers to throw at least 120 innings while walking at least 4.5 batters per nine innings, only Snell in 2023 and Francisco Liriano in 2014 had ERAs under 3.50. Snell himself issued 4.8 walks per nine innings in 2021 and posted a 4.20 ERA.
Factor in Montgomery's workload the past three seasons (30 or more starts) and he looks like the safer bet, although I also feel the narrative about his great postseason has been overhyped -- and perhaps not particularly relevant to what he might do in future postseasons. While he had two scoreless starts for the Rangers, he had two other mediocre ones and his overall numbers included 37 hits allowed in 31 innings with just 17 strikeouts. In the end, I would prefer betting on Snell's stuff for the next five or six seasons.
Imanaga, a 30-year-old lefty who had a 2.66 ERA in Japan, has until Jan. 11 to sign. He'll probably cost 60% of what Snell and Montgomery might sign for, which could make him a bargain, as he had a higher strikeout rate in 2023 than Yoshinobu Yamamoto. While he certainly has swing-and-miss stuff and walked just 24 batters in 159 innings, my concern with him is the home runs: He allowed 18, a much higher rate than the league average in Japan, in a league with far less power than MLB.
After those three, you're mostly looking at guys on one- or two-year deals. I listed two other big names at the bottom of the list in Kershaw and Woodruff, just as a reminder that they're out there. Kershaw is hoping for an August return from shoulder surgery, and he'll likely go back to the Dodgers or sign with his hometown Rangers; it will probably be a summer decision. Woodruff also had shoulder surgery and is seeking a two-year deal as he rehabs in 2024 and looks to return in 2025.
Where might the top three land? The top betting favorites for Snell are the Giants, Red Sox, Cubs and Angels. The Giants need another top starter to go alongside Logan Webb and are in a somewhat desperate position trying to catch the Dodgers (or just to chase down a wild card), so they probably should gamble on Snell's upside. Their payroll sits at about $158 million, so they still have room to make a couple big signings -- maybe one starter and one position player.
The betting favorites for Montgomery are the Red Sox, Angels, Yankees and Giants. The Red Sox might be looking to add another starter after trading Sale and Montgomery's ability to post 30 times would be a plus for a rotation that hasn't had that the past couple of seasons. The Angels have money to spend and need to replace Shohei Ohtani, although they do already have four lefties in the rotation. After losing out on Yamamoto and trading rotation depth to acquire Juan Soto, the Yankees probably need another starter as they are currently depending on bounce-back seasons from Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes.
Predictions: Snell to the Giants, Montgomery to the Yankees, Imanaga to the Angels.
My sleeper team: the Phillies. They were in on Yamamoto so they were willing to increase payroll for the right pitcher. Maybe they simply flip that money into extending Zack Wheeler before he hits free agency after 2024, but signing Montgomery feels like a Dave Dombrowski type of move. And don't rule out the Dodgers. I can't imagine them spending in the Snell/Montgomery arena, but adding one of those lower-tier veterans makes sense, especially since they might go with a six-man rotation to save on the workloads of Yamamoto (who pitched once a week in Japan), Tyler Glasnow (career high of 120 innings) and Walker Buehler (coming off Tommy John surgery). Or maybe they flip some of their pitching prospects for Cease.
Relief pitchers
Top free agents: 1. Josh Hader, 2. Jordan Hicks, 3. Robert Stephenson, 4. Aroldis Chapman, 5. Hector Neris, 6. David Robertson, 7. Matt Moore, 8. Jakob Junis, 9. Brent Suter, 10. Phil Maton
Possible fits: Rangers, Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, Angels, Red Sox, Orioles, St. Louis Cardinals, New York Mets
Hader is seeking a contract to match the five-year, $102 million deal the Mets gave Edwin Diaz last offseason and he's arguably the top closer in the game -- although one who hasn't pitched even 60 innings in any of the past three seasons and refused to make himself available to pitch in the eighth inning of a crucial late-season game for San Diego. While he locks down leads in the regular season, a contending team is really acquiring him to lock down about nine or 10 leads in October. Is that worth $100 million?
The Rangers seemed like the best fit entering the offseason, then came reports that they probably won't be expanding payroll as once expected due to concerns about their local TV revenue -- pushing them off Montgomery and perhaps Hader as well. If the price for Hader drops -- and I'm guessing it comes in below $100 million -- maybe that puts the Rangers back in. The Yankees always have a good bullpen, but a Hader-Clay Holmes back-end duo would be pretty tough. You can't discount the Phillies here either given what happened in the NLCS with Craig Kimbrel, who has since signed with the Orioles.
Predictions: The Cubs haven't done anything this offseason except hire Craig Counsell as manager. Let's give them Hader -- at least if Counsell, who managed him in Milwaukee, gives his buy-in. Hicks and Stephenson are the next tier. Hicks is a power arm and the Phillies and Dombrowski has been all-in on power relievers of late. Even though the Orioles signed Kimbrel to replace the injured Felix Bautista, Stephenson fits their price point and he went to the next level after he introduced a cutter with the Tampa Bay Rays. I'd rather have Stephenson on a three-year, $30 million contract than Hader on something close to nine figures.
Catcher
Top free agents: 1. Gary Sanchez, 2. Andrew Knizner, 3. Jacob Stallings, 4. Yasmani Grandal, 5. Austin Nola
Possible fits: Rays, Pirates, Miami Marlins, Houston Astros
Most teams have now locked in at least their top two catchers, with players like Francisco Mejia (Angels), Roberto Perez (Red Sox) and Jorge Alfaro (Cubs) relegated to signing minor league deals. Most of the free agents left are 30-something backups coming off bad offensive seasons. Sanchez is the one viable starting catcher out there.
Does that leave Sanchez and the Rays as a match? He is a player viewed as a disappointment, mostly due to his own hype after his early success at the plate with the Yankees, but he popped 19 home runs in just 240 at-bats last season and his framing metrics have been solid two years running. He's going to bring a low average and OBP and he's just one offseason removed from accepting a minor league deal with the Giants, but the Rays have only Rene Pinto on their 40-man roster. Pinto has been an up-and-down guy the past two seasons with ugly career totals of 69 strikeouts and four walks. Sanchez would be an upgrade.
Prediction: The Pirates lost Endy Rodriguez for the season but will apparently move Henry Davis back behind the plate, so he's probably their catching answer. The Marlins did sign Christian Bethancourt to go with Nick Fortes, but neither of those two hit much in 2023. The Astros have Yainer Diaz and signed Victor Caratini, but if they want Diaz to DH (and play Yordan Alvarez in left) then a third catcher makes sense. In the end, let's put Sanchez on Tampa Bay.
First base/DH
Free agents: 1. Rhys Hoskins, 2. J.D. Martinez, 3. Jorge Soler, 4. Justin Turner, 5. Joc Pederson, 6. Brandon Belt, 7. Michael Brantley, 8. Donovan Solano, 9. Carlos Santana, 10. Daniel Vogelbach, 11. C.J. Cron, 12. Garrett Cooper, 13. Joey Votto
(We can also list Bellinger here, although he's more valuable as an outfielder than a first baseman.)
Possible fits: Angels, Cubs, Mets, Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies
As usual, the market for first basemen and designated hitters has been slow going. Mitch Garver signed a two-year, $24 million deal with the Seattle Mariners and that contract probably sets a rough parameter for the top guys listed above -- Hoskins, Martinez, Soler and Turner, with perhaps variations on the length of the deals. Hoskins is the youngest of that group, but even he turns 31 in March and missed all of 2023 with a torn ACL. In theory, he's a first baseman while Martinez and Soler are strictly DHs at this point, but Hoskins was never a positive in the field and I like him best as a full-time DH and fill-in first baseman.
Belt rebounded from a poor 2022, hitting .254/.369/.490 with the Blue Jays and doing almost all of that damage against right-handers. He'll be 36 this year and he played 100 games for the first time since 2019, but it seems he can still hit. Maybe he ends up back in Toronto, which needs a DH and left-handed power, although the Jays may not be too excited about just doing the same thing as last season in bringing back both Belt and Kevin Kiermaier.
Brantley is a tough projection. He missed almost all of 2023 recovering from shoulder surgery and hit .278 with two home runs in 15 games late in the season, striking out just twice in 57 plate appearances. He didn't do much in the postseason and hasn't hit for much power in recent years, but the elite contact ability remains intact -- plus he ran a 122 OPS+ from 2020 to 2022. I'd rather bet on one of the power guys but maybe Brantley has another .300 season in him with enough doubles in the gap to make him useful.
Since many teams have holes at first base or DH, let's break down the teams listed above.
Angels: They need a new DH, they have money to spend and they're also apparently trying to contend, just like they have for the past nine seasons. They're probably in on one of the top guys here, with Martinez a decent bet to move down I-5.
Cubs: Fans are about ready to invade Wrigley Field and tear down the ivy due to the non-activity from the front office so far. The Hoskins-to-the-Cubs rumors have been there since the beginning of the offseason. Even if the Cubs re-sign Bellinger, there could be room for both.
Mets: After non-tendering Vogelbach, they've been linked to Martinez.
Marlins: The offense was bad in 2023 and that was with Soler hitting 36 home runs. Hoskins could work here as well, sharing first base and DH with Josh Bell, but we'll see if Peter Bendix, the new president of baseball operations, wants to spend money on a DH.
Brewers: They were dead last in combined 1B/DH OPS last season.
Padres: They need outfielders as well as a DH. They were 28th in 1B/DH OPS (with Jake Cronenworth dragging down the numbers as well).
Blue Jays: They needed more offense, but after losing out on Ohtani, they've instead gone the defensive route, re-signing Kiermaier and signing Isiah Kiner-Falefa to a two-year deal.
Diamondbacks: They re-signed Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and traded for Eugenio Suarez to help the offense, but GM Mike Hazen has said they're still looking for another bat. A right-handed DH makes sense.
Rockies: Charlie Blackmon is locked into DH and they'll probably run again with Elehuris Montero and/or Michael Toglia at first base, which won't work. But this is the Rockies, and they probably think those guys are good.
Nationals: They're reportedly in the hunt for a left-handed bat for the DH/1B mix, so that could include Pederson, the switch-hitting Santana or even Votto, who intends to play another season after Cincinnati bought out his final season.
Predictions: Hoskins to the Cubs, Martinez to the Diamondbacks, Soler to the Angels, Turner to the Padres, Pederson to the Blue Jays, Belt to the Brewers, Santana to the Nationals, Brantley to the Mets.
Second base/shortstop
Free agents: 1. Whit Merrifield, 2. Amed Rosario, 3. Tim Anderson, 4. Adam Frazier, 5. Enrique Hernandez, 6. Tony Kemp, 7. Elvis Andrus, 8. Luis Guillorme, 9. Brandon Crawford
Possible fits: Giants, Marlins, Mariners, Angels, Pirates
Slim pickings for teams looking to upgrade their middle infield as all these players are flawed, past their prime or in decline. Merrifield and the Blue Jays both turned down an $18 million mutual option, certainly understandable from the Blue Jays' viewpoint as Merrifield was worth just 0.7 WAR in 2023. He's a second baseman/corner outfielder these days, but he has a .308 OBP the past two seasons and his stolen base success rate has dropped from 40-of-44 in 2021 to 26-of-36 in 2023, despite new rules that made stealing easier. The Mariners have a Josh Rojas/Luis Urias/Jose Caballero combo for second and third base, but I'm not sure Merrifield projects as an improvement over those guys.
Two teams that need shortstops are the Giants and Marlins. Crawford has spent all 13 of his MLB seasons with the Giants, but they are apparently moving on after he hit .194 in 2023. The problem is prospect Marco Luciano just hasn't developed at the plate and needs at least a season of Triple-A after hitting .228 in Double-A. Rosario fits as a one-year stopgap. I'd certainly prefer him over Anderson, who had a miserable season with the White Sox. Anderson is just 30 and hit .300 the previous four seasons, but with his poor approach, he's always felt like a hitter who might fall off the table once his bat speed declined -- and that may be what happened in 2023. Plus, his range is better suited for second base these days and he might have to be willing to change positions or accept a role as a backup infielder.
Predictions: Hmm. Let's put Rosario on the Marlins given their best shortstop option right now is probably Jon Berti. How about Merrifield to the Astros? Jose Altuve could use a few more games at DH to get off his feet and Merrifield just provides depth insurance for a roster that doesn't have a lot of it. I guess that puts Anderson on the Giants, although he doesn't feel like the kind of player president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi goes for.
Third base
Free agents: 1. Matt Chapman, 2. Gio Urshela, 3. Brian Anderson, 4. Mike Moustakas
Possible fits: Giants, Cubs, Brewers, Blue Jays, Mariners, Kansas City Royals
Chapman is the best of a weak group here as guys like Evan Longoria, Josh Donaldson and Eduardo Escobar have probably reached the end of the line. Chapman has averaged 3.8 WAR the past three seasons, won another Gold Glove in 2023 and has top-line exit velocity metrics. After a hot April, however, he didn't do much damage the rest of 2023, hitting .205 with just 12 home runs the final five months. He's only 31 and has a scary strikeout rate of almost 30% over the past four seasons. His defense and walks give him a 2-win floor in value for the immediate future, but I'd be wary of giving him the $100 million-plus contract he was projected for at the start of the offseason.
Indeed, it's become increasingly difficult finding a logical home for Chapman, especially at that price point. Given that Boras is his agent, this could end up as another drawn-out signing. The Giants and Cubs are the betting favorites in Vegas and both make some sense, although both teams likely have Bellinger and/or pitching help as a higher priority. The Brewers aren't going to spend the money. The Blue Jays signed Kiner-Falefa, adding to their arsenal of utility infielders for some reason, and reportedly have interest in Urshela, which could rule out a return engagement with Chapman.
Who else needs help at third? The Nationals are apparently giving Nick Senzel a shot at third while the Mariners are going with Urias after trading Suarez. The Mets want to give Brett Baty another chance to prove himself after he struggled as a rookie. Will the Royals spend more money? Seems unlikely, but Maikel Garcia is the third baseman atop their depth chart, and he hit just four home runs in 2023; they could sign Chapman and move Garcia to second. The Detroit Tigers will probably hand third base to rookie Colt Keith -- and after the disastrous Javier Baez contract (signed by the previous front office regime), they probably don't want to wade into similar waters with another risky nine-figure contract. In the end, it feels like it's either the Giants or Cubs for Chapman, and I'll take the under on $100 million.
Prediction: Chapman to the Giants.
Outfield
Free agents: 1. Cody Bellinger, 2. Teoscar Hernandez, 3. Tommy Pham, 4. Michael A. Taylor, 5. Adam Duvall, 6. Joey Gallo, 7. Harrison Bader, 8. Robbie Grossman, 9. Aaron Hicks, 10. Eddie Rosario, 11. Randal Grichuk, 12. Ben Gamel, 13. Travis Jankowski, 14. David Peralta, 15. Austin Meadows
Possible fits: Giants, Cubs, Padres, Angels, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, Mariners
Let's just focus on Bellinger. He's the one difference-maker, at least based on his 2023 production (.307/.356/.525, 4.4 WAR), and he offers the flexibility of playing center field, right field or first base. Not that the others don't have their uses, but Hernandez may be the only other player here to get a multiyear deal (rumors are the Red Sox are interested).
Other than a return to the Cubs, the betting favorites for Bellinger are the Giants, Yankees, Padres, Mariners and Blue Jays. The Yankees feel like an awkward fit now that they've acquired Soto, Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo for the outfield, but maybe Bellinger takes over at first base for Anthony Rizzo, who is coming off the concussion that ended his season. Yes, the Yankees have improved their offense with Soto and their depth with Grisham and Verdugo. But at this point the lineup still features Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton -- who both missed over 60 games last season -- which is not exactly a reassuring proposition.
The Giants did sign Jung Hoo to play center field, which makes Bellinger a little less attractive, and the roster includes corner outfielders Michael Conforto, Mike Yastrzemski and Mitch Haniger -- not to mention first baseman Wilmer Flores was the team's best hitter in 2023. That's why I feel Chapman and a starting pitcher are the better fit for the Giants' money.
The Padres are desperate for outfielders and apparently have room to still increase payroll, but let's consider the Angels. Their outfield right now is Mike Trout (injury prone), Taylor Ward (coming off a season-ending hit by pitch in July that required facial reconstruction surgery to repair three fractures), erstwhile prospect Jo Adell and 2023 surprise Mickey Moniak (an .802 OPS but an atrocious ratio of 113 strikeouts to nine walks). You have an owner in Arte Moreno who isn't afraid to give out big contracts and who has to replace the best player in the game. They've made it clear they're trying to win, not rebuild, and Bellinger is a familiar name to fans in the Los Angeles area. It all adds up.
Prediction: Bellinger to the Angels.