Every MLB offseason evolves at its own pace, and this winter, that tempo is slow. It's not just slow for a specific subset of free agents. It's slow for the nine-figure guys, slow for outfield bats, slow for relief pitchers. It's slow enough that spring training starts in less than six weeks, and well over 100 players remain jobless.
While it's easy to blame the free agencies of Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto for gumming up the proceedings, only a handful of teams were ever realistically in the bidding for either. So while the pair's measured approaches did the market no favors, there's a far simpler explanation: Teams and players are digging in, both sides waiting to see which blinks first.
The truth is, this is normal-ish. Not every winter is like 2022-23, when 36 of the 37 players who received guarantees of $20 million or more were signed before New Year's Day -- the lone exception, Carlos Correa, who'd agreed to two deals before Jan. 1 that were nullified during the medical review. In 2021, J.T. Realmuto and DJ LeMahieu signed in late January and Trevor Bauer in February. Josh Donaldson was a mid-January deal in 2020, a year after the two best players in the class, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, stretched into February.
But executives, agents and others watching free agency unfold agree: It's rare that this many productive players are available after the calendar turns. We're into January and the reigning National League Cy Young winner, a World Series star and a 28-year-old former MVP center fielder are all unsigned. This offseason's biggest free agent splurges have also been dominated by a single team while many others have sat back. To wit:
The Los Angeles Dodgers' free agent outlay this winter: $1.043 billion.
The free agent outlay of the next 19 highest-spending teams this winter: $1.040 billion.
Then there are the four teams that haven't spent a dollar in free agency this offseason, and it's quite the mixture: the New York Yankees (who have been quite active on the trade front), Chicago Cubs, Miami Marlins and Colorado Rockies.
Excuses abound for the slow pace of free agency -- the instability of local television contracts is teams' pretext du jour -- but everyone recognizes that almost every team ultimately wants to improve, and the simplest way to do so is by signing players better than the ones currently on rosters.
So the market will move, though perhaps not with the urgency this time of year would typically suggest. Over the next 10 days, teams and agents will spend a significant amount of their bandwidth posturing in advance of the Jan. 12 arbitration-exchange date. There will be signings between now and then, yes, but the free agent deluge should arrive between Jan. 12 and the first arbitration hearing Jan. 29.
Whether it's this week or late January or even approaching spring training, we have plenty more intrigue to come and deals we'll debate. Here, after conversations with more than 25 agents, executives and other league sources, is where the hot stove season stands.
1. The Boras Four -- and 15 more
It should be no surprise that the majority of the best free agents remaining all share one common thread: Scott Boras is their agent. His willingness to wait until the calendar turns to secure deals is unmatched among his peers.
Left-handed starters Blake Snell (the aforementioned Cy Young winner) and Jordan Montgomery (the World Series star), along with center fielder Cody Bellinger (the past MVP) and Matt Chapman (a two-time Platinum Glove winner), are arguably the four most valuable free agents on the market. Combined, they could nab as much guaranteed money as all of the other unsigned players put together.
One team opposing organizations expect to sign at least one top-end Boras client: the San Francisco Giants, who pursued Ohtani and Yamamoto, only to see the Los Angeles Dodgers guarantee the pair more than $1 billion. San Francisco needs talent badly, even after the addition of free agent Jung Hoo Lee on a $113 million deal. Whether it's Chapman (San Francisco could slot him at third base and use J.D. Davis at DH), Snell (who would look mighty good in a rotation with Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Ross Stripling and rookie Kyle Harrison) or both, the Giants have the money and incentive to make a splash.
The Los Angeles Angels have been rooting around on the periphery of the high-end market since seeing Ohtani leave for the Dodgers. Even with the $76 million they owe Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, the Angels currently project a midlevel payroll -- well below the top-10 Opening Day ranking they've carried for 20 consecutive years. Considering the bereft standing of their farm system, the Angels can't rely on trades or internal promotions to keep them from avoiding fourth place in the American League West. Snell fits. So would Bellinger.
Other teams continue to lurk. The Texas Rangers want to re-sign Montgomery but don't know how Diamond Sports' bankruptcy will affect their TV deal. The Yankees would also love a reunion with Montgomery. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies both offered $300 million-plus on Yamamoto, and while neither planned to pivot to Snell or Montgomery, both are nimble enough to seize on opportunities that markets provide.
The Boston Red Sox could use either left-hander after shipping Chris Sale to the Atlanta Braves, though they're presently spending more time exploring the trade market and could be active. The San Diego Padres desperately need innings and have shaved their payroll enough by trading away Juan Soto. And while the Baltimore Orioles' $73 million payroll is comically low for a team coming off a 101-win season, the prospect of devoting $25 million-plus a year to one arm remains a longshot, with a trade the likelier outcome.
Outside of those four stars, Boras has his hands full -- 15 other free agents still unsigned, among them first baseman Rhys Hoskins, DH J.D. Martinez and a panoply of starting pitchers including left-handers Sean Manaea, Hyun-Jin Ryu and James Paxton. As is so often the case this time of year, all eyes will be on Boras.
2. Shota Imanaga's coming deadline
Shota Imanaga intentionally waited until the end of November to officially be posted by the Yokohama Bay Stars. The 30-year-old figured that between Ohtani and Yamamoto, the game's best teams would be focused elsewhere. The plan worked out even better than anticipated after the Dodgers struck and left the remainder of the suitors empty-handed.
On the heels of Ohtani's heavily deferred $700 million deal and Yamamoto's $325 million contract, executives told ESPN Imanaga is likely to reach nine figures as well. In the past, players of Imanaga's talent and production didn't sniff $100 million-plus. Perhaps his closest comparable, lefty Yusei Kikuchi, threw 1,010⅔ innings compared to Imanaga's 1,002⅔, and his 2.77 career ERA in Nippon Professional Baseball was far better than Imanaga's 3.18. Kikuchi got $56 million over four years from Seattle before the 2019 season. The rate will nearly double for Imanaga.
At this price point -- below what Snell and Montgomery expect to fetch -- Imanaga's options should be plentiful. All of the usual suspects could use more starting pitching: San Francisco, both New York teams, both Los Angeles teams, Boston. Even Philadelphia could make a play for Imanaga.
Wherever he lands, it's going to happen soon. Imanaga's 45-day posting window expires Jan. 11. His market will pick up this week, sources said, bringing another talented Japanese arm stateside.
3. Josh Hader and the rest of the bullpen arms
The sales pitch on Hader is simple: He is among the most dominant closers ever. In the past 40 years, when modern bullpen usage took root, here are Hader's ranks among the nearly 600 relievers with at least 250 innings over their first seven seasons.
Strikeouts per nine: 15.0 (2nd)
Hits per nine: 4.9 (2nd)
WHIP: 0.944 (6th)
ERA: 2.50 (13th)
FIP: 2.73 (18th)
Saves: 165 (21st)
The question now is whether Hader will reach the nine-figure threshold, a mark only Edwin Diaz has exceeded (five years, $102.5 million) among relievers, or whether he's likelier to wind up in the Aroldis Chapman (five years, $85 million) and Kenley Jansen (five years, $80 million) territory. The fact that January has arrived with no clear favorite, multiple executives said, suggests the latter is more probable.
Hader, 29, isn't the only reliever facing a slow market. At 27, right-hander Jordan Hicks is the youngest domestic free agent available and runs his fastball up to 105 mph. Following his June 2 trade to Tampa Bay, right-hander Robert Stephenson struck out 42.9% of batters he faced and walked just 5.7%, positively silly numbers. While the market for both recently started to pick up, it's hard to square the notion that the three best relievers are still available in a game that relies so much on bullpens.
Whether it's the Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Angels, Rangers, Dodgers, Chicago Cubs, St. Louis Cardinals, Houston Astros or perhaps another front office that sees the opportunity for a smart deal, teams trying to win understand how much better their bullpens will be with any of the three. And Hector Neris, Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson and others will do just fine as well.
4. The outfield/DH glut
If there's one market that's in danger of collapsing, it's veteran bats, which is surprising considering how few are available to begin with. It turns out, though, even fewer teams are actively trying to fill that hole. The ones that are include the Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, Giants, Mets, Seattle Mariners, Toronto Blue Jays, Milwaukee Brewers, Marlins and Arizona Diamondbacks, the latter of whom are targeting a DH to fill out the National League champions' lineup. That's 11 teams -- and we're about to list 12 players who could fit. Let the game of musical chairs begin.
Among those still available:
Outfielder Teoscar Hernandez: the best bat, non-Bellinger division, left on the market. The Red Sox and Dodgers continue to express interest, though the Angels could make sense. So could a return engagement in Seattle, though the Mariners' payroll constraints are choking what should've been a bountiful winter.
Outfielder/DH Jorge Soler: He whacked 36 home runs last season and opted out of the $13 million remaining on his contract with the Marlins. While he might not get three years like he did in his last free agent deal, Soler's per-year salary should jump.
DH J.D. Martinez: Here's the list of players with at least 450 plate appearances and a higher slugging percentage than Martinez in 2023: Ohtani, Corey Seager, Aaron Judge, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Yordan Álvarez, Mookie Betts. That's it. Seven All-Stars and the 36-year-old Martinez.
Third baseman/DH Justin Turner: At this point, you know what you're getting from Turner, 39. He's going to hit around .280, get on base 35% of the time, slug around .450 and can fill in at every infield position but shortstop.
First baseman Rhys Hoskins: He's been linked with the Cubs all winter after missing 2023 with a torn ACL. Hoskins is likeliest to take a one-year contract that would reestablish his value and allow him to hit free agency again at 31 and strike a long-term deal.
Outfielder/DH Joc Pederson: While his defensive deficiencies make him an ideal DH, the 31-year-old's ability to hit home runs and draw walks will maintain his value long past the one-year deal he's expected to procure.
First baseman Brandon Belt: In his first season in Toronto after a dozen years with San Francisco, Belt slashed .254/.369/.490 with 19 home runs in 103 games. Whether it's playing first every day, DHing or some combination of the two, his production and left-handedness should afford him the opportunity.
Outfielders Harrison Bader, Michael A. Taylor, Tommy Pham, Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario: Bader and Taylor are at the top of this list because they're top-notch center fielders. Duvall can play there, too, while Pham and Rosario are veterans whose postseason numbers exceed their regular-season performance.
5. The trade market
Coming into the winter, teams scared off by the prices on high-end starting pitchers had a fallback plan: the trade market. Among the available arms, after all, were Tampa Bay's Tyler Glasnow, Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes, the Chicago White Sox's Dylan Cease and the Cleveland Guardians' Shane Bieber.
Two months later, Glasnow is the only one from that list who has moved, along with the surprising Sale deal. The others remain with their teams, and even after Miami has joined the list of teams considering moving a starter, the theoretically ample trade market has so far been a dud.
Cease, who comes with two years of team control, is still likely to move, sources said. Chicago's suitors certainly have winnowed -- the Cincinnati Reds, a team on Cease early, fortified itself through free agency -- and there's an argument to be made that the White Sox can rebuild his value after a disappointing 2023 season and collect even more in a 2024 trade deadline deal than they can today.
The chances of either Burnes and Bieber getting dealt in the coming months, though, are dwindling. They share a pair of traits that dampen their value: both are free agents at the end of the upcoming season and play for teams planning on contending for division titles.
That's why Jesus Luzardo's name continues to percolate among teams interested in a starter. The 26-year-old left-hander posted a 3.58 ERA in 178⅔ innings and struck out 208, nearly four times as many batters as he walked. Miami, under new general manager Peter Bendix, is in listening mode on all of its players except wunderkind right-hander Eury Perez. Luzardo is almost certainly the most valuable among them, even more than NL batting champion Luis Arraez, and whether it's the Red Sox, Orioles or either of the New York teams, Luzardo would look mighty good in their rotation for the next three seasons.
6. The other starting pitchers
Right-hander Marcus Stroman is in a category of his own, below the nine-figure bunch but far ahead of his other peers. Stroman declined a $21 million player option, and after a rough second half, he still could grab a high annual number Lucas Giolito-style and hope a team separates itself with the years. Another in a category of one: right-hander Yariel Rodriguez, a 26-year-old Cuban who has spent three years as a lockdown reliever in Japan but is seen by some teams as a ready-made starter.
The remainder of the starters are looking at one-year deals with hopes of getting a second season: a Boras trio of lefties (Manaea, Ryu, Paxton) and right-handers Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger. The wild card of the bunch: right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who was non-tendered by Milwaukee after undergoing shoulder surgery that will sideline him all of 2024. Woodruff, 30, could sign a two-year deal a la Tyler Mahle, who got two years and $22 million from Texas coming off Tommy John surgery and won't return until at earliest the middle of 2024.
In addition to the teams in on the elite starters, the Cubs, Marlins, Tampa Bay Rays and Pittsburgh Pirates could dabble in the next group. And in a winter like this one -- tactical to some, straight-up boring to others -- just being in the mix for players imbues hope. Whether your team is looking for one of the remaining elite players or just a short-term starter to solidify its roster, a disappointing winter can turn glorious with just one signing. The hot stove is going to heat up eventually. It always does.