NASHVILLE, Tenn. -- Shohei Ohtani wasn't in attendance this week, and yet it seemed like he was all anyone could talk about at the 2023 winter meetings anyway.
The stealthiness with which Ohtani's free agency has unfolded as he prepares to sign a contract worth upward of $600 million has spawned all manner of questions. Among the most popular topics of conversation at the Gaylord Opryland Resort, where the meetings were held: When is Ohtani signing, where will he end up, what is he going to get paid and, perhaps most oft-repeated, why won't he tell us the name of his dog?
The sheer number of unanswered questions -- is his dog, like, named after one of the teams he's deciding among? -- cast an unmistakable shadow and continued to illustrate his invisible grip over the industry. For three days, Ohtani's looming free agency stopped up almost any free agent movement, leaving the meetings on the verge of being a complete dud.
Before the New York Yankees and San Diego Padres swooped in to save the day with the fascinating Juan Soto blockbuster, the previous newsiest moment had been Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts committing the grievous sin of publicly acknowledging that the most moneyed team in baseball had met with Ohtani, who's bound to be the most moneyed athlete in North American professional sports history. The obviousness of it didn't take away from it prompting questions about whether it might hurt Los Angeles' chances with Ohtani, a narrative that has taken on increasing resonance with Toronto's emergence as a real player.
Ohtani's decision, sources said, is expected soon. And whether it's the Toronto Blue Jays or Los Angeles Dodgers or San Francisco Giants or any of the other teams that have courted Ohtani, his choice will reverberate around the sport. In the same way that he has clogged the market, Ohtani's signing -- particularly if it's with Toronto -- will squirt lighter fluid on a hot stove season that has so far had the fervor of a couple of twigs set aflame.
Before the Yankees acquired Soto, the week's headliners had included such signings as Eduardo Rodriguez going to Arizona, Jeimer Candelario to Cincinnati, Erick Fedde to the Chicago White Sox and Craig Kimbrel to Baltimore. There were also a couple of other interesting trades -- Jarred Kelenic from Seattle to Atlanta, Alex Verdugo from Boston to the New York Yankees -- but nothing on the level of the Yankees poaching one of the best left-handed hitters in the world.
And even that move is tied to Ohtani taking his sweet time. Padres general manager A.J. Preller understood the effect of Ohtani's looming decision on his market and leveraged it expertly. The teams involved in the Ohtani sweepstakes, sources said, have remained terminally in the dark, paralyzing their potential pivots from him. Soto is an Ohtani-caliber hitter, the 1b to Ohtani's 1a with the bat, and for the Blue Jays or Giants or Chicago Cubs, getting Soto would at least salve the wound of losing out on Ohtani.
Remember, this is the offseason of the big spenders. Every high-dollar team is whale hunting. The market for Soto, then, was primed to get a whole lot bigger once Ohtani signed. The Yankees, recognizing this, acceded to the hefty price Preller set: three big league-ready starters in Michael King, Jhony Brito and Randy Vasquez, another right-handed starter in Drew Thorpe who could ascend to MLB this season and catcher Kyle Higashioka, a strong complement to Luis Campusano who allowed the Padres to avoid delving into a free agent market with a dearth of backstops. The Yankees had always matched up with the Padres far better than the other teams; even still, the possibility of an Ohtani runner-up swooping in with a desperate offer for Soto loomed large enough in New York's mind to accelerate talks and eventually close a deal.
With Soto moved and Ohtani's decision close, we could be approaching the end of the logjam -- for bats, at least. It won't take long after Ohtani's announcement to see Jung Hoo Lee and Teoscar Hernandez and Mitch Garver and Jorge Soler and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. sign their deals. There still remains an impediment on the pitching side, though -- someone with whom Ohtani, incidentally, is very familiar.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, his World Baseball Classic teammate, is expected to make his own decision in the next two weeks, according to executives interested in signing him. The uber-athletic right-hander who has won three consecutive MVP awards in Nippon Professional Baseball is just 25 years old and clearly the best free agent after Ohtani. The price tag is only growing, with the Yankees, Dodgers and New York Mets all frothing to sign him. At this point, the notion that the outlay on Yamamoto is likely to exceed $300 million, including the posting fee paid to his Japanese team, the Orix Buffaloes, grows stronger by the day.
Movement in the trade market for top-of-the-rotation starters might come before Yamamoto is off the board, but it makes sense for teams with pitchers they can deal to wait in hopes that the losers for his services are on tilt and willing to pony up more to rescue the winter. Teams have made offers for Tyler Glasnow, the right-hander owed $25 million this season before he hits free agency, and White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease with no traction toward a deal yet, sources said. Perhaps Cleveland will also move ace Shane Bieber or closer Emmanuel Clase. And Milwaukee continues to gauge the market for right-hander Corbin Burnes, who, like Glasnow and Bieber, will hit free agency after the 2024 season.
Out on the free agent market, plenty of talent still remains for the taking -- and, executives believe, those players are also on the post-Ohtani/Yamamoto timeline. Two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Outfielder Cody Bellinger. Postseason standout Jordan Montgomery. Lockdown closer Josh Hader. Another Japanese star, left-hander Shota Imanaga. The durable Lucas Giolito.
Of the highest-revenue teams, only the Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies -- with the re-signing of Aaron Nola -- have actually locked down a top-end talent this winter. The Dodgers, the Mets, the Giants, the Red Sox, the Cubs -- they're all in a holding pattern, at the mercy of the two stars whose decisions are the axis around which the game spins.
All of it will play out soon enough, and the fallout from a winter meetings that was salvaged only by an eleventh-hour trade will fade away amid the rest of the offseason machinations. The lingering questions will be answered soon enough. If we're lucky, we might even learn Ohtani's dog's name.