The division series round of the baseball playoffs is usually like the opening act in a concert -- sometimes-forgettable performers killing time before the headliners arrive. But not this year.
The Philadelphia Phillies-Atlanta Braves series might well turn out to be the most compelling matchup of this postseason, with arguably the two best teams in the playoffs. These are two heavyweight lineups -- this is MLB's Ali-Frazier. Meanwhile, if you're looking for a David vs. Goliath storyline, that would be the Arizona Diamondbacks vs. the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the American League, you've got Carlos Correa, his generation's version of Reggie Jackson -- not to mention Derek Jeter, because of his ease playing on the biggest stage -- facing his former teammates, the Houston Astros, who are only 11 wins away from becoming the first team since the 1998-2000 New York Yankees to win back-to-back titles. And then there's the Baltimore Orioles -- the AL's best and youngest contender -- trying to fend off a bunch of experienced Texas Rangers and their Hall of Fame manager, Bruce Bochy.
These are the most compelling matchups within the division series.
The Braves vs. late-season pitching erosion
We know all about the Braves' short journey into and out of the 2022 playoffs. Spencer Strider, the Game 1 starter in the National League Division Series, was dealing with a leg issue. Max Fried was ailing. Charlie Morton was worn down. Those three accomplished professionals combined for 7⅔ innings in three starts, with 15 hits and 14 runs allowed. Against the Phillies.
As the Braves start this postseason, Strider is coming off three regular-season starts which were, by his standard of dominance, fairly mediocre (10 earned runs in 17⅓ innings). Fried has been dealing with a blister problem and did not make an appearance in the last 10 days of the regular season. Morton walked off the mound after one inning on Sept. 22 with a finger problem and is not expected to pitch until the next round of the postseason, if the Braves survive. At the very least, the Braves will need Bryce Elder or some other starter to contribute meaningful innings against the Phillies' ridiculously balanced, powerful lineup -- one that is so similar in its potency to Atlanta's.
Jose Abreu vs. Rocco Baldelli
Abreu was generally a disappointment in his first year with Houston after signing a three-year, $58.5 million deal. He didn't hit his first Astros homer until his 51st game, and he finished the year with a .237 batting average, a .296 on-base percentage and a .383 slugging percentage, shockingly low numbers considering the great expectation that Abreu was going to fill the Crawford Boxes. As usual, Abreu also hit into more than his share of double plays -- 16 -- no surprise, as a right-handed hitter who doesn't run well. (Abreu led the majors in hitting into a double play in three consecutive seasons, 2019-2021.) All of this means that Twins manager Rocco Baldelli will be more than a little tempted to pitch around the guy hitting in front of Abreu -- and typically, that's one of the Astros' better left-handed hitters, Kyle Tucker or Yordan Alvarez -- to set up a possible double play.
But Baldelli will also be well aware of this: Abreu finished much better than he started. He spent some time on the injured list in mid-August with lower back soreness, and after that, he seemed to back off the relentless daily preparation that Astros staffers thought wore him down early. Abreu drove in 34 runs in his last 31 games, with an improved .248/.315/.530 slash line. "He's been more like the Abreu of old," said one front office executive. And, as rival evaluators have noted, with a runner at third base and less than two outs, Abreu seems to have a knack for getting a run home.
The Twins, by the way, issued 16 intentional walks during the season, tied for 12th most in MLB -- but eight of those were within the regular season's extra-inning ghost-runner context that is now obsolete.
Trea Turner vs. impatience
When Turner was with the Dodgers, the staff tried to convince him of the potential benefits of being even just a little more patient. It didn't work: He was and is a dynamic offensive player because he attacks, and he never really backed away from that philosophy. In the wild-card series, he wrecked the Marlins' pitching over two games.
But you would assume that the Braves' pitchers and catchers will try to lure Turner out of the strike zone just a little bit more in an effort to slow him down. Over the last 48 games of the season -- after the Phillies' fans encouraged him with a standing ovation on Aug. 4 -- Turner blistered opposing pitching for a .337 average, with 14 doubles, a triple and 16 home runs. It'll be interesting to see if the Braves make more of a concerted effort to keep the ball out of the zone against an excellent hitter who has been doing a lot of damage lately. Their best bet might be to see if he'll chase pitches he can't hit.
Another young infielder on the opposite side of the bracket, Gunnar Henderson, is very similar to Turner in his approach: He's going to swing -- and he might do damage, but he's going to swing. In the regular season, Henderson compiled 159 strikeouts in 150 games, with 56 walks and 66 extra-base hits. He'll face a similar dilemma to Turner, and time will tell whether Texas' veteran staff gives him much to pick over.
The legend of Evan Carter vs. the next stage
All that Evan Carter knows about major league pitching is that he dominates it. In 62 regular-season at-bats, he averaged 4.48 pitches per plate appearance, patiently waiting for the inevitable meatball that he hammered (he had an OPS of 1.059). Then, in two playoff games against the Rays, Carter went 3-for-4 with three walks. Baseball might be a game of failure, but the rookie Carter has experienced none of it yet, and he's playing with undented confidence right now, wearing Josh Hamilton's old No. 32 and swinging free and easy like Hamilton did in the Home Run Derby.
It'll be up to the Orioles to tame him with an adept scouting report, some well-executed sequencing and placement. Baltimore already has enough of a challenge in dealing with Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and the powerful Texas lineup, and it needs to find a way to neutralize a 21-year-old playing like some sort of hybrid version of Shane Spencer and Mike Trout.
Framber Valdez vs. the quality of his sinker
Earlier in his career, Valdez sported arguably the game's nastiest sinker, and it was rare to see any team consistently lift a ball against him. But this year, his stuff is very different, as seems to be his feel for his sinker. His ratio of ground balls to fly balls plummeted from 4.16-to-1 to 2.13-1, and he has allowed more homers than ever. With his sinker less effective, Valdez has relied on his other pitches more and more -- more cutters, more curveballs, more changeups.
And he can still be very effective. Little more than a month ago, he no-hit the Detroit Tigers for seven innings. But he has been inconsistent as he works to rediscover his great sinker, trying to juggle his pitch mix. Valdez might be the biggest X factor in the Astros' quest for a repeat because when his sinker is at its best, he's probably among the most dominant starters in the game. When he has to turn to his other pitches, he's much more vulnerable.
"He's really good at pitching with emotion," said one scout, "and if he can use that and get that hard cutter going for him, it'll make his fastball better."
The Orioles' hitters vs. Bochy's bullpen management
There is a lot of stuff that Texas manager Bruce Bochy does not do well. He probably makes the slowest pitching changes in the world, when you factor in the time required for him to amble to the mound. He was never a good hitter in his time as a major league catcher; he'd be the first to tell you that his 1.000 batting average in the World Series (1-for-1) is deceiving. Because of his size 8 head, baseball caps don't look as good on him as they might on Dodgers manager Dave Roberts.
But the guy can really, really run a bullpen. There are few better in picking the best matchups, having the right reliever in the right spot -- whether it's a lefty vs. a lefty or an opponent who calls for a sinkerballer -- and he's pretty good about providing his relievers with the requisite rest. The Orioles' hitters could still get the job done, and of course even the perfect pick of reliever can fail to execute. But Bochy has shown time and again that he is a master in handling a relief corps in the biggest games. In his time as manager of the Giants, San Francisco's bullpen generated a 2.53 ERA in playoff and World Series games, and in the very small sample size of this postseason, the Rangers' relievers have mustered four scoreless innings.
Carlos Correa's megawatt stardom vs. the Astros
The former Astros shortstop is the closest thing his generation has to Reggie Jackson or Derek Jeter -- someone who is not only comfortable playing on the biggest stage, but someone who consistently thrives, in the apparent belief that he will find a way to prevail. Correa had missed a couple of weeks because of plantar fasciitis, and yet against the Blue Jays, there he was getting big hits, making big plays, even calling a pivotal pickoff play from shortstop. Jose Altuve, another great player and Correa's former double play partner, has always fretted about performing in big moments. Correa appears to fret about nothing in October games. Correa has played 81 games in the postseason -- the equivalent of half of a regular season -- and in those, he has mashed 18 homers and driven in 60 runs, with an .851 OPS.
Now he faces the Astros, his former team, as the leader of a group of young players -- a perfect setting for someone with that postseason gene. Houston manager Dusty Baker told reporters the other day that this series isn't about the Astros vs. Correa, but in some ways, it is, because if the Twins are to upset Houston, Correa will presumably play a major role in that. It'll be interesting to see whether Baker chooses to pitch around Correa in a big moment or ask his relievers to go after the Twins' shortstop.
Corbin Carroll vs. the Dodgers' army of lefties
The D-backs rookie conquered the regular season -- he's the presumptive favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year, and he'll finish with a lot of top-10 votes for MVP -- and he was unfazed by the Brewers' pitching or home crowd in the first round of this year's playoffs. But during the regular season, the left-handed-hitting Carroll did show some vulnerability against left-handed pitching -- more specifically, he hit for not nearly as much power against lefties as he did righties, posting a .382 SLG vs. lefties, 170 points lower than against right-handed pitchers.
You'd assume, then, that Dodgers manager Dave Roberts will roll out his lefty relievers against Carroll -- and he's got a lot of them: Caleb Ferguson, Victor Gonzalez, Alex Vesia, Ryan Yarbrough. And in Game 1, they'll follow lefty Clayton Kershaw.
Of course, even if Roberts deploys lefties, there's no guarantee of success. Against Kershaw in his career, Carroll is 4-for-7 with two homers. The D-backs rookie is that good.
The closers vs. the moment
One evaluator noted the other day that none of the remaining playoff teams has a Mariano Rivera-like closer -- someone who almost never blows a save, and who, if he does, quickly rebounds to dominate in his next outing. All of the current closers seem to bear some vulnerability, whether it's the way Craig Kimbrel's control seems to abandon him from time to time, or how Raisel Iglesias doesn't miss as many bats as he once did. Ryan Pressly of the Astros was overpowering last year as Houston won the World Series; this year, he allowed twice as many homers as he did in 2022.
Clayton Kershaw vs. Clayton Kershaw's body
Kershaw should be voted into the Hall of Fame unanimously someday, as arguably the most dominant regular-season pitcher of all time. Kershaw has evolved as a pitcher through the years, adapting to his diminished velocity. He has had a lot of accomplished teammates in the rotation, from Zack Greinke to Walker Buehler, and yet Kershaw has consistently been the Dodgers' de facto ace.
But he's 35 now and has been plagued by all kinds of physical problems in recent years -- his back, hip, elbow and, maybe for the first time, shoulder issues. More and more often, those physical problems manifest, and with so many other starters injured (Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin, Buehler) or simply unavailable (Julio Urias, who is being investigated by MLB under the sport's domestic violence policy), it would be crushing to the L.A. staff for Kershaw to be compromised. This is arguably the worst Dodgers rotation since the team moved to Los Angeles, and while that will be mitigated by a deep and talented bullpen, L.A. needs Kershaw at his best if the Dodgers are to make a deep run.
If Kershaw gets hurt during this postseason, you wonder if that'll factor into what has become an annual decision about whether to continue in the majors.