<
>

MLB Playoffs 2023: Are Braves, Dodgers, Astros on upset watch?

Jeff Robinson/Icon Sportswire

This year, MLB's wild-card round wasn't really that wild. As we say so often, anything can happen in a short series, even four of them -- and so four sweeps is what we got.

Now, before we've even settled into our seats, we're getting ready for the division series. And with the matchups set, it's time to consider the viewpoints of the teams who were watching along with the rest of us. What did they see that might give them pause? What might have them licking their chops?

Let's assess.


Atlanta Braves

Opponent: Philadelphia Phillies

The Braves won 104 games, splitting those victories between home (52) and away (52). In other words, they dominated wherever they played. They scored 41 more runs than any other team, tied the single-season home run record (307) and easily posted the majors' best run differential.

All of this is to underscore the obvious, which is that the Braves were baseball's best team during the season and that stature became clear pretty early in the campaign. And, as the Phillies proved last season, none of that matters all that much now.

Playoff series are about moments, matchups and momentum. You might have some agency in leveraging matchups, but moment outcomes are subject to the whims of fate -- and momentum is something that can be identified only after it comes into existence.

This promises to be an evenly matched series between two high-octane teams -- and when you start pitting these rosters against each other, there are as many reasons to pick the Phillies as the Braves.

The rotation comparison is pretty much a wash, assuming that postseason wizard Charlie Morton isn't part of the mix for Atlanta. It might even swing the Phillies' way should the blister problems Max Fried has been dealing with limit his innings or effectiveness, and when you consider that, in a five-game scenario, Zack Wheeler should get two starts for Philly.

Obviously the Braves have the edge in hitting. But since the trade deadline, the Phillies have matched them blow for blow. That is a literal statement: Atlanta and Philadelphia both hit 107 homers since Aug. 1, 15 more than any other team. Atlanta led the majors in runs during that time frame (6.26) -- but the Phillies were second (5.75).

As the teams are currently constituted, Atlanta's edge on offense is smaller against the Phillies than any other team.

If that stays true in the National League Division Series, things might very well come down to the bullpens. The Phillies' bullpen has been better post-deadline (3.17 ERA versus Atlanta's 4.06) and features layers of hard throwers with swing-and-miss stuff, lefties and righties alike.

The Braves are the favorites to win it all, but this is a tight matchup, and after the Phillies knocked out favored Atlanta in the NLDS last season, the intensity of the rematch is going to be memorable.

Atlanta's concern level: Buckle up.


Los Angeles Dodgers

Opponent: Arizona Diamondbacks

Chase Field can sometimes feel like Dodger Stadium West because of the influx of blue-clad fans streaming into downtown Phoenix when L.A. is in town. This year, though, Arizona fans have to be jazzed about a team that rose from a kind of fingers-crossed sleeper status in spring training to a freshly emerged contender.

The Dodgers are always contenders. These clubs met in the 2017 NLDS, the only time they've met in the playoffs, and L.A. won in a sweep. That was the Dodgers' fifth straight trip to the playoffs, a streak that is now at 11. Meanwhile, Arizona is back in the postseason for the first time since then.

This is all to say that the Dodgers are baseball old money and these Diamondbacks are nouveau riche. That, as much as anything, makes this a compelling matchup.

Right now, the Diamondbacks can't match the name recognition of the Dodgers -- or the production that matches the reputations, especially when it comes to Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. But they very well might have one player of that caliber in Corbin Carroll -- let's give that notion a couple of years -- and are bursting with athleticism.

The Dodgers could actually have the less experienced rotation in the matchup, at least once you get past Clayton Kershaw. (And if Lance Lynn is left off the roster.) Both clubs will feature rookie starters (let's see a Bobby Miller-Brandon Pfaadt matchup!) but L.A. doesn't have a healthy one-two like Arizona's Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.

The Arizona bullpen has really come together during the stretch run of the season and during its wild-card win over Milwaukee. But the Dodgers' bullpen is deep, dominant and interchangeable with more than enough high-quality arms if the makeshift rotation doesn't get deep into games.

The Diamondbacks are a youthful, swaggering bunch, and you can almost imagine a series in which they run the Dodgers off the field. But as established and professional as the Dodgers are, they are also just really freaking good.

Los Angeles' concern level: Optimistic, but they've seen enough of to be wary of these D-backs


Baltimore Orioles

Opponent: Texas Rangers

However tempted you are to poke holes in the Orioles' dossier, it's important to keep the bottom line at the forefront: This is a really good team that won 101 games this season. The Orioles had baseball's third-best winning percentage before the All-Star break and second-best after it. Baltimore might be a new bully on the MLB block, but it is a bully nonetheless.

The Orioles' pitching staff evolved gradually over the course of the season, a transition that accelerated with the season-ending elbow injury suffered by star closer Felix Bautista. Early in the season, the Orioles' bullpen, led by Bautista and breakout star Yennier Cano, was the differentiator. It hasn't been as dependable of late, though it hasn't fallen apart. Cano has dropped off some -- he almost had to -- and the Orioles never know what they'll get out of Shintaro Fujinami, who we might not see in the playoffs. Manager Brandon Hyde has gotten by via the fine art of mixing and matching in the late innings without Bautista.

Replacing the bullpen as the difference-maker by the end of the season was the Baltimore rotation, which had become a strength even though the deadline acquisition of Jack Flaherty didn't pay dividends. Kyle Bradish has been terrific. Grayson Rodriguez overcame early struggles and now looks like the star he was supposed to be. Suddenly, it looks like Baltimore's rotation stacks up very well with its potential opponents in the AL bracket.

Meanwhile, Texas, after limping to the finish line, suddenly looks like the team that was running roughshod over the AL during the first half of the season. The Rangers' rotation has been ravaged by injuries, and the bullpen has often looked like it was running on fumes. But it all resets to zero when the playoffs begin, and Texas was about as stingy as it gets in its romp over Tampa Bay.

The Rangers have been streaky all season -- and reading too much into recent trends can bite you at playoff time -- but there are some really positive things happening for Bruce Bochy's club, which enters the American League Division Series with plenty of momentum.

In the rotation, Jordan Montgomery has been dealing. Who knows -- maybe he'll be the Texas version of Madison Bumgarner for Bochy. Nathan Eovaldi had struggled as he ramped up from a second-half injury, then, all of a sudden in Game 2 against the Rays, he looked like the pitcher who was shaping up as a Cy Young front-runner before he was injured.

In the lineup, rookie Evan Carter looks like a star, and Josh Jung has bounced back from a thumb injury and has thrived so far in the postseason crucible. Just like that, a Texas lineup that got shorter and shorter as the season progressed suddenly again has threats from 1 to 9. And at the back of the bullpen, Aroldis Chapman and Jose LeClerc appear to be on point, and that simplifies Bochy's task of bridging from the starters to the late innings a great deal.

Texas might have barely survived the regular season, but, now that it has, it is very much embracing its postseason opportunity. It's not just that the Rangers beat the Rays handily -- that's only two games -- but more that a number of players who had been struggling with production and/or health appear to be in a good place.

The Orioles -- the team in this matchup that won 101 games -- have no reason to fear anybody. But the battered Texas team we saw late in the regular season is not what they are going to see in the ALDS.

Baltimore's concern level: Confident, but taking nothing for granted.


Houston Astros

Opponent: Minnesota Twins

And here we are again. It took until the last day of the regular season, but the Astros are back in the playoffs, once again winners of the AL West and once again watching the wild-card round with a sense of detached bemusement.

This particular path to the playoffs was more obstacle-filled than any during this long run of Houston success. Yet, none of it matters now. These are the Astros, they are in the second round, and those things being the case, Houston's track record marks it as the favorite in every postseason series it is going to play.

By skipping the wild-card round, the Astros have the luxury of lining up a well-rested Justin Verlander in Game 1, and if the series goes long, he'll be ready to go for a decisive fifth game. Framber Valdez will go in the second game for his first action since Sept. 27. All of Houston's starters will have Dusty Baker's vicious bullpen working behind them.

Like the Astros, Minnesota has a clear-cut top two in Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray, and a high-quality No. 3, Joe Ryan (the Astros have postseason-tested Cristian Javier in that role). In the rotation battle, Verlander's presence aside, there isn't much to separate these teams.

The battle of offenses is interesting because the Astros' edge in bottom-line production is small and both teams have top-10 attacks. But they go at it very differently, with Houston retaining the more well-balanced lineup with more top-to-bottom contact. (And the Astros have Yordan Alvarez.)

The Twins are more of a take-and-rake team, and that approach often works very well in the postseason. Getting Royce Lewis back in the lineup has been a major boost. Minnesota ranked third in the majors in homer percentage during the season but was in the middle of the pack in long balls from righties. It's not that the Twins' righties lack power but more of a roster composition issue, and that might come into play at Minute Maid Park, with its inviting Crawford Boxes. Of course, Minnesota's lefty swingers tied Atlanta for the most opposite-field dingers (17) -- so maybe this will work out well.

The Twins are a very good team, but it's really hard to do a position by position, unit by unit, or skill by skill comparison and really point to one obvious area in which they have a decided advantage. When you get into soft factors like postseason track record and the fact that the Astros are hyperconfident and such, there isn't any clear reason you'd pick against Houston.

Maybe that underdog status, in the end, will be the Twins' secret weapon.

Houston's concern level: None. This team is way past being concerned about anything.