After last year's attempt at using a combination of front-facing and underlying numbers to predict a World Series winner, we are back with a tweaked formula in hopes of better results.
We used eight categories last time: home runs, productive contact, top-of-the-order stars, baserunning, big-three starting pitching, high-strikeout bullpen, up-the-middle defense and manager. Gone this year are two subjective categories -- stars and managers -- as well as baserunning. Even though stolen bases have increased -- they're at 0.56 per playoff game compared to 0.425 last year -- among the remaining teams, only Arizona, Philadelphia and Atlanta are real threats to run.
Instead, we've added two purely numbers-driven categories: clutchness and two-strike aptitude on the offensive side, working counts on the pitchers' side. And in that vein, no longer are teams receiving points based on rankings against the other playoff squads. They'll be judged compared to the entirety of Major League Baseball and, based on those numbers, assigned points.
Off the charts (10 points): A true outlier
Elite (8 points): Well above-average
Good (6 points): Slightly above-average
Below-average (4 points): Shockingly, this means below-average
Problematic (2 points): A potential issue
At the end, all the points will be totaled and the team with the most points will be the favorite. So let's get to it. We'll start with the bats -- and the most telling category of all.
THE LINEUP
Home run power
When a team outhomers its opponent in the postseason, it wins 86% of the time. As Joe Sheehan said: Ball go far, team go far. It's no wonder, then, this category comes first.
Off the charts
1. Braves: Atlanta tied a major league record with 307 home runs. That's 58 more than the next-best team, the Dodgers, whose homers lagged in September. The Braves continued to crush, leading MLB with 54 homers in the past month.
Elite
2. Rangers: Texas led the AL with 233 home runs -- and with Josh Jung, Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim healthy, plus uber-talented rookie Evan Carter holding down the No. 9 hole, its lineup is positively frightening.
3. Phillies: Philadelphia's offense found itself in September, walloping 48 home runs, third behind the Braves and Rangers. The clearest path to the NLCS is through outhomering top-seeded Atlanta.
4. Dodgers
5. Twins: Tied for the AL lead with Texas but fifth in the postseason? It speaks not only to the abundance of power this October but Minnesota's depth. A dozen Twins have double-digit home runs, which tends to play better in the regular season than the postseason.
6. Astros
Below-average
7. Orioles
Problematic
8. Diamondbacks: How did Arizona upset the NL Central champion Brewers in the wild-card series? Arizona hit four home runs, the most in the first round. Still, it was rather uncharacteristic of the D-backs, whose 166 home runs this year ranked 22nd in MLB. Perhaps Arizona can get away with not hitting home runs against Los Angeles because Dodgers catcher Will Smith is vulnerable and the Diamondbacks are the second-best base-stealing team in MLB. But to get beyond the division series, they'll eventually need to hit the ball over the fence.
Productive contact
It's one thing to mash the ball. It's something entirely different to mash without striking out. The best measure of this is a simple formula: slugging percentage divided by strikeout percentage. There's a familiar name on top.
Off the charts
1. Braves: Atlanta's slugging percentage of .501 is the highest in baseball history. Higher than the 1927 Yankees, the 1953 Dodgers, the 1976 Reds, the 1997 Mariners and every other historically great offense. Compound that with a strikeout rate of 20.6% this season, the fifth lowest in MLB, and it's no wonder Atlanta is in position to write itself into the annals.
Elite
2. Astros: The Astros are under a 20% strikeout rate for the seventh consecutive season. They reached the ALCS in the previous six. These two things are very related.
3. Dodgers: It helps when your best player slugs .579 and strikes out 15.4% of the time and your second-best player slugs .567 and punches out 16.6%. Just another reason Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman will appear on every MVP ballot this year.
Good
4. Rangers
5. Diamondbacks
Below-average
6. Orioles
7. Phillies: There's a lot of swing-and-miss here. Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, J.T. Realmuto and Johan Rojas all were over 25% during the season. Even though they outhomered the Astros in the 2022 World Series, the Philadelphia Phillies struck out in 32.9% of plate appearances and lost in six games.
Problematic
8. Twins: The Twins' 26.6% strikeout rate was the worst in baseball, and while they can clearly knock the ball around the park, punching out more than a quarter of the time could be too big a flaw when the pitching keeps improving round by round.
Clutchness
This is merely a look at which teams have thrived in the most difficult situations: high-leverage spots from the seventh inning and beyond. Additionally, because the sample of such situations isn't enormous -- from 256 plate appearances (Baltimore) to 458 (Minnesota) -- we've included a second element: weighted on-base average with runners in scoring position.
Elite
1. Orioles: The Orioles have the second-best wOBA in high-leverage situations and the best wOBA with RISP. While they are not off the charts -- the numbers are too close to their competitors' -- it's easy to see why they're a fantastic 30-16 in one-run games: they habitually rise to the occasion.
2. Braves: Yup, good at this, too. The best high-leverage wOBA; fifth-best with RISP.
Good
3. Astros
4. Diamondbacks: While the Diamondbacks are a bottom-half team with RISP, they excel in hairy situations. They're very difficult to strike out. And they've got the fourth-highest wOBA among all teams in high leverage.
5. Twins
6. Phillies
Below-average
7. Dodgers
8. Rangers: Look, the Rangers were in high-leverage situations fewer times than only the Dodgers, so perhaps unfamiliarity bred unease. But a .303 slugging percentage in 287 plate appearances is grimy. The only teams with less pop: the Royals and Padres. Considering that in their other 5,858 plate appearances, the Rangers had the second-best slugging percentage in the big leagues at .459, perhaps this is just a fluke. It's worth keeping an eye on, though. Because in the biggest at-bats this year, Rangers hitters have folded more often than not.
Two-strike aptitude
Hitting with two strikes is incredibly difficult. And considering how good the remaining teams are compared with their peers, perhaps this is a category worth paying more attention to in the coming years. It could become a key indicator to which teams have the best chances at advancing in the playoffs. This season, the top six teams in this category made the postseason, and five remain.
Elite
1. Braves: Surely you wouldn't be surprised to learn that the best two-strike hitter in MLB this season was Ronald Acuña Jr., who batted .276/.385/.441 with 12 home runs. His teammate Matt Olson hit a major-league-best 20 two-strike homers. As a team, Atlanta hit 90 homers with a pair of strikes, 13 more than anyone else. They are almost off-the-charts good here, too.
2. Rangers
3. Dodgers: Similarly, it should not come as a shock to know that the second-best two-strike hitter in MLB this season was Mookie Betts, who batted .234/.360/.435 with 11 home runs.
4. Astros: The Astros so far: elite, elite, borderline elite, elite. That is the sign of a good offense, and with Kyle Tucker the third-best two-strike hitter behind Acuña and Betts, plus Alex Bregman and Yordan Álvarez in the top 20, it's clear to see why navigating Houston's lineup proves so difficult annually.
5. Diamondbacks: The Diamondbacks know what they are. They control the strike zone. They make contact. They run without fear. They are chaos. And there is no more frustrating chaos for a pitcher than two-strike chaos.
Good
6. Orioles
7. Phillies
Problematic
8. Twins: The Twin with the highest-ranked wOBA with two strikes among players with 100 plate appearances is Donovan Solano, who ranks 123rd. When they get to two strikes, Twins hitters punch out 48.3% of the time. Opposing pitchers know Minnesota wants to be aggressive early in the count accordingly and could use that to their advantage.
PITCHING AND DEFENSE
Rotation Big 3
Yes, it's possible to navigate a postseason with just two quality starters. Considering every team still alive in October boasts a pair of All-Star-caliber rotation arms, the third is a difference-maker. As important as the bullpen has become in the playoffs, look at the wild-card round to understand: When starting pitching is good, it still rules the day. (Except in Toronto.)
Elite
1. Astros: This is based as much on reputation as it is production this season. Because other teams' top three starters have been better than Houston's in 2023. But last October, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier combined to go 5-0 with a 1.19 ERA over 37⅔ innings -- and Justin Verlander shoved in the ALCS and won the seminal Game 5 in the World Series. They are the kings until dethroned.
Good
2. Twins: Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray bewitched Toronto in the wild-card series, and the Twins didn't even have to use Joe Ryan, Kenta Maeda or Bailey Ober, any of whom would make for a proper No. 3.
3. Phillies: Between Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, the Phillies might have the best top two. They're good enough to carry this group despite their third starter, heretofore known as Mr. TBD -- aka Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez or Taijuan Walker, any of whom could start Game 1 against the Braves -- not necessarily needing to dominate.
4. Orioles: The Orioles are a sneaky entrant on this list. Of all the playoff starters this year, Baltimore's Game 1 and 2 guys, Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, had the best second-half ERAs. And John Means, the presumptive No. 3, has looked fantastic since returning from Tommy John surgery.
5. Rangers: The Rangers got just a couple of ho-hum outings from Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi in absolutely shutting down Tampa Bay. Dane Dunning should get the ball in Game 1 against Baltimore and has been steady as can be bouncing between a relief role and the rotation.
6. Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly in Game 1 and Zac Gallen in Game 2 is an awfully good way to start against the Dodgers. What puts the Diamondbacks on the cusp of below-average is the lack of a clear third starter. Brandon Pfaadt couldn't even make it out of the third inning in Game 1 of the wild-card series and needed rescue in the form of 6⅓ scoreless bullpen innings.
Below-average
7. Braves: At another point of this season, the Braves would be in the elite category. But as good as Spencer Strider is, Max Fried won't have pitched in 16 days before his scheduled Game 2 start because of a blister on the index finger of his left throwing hand and Charlie Morton is out. This is the Braves' lone potential vulnerability.
8. Dodgers: As great as Clayton Kershaw's ERA is this year, he hasn't thrown more than 84 pitches or 5⅓ innings in a start since June. Rookie Bobby Miller has off-the-charts stuff -- and will be starting his first playoff game. Potential No. 3 Lance Lynn has allowed 44 home runs in 183⅔ innings. It's no wonder the Dodgers are going to lean heavily on their bullpen, making manager Dave Roberts every bit as important as the arms he's summoning to get outs.
Reliever strikeouts
This is rather simple. In high-leverage situations late, the best outcome for a pitcher is a strikeout. No balls in play left to chance -- an error here, a duck snort there and a game can get sideways in a hurry. Punchouts prevent that, and considering how many managers won't let a starter see a lineup a third time, the bullpen in longer series becomes even more imperative.
Off the charts
1. Twins: While the Twins' bullpen ranked ninth in strikeout rate during the regular season, their numbers in September thrust them into the only off-the-charts spot on the pitching-and-defense portion of the proceedings. They punched out 135 in 106 innings, and watching guy after guy come in pumping 99 in the clincher against the Blue Jays illustrated: This bullpen, with Brock Stewart breaking out and Jhoan Duran throwing harder than anyone in baseball, is very, very real.
Elite
2. Dodgers: Among Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol and Ryan Brasier, the Dodgers have three of the 11 lowest second-half bullpen ERAs in baseball. None is a strikeout artist, but the Dodgers' bullpen jumped to 10.1 K/9 in September, a scary prospect for opponents.
3. Astros: Houston finished the year with the highest K rate among relievers ... but a dip to 15th in September is worth keeping an eye on.
4. Phillies: Coming to Citizens Bank Park this October -- a free nitroglycerin giveaway for ninth innings with Craig Kimbrel.
Good
5. Braves
Below-average
6. Rangers
7. Orioles: Baltimore does not belong this low. The Orioles are not a below-average bullpen, even without Felix Bautista. But once their closer went down with a torn UCL, Baltimore relievers' strikeout rate cratered, and as the playoffs get deeper and the hitters better, those late-inning punchouts could be imperative to holding leads in those one-run games at which the O's excel.
8. Diamondbacks: Arizona relievers don't strike guys out. (Lately, they've just gotten 'em out.)
Pitchers' counts
In pitchers' counts -- 0-1, 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 -- batters hit .195/.203/.307 this season. In hitters' counts -- 1-0, 2-0, 3-0, 2-1, 3-1 -- they slashed .343/.487/.613. Working ahead matters deeply. Which staffs get into the most advantageous counts (and again, we'll give an extra nod toward September performance)?
Elite
1. Braves: Atlanta is almost off the charts here. Strider leads MLB with 464 batters in his 32 starts falling behind. The Braves led MLB with the most September plate appearances in which the pitcher worked the count in his favor -- even with injuries to Fried, Morton and the continued struggles of rookie All-Star Bryce Elder.
2. Twins
Good
3. Dodgers
4. Phillies: Stop me if you've heard this one before -- Nola and Wheeler are really good at this. Nola's 442 times working ahead ranks fourth in baseball, behind Strider, San Francisco's Logan Webb and Lopez; Wheeler isn't far behind, at 18th, with 384.
5. Orioles
Below-average
6. Rangers: While Montgomery and Dunning are strong here, Texas misses Max Scherzer and Jon Gray, both of whom got ahead on 329 batters this season.
7. Astros
8. Diamondbacks: While Arizona's overall numbers are problematic, Kelly and Gallen were top-25 pitchers in working ahead this season and should shoulder a heavier burden than in the regular season if the D-backs can upset the Dodgers.
Up-the-middle defense
Using a combination of outs above average, defensive runs saved and input from scouts, a look at the teams with the best fielding from catcher, shortstop, second base and center field.
Elite
1. Rangers: You could make a very compelling argument they're off-the-charts good up the middle. Heim is a top-three defensive catcher in all of baseball. Marcus Semien should win the Gold Glove at second base. Corey Seager is clearly above-average at shortstop, as is Leody Taveras in center field. This is a distinct strength of the Rangers.
2. Phillies: After some ugly errors early in the season, Trea Turner has worked his way back to solid at shortstop. Bryson Stott at second, Rojas in center and Realmuto at catcher all are standouts.
3. Orioles: At the beginning of the season, Baltimore's defensive alignment did not belong in this category. Then Gunnar Henderson moved to shortstop from third base and Jordan Westburg was called up to play second base, and suddenly an up-the-middle quartet with two plus assets -- Cedric Mullins in center field and the magnificent Adley Rutschman at catcher -- had four.
Good
4. Astros: Houston would belong in the elite category if not for the horrendous framing numbers from its catchers, Martin Maldonado and Yainer Diaz. Those two do everything else well -- particularly the rookie Diaz -- but losing that many strikes for your pitching staff is problematic for modern catchers.
5. Dodgers
6. Twins
7. Diamondbacks: Do yourself a favor and watch Gabi Moreno. He's the most talented defensive catcher left this postseason.
8. Braves: Atlanta was on the cusp of below-average, but Sean Murphy's excellence behind the plate -- he can frame, throw and block with the best of 'em -- rescues the Braves from being just all right at the other positions.
CONCLUSION
For the second consecutive year, the Braves are the objective measure's favorite to win the World Series. The Astros jump a spot to second, and the Dodgers and Phillies are tied for third. Three AL teams fill the next spots, with the D-backs -- who entered this postseason with the fewest wins for a playoff team -- occupying the caboose.
Of course, this is baseball, and this is October, which is to say what's been true for six months often does not hold for a seventh. There will be surprises and changes. Some will blossom, others wilt. And regardless of what the numbers might suggest, a new champion will emerge.