In baseball, the best team doesn't always win the championship. In fact, it rarely does. Over the 54 seasons since MLB went to divisions, only 14 times has the team with the top record won the World Series.
Baseball is egalitarian enough that World Series winners from the wild-card round are no longer an anomaly, and the knowledge of this gives hope to each of the dozen teams that earned a playoff berth. They want to believe they can be the next 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, championship winners at 83-78.
Every team can proffer a good argument on why it's going to win this season. And in that spirit, we've made that case for all 12 teams, listed in ascending order of regular-season wins. This is Why Your Team Can Win the World Series, In 200 Words or Less -- followed by my round-by-round predictions of the entire 2023 MLB playoff bracket to prognosticate which of the dozen actually will win it.
Why the Arizona Diamondbacks can win the World Series:
Lest you think an 84-win team couldn't possibly run through a National League filled with powerhouses built to succeed in October, consider all of the things that Arizona does well. The Diamondbacks are elite defensively. They're the best base-stealing team among the postseason field. Thanks to Corbin Carroll, Christian Walker, Ketel Marte and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., they feature enough power to score in a homer-heavy October.
The two-headed starting-pitching monster of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly kept the D-backs afloat during an up-and-down season, and if they can survive the wild-card round, Gallen will be lined up to go twice in the division series. Before those two get their chance to pitch, highly touted rookie Brandon Pfaadt -- who had three scoreless outings among his final eight starts -- will start Game 1 of the NL Wild Card Series, with the Diamondbacks' bullpen waiting to shove. And no, that is not snark: The much-maligned Arizona relief corps had the second-best ERA in baseball during September. The D-backs' pitching staff allowed the fewest home runs of any playoff team in the final month of the season. This is a good team, and if it can go on a heater, it can be great.
Why the Miami Marlins can win the World Series:
Claiming that the Marlins can win the World Series when Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez, the reigning NL Cy Young winner and the uber-talented rookie who helped guide them to the postseason, are out for the season with arm injuries? You bet. There's something about these Marlins. And sure, maybe that something runs headlong into a brick wall when the schedule is stuffed with the best of the best, but Miami has the momentum vibe that has jet-fueled Octobers past.
Even without their ace and ace-in-waiting, the Marlins can really pitch; 2023 breakout Jesus Luzardo, Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera are all different kinds of nasty. And before you suggest the offense is putrid, Miami found enough toward the end of the season -- and did so for the final week without Luis Arraez. He's expected to return for the postseason, and with Jake Burger slugging .500 since coming over from the White Sox at the trade deadline, Jazz Chisholm and Josh Bell raking and Jon Berti catching on fire, there's more to this lineup than you might realize. And all of this is before we mention Miami's incredible 33-13 record in one-run games. The Marlins might be a Cinderella -- but the glass slipper is within reach.
Why the Minnesota Twins can win the World Series:
For a team with the worst record among AL playoff participants, the Twins genuinely scare potential opponents. Said one evaluator: "You'll look smart if you pick them to win the pennant." Which is a hell of a thing to say about an organization with 18 consecutive postseason losses. But the rationale is sound. The Twins do two things imperative to playoff success: hit a lot of home runs and strike out a lot of hitters.
When we say a lot of home runs, we mean the most in the AL, 233, and when we say a lot of strikeouts, we mean the most of any pitching staff, 1,543 in 1,441 innings. And finally, in September, it really started to translate. The Twins -- who admittedly strike out far too often themselves -- had the AL's best record in the month's final season. Their plus-74 run differential was the best in all of baseball. While Minnesota's offense is balanced -- a dozen players with double-digit homers -- the pitching is high-end. Sonny Gray will finish high in Cy Young voting -- and he might not even be his team's best pitcher, with Pablo Lopez on this squad. And backing them up, a back of the bullpen featuring Jhoan Duran-Griffin Jax-Emilio Pagan-Brock Stewart is downright frightening. This is an excellent sleeper pick.
Why the Toronto Blue Jays can win the World Series:
For years it seemed like the Blue Jays were building an offensive juggernaut on the backs of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and George Springer, and yet it turns out the Blue Jays' path to their first championship in three decades could be built on pitching. Texas' defeat of Seattle on Saturday night was the best thing that could have happened to Toronto, because it allowed the Blue Jays to save ace Kevin Gausman for Game 1 of the wild-card series instead of using him Sunday. Following him with Jose Berrios (3.25 ERA over his past 30 starts) and Chris Bassitt (the steadiest of steady) makes Yusei Kikuchi -- arguably Toronto's best pitcher in the second half -- a fireman in the wild-card series.
The Blue Jays can catch the ball -- there might not be a better defensive outfield pair than Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho -- and their bullpen, though bad in September, was good the previous five months. If they're going to win, though, the Blue Jays need their offense to be what it can be, not what it has been: too few home runs (18th most in MLB) and too infrequent clutch hitting (20th in weighted on-base average with runners in scoring position).
Why the Texas Rangers can win the World Series:
When the Rangers looked like real World Series contenders in the first three months of the season, they were healthy and dangerous, with an unrelenting lineup that for a decent period of time was outscoring Atlanta's historically excellent offense. Then came the injuries. All-Star catcher Jonah Heim and All-Star third baseman Josh Jung and All-Star shortstop Corey Seager and All-Star right fielder Adolis Garcia and, yeah, it's easy to see how they stumbled. Well, the entire band is back -- and enhanced with rookie star-to-be Evan Carter.
Here's the truth about the Rangers: They are extraordinarily capable of mashing their way to a championship. And they might need to, because their pitching is a mess. Jon Gray joining Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer on the injured list further eroded their depth, leaving Nathan Eovaldi -- he of the 9.30 ERA since coming off the IL -- Jordan Montgomery and Dane Dunning as their starters. And, well, the less that can be said about Texas' bullpen, the better. So, yeah, it's on the lineup with all of the above, plus Marcus Semien, Nathaniel Lowe and Mitch Garver and more, to carry the Rangers. And this group is good enough to do it.
Why the Philadelphia Phillies can win the World Series:
The Phillies are going to pummel you with home runs, steal bases at a felony level, run their starting pitchers deep into games and come with an array of relief pitchers. If this formula sounds familiar, it should -- it got them to the World Series last year. Picturing the Phillies as a credible candidate to win it all doesn't take a ton of dreaming. They run out a punishing lineup, featuring Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Nick Castellanos and their big offseason addition, Trea Turner, who's back to playing like his MVP-caliber self with a 1.067 OPS over the past six weeks.
In September, Philadelphia's 46 home runs were the third most in MLB, and its 39 steals topped the league. The Phillies complement that offense with Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola atop the rotation and a deep bullpen, making manager Rob Thomson's optionality the envy of other managers. With Craig Kimbrel, Jose Alvarado, Jeff Hoffman and freshly promoted rookie Orion Kerkering, Philadelphia can also shorten a game very quickly. The Phillies strike out a lot, and their defensive prowess leaves much to be desired, but if they proved one thing last October, it's that they're winners.
Why the Houston Astros can win the World Series:
Well, they are the defending World Series champions, so there's that. And they did reacquire Justin Verlander to rejoin a rotation with Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier -- who did help them win the most recent World Series. And Yordan Álvarez, Jose Altuve and Kyle Tucker remain an elite trio, up there with the best in the game. And their bullpen, so good last season, might be even better this year.
Yes, it's true: Of all the teams to make the playoffs, the Astros limped in with the worst record in the final month of the season. As Houston nearly fumbled its spot, questions about manager Dusty Baker's handling of the team -- from his relationship with emergent outfielder Chas McCormick to the lack of playing time for rookie catcher Yainer Diaz -- percolated. And yet, here we are again: Those same Astros won the AL West and backdoored into a first-round bye. For now, all the criticism is just noise, and if any team is equipped to not just handle but weather the noise, it's the Astros. You don't go to six consecutive AL Championship Series by accident. By now this should be obvious to anyone, but the axiom is worth repeating: Doubt the Astros at your peril.
Why the Milwaukee Brewers can win the World Series:
Almost everything lines up for the Brewers this October. Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta give the crew the best starting pitching trio in baseball. In September, Milwaukee's relief ERA ranked third in the big leagues, illustrating that the bullpen is far more than just Devin Williams. And the Brewers are incredible at turning balls in play into outs, with scouts and metrics agreeing that they might well be the best defensive team in baseball. If indeed pitching and defense win championships, well, the notion of the Brewers winning their first championship in franchise history (or even just getting to their first World Series in more than 40 years) is quite realistic.
Then there is the matter of their offense. It was good enough to vault them past the NL Central fugazi competition, sure, but can it play with the Braves' or Dodgers'? It's more like the Marlins' and Diamondbacks', with a lack of home run power and reasonably high strikeout rates. But the ability of deadline acquisitions Mark Canha and Carlos Santana (who have both been great), alongside William Contreras and Christian Yelich (likewise), to scratch across enough runs is indeed realistic with a staff likely to allow so few.
Why the Tampa Bay Rays can win the World Series:
The wide-open nature of the AL leaves evaluators trying to talk themselves into the team likeliest to separate itself from the masses. We offer the Rays: a home run-hitting, strikeout-pitching, out-making machine that despite losing their MVP-caliber shortstop and Cy Young-worthy ace somehow managed to get nearly 100 wins and look like an even more formidable postseason team than regular-season one. Yes, the loss of second baseman Brandon Lowe on top of Wander Franco's absence dings an offense that always can use a hand. But Yandy Diaz will get -- and deserve -- his place on MVP ballots this year and Randy Arozarena in October is peanut butter meeting jelly.
The Rays truly excel at run prevention, and a rotation headlined by Tyler Glasnow and Zach Eflin, both of whom have been excellent, is backed by the best bullpen among the dozen playoff teams. That relief group features strikeout beast Pete Fairbanks, the unhittable Robert Stephenson, the barely hittable Shawn Armstrong, Andrew Kittredge back from the IL, Jason Adam soon to get off it and Jake Diekman and Colin Poche shutting down everything in their paths. In the hands of manager Kevin Cash, that bullpen is perhaps October's ultimate weapon.
Why the Los Angeles Dodgers can win the World Series:
In terms of running a baseball team -- from ownership to the front office to the major league players to the farm system to the draft and all the tentacles each touches -- nobody is better than the Los Angeles Dodgers. Which is why, even as their rotation crumbled, they didn't panic. The Dodgers plan well. It doesn't always work, but their view of process-over-outcome works more often than not. And so the Dodgers are going to lean on long-timer Clayton Kershaw and newcomer Bobby Miller while fully acknowledging that they'll really need Johnny Wholestaff if they want to win. It's not an awful idea, not with relievers Ryan Brasier and Brusdar Graterol allowing a combined two runs in their past 57⅔. innings and the rest of the bullpen thriving.
And, oh yeah, there's the matter of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman at their apex and J.D. Martinez and Max Muncy hitting tanks and Will Smith steady behind the plate and rookie James Outman another development success. The Dodgers don't relent. And while they might not get the 2023 NL MVP trophy in their organization, another piece of hardware is within reach.
Why the Baltimore Orioles can win the World Series:
The Orioles are here because of a young, dynamic, potentially dynastic group of position players, right? That's how the story has gone this season, and it's not wrong. It's just incomplete. Because among all playoff starting pitchers this year, Orioles right-hander Kyle Bradish owns the best second-half ERA at 2.40. And who boasts the second-best second-half ERA among all starters? Orioles rookie right-hander Grayson Rodriguez, of course, at 2.58. Add in John Means, who's back and pitching well after Tommy John surgery, and Dean Kremer, who is the same guy he's been -- only now he's going up against No. 4s rather than aces. Baltimore's rotation can be a strength -- and it'll need to be, because its bullpen, sans Felix Bautista and with a worn-down Yennier Cano, at the moment is not.
The offense and defense do make up for that bullpen weakness, with Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson ready for their October star turns. This is just the beginning, so the O's should have more shots at this, but it's easy to get excited for this season because of how wide open the AL is. If you're going to bet on anyone, why not make it the 101-win team that didn't just survive the AL East but conquered it?
Why the Atlanta Braves can win the World Series:
They are the best team in baseball, and it's not particularly close. The offense scored 947 runs, the most by an NL team since the 2000 Colorado Rockies -- and the most by an NL team not in absurdly thin air since the 1953 Brooklyn Dodgers. Ronald Acuña Jr. is going to win MVP. Matt Olson smashed the Braves' franchise home run record. Both had 11 bombs in September, so it's not like they're slowing down. Spencer Strider is baseball's current strikeout king, and as long as Max Fried returns as scheduled in the division series and Charlie Morton joins them at some point, Atlanta's starting pitching is plenty. While the bullpen is nobody's idea of dominant, Braves relievers are striking out the most batters in the NL (though they have been extremely homer-happy in the second half, something worth keeping an eye on).
The reality of the Braves is rather simple: They can win the World Series because they are better than the other 29 teams in baseball, on paper, and the gap is not insignificant. So enjoy. This is a superteam playing out in real time.
Predictions
Of course, all 12 teams could win the World Series, but only one will win the World Series -- and we know you came here for predictions, so predictions are what you shall get. Here's my round-by-round picks for what appears to be a wide-open battle in the American League with a clear favorite in the National League.
Wild-card round
NL: Brewers over Diamondbacks, Phillies over Marlins
The Brewers won their division while the Diamondbacks were the beneficiary of an exceedingly mediocre NL wild-card field. Even if Gallen and Kelly are difference-makers, they're matched, if not exceeded, by Milwaukee's top starters.
Miami's rotation depth is impressive, with Luzardo, Garrett and Cabrera, but Philadelphia's one-two punch of Wheeler and Nola -- combined with a far deeper lineup -- will be enough to end a great Marlins run.
AL: Twins over Blue Jays, Rays over Rangers
Between their postseason losing streak and the pathetic division they won, questions about the Twins will percolate -- and are warranted. But Minnesota has been surging, and the Blue Jays haven't shown enough to suggest they'll show up in October.
The Rangers should be sitting at home this week waiting for the division series to start. Instead, they will be going home. As good as their lineup is, Tampa Bay can go run for run with them and will outpitch them.
Division series
NLDS: Brewers over Dodgers, Braves over Phillies
Vengeance for 2018. The Brewers pushed the Dodgers to the limit in the NLCS that year -- and lost in Game 7. It'll be another great series but go to the Brewers this time.
The best regular-season team in baseball takes a big step forward as the Braves attempt to win their second title in three years, while the Phillies wonder what it's going to take to usurp Atlanta in the NL East.
ALDS: Twins over Astros, Rays over Orioles
Perhaps this is a stretch, the notion that this team that hasn't won a playoff series in two decades will be the one that stops Houston's streak of ALCS appearances. Maybe the Twins are just due.
Tampa Bay-Baltimore is what he ALCS should be. This series deserves seven games. But it's going to go five, and it's going to be as even as can be, with Tampa Bay eking by on the strength of its bullpen.
League championship series
NLCS: Braves over Brewers
As long as Strider, Fried and Morton are ready to go, Atlanta can come close to matching Milwaukee's pitching -- and the Brewers won't come close to doing the same with the Braves' lineup.
ALCS: Rays over Twins
No Shane McClanahan, no Drew Rasmussen, no Jeffrey Springs, no Franco, no Lowe, no problem. The Rays' depth gets them to the World Series for the third time in franchise history and the Twins' run finally ends.
World Series
Braves over Rays
This is a rare offense with special power from top to bottom. Two years ago, when they beat the Astros, the Braves did it without Acuña. This time around, he'll be at the center of another title.