Baseball's new postseason format means October starts with a new tradition -- the elimination of four wild-card teams in the first three days of the MLB playoffs.
This year, four teams got eliminated in just two days, as we saw sweeps across the board to end the round. The Rays became the first team to exit when they were knocked out by the Rangers, hours before the Blue Jays' postseason ended in Minnesota. Soon after, the Brewers were eliminated by the Diamondbacks and the Marlins by the Phillies.
Despite winning 101 regular-season games, the Orioles became the first team eliminated in the division series with a sweep at the hands of the Rangers and, one night later, the Twins' postseason run ended with a loss to the Astros. In the National League, two huge upsets defined the division series -- the Diamondbacks sweeping the Dodgers and the Phillies bouncing the Braves.
Next, the Astros' bid for back-to-back titles ended with a seven-game ALCS loss to the Rangers. Finally, the Diamondbacks were sent packing by the Rangers in the World Series.
Whether your team's playoff departure comes in the opening days or after a long run, it's time to look ahead to what could be on the front office's to-do list heading into the offseason. ESPN MLB experts Alden Gonzalez, Bradford Doolittle and David Schoenfield identify the free agents to watch, key priorities and a question that will shape the coming months for each eliminated team.
Did your favorite team miss the postseason altogether? We answered one big question for each nonplayoff team.
Team eliminated in World Series
Arizona Diamondbacks
Eliminated by: Texas Rangers
Key free agents: OF Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF/DH Tommy Pham, 3B Evan Longoria
Biggest offseason priority: Despite their run to the World Series, the Diamondbacks were outscored on the season, and teams that were outscored usually have multiple holes. They'll want at least one hitter to replace Gurriel's production -- maybe they give Jake McCarthy another chance, or perhaps Dominic Fletcher -- but the biggest priority will be a rotation that never did settle in behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. Even with those two, the D-backs ranked 21st in rotation ERA.
Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt, despite posting ERAs over 5.00 as rookies, will no doubt be given more opportunities to start, but they could really use a veteran free agent to fill the No. 3 slot. There are plenty of options to fill that hole, with Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray the top options. The Diamondbacks do have a fair amount of bad money coming off the books, although they're on the hook for one more season of Madison Bumgarner at $14 million. Still, they should have some flexibility to go after a starter.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: The bullpen, after years of issues, was much better down the stretch after the acquisition of Paul Sewald, the emergence of Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel's excellent season. Still ... is this a reliable group? Sewald has been solid for three years but is homer-prone for a closer, something to be a little wary of. Thompson was let go in August by the Rays. Ginkel will have to prove he can do this again. Depth guys like Kyle Nelson and Scott McGough were also homer-prone (Arizona was 27th in home run rate from the pen), so more depth here still feels like a key.
Who will be the starting shortstop, Geraldo Perdomo or Jordan Lawlar? And do the D-backs look to trade the other one? If they do, it would be Perdomo, since Lawlar is regarded as one of the top prospects in the minors. Perdomo had a solid season, hitting .246/.353/.359 with above-average range at shortstop. The lack of power limits his upside, although his ability to at least draw some walks means he's not a zero at the plate. If Lawlar is deemed ready, it makes sense to trade Perdomo rather than use him as a utility player.
Offseason prediction: The Diamondbacks can't let their playoff run make them believe they're in a better position than they are -- or simply rely on any improvement in 2024 coming just from the young starting pitchers improving. How about keeping Blake Snell in the NL West and signing him to add a lefty to that all-righty mix? If they don't re-sign Gurriel, they could use a right-handed outfield bat, although the free-agent pickings are slim. Teoscar Hernandez maybe? More likely, this is where Perdomo could be used in a trade for a similar young player. -- Schoenfield
Teams eliminated in league championship series
Philadelphia Phillies
Eliminated by: Arizona Diamondbacks in National League Championship Series
Key free agents: RHP Aaron Nola, RHP Craig Kimbrel, 1B Rhys Hoskins, RHP Michael Lorenzen
Biggest offseason priority: There are two ways to look at this. Re-signing Nola is the priority. He's been a mainstay in the rotation since 2015 and is a homegrown player you would love to make a lifetime Phillie. He's been extremely durable, not missing a start since 2017, which would seem to make him less risky than other free-agent pitchers. And you can never have too many starting pitchers.
Or, given what happened in the stunning NLCS loss to the Diamondbacks (not to mention last year's World Series), finding a lockdown closer to replace Kimbrel is the priority. It turns out Josh Hader is a free agent, but he's going to be looking for Edwin Diaz money ($100 million). And is he a sure thing? He allowed eight home runs in just 50 innings in 2022 and walked 30 batters in just 56 1/3 innings in 2023. Given that Zack Wheeler is also a free agent after 2024, I would lean toward re-signing Nola.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: There isn't an obvious fit for Hoskins now that Bryce Harper has learned first base and Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas have settled into the outfield, but bringing Hoskins back on a one-year, prove-he's-healthy deal makes a lot of sense, especially since he's such a good glue guy for the clubhouse. There would be plenty of playing time for everybody if Harper can rotate back into the outfield or Hoskins gets some at-bats at DH -- and it would give the Phillies plenty of injury insurance. Hoskins may want to go somewhere he knows he will play every day, but there's no reason he couldn't play 130-plus games in Philly.
Can the Phillies start faster in 2024? The Phillies are going to get mostly the same roster back, which means they need to figure out how to avoid the slow starts of the past two seasons if they want to battle the Atlanta Braves for the division title rather than settle for a wild-card spot. In 2022, a 22-29 start led to the firing of manager Joe Girardi, but 2023's 25-32 start was not all that different. Bryce Harper missed the start of the season, of course, and Trea Turner took months to get going, but Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto also got off to slow starts. The Phillies have as much frontline talent as any team in the majors, but if you're a 90-win club -- like they were this season -- and a few additional things go wrong, it doesn't take much to lose a few more games and miss the playoffs altogether.
Offseason prediction: It should be a relatively quiet offseason here as, really, even the bullpen is in much better shape than it was this time last year thanks to the discovery of Jeff Hoffman, the signing of Matt Straham, the trade for Gregory Soto and the quick rise of Orion Kerkering. That depth is why I would put money towards re-signing Nola rather than going after a closer. True, Nola didn't have his best season, but his peripherals are all excellent other than a few additional home runs allowed. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has always been about star players, and keeping Nola fits in with his longtime team-building philosophy, especially given how close this team has been to a championship the past two years. -- Schoenfield
Houston Astros
Eliminated by: Texas Rangers in American League Championship Series
Key free agents: C Martin Maldonado, LF Michael Brantley, RHP Hector Neris ($8.5M, player option), RHP Ryne Stanek, RHP Phil Maton
Biggest offseason priority: Manager Dusty Baker has essentially been on a one-year contract since he took the Astros job in January 2020, in wake of the sign-stealing scandal. The start of each of the last three offseasons has brought with it questions about Baker's status. His departure, according to people familiar with the situation, seems more likely now than it ever has been. One would think, given his Hall of Fame credentials and his success during a tumultuous time in Houston, that the decision to return would ultimately fall with Baker himself. But that might not be the case. If Baker does depart -- for whatever reason -- the Astros might have an ideal internal candidate in place with bench coach Joe Espada. It remains to be seen whether they extend the search for a new manager beyond that.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: The Astros will look very similar in 2024 to how they did at the end of 2023. Their rotation -- consisting of Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy and Hunter Brown, with Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia recovering -- will be back. The back end of their bullpen -- Ryan Pressly, Bryan Abreu, Kendall Graveman and Rafael Montero -- is essentially in place. And the vast majority of their offensive pieces will return, too -- except in left field, where Brantley is headed for free agency. Yordan Alvarez can play the field, but the Astros probably prefer he not do it on an everyday basis. Chas McCormick played left field when he wasn't in center and was very productive offensively, but the Astros could use another bat here to bolster the group. A reunion with Brantley might make sense.
Who will be the Astros' primary catcher in 2024? One of the big points of contention within the Astros this season resided at catcher. Baker -- and, it seems, his most accomplished starters -- preferred Maldonado, a below-average hitter who's also exceedingly prepared, works well with pitchers and is very much a leader behind the plate. Others -- most notably the general manager, Dana Brown -- preferred to see more of rookie Yainer Diaz, a 25-year-old with more upside. Maldonado, of course, remained the starter through the postseason. What about now? Maldonado's free agency might solve that. But do the Astros' coaches and pitchers have enough faith in Diaz taking the reins behind the plate on a full-time basis? That could depend on who the manager is.
Offseason prediction: Alex Bregman raved about Jose Altuve in the wake of Altuve's 100th career postseason game earlier this month, saying: "To be able to be his teammate, it's been an honor. Hopefully I can be his teammate forever." The Astros' front office might work to make that happen. Bregman and Altuve are both lined up to hit free agency after the 2024 season. The Astros have recovered from the loss of several key pieces during their current run of success -- most notably Carlos Correa and George Springer -- but no two people embody them more so than Bregman and Altuve. An extension for one or both makes a lot of sense. Bregman will be 30 next year; Altuve will be 34. Both are represented by Scott Boras, who famously prefers his clients -- particularly those 30 and below -- venture into the open market. So, it might be tricky. But the Astros will be very motivated to get something done ahead of time. -- Gonzalez
Teams eliminated in division series
Atlanta Braves
Eliminated by: Philadelphia Phillies in National League Division Series
Key free agents: RHP Pierce Johnson, RHP Joe Jimenez, RHP Jesse Chavez, OF Kevin Pillar; club options for RHP Charlie Morton ($20 million), OF Eddie Rosario ($9M), RHP Collin McHugh ($6M), RHP Kirby Yates ($5.75M), LHP Brad Hand ($7M, mutual option)
Biggest offseason priority: The Braves are unlikely to pick up all those options on the relievers (probably yes on Yates and no to McHugh and Hand), plus Johnson and Jimenez are free agents, so they could be looking at replacing a sizable chunk of the bullpen -- and perhaps not having a lot of flexibility in the payroll to do that. In this era of lights-out relievers, only closer Raisel Iglesias pitched at least 40 innings with an ERA under 3.00, so you can see the desire to find one or two more reliable setup men. Johnson was very effective after coming over from the Rockies, so the Braves might look to re-sign him.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: The rotation was a mediocre 17th in the majors with a 4.36 ERA -- higher than the Mets or Tigers -- and 12th in innings pitched. Not a liability, but not a big strength. Spencer Strider, Bryce Elder and Charlie Morton each made 30-plus starts, but Elder faltered after an All-Star first half, while Morton turns 40 in November, so you can't assume you'll get the same production from those two. Then we saw what happened when the playoffs rolled around: Morton was out with a finger injury and Max Fried had to pitch through a blister issue. We already know Kyle Wright will miss 2024 with shoulder surgery. Maybe youngsters Jared Shuster and AJ Smith-Shawver will provide better depth in 2024, or maybe Mike Soroka somehow finds himself, but you can see the incentive to bring in a veteran starter.
Do the Braves need to make a big move? Not really -- although you don't want to assume the offense is going to be as historically awesome again. So if you're building in some regression there, the Braves might need the pitching to be a little better to post a third straight 100-win season. The lineup remains in place. No need to do anything there, except maybe acquire a better backup outfielder. I'd like to see them work Vaughn Grissom into the lineup a little more after he hit .330 at Triple-A.
Offseason prediction: The Braves are as set as any team in baseball with their powerful lineup of players all in the midst of their prime seasons. I don't see any reason to tinker with that group, and Strider and Fried remain a dynamite 1-2 duo (although 2024 will be Fried's final season before free agency). Still, I think it's always worthwhile to tinker around the edges. One reason the Dodgers have managed to win 100 games year after year is they don't bring back the same team. The Braves can improve their bench (the position players were also unusually healthy in 2023) and improve their bullpen. That's probably their focus. -- Schoenfield
Los Angeles Dodgers
Eliminated by: Arizona Diamondbacks in NLDS
Key free agents: LHP Clayton Kershaw, LHP Julio Urias, DH J.D. Martinez, LF David Peralta, RF Jason Heyward, UT Enrique Hernandez, SS Amed Rosario, 2B Kolten Wong, RHP Ryan Brasier, RHP Shelby Miller, RHP Lance Lynn ($18M, club option), INF Max Muncy ($14M, club option), RHP Joe Kelly ($9.5M, club option), RHP Daniel Hudson ($6.5M, club option), RHP Blake Treinen (conditional option)
Biggest offseason priority: You could have probably guessed this answer -- it's Shohei Ohtani. The Dodgers are expected to be among the most aggressive suitors, if not the most aggressive suitor, for the generational two-way player. But there's an important caveat here: Ohtani won't pitch in 2024. And because he will be coming off his second Tommy John surgery -- or some version of it, given the vague nature of the initial description -- there are legitimate concerns about how long he'll continue to hold up as a two-way player. The Dodgers, as we've seen in these playoffs, desperately need starting pitching. In other words, Ohtani won't be enough.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: Kershaw's decision. Perhaps this isn't necessarily "under the radar," but the Ohtani hysteria has pushed it to the back of most people's minds. As he has each of the last two years, Kershaw will spend some time with his family and decide, probably before the end of November, whether he wants to pitch again in 2024. If he does, he'll either return to the Dodgers or join his hometown Texas Rangers. And if he chooses L.A., there will be a rotation spot waiting for him.
Kershaw's decision could determine how aggressive the Dodgers are for starting pitching, either via trade or through free agency. They won't have Tony Gonsolin in 2024 and can't necessarily count on Dustin May, either. But Walker Buehler will be back. And beyond him is a host of young starters, including Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone. They could certainly use another veteran arm. But how much will they spend on one?
How will the Dodgers line themselves up offensively? Their versatility is a strength, but it makes their outlook a bit hazy at the start of the offseason. Muncy's option will probably be picked up, but will they continue to deploy him as the everyday third baseman? Gavin Lux will be fully recovered from knee surgery by spring training, but will he play shortstop or second base (or perhaps even left field)? Will Miguel Vargas get another shot at a semi-regular job? And how does Mookie Betts' versatility in right field and second base shape the Dodgers' offseason? They'll be able to pivot in several different directions this winter, and it's hard to predict which way they'll go right now.
Offseason prediction: The Dodgers will pull off a major trade by parting with some of their more promising prospects. It's their preferred route, rather than overspending in free agency. They held off on it this last offseason, but capitalizing on some of their prospect capital makes a lot of sense right now. The Dodgers have what feels close to a surplus of young starters ready to break into the big leagues at the moment and could use some of that for either a more established starting pitcher or some help on offense or both. They also have two premier catching prospects in Diego Cartaya and Dalton Rushing, both of whom are blocked by Will Smith. Vargas and Michael Bush, without set positions on a major league infield, would also intrigue other teams. Perhaps they rekindle trade talks with the St. Louis Cardinals for Nolan Arenado. -- Gonzalez
Minnesota Twins
Eliminated by: Houston Astros in American League Division Series
Key free agents: RHP Sonny Gray, RHP Kenta Maeda, CF Michael Taylor, RP Emilio Pagan, OF Joey Gallo, INF Donovan Solano, OF Max Kepler ($10M, club option), INF Jorge Polanco ($10.5M, club option)
Biggest offseason priority: The Twins put out a completely different lineup this year depending on which arm the opposing pitcher threw with. And though they did improve against lefties down the stretch, they could use a menacing right-handed hitter or two. The left-handed hitting Matt Wallner, Alex Kirilloff and Edouard Julien all possess drastic splits.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: The Twins' rotation seems set for next season, despite the looming free agencies of Gray and Maeda. Pablo Lopez, signed to an extension shortly after coming over via trade, will front it. Chris Paddack will be ready to step in. And Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Louie Varland will round it out. But the Twins were such a dangerous team this season because Gray joined Lopez as a co-headliner of their pitching staff, and it'll be interesting to see how deep they get into discussions with Gray this offseason. It seems like such a good fit for both sides.
Can the Twins' stars remain healthy? It's not necessarily a question that can be answered in the offseason, but it's the one that will come to define this era's Twins. Royce Lewis is a star-level player if he can remain on the field but has dealt with two ACL tears and was set back by oblique and hamstring injuries this season. Carlos Correa had two free agent deals fall through last offseason due to concerns over his ankle, then dealt with plantar fasciitis in 2023. And the big concern, of course, is Byron Buxton, who was limited to DH in the wake of knee surgery, then didn't play past the start of August because of lingering pain in that same right knee. If he's on the field, alongside Lewis and Correa, the Twins are dynamic. If not, they're vastly different.
Offseason prediction: There isn't a ton of offense on the free agent market this offseason, but expect the Twins to be in on right-handed hitting outfielders and first basemen. Garrett Cooper, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Tommy Pham and Teoscar Hernandez are among the potential fits there. The Twins increased their Opening Day payroll from an average of about $130 million from 2021 to 2022 to close to $155 million in 2023. Perhaps the excitement of finally breaking through in the postseason will convince ownership of another increase. If so, they could make an inspired run to keep Gray. -- Gonzalez
Baltimore Orioles
Eliminated by: Texas Rangers in ALDS
Key free agents: CF Aaron Hicks, RHP Kyle Gibson, 2B Adam Frazier, RHP Jack Flaherty, RHP Austin Voth (club option), RHP Jorge Lopez
Biggest offseason priority: Adding veteran stability to the pitching staff. Now that we know the Orioles will be without Felix Bautista next season (he underwent Tommy John surgery this week), splurging for a veteran closer or closer candidate might make sense, if only to put the bullpen into some kind of focus. Maybe Yennier Cano or someone else already in-house can take over the role, but you want some coverage here. Josh Hader (who grew up near Baltimore and was originally drafted by the Orioles), Jordan Hicks, David Robertson, Craig Kimbrel -- there are options. Baltimore also could use one or two veteran starters. The O's have built up nice depth over the years, but the need remains, especially with Gibson and Flaherty headed for the market.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: Fans? The Orioles are just getting started in this window of contention. They have so much young talent in or near the majors that, for the most part, any on-field need you might identify through the fine art of nit-picking might well be solved by someone growing into a necessary role or adding something to their existing game. And, look, Orioles fans are great and the passion around the team is legit. Nevertheless, the attendance figures this season -- Baltimore ranked 21st -- were not where they should be, despite being up 42% from last year. Why wouldn't you want to see this team in that ballpark as many times as you can?
When do the Orioles begin the process of extending some of their young stars? The correct answer should be now, as soon as possible. Start with Adley Rutschman, since he was the first to arrive. Then quickly turn to Gunnar Henderson. The franchise needs to show some commitment and set the tone for the others who just arrived or are soon to arrive, not the least of whom is Jackson Holliday.
Offseason prediction: Baltimore will increase its payroll, but not as much as we'd like to see. The tab should go up just because of the number of arbitration eligibles the Orioles will, or should, want to keep, though there are one or two non-tender candidates in there. The Orioles have never been shy with their non-tenders. But after the long rebuild and the dramatic rise, it feels like they are perfectly positioned to play the top of the free agent market. Problem is, this might not be the free agent season to do that. Still, it's hard to imagine Baltimore not doing something splashy, whether it's a headline signing or major trade. -- Doolittle
Teams eliminated in wild-card series
Miami Marlins
Eliminated by: Philadelphia Phillies in NL wild-card round
Key free agents: DH Jorge Soler (opt-out), RHP David Robertson, 3B Joey Wendle, 1B Yuli Gurriel, RHP Matt Barnes (club option), RHP Johnny Cueto (club option), IF Jon Berti (club option)
Biggest offseason priority: The Marlins' organizational strength is pitching -- and that's a good strength to have. But the Marlins' position group has lagged. Not only has Miami struggled to score runs consistently, but the team defense this season posted some of the poorest metrics in the majors. That can't continue. The Marlins need to solidify that foundation of pitching with elite defense, especially since they play in a pitching-friendly venue. That project probably starts by figuring out whether or not Jazz Chisholm Jr. can transition his speed and athletic ability into defensive production as a center fielder.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: There isn't a team in the majors that wouldn't love to have Miami's left-handed quartet of Tanner Scott, A.J. Puk, Andrew Nardi and Steven Okert in its bullpen. Alas, Miami didn't have as much luck identifying a stable group of righties. That includes the sensible addition of David Robertson at the deadline to assume the closer's role. That didn't work out, though Robertson did get better after being moved to middle relief. If the Marlins can balance this group, it could be a dynamic unit worthy of the starting staff in front of it.
Will the Marlins finally spend? It's an easy and perhaps pat question to pose, but this is the perennial concern about the Marlins. The team is coming off a winning season that culminated in a postseason appearance and has a good foundation. But the NL East is a beast and isn't going to get worse. At the very least, you'd love to see the Marlins spring for at least one middle-of-the-order bat, if not two. And that involves a level of spending we haven't often seen from this franchise.
Offseason prediction: The team seeks to improve at the margins, perhaps with a plan to make an in-season splash if things are going well. This seems like a good time for the Marlins to get uncharacteristically aggressive, but it's just not something we've come to expect out of Miami. -- Doolittle
Milwaukee Brewers
Eliminated by: Arizona Diamondbacks in NL wild-card round
Key free agents: LF Mark Canha (club option), RF Jesse Winker, 1B/DH Carlos Santana, LHP Andrew Chafin (club option), LHP Wade Miley (mutual option)
Biggest offseason priority: The Brewers are a process team, which is to say that it's an organization built upon a consistent structure and certain redundancies so that when one key figure departs, another is there to step into place. That's probably not the case for manager Craig Counsell, whose wide-ranging acumen and leadership have been at the center of everything the annually competitive Brewers have accomplished. His contract is up, and he has not offered any hints about what will happen. Resolving his status is the first and most important step in Milwaukee's offseason plan. And if it comes down to money, there is no way the Brewers can allow themselves to be outbid.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: Pitching and defense have been the on-field foundation for Milwaukee. While the scouting and development teams have done a great job of building quality depth even in the face of natural attrition, the Brewers have always had star-level performers to build around. But the controllable windows of Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Freddy Peralta and Devin Williams are starting to close. The choices: Ride with them, spin them into future value via the trade market or extend them at what would be pricey market rates.
What does the Brewers' future outfield look like? This is a good problem for the Brewers to have, but there is a glut of high-ceiling outfielders at or near the big league level. That line forms behind a veteran, former MVP Christian Yelich, who has five more seasons on his deal before a 2029 mutual option. Then there is a rash of exciting youngsters: Sal Frelick, Garrett Mitchell, Joey Wiemer and, perhaps as soon as Opening Day next season, 19-year-old wunderkind Jackson Chourio.
Offseason prediction: The Brewers are always competitive, and that's because they always making sustainability a priority. They won't reboot or punt the 2024 season, but they aren't likely to go all-in when it comes to extending their veteran pitchers or shortstop Willy Adames, who will be entering the last year of his arbitration window. While waiting to see how next season goes before the trade deadline is always an option, expect some transition involving some familiar names this winter. That process will be a little more severe if Counsell's job is one of those being transitioned. -- Doolittle
Toronto Blue Jays
Eliminated by: Minnesota Twins in AL wild-card round
Key free agents: 3B Matt Chapman, CF Kevin Kiermaier, DH Brandon Belt, LHP Hyun-jin Ryu, LF/2B Whit Merrifield ($18 million mutual option)
Biggest offseason priority: After finishing eighth in the AL in runs, the Blue Jays will not only have to figure out how to score more runs in 2024 but also reconfigure their entire lineup with several key position-player free agents. Chapman didn't do much damage after hitting .384 in April (he hit .202 or worse in four of the next five months), Merrifield's option is too high to pick up, and if the Jays let Kiermaier walk, they can slide Daulton Varsho to center on a full-time basis. Toronto scored 100 fewer runs than it did in 2021, and getting that year's version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back will help -- but that's hardly the only solution.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: How will the Blue Jays pour money back into the roster? Chapman, Ryu, Belt and Kiermaier made a combined $50.8 million in 2023. Some of that will go to in-house raises (Bo Bichette's salary will go up nearly $8 million), and there is still some flexibility to add some firepower, either in free agency (which is somewhat limited) or in trade. Indeed, they might have to consider trading from their rotation depth for position player help. But after running a payroll $50 million-$60 million higher than 2022 and not getting any better results for it, maybe ownership balks at matching 2023's club-record payroll.
Can the Blue Jays count on Alek Manoah for 2024? The rotation was excellent even as the 2022 All-Star and 2023 Opening Day starter cratered to a 5.87 ERA, but the Jays probably shouldn't count on getting 31-plus starts again from Kevin Gausman, Jose Berrios, Chris Bassitt and Yusei Kikuchi. If Manoah can re-find himself and if prospect Ricky Tiedemann is ready, the Jays can once again have one of the best rotations in the majors.
Offseason prediction: I think they'll try to re-sign Belt -- he had a productive year at DH -- but Chapman's fade probably means they let him walk, even though there isn't a clear solution in free agency. The most intriguing scenario would be to trade a starting pitcher, but that would put a lot of faith in Manoah that he probably won't be able to earn until the Jays see him in spring training. -- Schoenfield
Tampa Bay Rays
Eliminated by: Texas Rangers in AL wild-card round
Key free agents: RHP Robert Stephenson, LHP Jake Diekman (club option), OF Raimel Tapia
Biggest offseason priority: Addressing a starting rotation that was considered a strength before a slew of injuries this season. Shane McClanahan will miss all of 2024 after Tommy John surgery. Jeffrey Springs had Tommy John surgery in April, so he could miss a large portion of the season. Drew Rasmussen had an internal brace procedure rather than full Tommy John surgery and is expected to be out until midseason of 2024. The Rays hope to get Shane Baz back from his 2022 Tommy John surgery to add to a rotation of Zach Eflin, Tyler Glasnow, Taj Bradley and Aaron Civale, but keep in mind that Glasnow's two-year, $30.35 million contract pays him $25 million in 2024 (his final year before free agency), which makes him a potential target to be traded given the Rays' usual payroll parameters.
Under-the-radar priority to watch: This is a good problem to have, but the Rays will have to figure out how to fit Junior Caminero and Curtis Mead, two of the top hitting prospects in the minors, into the lineup. Both are third basemen, although Caminero played some shortstop and Mead some second base, but third baseman Isaac Paredes was third on the team in WAR behind Wander Franco and Yandy Diaz. The Rays could play Mead at second and look to trade Brandon Lowe, but Lowe ended the season with a right patella fracture. There's always DH, but Harold Ramirez had a good season at DH. It's possible the Rays trade from this infield depth to acquire some pitching.
Will Franco be in a Rays uniform in 2024? The answer: At this point, nobody knows. Franco remains on administrative leave as MLB and law enforcement in the Dominican Republic investigate allegations that he had inappropriate relationships with one or more minors.
If Franco is unavailable, the Rays will likely turn to an in-house option at shortstop. They gave Caminero a late-season audition in the majors, including two starts at shortstop. Taylor Walls also remains a capable option if needed, and prospect Carson Williams might not be far off either.
Offseason prediction: Despite the concerns about the rotation, look for the Rays to trade Glasnow. It's how they've always operated: Move a player before he hits free agency and restock with prospects. They could also look to trade from their excess of infielders to get some young pitching. -- Schoenfield