This season, everyone will get to play in October. The bad news for 18 teams is that the first day of the month most associated with the baseball postseason also happens to be last day of the 2023 regular season. For those teams, that's all the October baseball they're going to get.
For the delighted dozen, it's time for the crucible of playoff baseball. For everyone else, the focus shifts to 2024 and beyond. The quest: more October baseball in the seasons to come. Every quest begins with a first step, and we have some thoughts about that.
Here is the key question each non-playoff team will be asking -- or at least should be asking -- in the days to come. Now that the postseason field is set, we'll cover each team that won't be playing playoff baseball this October.
Boston Red Sox: Who will be calling the shots?
We can debate all day about the decision to part ways with GM Chaim Bloom. Most everyone agrees Bloom did a solid job in building up the Red Sox's prospect base and that it was perhaps overly calculated patience with the big league roster that got him in the end. It goes to follow that the mandate for Boston's next baseball boss will be to replicate what the 2013 and 2016 Red Sox managed to do: go from worst to first. It's a challenge but there are worse situations for an enterprising executive.
Chicago Cubs: Can we finish off the development of our hitting prospects?
There was a lot of progress, but nevertheless, there are a number of lingering questions after the late-season tumble. But let's focus on a forward-spinning topic and consider the hitting prospects who debuted this year, with few of them hitting the ground running. The sample sizes differ, but there was a wide-open opportunity for Matt Mervis to take over first base, a spot where production was very much needed, but he struggled badly during five-week trial in the big leagues. Late in the season, Pete Crow-Armstrong came up and flashed the speed and defense we've heard so much about, but he didn't get a hit in 15 plate appearances. Miguel Amaya put up a 90 OPS+ in 153 trips to the plate. Brennan Davis didn't reach the majors after hitting .187 at Iowa and struggling with injuries. These prospects, and others such as Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie and Kevin Alcantara, are still a key part of the immediate future. However, the Cubs need them to turn potential into production quickly, because the time or rebuilding in Chicago (at least on the North Side) is supposed to be over. Confidence in this group of hitting prospects will allow the front office to focus its resources on building depth on the pitching side.
Chicago White Sox: What will be different?
The White Sox hold a $14 million team option on shortstop Tim Anderson, who is coming off a horrific season. Anderson, 30, has struggled to stay healthy and just generally struggled on his way to a slugging percentage around .300. He's a good enough athlete that you can move him around if new chief exec Chris Getz believes prospect Colson Montgomery will be ready sooner than later. And it's only for one year. Still, the question remains: With a number of familiar faces likely to be back, and the shakeup in the organization resulting in Getz's promotion and the apparent decision to bring first-year skipper Pedro Grifol back for more, what exactly is going to be different about the 2024 White Sox?
Cincinnati Reds: Where is veteran support needed for such a young roster?
The Reds fell short, but they were an awful lot of fun in 2023, and their fans have every reason to expect only blue skies in the seasons to come. From a roster-building standpoint, they are in amazing shape. Cincinnati is bursting with pre-arbitration talent all over the field. They don't have much in the way of outgoing free agents. Yes, Joey Votto's contract is up, but that shouldn't be a problematic situation. If Votto wants to stay, and he and the Reds come to an accord on terms and his role, why wouldn't you have him around? Cincinnati's payroll is wide open. As for the aforementioned veteran support, at least two veteran innings stabilizers are needed, one full-blown starter and perhaps another combo type. A couple of veteran relievers would be nice as well, though every team can say that. The bottom line is that the Reds are in great shape, and their lead exec, Nick Krall, has a pristine canvas and a fresh set of paints with which to work.
Cleveland Guardians: Can anyone replace Terry Francona?
The Guardians are an organization in the truest sense of the word. They have a certain way of doing things, it generally works and they intend to continue to iterate their processes. Francona has been at the center of the machine for a long time--- 11 years to be exact, three more than he was with Boston. Nobody has managed and won more games in the history of the franchise, one of the AL's original clubs. In many ways, Francona has been the face of Cleveland baseball for more than a decade. How do you replace that? Well, you don't, really, but what will Cleveland's approach be? There are plenty of qualified candidates but the risk with such a process-oriented franchise is that the wrong pick might leave the Guardians feeling kind of faceless. And, not for nothing, Francona was a pretty good manager, too.
Colorado Rockies: How many of the kids are part of the 2024 plan?
It's a strange thing when an owner offers a preseason forecast. Most of the time, if someone declares that a team is a contender or a .500 club or something in the face of the consensus forecast, you just shrug your shoulders. But when the owner does it, doesn't whatever he or she says become the actual expectation? Analysis-based forecasts never saw the Rockies as a likely contender or threat to the break-even level before the season and they very much have not been those things. But Dick Monfort famously said he thought the team had .500 potential, and if that was Colorado's internal expectation, the Rox fell way short. Going forward, some longer-term solutions have started to emerge from the system, the most notable being present big leaguer being shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. As Zac Veen, Drew Romo and the rest start to push their way to the majors, the turnaround might not be immediate, no matter what sort of forecasts are floated from the organization. But the payoff will eventually be worth it.
Detroit Tigers: How real was 2023's improvement?
The Tigers jumped from 47 wins in 2019 to a prorated 64 in the shortened 2020 season and 77 in 2021. After that, they signed Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, a splurge that contributed to the ouster of former lead exec Al Avila when Detroit slid back to 66 wins in 2022. The arrival, or pending arrival, of key prospects fueled Avila's aggression and in hindsight it looks like he jumped the gun. This year's Tigers improved steadily, not dramatically, and most of those prospects that excited Avila were part of the reason for the uptick. Baez remains a mess at the plate and it's hard to see him returning to his quasi-MVP level play from his days in Chicago, though he still does a lot of things well. Rodriguez has been solid for Detroit. Both can opt out this winter, but it's not certain either will. The new baseball chief, Scott Harris, is in a similar position to Avila after 2021: The team is better. Some of the youngsters have arrived and shown signs of a collective breakout. More are on the way, such as infielder Jace Jung, and Casey Mize should return from a missed injury season. Miguel Cabrera's retirement frees some payroll and if Baez and Rodriguez opt out, the Tigers will have almost no committed salary going into the offseason. In other words, Harris has all sorts of options. His read on how far his foundation players have progressed should inform how aggressive he's likely to get this winter.
Kansas City Royals: Will Bobby Witt Jr. sign for the long term?
Right now, the Royals feel like a franchise in transition, though what they are transitioning into is an open question. Not everything that happened in 2023 was awful and the team became more competitive down the stretch, though by then the season was long gone. Still, a team with so much to do and so many questions to answer has to start someplace, and the one ironclad certainty about the Royals is that they have a young, elite player on their hands in Bobby Witt Jr. He is still refining his approach at the plate, but his improvement over the season suggests he's pretty quickly figuring things out. An extension for him will be long in duration and mighty in dollars, but during a time when the Royals are asking the region to co-invest with them on a new venue, the John Sherman-led ownership can signify its willingness to invest in a championship product by committing to the future franchise cornerstone.
Los Angeles Angels: Will the 2024 Angels feature Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, both or neither?
Based on recent comments, it seems likely Trout will be back, if only because franchise resets don't seem to be part of owner Arte Moreno's repertoire. And that's a good thing. The Angels are better with Trout, obviously, and maybe he can even eke out a couple of full seasons going forward. Moving him off of center field could help that cause, and that task might be easier if Ohtani indeed signs elsewhere and frees up DH at-bats. If Ohtani departs, the Angels should focus on building pitching depth and continuing to increase the youth-and-athleticism levels around Trout. They should do those things even if Ohtani stays, but if he doesn't they'll have more money to work with. On the bright side, the Halos seem to have three keepers already on hand in Logan O'Hoppe, Zach Neto and on-base machine Nolan Schanuel. That's a good start. The person perhaps most interested in the Trout/Ohtani question is Anthony Rendon, who over the past three seasons has played a total of 148 games, putting up a 94 OPS+ with minus-9 defensive runs saved. If both Trout and Ohtani are gone, the spotlight will have to fall somewhere, and a logical place to shine it is on the guy making $38.6 million next year.
New York Mets: What is David Stearns' mission?
The obvious answer is to win -- but how and for how long? Stearns was instrumental in building a sustainable contention machine in Milwaukee, one that continued unimpeded after he stepped down. That kind of self-sustaining collaborative framework is not something you associate with the Mets, but if that's not what you want, then why hire Stearns as your president of baseball operations? The model going forward is more the Dodgers than the Brewers. In other words, don't invest in the system or free agency or the international market or scouting or analytics or sports medicine or cognitive research or performance optimization, but invest in all those things. That kind of comprehensive overhaul takes time and as Stearns -- a Mets fan and former employee -- knows all too well, there is a certain urgency to getting this right sooner than later. Finding the right balance between the present and the future is the immediate challenge facing Stearns as he leans into his new job.
New York Yankees: How do we fix the rotation?
This might seem like too specific a question when the 2023 Yankees generated so much uncertainty. But you can also argue the Yankees learned some things about themselves from the way their season unraveled and how (and who) they played down the stretch. The chief lesson (one would hope) is that you cannot overburden a roster with too many aging boppers with declining complementary skills. You need a certain amount of youth, speed, athleticism and, especially, lineup balance. The Yankees have as good a pair of cornerstones around as anybody in Aaron Judge and Gerrit Cole, so there is no reason they can't be back in the chase a year from now. But even more than the disappointing offense, the Yankees have to figure out how to create certainty and depth in the rotation after Cole, with durability taking on a larger role in their evaluations. Carlos Rodon's contract ensures he'll get a long leash to do better going forward and he has bounced back from injury-riddled seasons in a big way before. After those two, the hard questions begin, and how they are answered will determine how we view the 2024 Yankees when spring comes around.
Oakland Athletics: Can we finally start building something?
The owners will hopefully vote on Oakland's proposed relocation to Las Vegas at their meetings in November. The "hopefully" isn't meant to underwrite the notion of leaving Oakland but more that we can finally move forward with this franchise, whichever form that takes. There will be other questions after that, not the least of which would be where the A's will play next season. Still, from a competition standpoint, this franchise has used its stadium situation as an excuse to skimp on its baseball product for too long, even as the people who have run the team have often succeeded admirably. If we get to the point that we know a shovel is going to strike the ground someplace, will the A's finally take steps to construct a stable baseball operation?
Pittsburgh Pirates: What does the catcher depth chart look like in 2024?
This may strike you as another very specific question amid of run of big-concept queries, but there is a lot about the future of the Pirates that hinges on this topic. Before the season, ESPN's Kiley McDaniel had three Pirates prospects in his top 100. After infielder Termarr Johnson (No. 24) came Endy Rodriguez (42) and former top overall pick Henry Davis (68). Johnson is still figuring out things in the low minors, while Rodriguez and Davis are on the big league roster and, incidentally, are both catchers. They have struggled at the plate during their initial big league stints, with Davis battling through injury issues. The Pirates have used Davis as a right fielder for the most part. It's a position he did not play much in the minors and, well, you can tell. Pittsburgh's array of young position players keeps getting larger -- Nick Gonzales, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero, Jared Triolo, Oneil Cruz, Ke'Bryan Hayes and Jack Suwinski are among those on whom the Pirates are pinning their future hopes, and the hope that the future could arrive as soon as 2024. Two of the best talents among the group -- Rodriguez and Davis -- very much fit into that mix but... how?
San Diego Padres: What does cutting payroll look like?
Recent reports out of San Diego suggest the $250 million Padres will be more like the $200 million Padres entering next season. Getting to that number isn't complicated, as the Padres have a gaggle of free agents earning significant dollars to which they can simply bid adieu. But the expensive core remains: Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and Fernando Tatis Jr. So how does a team that didn't have sufficient depth replace key players like Blake Snell and Josh Hader while also addressing the depth issue, and having less money to work with? The Padres thinned their system in building the current roster, so going young in 2024 doesn't seem like a path to bounce-back contention. Still, teams make it work with lower payrolls than even a cheaper San Diego roster figures to require. Getting leaner and more efficient might be just the thing these Padres need.
San Francisco Giants: Is it time to deploy our massive, sleeping economic clout?
Full disclosure: This is the exact same question we posed about the Giants last year. The answer, as it turned out, was yes. The problem was that in the end, the Giants couldn't get a superstar to take their money. San Francisco has remained competitive under Farhan Zaidi and Gabe Kapler and for a while this season, the Giants seemed poised to make a 2021-like run at the NL West title. Wild card hopes lingered late into the season even as the offense cratered and even as the Dodgers ran away with the division. In the end, the Giants just didn't have enough and Kapler paid for that with his job.The team leverages every advantage it can uncover, both in churning the roster and in deploying that roster in every game. The percentages usually justify everything the Giants do, but it so often feels like they are trying to thread a very small needle. And, as we noted last year, this is the San Francisco Giants, and they should not be this iterative. It's like the team is run by Heraclitus.
Seattle Mariners: Who will comprise the middle of the order?
No team is ever totally free from questions about its pitching staff, but Seattle enters the offseason in great shape on that side of things. Yeah, you can quibble; perhaps an elite back-of-the-bullpen hammer is needed. Still, the clear area to upgrade is the offense, primarily when it come to middle-of-the-order menace. The Mariners ranked ninth in overall OPS among AL clubs, but were 12th or worse in the three-, four- and five-holes. Their most frequent cleanup hitter, Teoscar Hernandez, is headed for free agency. The free agent market isn't the deepest, but the Mariners can be microfocused here, looking for someone who can play outfield or perhaps fill an everyday DH role (*cough* Ohtani *cough*). A player starring internationally, Korea's Jung-Hoo Lee, might be a perfect fit. Whoever it is doesn't necessarily have to be a 50-homer guy, but more someone who combines plus pop with bat-on-ball ability as the Mariners look to cut into their long-standing issue of too many strikeouts.
St. Louis Cardinals: What happened?
The Cardinals' historic-level flop this season has St. Louis fans feeling indignant, and they haven't been shy about expressing it. Sure, you can tactfully suggest that Redbird Nation is a wee bit entitled, but if that's the case, you can understand why. The team is always good, or at least not bad. This year's team was bad, posting the franchise's first losing season in 16 years and its worst winning percentage since 1995. Either future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina, who retired after last season, was way better than our already glowing estimations, or the Cardinals need to rethink some things. To do that, the two-word question leading off this session has to be addressed. The pitching was the most obvious area of decline, but the offense and fielding were both worse as well. It was really an all-systems failure. All of that is the "what," though, and the crucial aspect is figuring out the "why" -- otherwise this season might have just been the start of an unwelcome trend in St. Louis.
Washington Nationals: Is it time to expand the payroll?
The Nationals got better this season. A number of their young players made progress. Keibert Ruiz looks like a legit No. 1 catcher. CJ Abrams is already one of the game's most exciting players and has plenty of room to grow. Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore look like rotation fixtures. Jackson Rutledge got his (very large) feet wet in the majors. The pool of possible long-term rotation candidates is fairly deep. The position players on the way -- Dylan Crews, James Wood, Elijah Green, Brady House, Robert Hassell III, among others -- is one of the more exciting groups in the majors. At some point, GM Mike Rizzo is going to be itching to fill out the mix with some high-quality veterans. Is the time to do that now? Probably not, and even if it were, the Nationals' ownership situation muddies the waters. Nevertheless, if the appropriate free agent fit is out there, the Texas Rangers have shown you can commit to the right player a year early if you are confident you're on the verge of turning the corner.