So much of what will be remembered about the 2023 MLB season has already happened. There is plenty more to come, but even as we look forward to the drama of October, we can also shift into assessment mode.
Every team, no matter how strong, has faced adversity at some level. Conversely, even the teams at the bottom of the standings have had some things go right, even if you might have to squint to identify them.
That's what we're doing in the final Stock Watch of the regular season: highlighting the biggest success and the biggest failure for every team, based on what's happened at the big league level this season.
1. Atlanta Braves
Sim wins: 104 (change from August: +0.4)
Probabilities: 100% (division), 100% (playoffs), 23% (title)
Biggest success: Ball go far. Atlanta remains on pace to establish a single-season team record for homers. Matt Olson has already topped 50, but four others are over 30 and three of them might get to 40 by season's end. Ten different Braves have double-digit dingers. Homers have accounted for 53.1% of Atlanta's scoring. According to Statcast, the Braves have barrels on 8.3% of their plate appearances. Second place: Minnesota, at 6.5%. You get the idea: The longball has defined the Braves' season.
Biggest failure: Establishing bullpen dominance. We are nitpicking a bit here, as you kind of have to do when assigning "failure" to a team on pace to win 104 games. The concern is real, however. Closer Raisel Iglesias has been solid, but has had a poor September. Overall, the Atlanta bullpen ranks 29th in the majors with a 6.42 ERA this month. When the Braves hit the postseason, that's got to flip in a significant way, or all those home runs aren't going to matter.
2. Baltimore Orioles
Sim wins: 100.7 (change: +3.3)
Probabilities: 76% (division), 100% (playoffs), 9% (title)
Biggest success: Manifesting the future. The Orioles have gotten better and better as the season has progressed and they've done so while continually pushing their lauded prospect depth into big league roles. Rookie Gunnar Henderson is already a bona fide star. Grayson Rodriguez has been a frontline rotation stalwart since returning from a midseason demotion. And it's still happening, as Heston Kjerstad is the latest Oriole phenom to arrive and he's already made an impact. This thing is just getting started in Baltimore.
Biggest failure: Upgrading the rotation at the deadline. The Orioles took a swing with one trade, bringing in Jack Flaherty from St. Louis. So far, that acquisition has been a whiff, as Flaherty has pitched to a 7.11 ERA as an Oriole. You can quibble with the decision to target Flaherty, who wasn't having a great season in St. Louis, but really the issue is that Baltimore probably should have added more than one veteran starter. It's a minor ding in what's been a dream season for the Orioles.
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
Sim wins: 100.4 (change: +5.4)
Probabilities: 100% (division), 100% (playoffs), 18% (title)
Biggest success: The Mookie and Freddie show. We'll be sorting out the historical ramifications of the 2023 versions of Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman for a long time to come. Both players are on pace to top 150 runs created. Only 10 teams have had two 150-plus RC stars, the last being the 2001 Rockies (Todd Helton and Larry Walker). The rest of the list is dominated by names like Gehrig, Ruth and DiMaggio. And don't even get started on the discussion about who is having the better offensive season. You'll be arguing about it all night.
Biggest failure: Rotation stability. Clayton Kershaw is on pace to throw 132 innings. That is going to lead the Dodgers' staff and it's not going to be close. Los Angeles has gotten a quality start in fewer than a third of its games and its rotation ERA (4.60) ranks 19th in the majors. That hasn't stopped the Dodgers from crushing the NL West yet again but the postseason outlook for this group is, at best, murky.
4. Tampa Bay Rays
Sim wins: 98.5 (change: +2)
Probabilities: 24% (division), 100% (playoffs), 11% (title)
Biggest success: Rotation acquisitions. A lot has gone right for the Rays. Yet the devastating string of injuries to the rotation, headlined by the elbow injury suffered by Cy Young candidate Shane McClanahan, might have sunk the season. That is if Erik Neander and his staff had not landed Zach Eflin early in last winter's free agent season and Aaron Civale at the trade deadline. Eflin in particular is the latest entry in the "How do the Rays do it?" saga. In seven years with the Phillies, Eflin went 36-45 with a 95 ERA+. During his first season with Tampa Bay, he's gone 15-8 with a 122 ERA+.
Biggest failure: Player absences. McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen were all having strong seasons in the rotation before going down for the campaign. Jose Siri was second on the Rays in homers and playing an excellent center field when he was injured. And Wander Franco's still-evolving situation could change the franchise. Despite it all, the Rays might win 100 games.
5. Houston Astros
Sim wins: 91.3 (change: -1.5)
Probabilities: 81% (division), 99% (playoffs), 11% (title)
Biggest success: Staying afloat. The Astros haven't been unusually unfortunate in terms of aggregate injury metrics -- IL trips, IL days, etc. But they've had an ongoing string of short-term maladies that has kept the champs from ever quite getting whole, at least until the stretch run. Yet the Astros remain positioned for another run to the LCS and beyond in no small part because of the contributions of some emergent players. Mauricio Dubon has proved to be one of baseball's most valuable utility players. Chas McCormick has taken his offensive game to a new level. And Yainer Diaz has become one of baseball's better hitting catchers. None of these players looked like headliners before the season, but without them, the Astros' title defense would be in greater peril.
Biggest failure: The Jose Abreu signing. If Abreu has a strong postseason, then you can forget this paragraph. For now, though, the three-year deal the Astros inked him to last winter looks like a whiff. The significant drop in power Abreu suffered during his age-35 season in 2022 has proved to be the new normal for the aging slugger. This season, his batting average has plummeted as well. All of a sudden, Houston finds itself with a 36-year-old first baseman who owns an 83 OPS+.
6. Milwaukee Brewers
Sim wins: 90.6 (change: +6.2)
Probabilities: 98% (division), 100% (playoffs), 4% (title)
Biggest success: Run prevention. The Brewers have excelled at all aspects involved with keeping runs off the board. The starting pitching has been good all year, and even better than that since Brandon Woodruff returned from an early-season injury. The bullpen has been airtight in high-leverage spots. The team defense is among the best two or three in the sport. Add it up and only the Rays have allowed fewer runs per game than Milwaukee.
Biggest failure: Creating an offensive identity. The flip side of the Brewers' emphasis on glove work is that the offense, in the aggregate, hasn't really been good at anything except drawing walks. But the Brewers aren't a take-and-rake team, as they rank 25th in home run percentage. And they don't hit for average, either. The Brewers have kept churning the roster, adding Carlos Santana and Mark Canha in trades and summoning impact rookie Sal Frelick from the minors. That's boosted the attack somewhat since the beginning of August. Still, with the playoffs approaching, it remains to be seen if Milwaukee can turn the scoreboard against postseason-caliber pitching.
7. Toronto Blue Jays
Sim wins: 88.9 (change: -1.4)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 80% (playoffs), 3% (title)
Biggest success: Improving the defense. The Toronto team defense has been a standout all season and in particular, the Jays' outfield metrics have been off the charts. This is no accident. When you acquire premier defenders like Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier, it makes you a better fielding team. But ...
Biggest failure: Maintaining the offense. There is a tradeoff, though it didn't have to be this severe. For all its offensive talent, Toronto has scored runs at a rate below the MLB average. The push for defense has contributed, but if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (117 OPS+), George Springer (101) and Varsho (82), among others, had performed to expectation, the team would be better balanced. The scary part for possible Blue Jays playoff opponents: The potential for this lineup to break out at any time is considerable.
8. Philadelphia Phillies
Sim wins: 88.7 (change: +1.4)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 100% (playoffs), 5% (title)
Biggest success: Pitching. Even with Aaron Nola having a down season, the Phillies' starting pitching has been consistent and stable all season. The group is so deep that deadline acquisition Michael Lorenzen threw a no-hitter since joining the Phillies and still seems slated for a playoff bullpen role.
Biggest failure: Infield defense. At least the Phillies have improved their outfield defense with the promotion of Johan Rojas and the addition of Cristian Pache. The infield defense, though, remains a sore spot on the left side. Alec Bohm's metrics at the hot corner remain well in the red, even if he is better than he was. Meanwhile, Trea Turner's defensive metrics at shortstop have been among the worst of his career, contributing to an overall disappointing first season in Philly.
9. Texas Rangers
Sim wins: 88.5 (change: -7.5)
Probabilities: 14% (division), 76% (playoffs), 5% (title)
Biggest success: The dynamic duo. Corey Seager and Marcus Semien have ranked among the five most valuable players in the AL for most of the season. Semien has done it with all-around play, durability and a potent power bat. Seager has missed a lot of games, but when he's played, he's been the AL's best hitter. His 178 OPS+ is the best of his career.
Biggest failure: Building the bullpen. Texas isn't the first team that needed to piece together a bullpen in order to capitalize on an overall leap in the standings. And the Rangers have tried, moving relievers on and off the roster and shuffling bullpen roles. But as the playoffs approach, Bruce Bochy just hasn't been able to find the right late-inning combination. The bullpen ERA in September is the worst in the majors and time is running out.
10. Seattle Mariners
Sim wins: 87.4 (change: +1.4)
Probabilities: 4% (division), 45% (playoffs), 2% (title)
Biggest success: The emergence of an elite rotation. Seattle has had a number of rotation injuries, including Robbie Ray early in the season and, more recently, Marco Gonzalez, Emerson Hancock and Easton McGee. And yet the Mariners have fashioned one of baseball's most productive starting staffs thanks to the depth built in this area by Jerry Dipoto. The group isn't just deep -- it's dynamic. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby make a playoff-worthy big three and if a fourth starter is needed, most managers would love to have to choose between Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo.
Biggest failure: Second base. The keystone has been a revolving door in Seattle and the offseason acquisition of Kolten Wong didn't stop it from spinning. Wong's offensive game cratered and the Mariners ended up releasing him. Jose Caballero has helped with the glove and can steal bases, but when he's not getting hit by a pitch he doesn't get on base enough. Josh Rojas' bat has helped, but his defensive numbers in the middle of the infield aren't great. It's a sore spot on an otherwise well-balanced roster.
11. Minnesota Twins
Sim wins: 86.1 (change: none)
Probabilities: 100% (division), 100% (playoffs), 5% (title)
Biggest success: Starting pitching. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray have both been arguably among the top five pitchers in the AL. The Twins lead the majors in quality start percentage and average game score. Only three teams have a better rotation ERA and the numbers are close enough that the Twins still have a chance to finish on top. The rotation is the biggest reason Minnesota is closing in on the AL Central crown.
Biggest failure: Production from the stars. Byron Buxton has a 98 OPS+ in 85 games. Carlos Correa is at 94, with a .230 average that is 42 points below his career mark. Neither player has been healthy, but the lack of production is what it is. It's also reason for hope, because if the Twins' stars revert to form over the next two or three weeks, this Minnesota club starts to look dangerous in a postseason context.
12. Chicago Cubs
Sim wins: 84.5 (change: -1.9)
Probabilities: 2% (division), 70% (playoffs), 2% (title)
Biggest success: Signing Cody Bellinger. There was really nothing to lose. The Cubs were committing to a recent MVP, still just 28, for one full season and a mutual option. The risk was minimal and the upside considerable and in the end, it has worked out even better than the Cubs could possibly have hoped. Bellinger hit .203/.272/.376 over his past three seasons for the Dodgers. This season, he's at .311/.356/.534. Jackpot.
Biggest failure: First base. The plan was clear. Solid veterans, Eric Hosmer and Trey Mancini, would hold down the position until prospect Matt Mervis was ready. Hosmer looked done, posting a 64 OPS+ before being released in late May. Mancini didn't fare much better, putting up a 72 OPS+ before being released after the trade deadline. Mervis did make his debut but struggled even worse than the veterans, posting a 43 OPS+ over 27 games before going back to Iowa. Mervis is still the long-term answer at this spot, but in 2023, it's been an area of instability.
13. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sim wins: 84.3 (change: +4)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 60% (playoffs), 1% (title)
Biggest success: Corbin Carroll. Top prospects don't always arrive with a splash. Carroll has emptied the pool with the greatest rookie season ever for a Diamondbacks position player. He sports an OPS+ of 132 and might be baseball's best baserunner. His speed has also paid off in the outfield as Arizona's team defense has been the best in the sport. Carroll has been as good as advertised and is a shoo-in to win NL Rookie of the Year honors.
Biggest failure: Filling out the rotation. Arizona has had as good of a one-two rotation punch as any club for a couple of seasons. But after that ... it's been rough. Together, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen have gone 26-15 with a 3.48 ERA and 34 quality starts. The other Arizona starters have gone 16-31 with a 5.71 ERA and 19 quality starts. Rookie Brandon Pfaadt has been trending upward, giving the D-backs some hope for a solid top three if they can get to the playoffs.
14. Cincinnati Reds
Sim wins: 83.9 (change: +1.8)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 35% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Rookies, rookies, rookies. Oh my goodness. The Reds have featured so many productive rookies they should change their names to the Greens. Matt McLain has been the Reds' best hitter. Spencer Steer has been a multiposition stalwart. Andrew Abbott has been their most consistent starter. Elly De La Cruz may already be baseball's most exciting player. All told, in terms of WAR contributed by rookies, the Reds are far and away the big league leaders, ranking at the top for rookie hitters and third for rookie pitchers.
Biggest failure: Giving the rotation a veteran foundation. Too many rookie starters can be a bad thing, especially when you're trying to navigate a playoff race. David Bell just has had no foundation of stable veteran innings from which to construct a staff. When Graham Ashcraft went down for the season with a toe injury, it ensured the Reds won't have a pitcher who qualifies for the ERA title. After Ashcraft's team-leading 145⅔ frames, in second place is Brandon Williamson with 106⅔.
15. Miami Marlins
Sim wins: 83.4 (change: +2.7)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 29% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: The acquisition of Luis Arraez. A lot has gone right for the Marlins, but the arrival of Arraez has given the team an offensive identity and an additional young hitter for fans to latch onto, along with Jazz Chisholm Jr.. No, Arraez didn't make a real run at .400, but he's likely to win the NL batting title and his .394 OBP has been foundational for the Marlins.
Biggest failure: Sandy Alcantara's regression. Alcantara's 2022 Cy Young season was going to be tough to replicate. But over the three seasons before that epic season, his ERA+ was 123, and if that was his floor, the Marlins would be in good shape. Well, his 107 showing this season established a new floor. It's not that Alcantara has been bad. A starter with a better-than-league-average ERA over 184⅔ innings has tremendous value. But the timing is unfortunate. With the Marlins teetering in the in/out precipice in the playoff race, if Alcantara had even approached his 2022 performance, Miami would be in solid shape.
16. New York Yankees
Sim wins: 82.1 (change: -1.6)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Gerrit Cole. Giving a long-term, huge-money contract to a pitcher is usually a bad idea. The contract the Yankees gave to Cole was and remains an exception to the rule. A leading contender for his first Cy Young Award despite this season's teamwide struggles, Cole has gone 49-23 with a 3.14 ERA and 133 ERA+ since joining the Bombers. New York has a lot of problems. Cole is not one of them.
Biggest failure: Player health. This is an annual refrain, but the Yankees just do not get enough plate appearances and innings from their best players. The rosters have been constructed to excel at the big things -- hitting homers, striking out batters. Whether or not that focus points the club to high-injury-risk players is a notion worth considering. More youth and athleticism might be a good idea. Whatever the causes and the solutions, this is something the Yankees really need to figure out.
17. San Francisco Giants
Sim wins: 81.1 (change: -4.1)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 7% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: The continuing excellence of Logan Webb. Webb is an underappreciated star. Already over the 200-inning mark, he also leads the NL in WHIP, fewest walks and strikeout-to-walk ratio. His record is just 10-12 for one reason: The Giants have scored just 2.9 runs per 27 outs with him on the mound.
Biggest failure: Lack of offensive catalysts. The Giants mix and match so often they are going to end up with just three players who qualify for the batting title. The emphasis on matchups is fine when you have good options but this year's Giants have suffered through epic offensive droughts. This big-market franchise badly needs to acquire a couple of bedrock, star-level offensive producers.
18. Boston Red Sox
Sim wins: 80.2 (change: -2.8)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: The youngsters. This season hasn't worked out, but the Chaim Bloom-led renovation of the prospect pipeline is paying dividends. After a slow start, Triston Casas wound up with 24 homers and a 128 OPS+ Jarren Duran had a 120 OPS+ and stole 24 of 26 bases. (Both are out for the season with injuries.) In the rotation, Brayan Bello (still only 24) became Boston's best pitcher. The next lead exec will have plenty to work with.
Biggest failure: Maximizing the now. Look, it's a tough needle to thread. Bloom played the long game, but in Boston, losing the short game will get you. The Red Sox just did not do enough in terms of in-season moves to fortify middling contention opportunities over the past two years.
19. San Diego Padres
Sim wins: 79.6 (change: -3.7)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 1% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Production of the stars. You can reasonably criticize the Padres for inefficient spending. And while the stars that resulted from that spending haven't performed at the top of their respective performance arcs, they have produced enough to win. Juan Soto has a 153 OPS+, 23 homers and 123 walks. Manny Machado was at 111 OPS+ with 28 homers even though he's not healthy. Xander Bogaerts has a 117 OPS+ that is exactly the same as his career mark. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been dynamic and has become a standout at his new defensive position. Blake Snell is a leading Cy Young contender. The stars haven't haven't been the problem.
Biggest failure: Filling out the roster. The Padres just haven't featured quality depth in any area. This has been a particular problem with a bullpen that has struggled even with a top-notch closer in place in Josh Hader. In the lineup, experiments with Matt Carpenter, Rougned Odor, Nelson Cruz and others did not pay off. The Padres are locked into some big payrolls in the seasons to come and the ability of the front office to find adequate role players is going to be crucial going forward.
20. Cleveland Guardians
Sim wins: 77.7 (change: -0.2)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Rookie starters. The Guardians' pitching factory kept turning out quality starters this season. Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams have all enjoyed solid rookie seasons. Bibee has been the AL's top rookie hurler, going 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA over 25 starts. Cleveland ranks eighth in rotation bWAR even though Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie have struggled with injuries. The foundation in Cleveland is pitching and the foundation is strong.
Biggest failure: Balancing the lineup with power. The Guardians tried to repeat last year's success by doubling down on the speed, defense and contact hitting of its position players. But in 2023, you've got to maintain a minimum threshold of power hitting and Cleveland has not done that. Jose Ramirez leads the club with 24 longballs. He'd rank sixth on the Braves. No. 2 Guardians homer hitter is Andres Gimenez with 17. The Braves have nine hitters with at least that many.
21. Detroit Tigers
Sim wins: 76 (change: +5.1)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Setting the foundation. At the very least, Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson have maintained hopes that they will be foundational position players. On the pitching side, the Tigers have plenty of youth, headlined by the progress made this season by Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal. The Tigers have gotten continually better through the season and the team's young players have driven that trajectory. With wide-open payroll space going forward, the Tigers look like a franchise on the cusp of doing exciting things.
Biggest failure: Javier Baez. Baez, not so long ago commonly referred to as baseball's most exciting player, is not one of the exciting things happening in Detroit. Year 2 in Detroit was much, much worse than Year 1, which in itself was disappointing. Baez is hitting .228/.272/.393 as a Tiger, and this year is likely to finish under 1 bWAR while being paid $22 million. Baez is 30 and he's a player who has thrown his body around with abandon during his career. The four remaining years on his deal could be long ones for Detroit. Baez can opt out this winter, but with a 60 OPS+ on the books for this season, it's hard to imagine that happening.
22. New York Mets
Sim wins: 75.6 (change: +2.8)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Hiring David Stearns. It'll be interesting to see how Stearns redirects a franchise with real spending clout. Overhauling the Mets' organizational process is going to take time, however, and the fan base is a wee bit grumpy after this season's colossal collapse. But as a New York guy who grew up a Mets fan and worked in the front office of the organization, at least Stearns knows what he's getting into.
Biggest failure: Stupid money. The Mets have spent roughly $4.6 million per win this season on their way to a battle for fourth place in the NL East. The Orioles have spent around $700,000 per win on their way to the top seed in the AL. Sound decision-making and organizational processes win in the major leagues, even if you're backing that up with financial might. (See: Dodgers.) Mets owner Steven Cohen has now experienced this first hand.
23. Pittsburgh Pirates
Sim wins: 75 (change: +2.9)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: The maturation of Mitch Keller. The rebuild continues to eke forward in Pittsburgh. A leap will need to be made to transform this middling club into a power, one that mirrors the improvement of the formerly erratic Keller. This was his best season in terms of run prevention and workload. He has become the mainstay of the Pittsburgh staff.
Biggest failure: The health of Oneil Cruz. Cruz's fractured fibula isn't the type of failure you can blame someone for. It's just bad luck. The consequences are the same either way, which is that a talented player with a lot of rough edges left in his game lost nearly an entire season, one during which he might have polished off his development. Heck, he even lost his title as baseball's most exciting, super-huge infielder to Cincinnati's Elly De La Cruz. The first big league meeting of those two will be something to look forward to next season.
24. Los Angeles Angels
Sim wins: 73.3 (change: -7.3)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Shohei Ohtani. It ended with a whimper, but for more than half the season, we got to witness Ohtani in full, two-way bloom. Even with his season cut short, he ends up with 44 homers, a 184 OPS+, 167 pitching strikeouts, a 144 ERA+ and 10 bWAR. We may never see the likes of it again. For the Angels, it was a success even though they probably should have traded him when they could have.
Biggest failure: Keeping the stars on the field. Over the past three seasons, Mike Trout has played in 48.8% of the Angels' games. In four years with the Halos, Anthony Rendon has topped out at 58 games played, though his production over the past three seasons (94 OPS+, 1 bWAR) suggest he's no longer a star. Now Ohtani is on the shelf. It's a shame.
25. St. Louis Cardinals
Sim wins: 72.3 (change: -0.5)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Keeping the ball in the yard. This season has been such a massive and comprehensive disappointment for St. Louis that you have to dig pretty deep for a positive. The Cardinals haven't done much well, but they have allowed the lowest opposing home run percentage in the majors.
Biggest failure: Missing bats. In a strikeout era, the Cardinals have often won by swimming upstream in this department. But this season, St. Louis ranks 28th in staff strikeout rate and the club's defense, no longer elite, could not compensate for the spate of balls in play. As a result, only six teams have allowed runs at a worse rate than St. Louis. The Cardinal Way needs to be reconfigured.
26. Washington Nationals
Sim wins: 69.8 (change: -1)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Measurable improvement. The Nats are on pace to slice at least 15 losses off last year's 107-defeat nadir. They've improved on both side of the ball. More important were the identity of those responsible for the improvement, ie., young players. That's the idea behind a rebuild, after all. Keibert Ruiz, CJ Abrams, Josiah Gray and MacKenzie Gore all have work left to do, but they and others look like a solid foundation as the coming waves of Washington talent start to reach the shore.
Biggest failure: Owning the strike zone. For all the changes made in baseball this year, the game still rewards most those who miss bats, take walks, hit the ball out of the park and prevent opponents from doing all of those things. On offense, the Nationals make contact at an elite level, but rank 28th in walk rate and 29th in homer rate. On defense, the Nats are 28th in strikeout rate, 24th in walks and last in homers allowed. These are not the components of a winning formula.
27. Chicago White Sox
Sim wins: 62.6 (change: -5.6)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Salvaging the deadline. Small consolation, but at least the team's midseason subtraction netted a nice haul of prospects to deepen a pipeline badly in need of depth.
Biggest failure: The pipeline. Filling it up will be the going-forward mission of new lead exec Chris Getz. But looking back over the past two disappointing seasons, it's the lack of a pipeline that might have proved fatal to the old regime. The White Sox's rebuild laid a nice foundation of young talent. But when it came to filling around that foundation, Chicago just didn't have enough internal solutions. Then when the foundation showed some cracks, there was nothing on which to fall back.
28. Colorado Rockies
Sim wins: 59.9 (change: -1.5)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: Ezequiel Tovar. This season has been such a slog for Colorado that nationally, it's been easy to overlook Tovar's exciting development. In what is officially his age-21 season, Tovar has already manifested top-tier pop off the bat for a shortstop, though his plate discipline has a (very) long way to go. And his defensive metrics have marked Tovar as one of the game's best-defending shortstops. Before this season, the highest bWAR total for a Rockies hitter in his age-21 season or younger was 0.1 by Rafael Ortega in 2012. Heck, Troy Tulowitzki was at minus-0.4 when he broke in as a 21-year-old. This season, Tovar is at 2.7.
Biggest failure: Kris Bryant. What is it with ex-Cub free agent deals? Bryant's acquisition was decried last season when he had a 128 OPS+ but got into just 42 games. This season, the performance has crashed (87 OPS+) and he's played only 73 contests. So far, his deal looks like a disaster for the Rockies.
29. Kansas City Royals
Sim wins: 53.3 (change: -1.6)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: The improvement of Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals are on their way to a franchise-worst loss total. It's hard to point at any one thing and say that it redeems such a mess, but Witt very much looks like the star he was ordained to be. For a while, it didn't even look like the Royals would have that on which to hang their sagging hats. Through Memorial Day, Witt was hitting .228/.266/.430. Since then, however, he's hit .309/.352/.537 with 19 homers, 63 RBIs and 31 steals in 92 games. His defense has been better as well. Memo to Royals: Sign Witt to an extension now.
Biggest failure: Lack of improvement of the other youngsters. There's been a lot of failures on this roster. Say what you will about won-lost records but the Royals have four pitchers (Jordan Lyles, Zack Greinke, Carlos Hernandez and Alec Marsh) who have gone a combined 7-50. That is not a typo. But, really, the bigger concern is that of a group of promising young hitters that includes Witt, Drew Waters, MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto, Witt is the only one who has shown any real progress at the plate. Vinnie Pasquantino looked good early but slumped before hitting the IL in June with a season-ending shoulder injury. Getting these players to approach their respective ceilings should be high up on the to-do list of this organization.
30. Oakland Athletics
Sim wins: 50.2 (change: +2.6)
Probabilities: 0% (division), 0% (playoffs), 0% (title)
Biggest success: The greening of the roster. Historically, when the Athletics bottom out, they don't mess around. Baseball's vagabond franchise is also its roller coaster franchise. But the 2023 A's, who early on looked like a good bet to challenge the all-time loss record, have gotten better through the season and they've done so by promoting young players. Zack Gelof didn't debut until after the All-Star break, but he's been Oakland's best player for the season as a whole. Ryan Noda, Mason Miller and other rookies have chipped in as well. It's too soon to call it a foundation, but at least it looks like Oakland has used its lost season wisely.
Biggest failure: Clarifying the path forward. If there are no glitches in the upcoming vote on the Athletics' potential move to Las Vegas, at least that much will be known. But as we await an actual venue for the A's to be built, there are more seasons to be played by a franchise that's already squandered too many. Will their old and new fans alike have to endure much more of this endless limbo? Or, with the ultimate fate of the franchise now known, will ownership allow real investment in the big league roster? Just asking.