New York Yankees? Goodbye and good night. Los Angeles Angels? See you next season ... with or without Shohei Ohtani. San Diego Padres? We're crossing you off the list; too many teams to climb over. That still leaves 17 teams in the postseason picture -- 18 if you want to count the Cleveland Guardians, but until they get to .500 we're going to ignore them.
So, here's what each of those 17 teams needs to do between now and October.
National League
1. Atlanta Braves: Secure the No. 1 seed
Ever since they thundered through June with a 21-4 record, it seemed fait accompli that the Braves would end up with the best record not only in the NL but across the majors. The Dodgers' hot month in August has put a little pressure on them, so manager Brian Snitker continues to ride his regulars as Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley have yet to miss a game (and neither had Ozzie Albies until he landed on the injured list last week). Expect that group to post every day, while the Braves perhaps back off the workload of their top pitchers a bit. They have actually been pretty cautious there all season. Spencer Strider, for example, has made just six starts on four days of rest, with three of those coming in April.
How important is locking up the best record? As you might expect with the MLB playoffs, it doesn't guarantee anything. Over the previous 10 years, four teams with the best overall record won the World Series -- the 2020 Dodgers, 2018 Red Sox, 2016 Cubs and 2013 Red Sox (who tied with the Cardinals, the team they beat in the World Series). But four others lost in the division series -- the 2022 Dodgers, 2021 Giants, 2015 Cardinals and 2014 Angels. The other two lost the World Series. The Braves have played nearly as well on the road as they have at home, but you'd love that decisive game to be at home if necessary.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers: Figure out the bullpen pecking order
The Dodgers have separated themselves in the NL West and have a comfortable hold on the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. The additions of Enrique Hernandez and Amed Rosario give manager Dave Roberts more flexibility and lineup balance. With Clayton Kershaw back and Lance Lynn looking good since coming over from the Chicago White Sox, the rotation is in the best shape it's been all season, if not quite to the level that we're used to seeing from the Dodgers.
That leaves the bullpen for Roberts to figure out down the stretch. Will Ryan Brasier and Joe Kelly pitch themselves into high-average roles? Can Caleb Ferguson be trusted as the top lefty? Does Evan Phillips, who has rarely pitched on back-to-back days, have the rubber arm to survive a long postseason run? Remember, a season ago the Dodgers faced a similarly unsettled bullpen situation heading into the playoffs and would give important innings to Blake Treinen and Tommy Kahnle, who both had barely pitched after coming back from injuries. They combined to allow four runs in three innings while Brusdar Graterol and Yency Almonte would pick up losses in the division series loss to the Padres.
3. Milwaukee Brewers: Keep Freddy Peralta hot
The Brewers are going to scratch and claw for the few runs they do score, so they'll have to continue winning close games -- they're 25-11 in one-run games -- to hold on to their NL Central lead. Brandon Woodruff has now made three starts after being out since April and Corbin Burnes has a 2.34 ERA since the beginning of July, but Peralta looms as a huge key, giving them a third dependable starter. He's in the midst of one of his patented hot streaks and just dominated the hard-hitting Rangers with 11 strikeouts in 5⅔ innings on Saturday (part of an 18-strikeout combo for the Brewers). He also had 13-strikeout games against the Rockies and Reds in the past month and three scoreless outings since the All-Star break. He's now fifth in the majors in strikeout rate and first since the All-Star break.
4. Philadelphia Phillies: Get Aaron Nola out of his funk
The Phillies lead the wild-card race, and while nobody behind them is exactly making a run, it feels like they have missed the opportunity to put more distance between themselves and the other wild-card contenders. It's time for the stars to step up, and that starts with Nola and Kyle Schwarber. Nola bet on himself in his walk year, but it hasn't been his best season -- he has a 4.49 ERA and 29 home runs allowed. The Phillies would love to line him up as the No. 2 starter in a playoff series behind Zack Wheeler, but he hasn't really earned that trust -- not that the Phillies have a clear No. 2 at this point. Though, of course, the Phillies have to get there first.
With Ranger Suarez just landing on the IL, the Phillies are back to a five-man rotation in the meantime, putting an even bigger spotlight on the starters -- and Nola. He's not that much different from last season, ranking 15th among starters in lowest OBP allowed and in the 93rd percentile in chase rate. His slugging percentage has increased against both his four-seamer and his curveball, and there's been a decrease in swing-and-miss rate on both those pitches (around 5% on the curveball and 3% on the fastball). It's a small thing, but such is the fine line between pitching like a No. 1 or 2 or like a guy with a 4.49 ERA.
5. Chicago Cubs: Improve starting pitching
The Cubs have managed to go 12-7 in August even though they've allowed fewer than four runs just five times in those 19 games. The rotation has a 5.23 ERA in August and has allowed the third-most runs in the majors -- with news a few days ago that Marcus Stroman wouldn't be returning from the IL due to a rarely seen rib cage cartilage fracture, putting the rest of his season in jeopardy. Justin Steele remains the bright spot, but the Cubs haven't even needed a fifth starter the past two cycles through their rotation because of off-days. They don't have an off-day now until Aug. 31 -- after which they play a critical doubleheader in Cincinnati on Sept. 1.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks: Get the back of the rotation to step up
We were about to write off the Diamondbacks when they lost nine in a row to start August, but they've responded with nine wins in their next 11 games, including a two-game series sweep of the Rangers. It was nice to see Corbin Carroll get five hits in Saturday's doubleheader as he has been struggling of late -- he's now gone 25 games without a home run. But the key remains the three-fifths of the rotation who aren't Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. The Diamondbacks are 18th in the majors in rotation ERA at 4.57 -- and it's over 5.00 when Gallen and Kelly aren't starting. A non-Gallen/Kelly starter hasn't won a game since Ryne Nelson on July 19 -- and he has since been sent back to the minors.
7. San Francisco Giants: Find some runs
The warning signs were there when the Giants lost series to the A's and Angels earlier in August -- and that was before the schedule got more difficult. They've followed up with losing series against the Rangers, Rays and Braves, with series against the Phillies, Braves and Reds upcoming. The Giants are last in the majors in runs in August while hitting just .223/.294/.336. Desperate for some offense, they even called up center fielder Wade Meckler, an eighth-round pick in 2022 out of Oregon State who was hitting .379 in the minors. He wasn't an immediate fix, going 3-for-17 with one run and 11 strikeouts in his first five games.
8. Cincinnati Reds: Keep the rookies from feeling the pressure
The Reds are currently starting four rookies on a regular basis -- Elly De La Cruz, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand, who hit the walk-off home run in Friday's dramatic 1-0 win over the Blue Jays -- and just called up Noelvi Marte when Kevin Newman landed on the IL. The rotation now features three rookies in Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson and Buddy Kennedy. After going 33-20 in June and July, the Reds are just 6-12 in August, however, and haven't won three games in a row since July 23 -- and they're about to embark on a 10-game road trip against the Angels, Diamondbacks and Giants. It's asking a lot of such a young group, but even if the Reds fall short this season, the rookies are gaining invaluable experience for what looks like a bright future in Cincinnati.
9. Miami Marlins: Have Josh Bell and Jake Burger keep hitting
General manager Kim Ng's trade deadline acquisitions have provided a huge lift to an offense that needed power. Bell and Burger have been outstanding in their first three weeks with the club, both posting an OPS over .950 in their first 19 games with Miami. Jorge Soler has also been hot with eight home runs in August. Unfortunately, Luis Arraez has hit a cold spell with a .235 average and .244 on-base percentage this month and for some reason the Marlins keep insisting that Avisail Garcia has something to contribute despite his hitting .143 with no home runs in August. Saturday's doubleheader loss to the Dodgers with twin scores of 3-1 was tough to take, with Eury Perez's six scoreless innings in the first game wasted.
American League
1. Baltimore Orioles: Have Grayson Rodriguez finish strong
The rookie right-hander began the season as perhaps the top pitching prospect in the game but was sent back to the minors at the end of May after posting a 7.35 ERA through 10 starts. He returned to the rotation after the All-Star break and has a 3.24 ERA in seven starts and just had his best outing as a major leaguer last week, allowing three hits and one run in seven innings against the Padres. He basically ditched his cutter upon his return and is throwing more sliders -- especially in his starts against the Padres and Astros this month, when he threw it more than 30% of the time. As the Orioles look to hold off the Rays in the AL East, they would love for somebody to step up behind Kyle Bradish as the No. 2 starter -- and right now it looks like Rodriguez.
2. Texas Rangers: Get Nathan Eovaldi healthy -- and win some one-run games
The first order of business is getting Eovaldi back to the rotation. He's set to throw to live hitters this week after three bullpen sessions as he returns from a forearm strain. Eovaldi was perhaps the leading Cy Young contender before going down, and if he returns to form in September, he and Max Scherzer will give the Rangers a dynamic one-two punch.
Here's something else to watch: The Rangers are just 9-17 in one-run games. Is that a concern? After all, when facing better teams in the playoffs, they will presumably play more close games, and they haven't fared well in those contests. So, could be something, could be nothing. Here's how the past 10 World Series champs did in one-run games in the regular season:
2022 Astros: 28-16
2021 Braves: 26-31
2020 Dodgers: 7-5
2019 Nationals: 17-21
2018 Red Sox: 25-14
2017 Astros: 19-13
2016 Cubs: 22-23
2015 Royals: 23-17
2014 Giants: 18-22
2013 Red Sox: 21-21
Guess what? It's not a significant indicator of playoff success. Four of the 10 World Series champs had losing records in one-run games. You can easily turn that around in the postseason. The Braves went 4-2 in one-run games in the 2021 playoffs, the Nationals went 2-0 in 2019, the Cubs 4-3 in 2016 and the Giants 5-2 in 2014. Still, if the Rangers want to hold off the Astros and the hard-charging Mariners in the AL West, they might need to win a few more one-run games down the stretch.
3. Minnesota Twins: Get the bullpen to dominate
The Twins are a safe bet to win the AL Central, although that says more about the Guardians than it does the Twins. Minnesota's offense has been much better in the second half, and the rotation has been solid all season, but if the Twins are to make some noise in the playoffs, the bullpen will have to get on a roll. Given they lead the majors in strikeouts, I wouldn't expect them to do much damage against the better pitching they'll see in the playoffs, so that means they'll need to win low-scoring games -- and the bullpen will have to pitch a lot of zeroes.
The ability is there. Jhoan Duran averages 101.7 mph with his fastball, but he has allowed six home runs and has four blown saves and five losses. He needs to be the Twins' version of Felix Bautista, where you feel the game is over once he enters. Griffin Jax throws 96 mph with a sweeper, although he doesn't generate a ton of swings-and-misses for a late-game reliever. He has been fine, but he has seven losses and has allowed four home runs in his past 12 innings. Emilio Pagan has a sub-1.00 WHIP, and Dylan Floro came over from the Marlins for Jorge Lopez and will get some high-leverage work. There is depth here and the bullpen has been OK, but it needs to rise to the next level.
4. Tampa Bay Rays: Clean up in their next 11 games
The Rays stumbled to an 8-16 record in July, but they've rebounded to go 12-7 in their past 19 games -- even as the Wander Franco investigation forced them to improvise with rookie Osleivis Basabe at shortstop as Franco has been placed on administrative leave. Basabe held his own his first week in the majors, and while he's not going to put up Franco's numbers, I don't think the position will be a disaster. With Shane McClanahan out for the season, the rotation is obviously a concern once you get past Tyler Glasnow, Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale.
That's why the next stretch is vital for the Rays -- whether to catch the Orioles or to maintain a firm hold on the top wild-card spot. They're home for six games against the Rockies and slumping Yankees and then have two in Miami and three in Cleveland. They can give themselves a little breathing room with an 8-3 or 7-4 stretch -- which they'll need since their next four series are against the Red Sox, Mariners, Twins and Orioles, with six of their final eight games against the Blue Jays.
5. Houston Astros: Have Framber Valdez figure out what's wrong
Other than his no-hitter against Cleveland on Aug. 1, Valdez has been terrible of late. The Mariners hit rockets all over the place against him on Saturday in pounding out 10 hits with a hard-hit rate of 67%. Before that it was four runs and two home runs against the Marlins, six runs and two home runs against the Orioles, eight hits and six runs in 3⅔ innings against the Rangers, four runs against the A's and five runs against the Angels. That's a 6.18 ERA over seven starts with nine home runs allowed -- and a no-hitter tossed in.
His frustration showed against the Mariners when he clearly threw at Jose Caballero after serving up a home run. Valdez described his outing as "trash." His sinker has lost four inches of drop compared to last season and it has lacked depth in the second half compared to his first half, when he posted a 2.51 ERA. The Astros are still hunting the Rangers, but with their ace struggling, they're suddenly in a battle with the Mariners and Blue Jays for two wild-card spots as well.
6. Seattle Mariners: Get Matt Brash and Andres Munoz to lock down the eighth and ninth
This could be "let Julio Rodriguez put the team on his back," which he has done lately, including his record-breaking 17 hits over a four-game stretch, but the perplexing trade of closer Paul Sewald has raised concerns about the late innings -- even as the team continues to win. The Mariners had a recent five-game stretch in which: (1) Munoz lost a game in the 10th inning; (2) Munoz gave up a run in a tie game in the ninth (the Mariners tied it but lost in the 10th); (3) Brash blew a 6-5 lead in the ninth; (4) Munoz blew a three-run lead in the ninth (although the Mariners won in the 10th); (5) Brash gave up a home run in the ninth but held on to win 6-5. Munoz did save Friday's 2-0 win over the Astros after giving up two hits but escaping with a double play. Bottom line: It's been a nail-biting time with these two. There is little margin for any more blown leads.
7. Toronto Blue Jays: Find some mojo on offense
Some of the Blue Jays' perceived disappointing results on offense can certainly be traced to the realignment of the outfield fences at Rogers Centre. They're hitting .259 and slugging .416 on the road compared to .252 and .398 at home after having near identical splits last season and better stats at home in 2021. Still, even accounting for that, the offense has had its worst month of the season in August, hitting .245/.321/.399. Paul DeJong has been a disaster filling in for Bo Bichette, going 3-for-44, but Santiago Espinal, Alejandro Kirk, Matt Chapman and Danny Jansen have all hit under .200 in August while Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has one home run and a .693 OPS over his past 25 games. The upcoming schedule is favorable: After a three-game series in Baltimore that begins Tuesday, the Jays play the Guardians, Nationals, Rockies, A's and Royals in their next five series. The offense better kick into gear against those teams.
8. Boston Red Sox: Get James Paxton and Chris Sale to pitch well
A lot is riding on the two veteran left-handers with precarious health histories. Paxton's season didn't begin until May 12 -- right about the time Sale went on the IL. Sale returned this month, so they're both in the rotation now as the Red Sox look to make a wild-card run from behind. In his first start after coming off the IL, Sale averaged 94.5 mph with his fastball, but that fell all the way to 91.8 in his second start, when he exited in the fifth inning after 65 pitches. So ... we'll have to see with him. Paxton has been pretty solid all season with a 3.79 ERA, although he has been more hittable of late with a .330 average and six home runs allowed over his past four starts (he had managed to mostly pitch around it, allowing just six runs in three games before giving up seven in his latest start). If those two finish strong, the Red Sox have a puncher's chance.