Since the infamous "chicken and beer" Boston Red Sox collapsed in September 2011 to miss the playoffs, the franchise has vacillated between success (World Series titles in 2013 and 2018) and disappointment (five last-place finishes since 2012). The 2023 Red Sox are a hybrid of the past decade: surprising at times, frustrating at others, still in the playoff race -- three games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the third American League wild card -- but hardly a serious World Series contender.
With the Red Sox hosting the New York Mets on Sunday Night Baseball (7 ET, ESPN), here is what we are learning about a franchise striving to become a consistent World Series threat but still figuring out how to get there.
A new core is taking shape
For the first time since the 2018 championship team, the Red Sox have a reasonably young core emerging. Jarren Duran has had an exciting breakout season, Masataka Yoshida has been a hitting machine in his first year after starring in Japan, Rafael Devers signed to a long-term extension that runs through 2033, Triston Casas has shown signs that he'll be a productive first baseman and Brayan Bello has looked like the best homegrown starting pitcher the Red Sox have developed in over a decade. Yoshida, who just turned 30, is the only member of that group who is older than 26.
Duran has been one of the biggest surprises. In 91 games in 2021 and 2022, he was simply overmatched: .219/.269/.354 with 18 walks and 103 strikeouts in 335 plate appearances. Despite game-breaking speed in center field, he also suffered occasional defensive lapses where he would just lose the ball. I certainly didn't expect anything from him; the Red Sox didn't either -- he started the season in the minors.
Now he's hitting .315/.367/.516 with 29 doubles in 78 games. He's a blur on the bases and has provided the Red Sox with bolts of energy they've sort of lacked since trading Mookie Betts prior to the 2020 season. Duran credits some of his performance to spring training advice from Boston icon Dustin Pedroia, who basically told him to get mad at the plate, hold his hands higher and swing like he's going to crush the baseball. Perhaps with a little more flowery language included.
It's not really that simple, of course. Duran's average exit velocity is slightly up from last season (89.7 mph versus 89.3), but he has made minor improvements across the board: He has lowered his chase rate, improved his in-zone contact rate, cut down on strikeouts and increased his launch angle. That has led to an impressive rate of doubles -- more than a fair share in which he has utilized his speed to stretch singles into two-baggers. Like many past left-handed Red Sox hitters, Duran has learned how to benefit from the Green Monster. He's hit .361/.425/.615 at home compared to .273/.309/.424 on the road.
Is the improvement real? Statcast data suggests he's overperforming compared to his expected batted ball data (.269 average, .404 slugging). Statcast underestimates his slugging since it doesn't account for the hustle doubles. And no, I don't believe he will finish at .312, but Duran has taken the right steps forward for more improvement. He turns 27 in September. I hope he keeps up the doubles-heavy approach rather than trying to hit more home runs, but he should remain an integral part of the lineup for the next four or five years.
Yoshida is a lot of fun. He's hitting .319/.381/.501 with just 42 strikeouts in 86 games, the sixth-lowest rate in the majors. I thought he'd walk more -- he has only 28 walks after earning 80 in Japan last season -- but you can't complain about a .381 OBP. Yes, his mediocre defense chips away at his overall play. Many in the game questioned the $90 million deal Yoshida signed, but it looks like the Red Sox bet correctly.
Bello's breakout might be the most important, even if it's arguably the least surprising. He was highly rated coming up through the Red Sox system, and the 24-year-old appears to have figured it out after he allowed a .315 batting average as a rookie in 57⅓ innings last season.
Bello might become the first homegrown Red Sox starter to win 10 games in a season since Jon Lester in 2014 (Eduardo Rodriguez debuted in the majors with the Red Sox, but he came over in a trade with the Orioles). It's hard to be like the Braves, Dodgers or Astros when you can't develop starting pitching.
I don't see ace potential, but the Red Sox need a reliable No. 2 or 3 starter who can give them 30 starts a season given the rest of Boston's options.
How far can this team really go?
Boston's rotation ranks 26th in the majors with a 4.80 ERA, even with Bello's emergence. Chris Sale, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Corey Kluber are on the injured list. Nick Pivetta is being used as a bulk reliever out of the bullpen after struggling as a starter in April and May (he has allowed four runs in 15 innings in that role with 27 strikeouts, although much of that came by striking out 21 batters in 11 innings against the lowly A's). It was certainly a high-risk rotation from the get-go, given the health histories of pitchers like Sale, James Paxton and Kluber, and it's a risk that hasn't paid off.
Those issues have meant chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and manager Alex Cora had to scramble all season, churning through 14 starting pitchers. While Paxton will draw interest from other contenders if Boston decides to deal him at the trade deadline, Buster Olney said on his podcast Friday that the Red Sox are expected to add rotation help -- maybe bringing back a veteran like Rich Hill.
Look, there's a chance the Red Sox can get a second-half boost from Sale, Whitlock and others combined with some deadline help, but if the starting pitching continues to disappoint it's difficult to see Boston going on the kind of run needed to get into the heart of the wild-card race.
The most frustrating issue for Red Sox fans is the team's inconsistency, which isn't surprising with the patchwork rotation. The Red Sox are 12-1 against the Blue Jays and Yankees, but just 1-7 against the Rays and have been swept by the Cardinals, Pirates and Marlins. They'll get on a little roll like they did earlier this month and then lose 3-0 and 6-5 to the A's on Tuesday and Wednesday, to stop any momentum. But that's what .500 teams do.
How this crossroads will shape Boston's future
In a sense, the 2023 Red Sox are at this point because of what happened in the aftermath of the 2018 Red Sox's World Series run. Dave Dombrowski, then-president of baseball operations, built if not the most famous team in Red Sox history, then perhaps the greatest. The team won a franchise-record 108 games and steamrolled through the playoffs, beating the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers while losing just three postseason games.
Within a year, Dombrowski was fired. He had been hired to construct a World Series winner and did that, signing free agents, trading prospects and running up the highest payrolls in the sport in 2018 and 2019. Dombrowski's forte during his long and potential Hall of Fame career, however, has been building winners and not necessarily maintaining them. When the 2019 Red Sox stumbled -- Sale, David Price and Nathan Eovaldi, who were then owed a combined $292 million, all got injured -- owner John Henry fired Dombrowski in September.
Henry and chairman Tom Werner, intent on making payroll cuts to get under the luxury tax threshold for 2020, said they fired Dombrowski because of differing opinions on how to build for the future. They hired Bloom, who inherited an older team with a bloated payroll and a depleted farm system with orders to spend less.
In a city where losing is not accepted.
Bloom has spent four seasons trying to juggle remaining competitive while also reconstructing a farm system that Kiley McDaniel had ranked No. 27 in the majors before the 2020 season. Bloom's first order: Trade the popular superstar Betts, who had one year remaining until free agency and whom the team hadn't been able to sign to a long-term deal.
The pandemic-season Red Sox were terrible after trading Betts and having Cora suspended for the season because of his conduct as Houston's bench coach during the Astros' sign-stealing scandal. The 2021 Red Sox reached the ALCS, losing to the Astros in six games. The 2022 Red Sox fell to 78-84 and were generally viewed as a .500 team going into the season after losing Xander Bogaerts and Eovaldi in free agency. In that sense, this season's Red Sox have kind of been what we expected.
That hasn't eased the cries from Red Sox Nation to either fire Bloom or to blame ownership for not spending like it did in 2018 and 2019. Trying to rebuild and contend at the same time is no easy task, and Bloom has done a fair job of straddling that line -- the six-year, $140 million contract he handed to Trevor Story being the one exception -- by sticking mostly to short-term deals initially in order to not hamstring future payroll.
The farm system is now in the best shape it's been since it delivered Bogaerts, Betts, Andrew Benintendi and Devers from 2013 to 2017. When McDaniel updated his MLB prospect rankings at the end of May, shortstop Marcelo Mayer ranked third and outfielder Roman Anthony ranked 49th (and Anthony's stock has risen since then as he has posted a 1.255 OPS since his promotion to High-A ball after turning 19 in May). Center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela is a top-100 prospect who has reached Triple-A and second baseman Nick Yorke has had a rebound season, hitting well in Double-A.
The Red Sox have drafted well, including having Mayer, whom some considered the best player in the 2021 draft, fall to them with the No. 4 pick. Getting Anthony in the second round last year could end up being the steal of the 2022 draft. The Red Sox selected Virginia catcher Kyle Teel with the 14th overall pick of this month's draft, in what some say is another steal.
In the end, staying at the edge of the race with a highly ranked farm system won't erase the questions in a city that wants to win now. How the 2023 Red Sox are judged will come down to the answer to one simple question: Did they make the playoffs?
Given the state of the rotation, it feels unlikely at best. Maybe that changes with a couple of deadline moves followed by a 10-game homestand starting Aug. 4 against Toronto, Kansas City and Detroit -- a chance to make up ground on the Jays while cleaning up on the Royals and Tigers (though road trips to Yankee Stadium and Houston follow). Red Sox fans are certainly frustrated with the murky state of the 2023 season, but even if this season ends in disappointment, the franchise seems headed to more consistent winning.