Welcome to the beginning of the middle of the 2023 MLB season. Much has changed since we first tried to slot teams into their expected destinies before the season. That's been great for some teams (Texas Rangers, Arizona Diamondbacks) and not so great for others (St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox).
Now comes what is, in many ways, the most fascinating part of the season, when teams look to overcome slow starts, maintain hot ones or, for the majority, simply try to figure out how good their rosters really are. It's this last area that most concerns us today as we begin to glance ahead at the end of next month and an Aug. 1 trade deadline that has just emerged over the season's horizon.
As has become a quasi-tradition in our June editions of Stock Watch, we're going to take our initial peek at the looming deadline. Teams have been placed in tiers according to the level of aggressiveness they figure to display when it comes to positioning for a playoff run this season. At this point, more than a few teams don't fit easy classification and this picture can -- and almost certainly will -- evolve over the weeks to come.
Note: Teams are ranked by their current chances to make the postseason, odds that are impacted by a team's power ranking, remaining schedule and the strength of division. The power rankings are based on a formula that considers record, run differential, roster strength, schedule, trajectory and other factors. The ratings serve as the basis for 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule, which gives us projected win totals and postseason probabilities.
Jump to ...
Full speed ahead | Staying with the flow of traffic | Idling
Waiting for the light to change | Parked for now | Tow zone
AGGRESSION TIER I: Full speed ahead
These clubs have playoff probabilities high enough at this point to all but ensure an aggressive deadline approach.
Tampa Bay Rays
Playoff chances: 100% (92% division | 21% title)
Sim wins: 105.7 (1st) | Last watch: 107.5 (1st)
Why they will add: The Rays have cooled some after a historically blistering start. How could they not? Still, Tampa Bay has maintained a 111-to-113 win pace that is completely undergirded by their run differential. They've battled injuries, as have most teams, though the losses in the rotation of Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen were particularly brutal. The schedule over the past month was one of the Rays' tougher stretches of the campaign, which hasn't helped. When the dust settles, the Rays will still be jostling for the best record in baseball and by the end of July should be able to make targeted additions to the pitching staff, depending how their health outlook evolves. It's not a splashy idea but this is not a club that needs to be splashy to remain well-positioned for a deep October run.
Atlanta Braves
Playoff chances: 99% (95% division | 18% title)
Sim wins: 97.9 (3rd) | Last watch: 101.4 (2nd)
Why they will add: The foundation of the Braves looks as rock solid as ever, with supreme performances from Ronald Acuna Jr. and Spencer Strider marking Atlanta as a prime World Series contender. Under the hood, things look a bit more uneven as a rocket-ship start to the season began to fade around the middle of May as the injuries mounted, particularly to the rotation. The Braves have maintained their perch in the NL East at least in part because their anticipated challengers (New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies) have yet to mount a consistent charge. By the deadline, the Braves should have a more fixed idea of their needs as the injured pitchers hopefully work their way back. Right now, the Braves' team defense looks like a weakness and they have scrambled a bit in the bullpen. With injury luck, the acuity of those cracks in the mortar will be clear by late July.
Texas Rangers
Playoff chances: 99% (80% division | 21% title)
Sim wins: 102.4 (2nd) | Last watch: 93.9 (4th)
Why they will add: No team has improved its outlook more from the preseason than the Rangers, whose wrecking-ball offense has maintained a 1,000-plus run pace since the beginning of May. Marcus Semien is a leading AL MVP candidate, though Corey Seager might be the frontrunner had he not missed time with injury. Nathan Eovaldi has been baseball's best pitcher, and Josh Jung is a prime Rookie of the Year candidate. And, while we're at it, wouldn't Bruce Bochy be a shoo-in for AL Manager of the Year right now? It is shaping up as one of those everything-has-come-together seasons in Texas and since the Houston Astros aren't going anywhere in the AL West, the Rangers have to maximize this opportunity. A healthy return by Jacob deGrom would have been the best addition the Rangers could make, but this week's announcement of his impending Tommy John surgery at least provides clarity. Dane Dunning has done a sterling job in his place and if that continues, the Rangers should scour the lands far and wide for every useful reliever they can find over the next few weeks.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Playoff chances: 95% (65% division | 10% title)
Sim wins: 92.7 (5th) | Last watch: 94.6 (3rd)
Why they will add: Even in a year of relative transition in Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers remain a pennant-seeking juggernaut with the upward trajectory of a team with a lot of young players. It's also a team with room to improve via trade, and the Dodgers have the prospect depth to make almost any deal happen. It's really a matter of how aggressive they want to get. Possible target areas include shortstop (Tim Anderson?), the bullpen (Alex Lange, Scott Barlow, Aroldis Chapman?) and maybe center field (um ... Cody Bellinger? Dylan Carlson?). As with all contenders, rotation trade candidates have to be pondered but by the end of July, and depending on the hoped-for returns of Julio Urias and Dustin May, the Dodgers will be able to sit out what might be a supercharged sector of the trade deadline.
Houston Astros
Playoff chances: 89% (19% division | 7% title)
Sim wins: 95.1 (4th) | Last watch: 90.6 (5th)
Why they will add: The early success of the Rangers means the Astros will have to stay sharp if they hope to retain their AL West crown. After a so-so start, the Astros have leveraged stifling run prevention and a soft part of the schedule into a familiar place high up in the AL pecking order. The offense has been upticking more than surging during this stretch, with the glaring hole being Jose Abreu's cratering production. The contract he signed over the offseason probably guarantees a long leash, but if Abreu is still slugging under .300 in a month, will Houston have any choice but to target a bat? Elsewhere, the pitching depth is as admirable as ever, but if the health outlooks of Jose Urquidy and Lance McCullers Jr. remain murky, you could see the Astros look to bolster the rotation from the outside.
Minnesota Twins
Playoff chances: 85% (85% division | 3% title)
Sim wins: 86.8 (10th) | Last watch: 88.7 (7th)
Why they will add: If the Twins had played up to their run differential, they could be leading their lousy division by double-digit games by this point. Instead, the well-under-.500 Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox are all one hot week away from challenging Minnesota for the AL Central lead. The Twins have been one of baseball's best run-prevention clubs, though their 6-11 record in one-run games speaks to an overall need to better manage leveraged situations. This isn't really something that can be addressed at the deadline. In that regard, the Twins' approach can be brought into focus by consistent availability and production from Max Kepler and Carlos Correa. If that happens, and Byron Buxton works his way back to playing in center field, Minnesota can target an impact bat, a slugger who would figure into the DH-1B-LF-RF mix.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Playoff chances: 80% (23% division | 3% title)
Sim wins: 88.0 (8th) | Last watch: 82.2 (16th)
Why they will add: Many of us flagged the Diamondbacks as sleeper contenders before the season, and Arizona has gone on to prove those speculations to be on the money. This team is for real, with power, speed, collective bat-on-ball skills and top-of-the-charts defense. Led by super rookie Corbin Carroll, the Diamondbacks have emerged as must-watch baseball. You might notice that all of these descriptions apply to the position group. The Diamondbacks' pitching staff features perhaps baseball's best one-two rotation combo in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly. That's a great foundation, but beyond that, it's mostly question marks, at least for a team with division-title upside. There are a number of young hurlers seeking to establish themselves who have already made appearances, but Arizona might want some veteran stability in the rotation, beyond the big two. And like MLB's other emergent contender, Texas, Arizona needs to cast a very wide net in search of bullpen help.
New York Yankees
Playoff chances: 77% (5% division | 4% title)
Sim wins: 92.3 (6th) | Last watch: 87.4 (9th)
Why they will add: The Yankees are almost always in add mode, and this summer will be no different. The bigger question surrounds who the Yankees might target and that is hard to answer right now. A starting rotation that has best-in-the-majors potential is a giant question mark because of injuries past, present and future. How will Luis Severino progress now that he's back from the IL? Will Carlos Rodon finally make his pinstripes debut? Is Nestor Cortes' shoulder problem a blip or an alarm? The evolution of these issues will determine how aggressive New York will be in pursuing help in this area. Meanwhile, the bullpen has been very good, but no one has established himself as a ninth-inning hammer, and that might be an area to look at. (Liam Hendriks? If the ChiSox are dealing, then sure. Aroldis Chapman? Highly, highly doubtful.)
AGGRESSION TIER II: Staying with the flow of traffic
These clubs are well-positioned for playoff contention and have rosters worth bolstering over the weeks ahead. But their middling probabilities also mean a collapse over the next few weeks could shift them down a tier or two and flip their trade strategy. Then again: They could move up with a hot stretch.
Milwaukee Brewers
Playoff chances: 60% (49% division | 1% title)
Sim wins: 83.8 (11th) | Last watch: 87.5 (8th)
Why they will probably add: The Brewers have led the NL Central for much of the season and still look like the most complete club in the soft division. The offense has struggled but the run prevention has been terrific, especially considering that one co-ace has been injured (Brandon Woodruff) and the other got off to a slow start (Corbin Burnes). The runs-allowed numbers really are even better than they appear on the surface because of the way Craig Counsell matches up pitchers with situations. No team has allowed a higher percentage of its runs in low-leverage spots. But if the Brewers are going to hold onto the division lead and be an actual threat in the playoffs, they'll need Woodruff back at some point and they will need to upgrade the offense. Prospect Sal Frelick is on the mend after a hand injury but could help in the outfield sooner than later. But the Brewers need a splashy bat, whether it's another first baseman or a DH who wouldn't mess with the terrific defense. But the middle of this order needs something.
Toronto Blue Jays
Playoff chances: 60% (2% division | 2% title)
Sim wins: 89.5 (7th) | Last watch: 90.1 (6th)
Why they will probably add: Did Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah stumble into some kind of "Freaky Friday" vortex? Last year, it was Berrios who inexplicably struggled, leading the AL in earned runs after spending a half-decade establishing himself as one of the league's most consistent starters. Meanwhile, Manoah broke out with a 16-7, 2.24 ERA campaign that landed him a No. 3 showing the AL Cy Young balloting. Now Berrios is back to what he was, pre-2022, and Manoah's walk rate has nearly tripled. His struggles worsened to the point that Toronto shipped him off to the team's rookie complex so Manoah could try to gather himself out of the big-league glare. Kevin Gausman has been as good as anybody and Chris Bassitt has been everything the Blue Jays could have hoped for. If Toronto could get Berrios and Manoah rolling at the same time, that would be a championship-level rotation and would erase the "probably" equivocation from their deadline status. That wouldn't be there anyway, except that in a division where a .500 record isn't going to get you out of last place, there is no margin for error.
San Diego Padres
Playoff chances: 49% (7% division | 2% title)
Sim wins: 82.7 (13th) | Last watch: 86.4 (10th)
Why they will probably add: The Padres are way better than this, right? Manny Machado will get it going, right? The offense will roll at some point, right? The deadline needs will narrow down to the rotation and catcher, once this all comes together and the bullpen gets healthier, right? Sorry for the uncertainty, but this is one befuddling team. And if the answer to these questions is "no" then the all-the-way-in Padres might be looking for a way out.
AGGRESSION TIER III: Idling
These teams could move in either direction. Most of them fall into one of two classes. Some are surprise successes whose projection still portends a falling off as we get deeper into the season. Others were expected contenders who have so far disappointed but have enough projection left to believe they might salvage the season.
San Francisco Giants
Playoff chances: 44% (5% division | 1% title)
Sim wins: 82.2 (14th) | Last watch: 77.9 (21st)
Why they could go either way: In couple of ways, the Giants aren't in a bad spot. They are .500-ish with a positive run differential, and while they might ultimately be the fourth-best team in the strong NL West, in this year's NL, that doesn't shut them out of postseason contention. They don't have any glaring overachievers but among the underachievers, it's reasonable to hope for much more from the likes of Mitch Haniger, Brandon Crawford and Sean Manaea. The Giants are really well-positioned to continue their strategy of improvement by careful-but-persistent attrition. And that makes them a candidate to make a major splash if the opportunity surfaces and they are willing to ante up their top prospects.
Baltimore Orioles
Playoff chances: 43% (1% division | 1% title)
Sim wins: 87.6 (9th) | Last watch: 85.5 (11th)
Why they could go either way: The Orioles look like a bona fide contender at this point of their nearly complete rebuilding process. The two things driving down their probabilities are the strength of the AL East and the emergence of the Rangers, which makes the West a likely two-playoff-team division. Still, if the Orioles continue at their current pace, the thing that would bring this roster into focus more than any other would be a top-of-the-rotation ace. Perhaps someone like Milwaukee's Brandon Woodruff or Corbin Burnes would make sense, if the Brewers repeat their 2022 deadline approach of straddling long-term and short-term needs. But if a true ace does become available, the competition for him will be fierce. The best thing the Orioles' players can do at this point is to keep winning in order to put some pressure on the front office.
Miami Marlins
Playoff chances: 36% (2% division | 1% title)
Sim wins: 81.4 (15th) | Last watch: 73.7 (23rd)
Why they could go either way: At the time these words are written, the Marlins are baseball's hottest team, per the "team temperature" metric developed by Bill James. They achieved that status against one of the softest stretches of schedule you can imagine: back-to-back series against the Oakland A's and Kansas City Royals. This is still a team that has cellar-dweller offensive metrics, entered the season with a below-average forecast and has been handily outscored over the first two-fifths of the schedule. The bottom line, on the other hand, is what it is: Miami is well over .500 and as close to the first-place Braves as they are to third-place. My stance on teams like this is firm, which is that if this level of contention lasts into late July, however likely that might or might not be, it would be a disservice to the fans in the stands and the players in the clubhouse to adopt anything but an assertive deadline approach. In the Marlins' case, the objective would be to add offense, in any form, someone to hit behind the marvelous Luis Arraez during his pursuit of old-timey standards of batting average.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Playoff chances: 35% (23% division | 1% title)
Sim wins: 80.4 (17th) | Last watch: 81.6 (17th)
Why they could go either way: The Pirates are similar to the Marlins in many ways except that they play in a softer division. Other traits are the same: Subpar forecast, surprise winning record and a negative run differential, though in Pittsburgh's case, the deficit is small. It's really that preseason expectation that makes you skeptical of the Bucs, whose list of overachievers is long. However, the Pirates have a better-balanced roster than the Marlins and more quality veteran hitters. If the starting pitching can return to its early-season form, or gets better through acquisition or prospect graduation, who knows what can happen in a division like the NL Central? But the conclusion about the Pirates also mirrors that of the Marlins. Continued contention feels unlikely, but if it happens, the front office better be in add mode.
New York Mets
Playoff chances: 28% (1% division | 1% title)
Sim wins: 79.7 (18th) | Last watch: 83.1 (15th)
Why they could go either way: The payroll screams the Mets' approach to the season: all-in and more. Much more. But if the Mets continue to flounder with injuries and underperformance, can that approach carry over to the deadline? The Mets almost certainly would not start offloading talent. But if New York is, say, eight games under .500 in late July, could we reasonably expect an aggressive deadline strategy? Not if it entails dealing some of the Mets' top prospects, some of whom (Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez) have helped New York do as well as it has. It's going to be an interesting few weeks in Queens, especially now that Pete Alonso has wound up on the IL.
Philadelphia Phillies
Playoff chances: 27% (2% division | 1% title)
Sim wins: 79.5 (19th) | Last watch: 80.1 (20th)
Why they could go either way: Well, let's face it. If the Phillies remain in the "could go either way" class, Dave Dombrowski will be in hot pursuit of every available quality veteran that pops up in his trade conversations. It's what he does. As for whether that approach makes sense with this year's Phillies, that remains to be seen. The Phils have underachieved; that much is clear. But we thought the same thing about them at this point last season, a campaign that, in case you've forgotten, ended with Philadelphia in the World Series. In terms of record and games behind, the sub-.500 Phillies were in almost the exact same position at this time last season. But there is a key difference: The Phillies' run differential at this point in 2022 was as far into the positive as this year's differential is into the negative. Before we can ponder another busy Dombrowski deadline, the Phillies need to start playing a whole lot better.
St. Louis Cardinals
Playoff chances: 24% (15% division | 1% title)
Sim wins: 78.0 (21st) | Last watch: 74.5 (22nd)
Why they could go either way: The Cardinals have often been criticized for not being aggressive enough when it comes to making in-season acquisitions. They got some of that last year after dealing for Chris Stratton, Jordan Montgomery and Jose Quintana, then that trio ended up being one of the most valuable groups of deadline pickups around. This time however, the Redbirds have way more to worry about than deadline aggression. In a season of some high-profile disappointments, no team has been more of a letdown than the Cardinals. After dropping a shocking 14 games under .500 on May 6, St. Louis seemed to turn things around, almost all at once, and closed within six games of .500 a couple of times. Which, in the NL Central, is the verge of contention. But they've since gone back into the tank, even owning the NL's worst record at one point. What happens from here, we'll see. Their schedule between now and the deadline is one of MLB's softer slates, though in a timeframe that long, the differences from team to team are marginal. Maybe St. Louis regathers its burgeoning momentum from May. Or maybe the Redbirds emerge as a club in need of a serious shake-up.
Los Angeles Angels
Playoff chances: 15% (0% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 82.8 (12th) | Last watch: 84.0 (14th)
Why they could go either way: You'd think that even if it were only due to the law of averages, the Halos would eventually have a season when most of their questions were answered in the positive at the same time. There have been some great developments with this club but most of them have been deadened by equally bad news. Logan O'Hoppe looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate and future All-Star behind the plate. Then he went down with a season-ending shoulder injury. Mike Trout has been available but has not produced at his typically galactic level. Shohei Ohtani has been terrific, but Anthony Rendon has once again struggled. Zach Neto has emerged as a viable starting shortstop less than a year after being drafted, but Taylor Ward has dropped off dramatically. Really, you could do this all day. What happens from here? The range of possibility is as wide for the Angels as it is for anybody.
Chicago Cubs
Playoff chances: 15% (10% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 76.3 (23rd) | Last watch: 85.0 (13th)
Why they could go either way: The Cubs looked like they were going to bash their way into contention early in the season, but their pixie dust must have disappeared in a stiff Lake Michigan breeze because this team doesn't look a whole lot different than last year's. The run differential is better but some of that may be due to an early tendency to pile on runs during routs. The Cubs have scored the lowest percentage of their runs in high-leverage spots in baseball, but only one team has a higher rate in low-leverage. That's a fancy way of saying the Cubs' hitters have struggled when they've most needed to score, and flourished when it's mattered the least. This feels like a team that is more like its well under .500 record than not. Still, one hot streak gets the Cubs back into the mix in the Central and there are enough quality veterans around to win with, given the competition. On the other hand, if things keep going south, the Cubs have some veterans who might figure prominently in deadline chatter, quality performers like Cody Bellinger, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly and Marcus Stroman.
Cleveland Guardians
Playoff chances: 11% (10% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 76.5 (22nd) | Last watch: 80.2 (19th)
Why they could go either way: Look, I'll be honest here: I really wanted the Guardians' offense to flourish. I have no rooting interest in that, or in the city of Cleveland, or this franchise. But I wanted a lineup made up of players chosen for their speed, contact hitting and defensive acumen to coalesce into an exciting, consistent unit. Because if that happened, perhaps it might inspire some imitators. The Guardians were baseball's youngest team in 2022, which we mentioned over and over. And why not? When the youngest team wins its division, that's fun. It also establishes a baseline of expectation for further improvement. Alas, these things are rarely linear and they certainly haven't been for the Guardians. Only the Tigers have a worse park-adjusted scoring rate. The pitching has been great, which has resulted in one close game after another: 29 of the Guardians' first 61 games were decided by one run, by far the highest total in the majors, and another 12 were decided by two runs. And yet ... that's been enough to stay one short winning spree of the Twins for the top spot in the epically poor AL Central. So if this continues, the Guardians might have more to gain marginally from a splashy pickup than any other team.
Boston Red Sox
Playoff chances: 9% (0% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 80.7 (16th) | Last watch: 85.2 (12th)
Why they could go either way: The Red Sox have been, in most respects, a little better than average. In this year's AL, that and a couple of bucks will get you a candy bar. (I have adjusted that wry old analogy to account for inflation.) The rollercoaster ride was exemplified by the saga of Chris Sale. Back after a long, long injury absence, he struggles in the first month. Then he flourishes in the second month -- the old Sale is back! Then he winds up back on the IL with a sore shoulder and an uncertain outlook. Getting Sale back during the second half would be the best news the Red Sox could get. The second best would be an early and productive return by Trevor Story. Otherwise, if the BoSox keep doing what they're doing, they might be able to salvage a playoff berth by upgrading at one or two of the non-Rafael Devers infield spots. Those upgrades could be on offense or defense or, preferably, both. But this is a middling contender with some clear, identifiable roster holes.
Cincinnati Reds
Playoff chances: 7% (4% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 73.8 (24th) | Last watch: 68.1 (26th)
Why they could go either way: The Reds' roster during the early portion of the season is hard to judge because there were some placeholders taking up playing time who have gradually been usurped by some exciting prospect promotions. Through it all, the Reds have managed to hold their own. Suddenly, Cincinnati is in decent position as yet another team with an opportunity granted by being located in the middle of the country. With the graduations of in-house products like Brandon Williamson, Andrew Abbott, Matt McLain and -- especially and most excitingly -- Elly De La Cruz, they keep getting younger and more fun. As this has happened, the Reds keep playing better. This is a tantalizing team, especially as we look ahead to the eventual return of Joey Votto and Nick Lodolo. As for the deadline, more than any other club, the Reds can look to offload some spare veterans without worrying about short-term impact. Mostly that's because so many of the kids are playing well that their best shot is to keep letting them do their thing.
Seattle Mariners
Playoff chances: 6% (0% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 79.3 (20th) | Last watch: 81.0 (18th)
Why they could go either way: The playoff structure currently includes 12 clubs. The Mariners have a solid argument that they are one of baseball's 12 best teams. Yet look at those playoff odds. Seattle has underachieved. Not severely, but after last season we certainly expected more. Exemplifying this is young star Julio Rodriguez. J-Rod has been good but rather than cementing his status as baseball's newest superstar, he's shown his still-tender age, and that he has more to learn in terms of plate approach and consistency. The rotation has been gut-punched by injury, especially the season-ender suffered by Robbie Ray. All this aside, the low probability is in large part due to circumstance. Given the strength of all five teams in the AL East and the top two clubs (Rangers, Astros) in the Mariners' own division, they can be a winning club and still be squeezed out of the postseason bracket. You have to differentiate yourself in this year's AL, and the Mariners thus far have been unable to do that.
AGGRESSION TIER IV: Waiting for the light to change
This is a special tier for 2023. These teams haven't really demonstrated a level of play that suggests they are going to emerge as a playoff club. But because they all play in this season's lackluster Central divisions ... anything is possible.
Chicago White Sox
Playoff chances: 4% (4% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 73.4 (25th) | Last watch: 70.3 (24th)
Why they will probably subtract: The White Sox and Tigers are unlikely partners in this tier. The White Sox have fallen far short of expectation for two straight seasons now. But they have a roster built to win now. The Tigers, on the other hand, were supposed to be one of this year's worst teams and at times, they've looked like it. But they have won more than expected and stand neck-and-neck with the White Sox in the division, both within hailing distance of the lead. It's a "special" division. For Chicago, the time is now to change its deadline destiny. Its roster is as healthy as it's been all season. Either the White Sox go on a sustained run now, or the deadline could and probably should result in a significant retooling. If that were to happen, Chicago would have some of the more alluring trade candidates around.
Detroit Tigers
Playoff chances: 1% (1% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 68.5 (26th) | Last watch: 69.5 (25th)
Why they will probably subtract: The Tigers do not look like a playoff-quality team. Yet because they have far outperformed their run profile, largely due to the work of the bullpen and manager A.J. Hinch, they aren't close to being out of the AL Central race. Despite that, the simulations see the Tigers as having virtually no shot at the playoffs, almost entirely because of sour projection-based assessments of the roster. Much more so than the Marlins or Pirates above, Detroit seems like a team that will clarify its deadline status by kindly stepping out of the race. If they keep hanging in, then perhaps the picture changes in a few weeks. But given the probabilities and the ill-timed injuries to the Tigers' best position player (Riley Greene) and pitcher (Eduardo Rodriguez), how likely is that to happen?
AGGRESSION TIER V: Parked for now
The rebuilding projects of these teams have not resulted in surprise 2023 contention. Thus, the focus remains squarely on the future.
Washington Nationals
Playoff chances: 0% (0% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 66.7 (27th) | Last watch: 66.4 (27th)
Why they will subtract: The stories for the teams here are pretty straightforward, with little drama to come between now and the deadline. The Nationals have had a largely upbeat first half thanks to developing youngsters (MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz) and a surprising level of competitiveness. They still have a long way to go, and their top trade candidates, like Lane Thomas, Jeimer Candelario and perhaps Hunter Harvey, Carl Edwards Jr., et al, might impact the pennant chase of other clubs.
Colorado Rockies
Playoff chances: 0% (0% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 64.7 (28th) | Last watch: 63.6 (28th)
Why they will subtract: The Rockies are likely to subtract because it doesn't really make any sense for them to add. They have some quality trade candidates, too, like Brad Hand, Brent Suter and Randal Grichuk, who might bring enough of a return to add to Colorado's future core. But will the Rockies part with players who might be able to help them chase some low-leverage victories down the stretch?
Kansas City Royals
Playoff chances: 0% (0% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 57.3 (29th) | Last watch: 59.4 (29th)
Why they will subtract: Even if not all the members of the Royals' future core are playing particularly well, at least K.C. knows who it is and can exercise some patience. While it waits for Bobby Witt Jr., Brady Singer and others to develop and establish a degree of consistency, they have some veterans on hand that could bring back some future value. Aroldis Chapman may be the hottest name in the early trade rumblings, and the Royals might be able to exchange him for a viable prospect. Scott Barlow has really pitched well lately and moving him sooner than later makes sense, if the plan is to move him at all. Either way, the deadline approach seems clear.
AGGRESSION TIER VI: Tow zone
Because no one deserves to be slotted with this year's Oakland A's.
Oakland Athletics
Playoff chances: 0% (0% division | 0% title)
Sim wins: 44.4 (30th) | Last watch: 50.6 (30th)
Why they may not be able to subtract: The A's ought to trade any veteran they can, and they do have some trade candidates who should attract calls. Brent Rooker could merit some attention, depending on how you view his wildly uneven start to the season. Ramon Laureano seemingly has been a trade candidate since the days of Connie Mack. Trevor May has been pitching better of late, and veteran relievers are always in demand. And that's all we have to say about that. There is plenty more snark we could chuck in the general direction of RingCentral Coliseum, but we'll save it for another day.