The Seattle Mariners rolled into Texas last weekend needing to prove something. In a season in which they hoped to use a 2022 playoff appearance to wrest the American League West title away from the Houston Astros, the Mariners instead were 29-27 and 6.5 games behind the first-place team they would face the first weekend of June -- not the Astros, but the ... Texas Rangers?
It did not go as planned. The Mariners got swept and left Arlington shell-shocked and discombobulated (and in fourth place in the AL West). The Rangers, meanwhile, continue to crush teams with a relentless offensive attack and a starting rotation that has excelled even without Jacob deGrom, who announced on Tuesday that he will undergo elbow surgery and miss the rest of the season.
"We expect to win every single game we go out and play," said rookie third baseman Josh Jung after Sunday's win. It didn't even sound like a braggadocious statement -- not after watching Jon Gray outduel Luis Castillo in a 2-0 victory on Friday; a 16-6 win as Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and Nathaniel Lowe combined to go 10-for-17 with nine RBIs on Saturday; and the coup de gras on Sunday, when the Rangers won 12-3 as Nathan Eovaldi allowed one hit in six scoreless innings, Semien extended his hitting streak to 23 games and Jonah Heim homered and drove in five runs.
While the Tampa Bay Rays got off to a blazing 13-0 start and stole the early headlines as baseball's best team, the Rangers now have a reasonable stake to that claim (the Rays, at 45-19, still have a slight advantage over the Rangers at 40-21). The two teams can settle that argument this weekend when they meet for a three-game series at Tropicana Field, including the must-see game of the season so far in Saturday's marquee matchup of Cy Young contenders Eovaldi and Shane McClanahan.
The Rays, though they've surprised everyone with their level of success, have been a perennial playoff team and an expected contender. What's interesting about the Rangers -- much to the frustration of a club like the Mariners (and its fans) -- is they have seemingly skipped a step in their rebuild, going straight from "not good" to top competitor. So how, exactly, did Texas go from a sixth straight losing record to a World Series contender -- in one offseason?
1. Historic offensive numbers
The Rangers' series sweep over Seattle improved their record to 38-20, and their run differential after another win Monday was an impressive plus-153. How impressive? That was the best through 59 games since the 1939 Yankees were plus-168 -- and that's a team many consider the greatest of all time. The Rangers' win on Tuesday made them 40-20, the best 60-game start in franchise history.
Sunday's victory was also the 16th time the Rangers have scored at least 10 runs. This year, no other team had more than eight games with as many. Only the 1936 Yankees and 1999 Mariners scored 10 runs that many times in their first 60 games.
The Rangers were averaging 6.44 runs per game as of Monday, the highest number at that point of the season since the 2001 Colorado Rockies (6.5) and 1999 Cleveland Indians (6.7), two teams that did so in the heart of the steroids era with a higher leaguewide offense.
Timely hitting has also been a key to their offense in the early going. Entering Monday, the Rangers ranked 12th in batting average with the bases empty, but first with men on base and with runners in scoring position. Their average with RISP (.336) was the second-best mark by any team through 58 games over the past 50 seasons (.339 by the 2013 St. Louis Cardinals).
The odds suggest Texas will decline in this department: Only one team since the live-ball era began in 1920 has bettered the Rangers' current .337 mark (the 1930 Cardinals hit .342). Only 15 teams in the wild-card era (since 1995) have even hit .300 with RISP -- although the top team, the 2013 Cardinals, hit .330, so it's not impossible.
2. Depth beyond the big-name starters
The depth of the Texas lineup is this team's strength, particularly now that Seager has returned after missing 31 games with a hamstring injury. Look at where the Rangers rank in the majors at each lineup spot in OPS (through Monday):
1st: .919 (third in MLB)
2nd: .809 (13th)
3rd: 793 (13th)
4th: .799 (ninth)
5th: .833 (fifth)
6th: .845 (sixth)
7th: .778 (seventh)
8th: .786 (third)
9th: .641 (19th)
Seager and Semien, the two free agents the Rangers signed for a combined $500 million before the 2022 season, are the headliners, but this isn't just a store-bought lineup.
Jung was the team's first-round pick in 2019 out of Texas Tech and has bounced back from last year's shoulder surgery to make a strong push for the All-Star Game. Catcher Heim came over from the A's in a 2021 trade for Elvis Andrus and is likewise putting up All-Star numbers. The club nabbed Adolis Garcia from the Cardinals before the 2020 season (although it could have lost him when it removed him from the 40-man roster in 2021) -- and he went 4-for-4 with his 15th home run and 52nd RBI (one behind Yordan Alvarez for the major league lead) in a win against the Cardinals on Tuesday. Lowe was acquired from the Rays for three minor leaguers and has developed into a solid middle-of-the-order bat. Ezequiel Duran came over in the Joey Gallo trade with the Yankees in 2021. Center fielder Leody Taveras is another homegrown player, a former top prospect who is a plus defender and having his best season at the plate.
"Everybody I feel like is groovin' right now," Eovaldi said after Sunday's win.
While the Rangers might have spent plenty in free agency, the players pushing this roster from good to great are not necessarily the big-name stars acquired over the past couple offseasons.
3. Smart decision-making by front office executives
The recent moves and signings that have led to this year's powerhouse team were all made with longtime executive Jon Daniels heading the baseball operations department. But with the Rangers on their way to 94 losses last season -- their sixth consecutive losing season -- team owner Ray Davis fired Daniels in August after 16 seasons. "Bottom line is we're not good, and we haven't been good for six years," Davis said at the time. "To be competitive going forward, I felt that we needed to make a change."
It is worth noting, however, that the Rangers probably weren't as bad as their 2022 record indicated. They went 15-35 in one-run games, a historically bad mark. We know that one-run records aren't really predictable season to season; the Rangers were always likely to improve in that department in 2023. (They're actually just 5-7 in one-run games so far, but they're winning because they're blowing out opponents.)
When Daniels left, his general manager, former major league pitcher Chris Young assumed top duties. One thing Young knew he needed to do was improve the rotation. The Rangers were 25th in the majors in rotation ERA in 2022 and 28th in 2021. The farm system had failed to help in this department (even Dane Dunning had arrived via a trade with the White Sox for Lance Lynn).
The Rangers turned to Davis' checkbook: They signed deGrom to a five-year, $185 million contract; Eovaldi to a two-year, $34 million contract (with a third-year vesting option); Andrew Heaney to a two-year, $25 million deal; re-signed Martin Perez for a year when he accepted the team's qualifying offer; and traded for Jake Odorizzi (who is out for the year after shoulder surgery). Throw in Gray, who was signed as a free agent last season, and it is essentially a store-bought rotation.
Young will get a lot of credit for building this team -- deservedly -- but it also has Daniels' footprints all over it. Even during lean years, this Rangers team was looking to the future.
4. A rotation headlined by an unlikely star
Despite deGrom making just six starts, the Rangers' pitching has excelled, ranking second behind the Rays in the majors in rotation ERA. Check out the best year-over-year improvement in ERA among starting rotations from 2022 to 2023 (through Monday):
1. Rangers: +1.50
2. Nationals: +1.47
3. Twins: +0.74
4. Pirates: +0.46
5. Rays: +0.40
Of course, now they will have to do this without deGrom. The right-hander was in tears when he met with reporters on Tuesday, saying, "We've got a special group here, and to not be able to be out there and help them win, that stinks."
But in truth, they've been doing it without deGrom for all but a month of the season, since their ace went on the injured list for the first time on April 29. Instead, the Rangers have relied on Eovaldi (8-2, 2.24 ERA) and Gray (6-2, 2.32 ERA) and the high-powered offense. Eovaldi has led the pitching staff so far, ranking fifth in MLB in ERA and second in WHIP (0.93). He's been even better as of late with a 0.68 ERA in his past seven starts, the third-best mark in a seven-game span (all starts) in Rangers history.
Dunning has moved full-time into the rotation and he's 5-1 with a 2.42 ERA after Tuesday's win. Now the question will be whether they keep this up: Without deGrom and Odorizzi, the rotation options thin out -- and Eovaldi, Gray and Heaney all missed time in 2022 with injuries.
5. The ability and experience to go the distance
The Rangers are clearly good enough to win the AL West. Texas has won six straight series and continued to fend off a push from Houston, which has gone 19-7 since May 9 -- one of the best records in baseball over that span -- but has gained no ground in the division race.
Young will no doubt look to add pitching depth at the trade deadline, although given the expected dearth of starters available, he might look to add pieces to the bullpen. The Rangers were hoping Jack Leiter, the second overall pick in 2021, would be ready for the majors by now, but he's walking 5.4 batters per nine innings in Double-A. His Vanderbilt teammate Kumar Rocker went down a couple weeks ago with season-ending Tommy John surgery, further thinning the minor league options.
But those are decisions for down the road. For now, the Rangers will focus on the present.
Manager Bruce Bochy, back on the bench for the first time since managing the San Francisco Giants in 2019, knows a thing or two about winning teams. An important lesson to remember? It's crucial to not get ahead of yourself.
"Again, I can't emphasize enough, we're not getting too giddy here," he said following Sunday's win. "We have a lot of baseball left, but this is the type of baseball we have to continue playing. And I do believe that these guys can even grow together and peak more than what they already have."
Bring on the Rays in a June clash of titans.