LAS VEGAS -- True free agency in baseball begins today at 5 p.m. ET, when the five-day period during which teams have exclusive negotiating rights with their pending free agents expires.
There is no better time to answer the most pertinent matters of a hot stove season beginning anew. From the hottest names on the market to trade candidates to bigger-picture items, here are answers to 20 questions about the current landscape, culled from dozens of sources at the GM meetings.
Okay, first of all -- who is signing Aaron Judge?
The New York Yankees remain the favorite, not only because they wield the sport's greatest financial might and are the only team Judge has known in his decade-long professional career, but also because the rest of the free agent class doesn't align nearly as clearly with the organization's professed priorities.
Front-office officials surveyed at the GM meetings pegged a Judge deal somewhere in the neighborhood of eight years and $320 million -- perhaps a tick higher if the San Francisco Giants or Los Angeles Dodgers make a spirited run at Judge. Even then, the Yankees have plenty of room to meet Judge's demands and need outfield help in an outfield-poor free agent class along with the sort of power only Judge provides among this winter's top available hitters.
If the Yankees miss out...what could they do instead?
There are plenty of options. This is a strong free agent class. If general manager Brian Cashman prefers a big splash, Trea Turner and Carlos Correa fit the bill. (Cashman did on Tuesday call middle-infield prospect depth a strength of the Yankees, with Anthony Volpe, Oswald Peraza and Oswaldo Cabrera all capable of manning shortstop.) They could focus on a top-tier starting pitcher, such as Justin Verlander or Carlos Rodon. Or they could take a portfolio approach with Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga, outfielder Brandon Nimmo and a grab-bag of other mid-tier players.
The Yankees' projected payroll is currently around $190 million, according to Baseball Prospectus. That number should grow. Significantly.
What about Jacob deGrom?
Any thought or conjecture that deGrom will suffer from a limited market seems foolhardy. The best pitcher in the world will have plenty of suitors beyond the New York Mets, with whom he has spent a dozen years since being drafted. The Texas Rangers are the most obvious choice, with their desperate need for pitching and willingness to spend. The Dodgers make sense, even if they re-sign Clayton Kershaw and bring back Tyler Anderson on a qualifying offer.
How willing teams are to shell out a three- or perhaps four-year deal could determine where the 34-year-old lands -- but wherever that is, deGrom will make $40 million-plus a year.When he's healthy, there is no one better.
Speaking of the Mets -- what does the Edwin Díaz splash say about their offseason plans?
The Mets are in a tricky spot. On one hand, it makes sense to run back as much of their 101-win team as they can. On the other, their payroll is already projected at more than $210 million, and that's without deGrom, Nimmo and Chris Bassitt, all of whom are free agents and should make upward of $70 million a year combined.
Mets owner Steve Cohen certainly isn't afraid to spend, and it's just a matter of time before their payroll exceeds $300 million. The Mets, one source familiar with the team's plans said, "are going to be one of the biggest spenders this winter," and the five-year, $102 million deal to hold onto their prized closer was just the beginning of a spree they hope can move them beyond the wild-card round after a crushing loss to the San Diego Padres.
Who is more likely to sign somewhere new this winter: Justin Verlander or Clayton Kershaw?
While one can't discount Kershaw going to Texas, where he grew up and his good friend Chris Young is now running baseball operations, he has spent the entirety of his 16-year pro career in the Dodgers' organization. Kershaw was a free agent for the first time last season and re-signed with Los Angeles. He is beloved there. The Dodgers certainly could withstand him leaving, but after a season in which he posted a 2.28 ERA over 126 1/3 innings, a return engagement for the 34-year-old makes sense.
The soon-to-be-40-year-old Verlander, on the other hand, is coming off a likely Cy Young Award-winning season and has every right to ask for an annual salary that starts with a 4. The Astros certainly can afford it, particularly with a payroll that plummets following the 2024 season, when Alex Bregman and Jose Altuve -- who will make a combined $59.7 million each of the next two years -- reach free agency. There are other options, though. The Toronto Blue Jays almost signed Verlander last winter and would be wise to take another crack. The Yankees would look a whole lot better with Verlander joining former teammate Gerrit Cole atop their rotation. The Boston Red Sox have money and desperately need starting pitching. The Rangers make sense for Verlander, though questions about their ability to win now could dampen his interest. The size of his market may not be overwhelming, but it's bound to be strong.
Are the Dodgers likely to change their approach at all after another October exit?
Yes, but not necessarily how one would think. A side effect of having such a bountiful farm system is the need for spots to give top prospects an opportunity to earn full-time roles. Does that mean the Dodgers end up with a left side of the infield with Gavin Lux at shortstop and rookie Miguel Vargas at third base instead of Trea and Justin Turner? Or use Bobby Miller in their rotation instead of a high-priced free agent? Not necessarily, but when team president Stan Kasten told the Los Angeles Times that "we have kids who need time to play up here," he was signaling that this could be a transitional year for the Dodgers.
If they nontender or trade Cody Bellinger, their payroll will be in the $165 million range, giving them plenty of room to add to a team that won 111 games this year. That could come via free agency or trade. The bullpen needs help, the rotation could use another arm and the lineup has plenty of room for improvement. The big question: Are the Dodgers going to stay under the $233 million luxury-tax threshold and reset the penalties going forward, or will they continue to operate as the financial behemoth they are?
Are there lessons from the Astros' (or Phillies') run that other teams could follow this offseason?
Spend a lot of money.
The Philadelphia Phillies' $240 million-plus payroll ranked fourth in MLB. The Houston Astros, at around $210 million, were ninth. Here are the payroll rankings of this year's 12 postseason teams: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 15th, 21st, 23rd, 27th. The four teams in the league championship series were 3rd, 4th, 6th and 9th.
It's a frustrating reality with which fans of lower revenue teams must grapple. Yes, teams like the Tampa Bay Rays (23rd) or Cleveland Guardians (27th) can succeed. But it's simply a fact that payroll and success correlate rather strongly, and as much as one might try to take lessons from the teams in the World Series -- from the Astros, it's "develop well," and from the Phillies, it's "get stars" -- nothing novel revealed itself this October.
Which teams are most likely to go really big this winter?
Certainly this list could change depending on market dynamics and the whims of ownership, but the most active teams this winter, according to sources, are expected to be:
New York Mets
Los Angeles Dodgers
New York Yankees
San Francisco Giants
Texas Rangers
Philadelphia Phillies
Among others that could spend, should the right opportunities present themselves: the Toronto Blue Jays, Houston Astros, Milwaukee Brewers, Atlanta Braves and Detroit Tigers.
Which positions are the deepest in free agency?
With Turner, Correa, Xander Bogaerts and Dansby Swanson available, the shortstop class is elite. There is also no lack of solid starting rotation pieces: deGrom, Rodon, Senga, Bassitt, Kershaw, Anderson, Taijuan Walker, Ross Stripling, Martin Perez, Nathan Eovaldi, Jameson Taillon and Jose Quintana are perhaps the best dozen, along with Zach Eflin, Andrew Heaney, Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, Johnny Cueto, Mike Clevinger, Sean Manaea and Chris Archer.
How does this class compare to other recent classes?
Fairly well -- particularly at the top end. Sources believe nine players will receive nine-figure contracts this winter: Judge, Turner, Correa, Bogaerts, Swanson, Rodon, deGrom, Nimmo and Diaz. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel projects total spending this winter to exceed $3 billion.
The top-end guys are going to get paid. The middle class is the wild card. If the desire for starting pitching drives the market for players like Walker, Taillon, Stripling and others into Steven Matz/Jon Gray territory -- $44 million to $56 million on four-year deals, which they received last winter -- then this could verge on record territory for spending in an offseason.
Which players are most likely to get tagged with qualifying offers?
The qualifying offer is a one-year, $19.65 million contract that teams offer players with two criteria: they spent the entire 2022 season with the same team, and they have not been offered it before. Among those who will receive and certainly reject it: Judge, Turner, Bogaerts, Swanson, Rodon, deGrom, Nimmo, Bassitt and Cubs catcher Willson Contreras
Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo will receive and potentially reject it. Walker should get it and would fare well by turning it down. Anderson, the left-hander coming off a breakout season with the Dodgers, could accept it. Taillon and Eovaldi are other options to take the deal, as well -- rejecting it could deeply hinder their market because teams that sign free agents tagged with a qualifying offer lose at least one draft pick.
Who are some names fans might not think of who could get big deals this winter?
For those surprised by Nimmo being on the nine-figure list, don't be. He's got a career .385 on-base percentage and plays center field. His best comparable may be Shin-Soo Choo, whose offensive numbers were slightly superior but was more of a corner outfielder/designated hitter. He received a six-year, $130 million deal nearly a decade ago. Senga, who turns 30 in January, is a hard-throwing righter with an impeccable track record in Japan, where he played for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. In 144 innings this season, he struck out 156 and allowed just seven home runs with a 1.94 ERA. He could land in the $80 million range.
Who are the best available players you haven't mentioned?
Even at 36, Jose Abreu is as professional a hitter as there is. Andrew Benintendi is another high average guy who comes with an excellent glove in left field to boot but doesn't pack quite the power of Abreu. Brandon Drury's breakout year and versatility should get him a variety of options, from a big one-year deal to a two- or even three-year offer. Masataka Yoshida, a 29-year-old outfielder, won't intimidate anyone at 5-foot-8, but his bat is potent: he has posted a .326 career average for the Orix Buffaloes and, this season, a .336/.449/.559 line with 21 home runs and an 82-to-42 walk-to-strikeout ratio.
Jurickson Profar's versatility and bat-to-ball ability led to an excellent season in San Diego. Joc Pederson can crush. Josh Bell's first half was All-Star worthy. Michael Conforto didn't sign last season and then got hurt, but teams are hoping to grab him at a discount.
On the pitching side, the relief pool has some gems: World Series star Rafael Montero, the monster right-hander Robert Suarez, longtime star closer Kenley Jansen and a few left-handers in Matt Moore, Andrew Chafin and Taylor Rogers.
Who are the big names in the trade market?
The trade and free agent markets have become deeply intertwined, with the latter being a salve for the sticker shock of the former and the former being an excuse not to engage in the latter. It's symbiotic stalemating.
For example, if teams desiring a frontline starting pitcher balk at the prices on deGrom, Verlander and Rodon? Certainly they'll inquire about Cleveland's Shane Bieber or Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes, both of whom are two years from free agency. The return, though, would be astronomical, and sources said neither the Guardians nor the Brewers will be discussing either with an intent to deal this winter.
Boston finds itself tens of millions of dollars apart from star third baseman Rafael Devers, who's a free agent after the 2023 season. Might it consider doing with Devers what it did with Mookie Betts when he was one year from free agency? Probably not, but teams won't hesitate to ask.
Teams are still "playing footsie," one GM said, so it's not yet clear who's an obvious candidate to move. Among those believed in the industry to be available and probable to move:
Miami Marlins right-hander Pablo Lopez
Oakland Athletics catcher Sean Murphy
A Blue Jays catcher: either All-Star Alejandro Kirk, Danny Jansen or top prospect Gabriel Moreno
Others who could be dealt include:
Mariners outfielder Jesse Winker
Cubs outfielder Ian Happ
Pirates center fielder Bryan Reynolds
Cardinals outfielder Tyler O'Neill
Yankees second baseman Gleyber Torres
We didn't mention Shohei Ohtani. Is there a chance he could be somewhere other than Anaheim on Opening Day?
Absolutely. Yes, Los Angeles Angels GM Perry Minasian said the team wouldn't trade the two-way star this winter, but Washington Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said the same thing about Juan Soto before the trade deadline, and two months later Soto was a San Diego Padre.
There is little downside for Minasian to at least entertain trade offers. For one, it would allow him to gauge the market for the 28-year-old Ohtani, who is due to hit free agency after the 2023 season. Even if the Angels don't move Ohtani now, the knowledge they gain from such discussions could help facilitate a deal closer to the trade deadline, if they're so motivated.
None of this is easy, of course. Between his pending free agency and the Angels potentially being sold, the complications surrounding Ohtani's future in Anaheim, whether it's a record contract extension or trade, are manifold. Minasian saying the Angels aren't moving Ohtani theoretically brings some semblance of calm to a situation that could spiral chaotically, but other GMs are not convinced, with one saying: "It was the same thing with Rizz. He wasn't going to trade him until he did."
Which teams could add to the list of available trade options by tearing it down?
The Angels are the obvious choice, with arguably the two best players in baseball in Ohtani and Mike Trout, but deals for both would be rife with complications -- including Trout's ability to block any trade with 10-and-5 rights (10 years in the big leagues, the last five with the same team). That said, if the Angels went that route, they could drastically accelerate a rebuild.
Of the teams with a number of desirable players, the Brewers are really the only other one that makes sense -- and two sources said they actually plan to add around Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Willy Adames and others this winter, via free agency, trades or both.
While there is no indication the Chicago White Sox have any desire to start from scratch, the sheer amount of individual talent on the team -- from Tim Anderson to Dylan Cease to Luis Robert to Lucas Giolito to Andrew Vaughn to Liam Hendriks to Eloy Jimenez to Lance Lynn to Yoan Moncada -- makes them awfully appetizing for teams that might want to do a big league-for-big league swap.
Will we see any other manager or GM movement this offseason?
Well, there is the curious case of James Click, the GM of the World Series champion Astros, who is in Las Vegas doing his duties without a contract. Over the last two days, executives around the game were varying levels of dumbstruck by the fact that Click was offered a one-year deal by Astros owner Jim Crane.
One GM said he was "appalled." Another said "it's bull----." A third: "How do you get multiple years if all you get for winning the World Series is one?"
Barring a change in Crane's thinking -- he said Wednesday that he and Click were "in discussions" on a contract and it would be resolved when Click returned from the GM meetings -- Click will face a choice: accept a deal beneath what someone of his stature warrants or turn it down and hit free agency with no MLB president or GM jobs open. Certainly a team could create a position for him, but the timing is suboptimal, and joining a team in a lesser role for a year before transitioning back could be the solution in that case.
And if that happens, what about the Astros? David Stearns, the former Houston assistant GM whose work as president of baseball operations in Milwaukee has made him a coveted executive, remains under contract with the Brewers. The internal options in Houston don't have experience running a team. For all of Crane's reverence for Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell, the former Houston star taking over would cause chaos inside multiple levels of the Astros' baseball operations department. And seeing how Crane has treated Click, how many executives would take a job on a one-year deal knowing that even winning a World Series isn't enough to warrant more?
What are the most important days fans should know about this offseason?
A comprehensive list of dates worth knowing:
Today, 4 p.m.: Deadline to present a qualifying offer.
Today, 5 p.m.: The open of unrestricted free agency.
Nov. 15, 4 p.m.: Deadline to accept or reject a qualifying offer.
Nov. 18: Date to offer -- or tender -- a player a contract. Non-tendered players become free agents.
Dec. 4-7: Winter meetings in San Diego.
Dec. 6: The first-ever MLB draft lottery.
Dec. 7: Rule 5 draft.
Jan. 13, 2023: The exchange date for arbitration. If a team and player don't agree upon a salary, each submits a number that it will argue in front of a three-person arbitration panel. If the sides don't settle on a number in between before an arbitration hearing, the panel will award one side the number for which it argued.
Jan. 30 to Feb. 17: Arbitration hearings.
Feb. 24: First spring training games.
How will the new collective-bargaining agreement impact what teams do this winter?
The significant jump in the luxury-tax threshold from $210 million in 2021 to $230 million in 2022 helped with spending at the top end of the market. Six teams exceeded the threshold this year: the Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies, Red Sox and Padres. Multiple teams in that group could slip back under the threshold this winter.
One thing to keep an eye on, particularly among lower revenue teams: Does anyone blame a lack of spending by its major league team on the expectation of significantly increased salaries after the unionization of the minor leagues? While doing so would not hold much water -- even if the average minor league salary jumps $20,000 a year, it would amount to less than $4 million total per team, which for most organizations is a rounding error -- teams have offered less compelling reasons in the past for not spending.
Last year, the lockout split the offseason in two halves. Are we more likely to see early movement or deals signed close to the start of spring training this winter?
Baseball has never been like the NFL or NBA, when the beginning of free agency turns into a frenzy of signings. A number of big money deals -- notably Corey Seager and Marcus Semien to the Rangers for a combined $500 million -- got done before Dec. 1 last year, but that was due to the desire for getting their deals done before the inevitable lockout.
Now? Urgency comes with no reward, so slowly they'll go. There will be a few early deals, because there always are, but with a sport that has conditioned itself to operate 365 days a year, why would its behavior change when teams now know the longer they wait, the better deals they can get? That's not always the case, but the leverage teams get by delaying their decisions or holding out can be very real and, more often than not, works in their favor.
Players can try to turn that leverage on teams by making up artificial deadlines by which they plan to sign, but it's not a tried-and-true -- or necessarily effective -- maneuver. So they wait. And wait. And wait. And inevitably, even if there's a grand rush at the winter meetings, one of the nine-figure players is bound to find himself still unemployed by New Year's Day, awaiting the sort of contract that may never come.