Many teams have been looking toward next season even before this one was wrapped up. Well, the Astros won their second World Series in six years Saturday night, and now every team has its eyes on the future.
But, before we move on to 2023, let's take one more look back at this season to see how accurate we were in our preseason predictions.
In our 2022 season preview, I made a bold prediction for all 30 teams. My predictions are what I call bold yet realistic. I mean ... did I predict anybody to hit 62 home runs? No, that would be silly. Still, now is the time of reckoning. Let's see how those predictions fared and look into our crystal ball to see what it says about each team's 2023 season.
Cleveland Guardians
The prediction: Steven Kwan hits .304 to become the first qualified Cleveland rookie to hit .300 since Dale Mitchell in 1947.
OK, Kwan finished at .298, falling one hit short of batting .300. Still, do you know what else I wrote about the Guardians in our best-case scenario section? Cleveland signs Jose Ramirez to a long-term extension, Shane Bieber returns to Cy Young form, Triston McKenzie becomes a dominant starter, Emmanuel Clase is the best closer in the game, and the offense scrapes together enough runs for the Guardians to steal the AL Central title with 90 wins. That's like completing Wordle on the second try.
Grade: A+++++++
Spin forward: Kwan is an anachronism in today's game with all his soft contact, which led to an expected batting average of just .268 according to Statcast metrics. With his speed to beat out infield hits (18 of them in 2022) and ability to hit 'em in the gaps, I think Kwan is legitimate and will hit around .300 once again.
Los Angeles Angels
The prediction: Shohei Ohtani becomes the first back-to-back MVP since Miguel Cabrera in 2013 as he hits .274 with 42 home runs and goes 13-4 with a 2.99 ERA.
No, he won't win the MVP award thanks to Aaron Judge's historic season, so I can't give this an A+, but Ohtani was every bit as spectacular as predicted, maybe more so. He hit .273 with 34 home runs and went 15-9 with a 2.33 ERA.
Grade: A
Spin forward: He'll enter 2023 as the MVP favorite -- and presumably that will still be with the Angels. Because he's eligible for free agency after the season and doesn't seem too happy with the Angels' losing way, the trade rumors will slowly build, starting in the offseason and rising in decibels if the Angels aren't in the playoff picture at the trade deadline.
Oakland Athletics
The prediction: The A's will lose 100 games for the first time since 1979.
Bingo. The A's went 60-102. Of course, maybe 100 losses wasn't that bold of a prediction because Brad Doolittle's projection had them finishing 69-94. Still, the A's usually have a way of overachieving, even in rebuilding seasons. Not in 2022.
Grade: A
Spin forward: It will be another rebuilding year, and it's possible the Rangers and Angels will be better while the Astros and Mariners remain playoff teams, putting another 100-loss season on the table for the A's.
New York Mets
The prediction: Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom both miss time because of injuries, and Chris Bassitt leads the team in wins and innings.
This did happen, as Bassitt won 15 games and pitched 181⅔ innings. In fact, deGrom went down as soon as that prediction was made, not making his debut until August and starting 11 games. Scherzer would make 23 starts. The Mets won 101 games anyway.
Grade: A
Spin forward: Bassitt and deGrom will both likely exercise opt-out clauses and enter free agency. Will next year's bold prediction be that David Peterson leads the Mets in innings?
Miami Marlins
The prediction: Sandy Alcantara is the only pitcher to reach 200 innings and finishes in the top five of the Cy Young voting.
Solid prediction, but not quite an A. Alcantara did lead the majors in innings pitched with 228⅔ -- the most since David Price in 2016 -- and he'll not only finish in the top five of Cy Young voting, he should win it. But seven other pitchers topped 200 innings (although the highest of that group was Aaron Nola's 205), and picking Alcantara to win the Cy Young would have been the bolder choice.
Grade: B+
Spin forward: In retrospect, two things allowed the top pitchers to throw a few more innings in 2022: (1) Pitchers were probably held back a little bit in 2021 coming off the shortened COVID-19 season; (2) The drop in offense allowed longer outings. But Alcantara was in a class all his own.
Kansas City Royals
The prediction: Bobby Witt Jr. goes 25-25 (home runs and steals) to become the third rookie since 1969 to reach those totals -- and finishes second in Rookie of the Year voting.
Witt flashed both of those abilities, finishing with 20 home runs and 30 steals. He got off to a slow start, not homering until his 21st game, and then homered just once in September. Still, he has a chance to become the first 30-30 player in Royals history.
Grade: B
Spin forward: The interesting part about Witt's season is that his physical abilities didn't translate to defense. His defensive metrics were poor, especially at shortstop -- he started 96 games at short and 50 at third base. The Royals will have to determine if Witt is still the long-term answer at shortstop or if they should move him to third base for prospect Maikel Garcia.
San Francisco Giants
Prediction: Logan Webb wins the Cy Young Award.
He won't, but the sinkerball specialist was very good, going 15-9 with a 2.90 ERA and just 11 home runs allowed in 192⅓ innings.
Grade: B
Spin forward: Webb's strikeout rate dropped from 26.5% to 20.7%, but he gets so many ground balls (second-highest ground ball rate among starters behind Framber Valdez) that batters don't do a lot of damage against him. He should be a top starter once again.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The prediction: The Dodgers win 110 games ... and the World Series.
THEY WON 111 GAMES ... and did not win the World Series.
Grade: B- (or an F, if you're a Dodgers fan)
Spin forward: It's going to be difficult -- impossible? -- to win 110 again. Except the Dodgers won 106 in 2021 and 106 in 2019. Clayton Kershaw, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney are all free agents, but the Dodgers will figure it out. Maybe this is the season they win 95 games ... and then win the World Series.
San Diego Padres
The prediction: Ha-Seong Kim plays well at shortstop and hits 22 home runs -- and Fernando Tatis Jr. returns as an outfielder.
This one is sort of incomplete as Tatis never did return in 2022. However, Kim did play very well at shortstop -- he's a Gold Glove finalist -- and hit 11 home runs with 43 extra-base hits, improving significantly at the plate from his rookie season in 2021 (73 OPS+ to 107).
Grade: B-
Spin forward: I believe the second part of that prediction will still come true in the end. Kim's defensive metrics were far superior to Tatis' at shortstop, so it makes sense to keep him there and move Tatis to the outfield on a permanent basis. That might be a blow to Tatis' ego, but it is probably better for his long-term health -- and Kim was too good defensively this season to turn into a utility player.
Atlanta Braves
The prediction: Matt Olson leads the National League with 45 home runs and 124 RBIs and finishes second in the MVP voting.
Olson hit 34 home runs and was tied for second behind teammate Austin Riley in extra-base hits among NL players, so it was a nice season -- just not an MVP-caliber one. His BABIP actually remained about the same as 2021 (.274 compared to .269), but his strikeout rate climbed from 16.8% to 24.3%, causing his batting average to drop to .240.
Grade: C+
Spin forward: Olson's strikeout rates have been all over the board the past three seasons, leading to a vast inconsistency in his batting average: .195 to .271 to .240. His 2022 average was the middle ground, and that's probably what to expect again in 2023.
Houston Astros
The prediction: Kyle Tucker hits .300 with 35 home runs and a 1.000 OPS and finishes third in the MVP voting.
He hit 30 and was third in the American League with 107 RBIs, but his batting average fell from .294 to .257 and his OPS was closer to .800 than 1.000. He did make his first All-Star team and might finish in the top 10 of the MVP voting. Not to make excuses, but the decline in offense across the league -- especially in the number of home runs -- affected a lot of these bold predictions.
Grade: C+
Spin forward: Tucker is still one of the best all-around players in the game, ranking 11th among position players in WAR over 2021-22, and I still think he can put together an MVP-caliber season. At least in a league that doesn't include Ohtani.
Baltimore Orioles
The prediction: Cedric Mullins goes 30-30 again to become the first player with consecutive 30-30 seasons since Ryan Braun in 2012.
Nope. Mullins stole 34 bases but hit just 16 home runs. Of course, there was a leaguewide significant drop in home runs, making it less likely that Mullins would repeat his out-of-nowhere power season. Of note: In the best-case scenario section, I pegged the Orioles at 70 wins. They won 83. That would have been a bold prediction.
Grade: C
Spin forward: Mullins' WAR dropped from 5.7 to 3.8, but it was still a solid season. He's a core player and an integral part of the Orioles' rising fortunes.
Boston Red Sox
The prediction: Rafael Devers hits 50 doubles and 40 home runs, something only nine players have done.
Another offensive prediction done in by the drop in offense as Devers hit 42 doubles and 27 home runs. Missing 21 games didn't help. Worth pointing out: Through his first 79 games, Devers had 27 doubles and 19 home runs. Double that and you get 54 doubles and 38 home runs. However, then he injured a hamstring, missed a few games and eventually went on the injured list -- and just wasn't the same force when he returned.
Grade: C
Spin forward: I might predict this one again in 2023. Bring back the juiced the ball!
New York Yankees
The prediction: Gerrit Cole wins the AL pitching Triple Crown, leading in wins (19), ERA (2.76) and strikeouts (261).
One out of three might be a good batting average, but that doesn't earn a top grade here. Cole was once again very good, although his 3.50 ERA and 111 ERA+ (adjusted ERA) were his lowest since his final year with the Pirates in 2017. Despite the Yankees leading the AL in runs, he went just 13-8, with some poor run support factoring in. Cole allowed no runs or one run in 13 starts, but he went just 6-2 in those games. He did lead the majors with 257 strikeouts.
Grade: C
Spin forward: Cole's biggest problem was allowing an AL-leading 33 home runs. That's not a Yankee Stadium thing, as 19 came on the road. His four-seamer has slowly been losing value: 36 runs better than average in 2019 (via Statcast), 17 in 2021 and just eight in 2022. The velocity is still as good as ever, so it appears to be more of a location issue. It might be time to start mixing in a few more offspeed pitches. Still, he projects as one of the majors' best starters next season.
Philadelphia Phillies
The prediction: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos each hit 40 home runs, making them the fourth team with three 40-homer players.
Schwarber hit 46, Harper hit 18 (and was on pace for 38 until he missed two months with a broken thumb) and Castellanos hit ... 13. Certainly, the Castellanos pick was way too aggressive, considering the 34 he hit with the Reds in 2021 was the only time he has reached 30 in his career -- and 23 of those had come in homer-friendly Cincinnati.
Grade: C
Spin forward: With a full season from Harper (pending possible offseason elbow surgery) and a bounce-back season from Castellanos, let's see how much better this offense can be in the regular season -- and then perhaps in another deep playoff run.
Seattle Mariners
The prediction: Jarred Kelenic hits 31 home runs at age 22 and Julio Rodriguez hits 25 at age 21, making the Mariners the first team since the 1966 Red Sox (Tony Conigliaro and George Scott) with two players that young hitting 25 home runs or more.
Rodriguez hit 28 in his stellar rookie season and Kelenic hit 25, so pretty close! Oh, wait ... that includes the 18 that Kelenic hit at Triple-A.
Grade: C
Spin forward: Julio for MVP in 2023? Too bold? Hey, Harper won his first MVP in 2015 at age 22.
Chicago White Sox
The prediction: Dylan Cease, Lucas Giolito and Michael Kopech each strike out 200 batters.
Cease got there for a second straight season with 227, while Giolito fell from 201 to 177 and Kopech managed just 105 in 119⅓ innings -- barely topping the 103 he had fanned in just 69⅓ innings in 2021 while pitching primarily in relief. The White Sox handled Kopech with kid gloves as he averaged just under five innings per start, so he didn't pitch as many innings as projected. Giolito's numbers fell across the board.
Grade: C-
Spin forward: The big drop in Kopech's strikeout rate -- from 36.1% to 21.3% -- was a little surprising, even accounting for moving into a starting role. His fastball velocity averaged 97.3 mph in 2021 and 94.9 mph in 2022. It's still an effective pitch as batters hit just .189 against it, but he also walked too many batters. There is potential for a premium starter here, but he'll have to throw more strikes and go deeper into games.
Minnesota Twins
The prediction: Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton both have 7.5-WAR seasons.
Given Buxton's injury history, that was definitely a bold prediction and ... yep, he got hurt again, playing just 92 games and earning 4.0 WAR. Correa had a solid season but also missed some time, finishing with 5.4 WAR. Let's see, though -- if we prorate both players to 155 games, we get Correa at 6.2 WAR and Buxton at 6.7. That would have been a solid B+ prediction.
Grade: C-
Spin forward: Correa opted out of his deal and is headed into free agency, so it's unclear where he'll be come next season. Buxton is still an incredibly valuable player when he's on the field. Over the past two seasons, he has hit 47 home runs in 153 games.
Toronto Blue Jays
The prediction: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wins the Triple Crown -- but finishes second to Ohtani in the MVP balloting.
Well, the AL almost did have a Triple Crown winner, but it wasn't Guerrero, who finished tied for seventh in home runs (32), tied for fifth in RBIs (97) and 22nd in batting average (.274). A fine year, but a far cry from his monster 2021 season. In 2021, he created about 58 runs more than the average hitter; in 2022, just 25.
Grade: D+
Spin forward: A few things happened here. Guerrero's average launch angle had improved in 2021 but regressed to a career low in 2022 (9.4 degrees to 4.3). So, not enough balls in the air. His walk rate also declined, from the 87th percentile of all hitters to 49th, as pitchers started challenging him more. His swing-and-miss rate also increased. He's obviously young enough to make some adjustments and improve, but maybe 2021 will prove to be his career season.
Tampa Bay Rays
The prediction: Wander Franco hits .325 and finishes second in the AL batting race.
A .325 average would have been the highest for a 21-year-old in a full season since Albert Pujols in 2001 (Juan Soto hit .351 in 47 games in 2020). Franco was hitting .331 through May 9 and then went into a 2-for-39 stretch that dragged his average down to .261. Injuries might have played a role as he had been bothered by quad and hamstring issues since late April. He later missed time because of a wrist injury and finished at .277 in 83 games.
Grade: D+
Spin forward: Injuries clearly affected his season. With his contact rate, a little maturity and good health, Franco will hit .300 -- maybe for the next decade.
Colorado Rockies
The prediction: Ryan McMahon out-WARs Nolan Arenado, leads all infielders in defensive runs saved and snaps Arenado's streak of nine straight Gold Gloves.
Hey, that's really three predictions in one and at least McMahon was a Gold Glove finalist at third base in the NL (Arenado won again). However, he most definitely did not out-WAR Arenado (7.9 to 3.0 in Arenado's favor) and while McMahon's defensive metrics remained strong (plus-9 DRS), they weren't as off-the-charts dazzling like 2021. He's a nice player ... but he's not Nolan Arenado.
Grade: D
Spin forward: I don't even want to mention my best-case scenario for the Rockies, which was something about Kris Bryant lighting up Coors Field.
Texas Rangers
The prediction: Jon Gray wins a career-high 15 games, strikes out 200 batters, finishes with an ERA under 3.25 and makes the All-Star team.
Substitute the words "Martin Perez" for "Jon Gray" and that would have been a stellar prediction.
Grade: D
Spin forward: Gray was OK, going 7-7 with a 3.90 ERA and making 24 starts. I had hoped that leaving Colorado would help him to new heights, but that wasn't the case, and it's probably asking too much to expect a big season at this point in his career.
Pittsburgh Pirates
The prediction: Diego Castillo leads the team with 23 home runs and receives some down-ballot support for Rookie of the Year.
Castillo hit 11 home runs in 262 plate appearances, so if he had played every day, you're looking at ... about 23 home runs (Bryan Reynolds led the team with 27). But he hit just .206 with a .251 OBP, which is why he didn't play every day. The bigger point in this prediction was that Castillo would have a better rookie season than the more hyped Oneil Cruz, which was not the case.
Grade: D
Spin forward: Cruz was worth 2.3 WAR in a little more than half a season, hitting 17 home runs. He certainly flashed his ridiculous tools -- especially the raw power and throwing arm -- and he does have star potential if he can rein in the strikeouts. As for Castillo, he's probably a utility player moving forward.
Milwaukee Brewers
The prediction: Freddy Peralta qualifies for the ERA title and holds batters to a .162 average (breaking Pedro Martinez's .167 mark as lowest ever for a qualified pitcher in a full season).
You know ... baseball players get hurt a lot. Peralta managed just 78 innings, although he was tough to hit, holding batters to a .190 average.
Grade: D-
Spin forward: When Peralta returned in August, he held batters to a .153 average the final two months. He made 27 starts in 2021 and if he does that again, maybe Pedro's single-season ... stop, stop it. Peralta is not going to hold batters to a sub-.167 average over 162 innings. Except he did hold them to a .165 average over 144 innings in 2021.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The prediction: Pavin Smith hits .300 with 22 home runs and makes the All-Star team.
The Diamondbacks did have a couple breakout performances from outfielders, but those came from Daulton Varsho (27 home runs, 109 OPS+, 4.9 WAR) and Jake McCarthy (.283/.342/.427, 23 stolen bases). Smith, meanwhile, hit .220 with nine home runs and missed most of the second half because of a broken wrist (suffered in Triple-A after he had been sent down).
Grade: F
Spin forward: Varsho, McCarthy, Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas have all passed Smith on the depth chart. Smith could get some DH at-bats in 2023, or perhaps he turns into a trade piece for some pitching help.
Chicago Cubs
The prediction: Nick Madrigal hits .336 -- with zero home runs -- making him the first qualified batter to hit .300 with no home runs since Luis Castillo in 1999.
Well, I got the zero home runs right. But that is not enough to give this anything other than a failing grade as Madrigal hit .249 and played just 59 games because of three different stints on the injured list.
Grade: F
Spin forward: Madrigal's ability to remain on the field has been an ongoing issue going back to his college days at Oregon State -- he has played just 113 games the past two seasons. He did hit .317 with the White Sox over 83 games in 2020 and '21, so a .300 season isn't off the books, but he has to figure out how to stay on the field.
St. Louis Cardinals
The prediction: The Cardinals finish under .500 for the first time since 2007.
Oops. They won the division with 93 wins. And Albert Pujols, of course, went on a tear the final two months and finished the season hitting .270/.345/.550 with 24 home runs. Forecasting that line, dear friends, would have been the A+, super-duper bold prediction.
Grade: F
Spin forward: Never bet against the Cardinals. Don't do it. The streak of winning seasons is even more remarkable because St. Louis isn't a franchise that runs payrolls on par with the Dodgers, Yankees or Red Sox.
Washington Nationals
The prediction: Soto hits .352/.527/.644 and wins unanimous MVP honors.
Ouch. OK, that batting line looks absurd in retrospect as Soto hit .242/.401/.452, but let's point out that line is what he hit over his final 78 games in 2021. Thus, the prediction. Soto did draw a ton of walks again, leading the majors with 135, and he hit 27 home runs, just two fewer than he hit in 2021, but he failed to hit for average. Oh, and we definitely did not predict that trade to the Padres. That would have earned an A grade, no matter Soto's batting average.
Grade: F
Spin forward: So what happened? It's hard to say. Most of his swing rates are identical to 2021, so it's not necessarily that he was too patient, as some have suggested. He hit more fly balls, but they weren't leaving the park. There was a little bad luck caked into the results as he had an expected batting average of .266 -- but that's still well below his .332 mark of 2020 and .305 of 2021. Maybe a little bit of humble pie will help him make some adjustments in 2023.
Detroit Tigers
The prediction: Tarik Skubal wins 16 games and strikes out 210 batters, and the Tigers win a wild card.
Yeah, well, hey ... Skubal did get off to a blazing start with a 2.15 ERA through his first 10 starts. The less I say at this point about the Tigers, the better.
Grade: F
Spin forward: Skubal ended the season on the injured list after undergoing flexor tendon surgery. He hopes to return at some point in 2023. Casey Mize underwent Tommy John surgery and will probably miss the entire season. Spencer Torkelson had a rough rookie year. I will not be picking the Tigers to win a wild card in 2023.
Cincinnati Reds
The prediction: The Reds make the playoffs as Joey Votto hits 40 home runs and Tyler Mahle wins 17 games.
The Reds won their first game of the season -- and Mahle was the winner! So that prediction was looking spot on. Until the Reds lost 22 of their next 24 games, Votto fell 29 home runs short of 40 and Mahle finished the season with the Twins.
Grade: F-
Spin forward: What was I thinking? [Editor's note: We've deleted the final 3,000 words of this piece explaining what went wrong with the Reds' season.]