It was almost 24 hours later than expected, but on Tuesday afternoon, as Aaron Judge traded forearm bashes and smiles with teammates after a home run that put the New York Yankees up 4-0, relief had invaded the faces of teammates in the Yankees' dugout. They have seemingly lived at the precipice for weeks now, briefly flirting with the worst collapse in the division era, sliding one game away from elimination in the American League Division Series against the Guardians in Cleveland. With the help of Monday's rainout, the Yankees have survived -- and they have advanced.
But like in a video game, the next level -- the AL Championship Series, against a Houston Astros team that has long been a nemesis -- presents a higher degree of difficulty.
Here are the matchups we're watching in the championship series round, with the Yankees taking on the Astros and the double-shocking matchup of the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres:
The rested and relaxed Astros vs. weary opponents
During the regular season, the Astros led the AL in ERA by nearly half a run. Their relievers posted the highest rate of strikeouts per nine innings in the big leagues. This postseason, Yordan Alvarez has apparently become some sort of baseball reincarnation of Babe Ruth, Kirk Gibson and David Ortiz. Houston already is a tough out, and the challenge is complicated by how the early playoff schedule has played out.
When the first pitch of the ALCS is thrown on Wednesday, the Astros will have played three games over the previous 14 days, and Dusty Baker's crew will have had a great opportunity to rest nagging injuries. Even after everyone pitched in that ridiculously long Game 3 at the Seattle Mariners, all of the Houston relievers will have had at least three days off. In the other dugout, their opponents will have had to play in a decisive Game 5 the night before, taken a long, late flight to Houston and been given no real chance for the best late-inning arms to freshen.
The Phillies' bullpen vs. Cinderella success
In May 2019, the Washington Nationals had the worst bullpen in the major leagues. Five months later, the 2019 season ended with midseason acquisition Daniel Hudson getting the last outs of their World Series championship. The Phillies' bullpen has followed a similar trajectory so far, condensed just in this postseason. Manager Rob Thomson's relief corps -- a group weakened even further by the first-round calf injury that David Robertson suffered celebrating a Bryce Harper homer -- ranked 23rd of 30 teams in ERA. And yet so far, this Philadelphia group has been effective. Seranthony Dominguez hasn't allowed a run in 3⅔ innings. Jose Alvarado has been solid, allowing a couple of hits in five innings. Zach Eflin has pitched in with important outs, after shifting to a bullpen role.
Will it last? Will the Phillies' bullpen turn into a pumpkin? We'll see.
Yordan Alvarez vs. Wandy Peralta
Robbie Ray can testify to Alvarez's excellence against left-handed pitchers, something borne out over the regular season, long before Alvarez's epic walk-off against Ray in the ALDS. Alvarez batted .321 vs. lefties and .299 vs. righties. But it's very likely that Yankees manager Aaron Boone will deploy his best left-handed relievers against Alvarez when it matters most, because Alvarez's power production is not quite as dynamic against lefties as it is against right-handers. Incredibly, Alvarez has never faced Peralta in either a regular-season or postseason game -- so this battle will be one to watch.
A big moment vs. a lack of hustle
Every October, there is an instance when a hitter doesn't run hard out of the box and misses a chance for an extra base or a pitcher fails to cover first or back up a base. There already have been moments when a lack of hustle has been costly; the Yankees had two already, with Josh Donaldson assuming he had hit a home run and getting thrown out after rounding first base as well as a ball falling inexplicably in front of Aaron Hicks.
Those plays have the potential for being pivotal.
Yu Darvish vs. his pitch count
Darvish had one of the best seasons of his career in 2022, throwing 194⅔ innings -- his most since 2013 -- and posting a 3.10 ERA. The Padres decided to leave him alone and let Darvish dictate his own path in pitch selection and in pace.
But Darvish's starts can still be a slogging grind, with the right-hander working into deep counts and, in the end, often leaving a lot of outs for the bullpen. In his first start of this postseason, against the New York Mets, Darvish compiled 99 pitches in five innings; he was better in his start against the Los Angeles Dodgers, throwing 101 pitches over seven innings, and the Phillies, tossing 95 in seven. The Phillies' lineup is loaded with hitters who have a lot of history against Darvish. Nick Castellanos, Rhys Hoskins, J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura all have least 13 at-bats versus the righty. Then there's Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber, who both showed in Game 1 exactly what they're capable of.
Darvish often outthinks opposing hitters, sprinkling in a mid-90s fastball with cutters and sliders and 70 mph curveballs. But he will need to find some quick outs, as well, to stay in games against a tough Philly lineup.
Alex Bregman vs. RISP opportunities
The best way to describe the quandary that Yordan Alvarez presents for opposing managers this October might be the disgusted grimace of Mariners manager Scott Servais as he ordered an intentional walk against the slugger in Game 2 -- really, it looked like Servais had bitten into a sandwich of spoiled meat. Managers are generally averse to issuing walks in this era, but the threat that Alvarez presents is real enough to make his at-bats an outlier. And when Alvarez is walked, that means Bregman -- the guy who bats behind Alvarez -- gets to hit with runners on base. A lot.
It's a redemption arc for Bregman, who played through an injury and really struggled last year. So far this October, he is 5-for-15, with a double and a homer. In the at-bat after Servais' reluctant intentional walk, Bregman smashed a run-scoring hit to right field.
Josh Hader vs. the demands of October
It's been well-documented that Hader's performance improved once the Padres reduced his responsibilities and worked to make sure he is properly rested. And through San Diego's first two rounds of the postseason, manager Bob Melvin has been able to keep his workload relatively light -- four outings, with only one instance in which Hader threw on consecutive days, and for never more than four outs. And Hader has looked great, as he did throughout September. He hasn't surrendered an earned run since Sept. 5. Whether that keeps up as the road gets tougher will be the big question for Melvin.
Juan Soto vs. Brad Hand and Jose Alvarado
Late in the regular season, Soto altered his approach in batting practice and began focusing on hitting the ball to the opposite field; since then, he seems to have been slowly recovering his mojo at the plate. Soto went 4-for-12 against the Mets and had a big hit against the Dodgers in Game 4. Rob Thomson will inevitably summon his two experienced lefties against Soto, particularly Alvarado; Soto is 2-for-11 with four walks against Alvarado. Soto has a small sample size against Hand and some success, going 1-for-3 with two walks against Hand.
The Yankees vs. their Astros demons
The Yankees have blamed some of their ugly results against the Astros on sign stealing, but that was five years ago. And the fact is that New York has gotten its collective butt kicked over and over and over by Houston -- from Jose Altuve's ALCS walk-off in 2019 to the strong regular-season series in Yankee Stadium this year. Over the past seven campaigns, the Astros have eliminated the Yankees in the postseason three times.
The Astros have been the Yankees' bogeyman for a while now, and to change that, Aaron Boone's team will have to try to figure out how to win in Houston; how to beat Justin Verlander; how to slow down Altuve; and how to prevent Yordan Alvarez from peppering the outfield seats with home runs.
Adrian Morejon vs. a big spot
In San Diego's one loss in the wild-card series, Bob Melvin summoned Morejon in a crucial spot, and the left-hander struggled to throw strikes with anything other than a fastball, effectively ending any shot of a Padres comeback. There could be some more temptation for Melvin to call on the lefty against the Phillies, given the presence of left-handed hitters Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Whether Morejon can rise to the challenge will be crucial for the Pads.
Manny Machado vs. the strike zone
The Padres' superstar third baseman is playing with a lot of confidence these days, and in the first two rounds, opposing pitchers and catchers honored that. They were constantly working Machado out of the strike zone, instead choosing to go after the hitter who followed him -- first Josh Bell, then Brandon Drury. In the regular season, 46.1% of the pitches Machado saw were thrown in the strike zone; in the postseason, that percentage has dropped to 41.3.
Sometimes Machado took walks; sometimes he did damage on the few pitches he did get to hit, with two doubles and two homers. But other times, he expanded the strike zone. He has 11 strikeouts in 27 at-bats in the first two rounds -- and the more he swings at pitches out of the zone, the more opposing pitchers will throw out of the zone. So his plate discipline could make a huge difference in his performance against the Phillies.