One week into the 2022 playoffs, we've seen plenty of exciting games and even a couple historic ones -- and we've learned that the Seattle Mariners, who waited 21 years to return to the playoffs, would waste no time at all in recording two of the more dramatic games in postseason history.
On Saturday, the Mariners rallied from an 8-1 deficit to beat the Toronto Blue Jays 10-9 and sweep their wild-card series. It tied for the second biggest comeback in playoff history. The rally shoe became a thing, and security cameras captured employees at a Toyota dealership in Seattle dancing in jubilation.
Then, in the first game of the American League Division Series against the Houston Astros on Tuesday, Yordan Alvarez hit a two-out, three-run, walk-off home run to give the Astros an 8-7 victory. It was just the fourth come-from-behind walk-off home run in postseason history and the first that came while trailing by multiple runs, making it the most impactful hit in playoff history in terms of winning a single game -- surpassing Kirk Gibson's home run off Dennis Eckersley in the 1988 World Series. Shoes were undoubtedly thrown in frustration, and the only dancing came in Houston.
Welcome to October, Mariners fans.
Alvarez's home run off Robbie Ray is the biggest moment of the postseason so far -- but it also ties neatly into one trend I've noticed through the first week's worth of games. Sure, we're still in the middle of the division series showdowns, but let's take stock of some of the early playoff keys and trends from the last seven days.
1. Managers are doing things differently than they did in the regular season.
First off, this isn't necessarily a negative.
In 2018, as the Boston Red Sox won the World Series, Alex Cora used all five of his starting pitchers in relief at some point. In 2019, Dave Martinez used Stephen Strasburg, Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin for a combined seven relief appearances as the Washington Nationals won the World Series. Last season, Eddie Rosario hit leadoff in nine of the Atlanta Braves' 16 postseason games -- after doing it just once in the regular season. Rosario hit .383 in the playoffs with an OPS over 1.000 as the Braves won the World Series.
The playoffs are a different beast. You can't manage the same way you do in the regular season with so much urgency at stake in each game -- but you also don't necessarily want to get too far away from what you did all season. Which leads us to Scott Servais' decision to use Ray to pitch to Alvarez.
Put it this way: In my playoff-watching lifetime, there have been three times when I was absolutely convinced a relief pitcher was going to blow a game:
Mitch Williams in Game 6 of the 1993 World Series. I remember watching this game with my dad, a casual baseball observer, and him asking, "Why are they bringing this guy in?" Rickey Henderson drew the most predictable walk in the history of the game, and three batters later, Joe Carter won the World Series.
Clayton Kershaw in Game 5 of the 2019 NLDS. I have a text to prove this one. Kershaw didn't lose the game, but he did give up back-to-back, game-tying home runs to Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto.
Robbie Ray in Game 1 of the 2022 ALDS on Tuesday.
Again, this is not in hindsight. I'm on a text chain with some fellow Mariners fans, and we all knew what was going to happen. Ray is a starting pitcher, so he gives up home runs. He has been giving up a lot of home runs down the stretch, and the Blue Jays had just knocked him around in that crazy game on Saturday. He had never entered a game like this -- let alone to face a hitter like Alvarez. Yes, Ray is tough on lefties, but platoon splits don't matter for Alvarez, who hit .321 versus lefties in 2022 and owns the best left-on-left OPS in the majors since his debut in 2019.
When Ray came in, I said to my wife, "He's going to hit a three-run homer." As Alvarez swung, I didn't even need to watch the ball land; I knew he had hit it 9,000 feet.
Here's another example. Bradley Zimmer played 100 games for the Blue Jays, starting just 23 of them (and hitting .124). They had used him all season as a defensive replacement in center field when leading late in games, including 19 times the final month. In fact, the Blue Jays had put him on waivers in August, only to reclaim him a week later when the Phillies let him go. Down the stretch, when they were battling to make the playoffs, the Blue Jays thought their best chance of winning games was to put Zimmer in center field.
When they blew that 8-1 lead, manager John Schneider didn't bring in Zimmer -- because Zimmer wasn't even on the playoff roster. OK, September rosters are expanded to 28 players, making it easier to carry a defensive replacement. Except Toronto's wild-card roster featured 13 pitchers. You do not need 13 pitchers for a three-game series. It's poor roster management. So when J.P. Crawford hit that bases-clearing blooper to center, George Springer was in center field instead of Zimmer. Maybe Zimmer makes the catch.
Servais didn't lose the game for the Mariners. Ray served up the cookie, Paul Sewald allowed two rookies before that to reach when he had two strikes on them and Andres Munoz -- who had been untouchable of late -- served up a two-run homer in the eighth to Alex Bregman.
But the moral of the story, for managers plotting in the postseason: Thinking outside the box can pay big dividends. But when it backfires, it sure looks bad. With that in mind, let's move on to the next item.
2. The Dodgers have bullpen questions ... again.
The Los Angeles Dodgers -- winners of 111 games in the regular season, the most in the National League since the 1906 Cubs -- had a 2.87 bullpen ERA, second best in the majors behind the Astros' 2.80. And yet, here we are in October, once again, with questions about how manager Dave Roberts will work his relievers. One year Kenley Jansen is the closer, and the next year, the club has lost faith in him. One year it's Kershaw in a clutch moment, the next it's starter Julio Urias closing out the World Series. Last year, it was Scherzer closing out the division series against the Giants, creating a ripple effect that hurt the club in the NLCS against the Braves.
With Jansen moving to Atlanta, Craig Kimbrel was the Dodgers' primary closer with 22 saves. However, even though he posted a 1.93 ERA over his final 19 appearances, he had 10 walks in 18 2/3 innings and allowed two home runs -- so Los Angeles left him off the playoff roster. In a 5-3 victory over the San Diego Padres in Game 1, the bullpen was Evan Phillips in the sixth, Alex Vesia for five outs, Brusdar Graterol for one and then 36-year-old veteran Chris Martin to close it out. That's a good group!
Phillips was the team's best reliever all season with a 1.14 ERA and .155 batting average allowed. Vesia, who crushes lefties, fanned 79 batters in 54 1/3 innings this year. Martin came over from the Cubs at the trade deadline and, in 24 2/3 innings with the Dodgers, had a sterling 34-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. You can win riding that foursome.
Then in Game 2, trailing by one run in the eighth inning -- a high-leverage situation -- Roberts used Blake Treinen, who had pitched just five innings all season, with the last on Sept. 5. He served up a home run to Jake Cronenworth and walked two other hitters. Can he be trusted moving forward?
In Game 3, with Tony Gonsolin starting, the Dodgers may need a lot of bullpen innings, so we may find out on Friday. Gonsolin, a 2022 All-Star, had a great season with a 2.14 ERA, but he has pitched just two innings since August because of a forearm strain. Roberts will likely piggyback him with Dustin May (who allowed 15 runs in 19 innings in September) or Andrew Heaney, but expect a parade of relievers if Gonsolin can't go deep into the game.
As successful as the Dodgers organization has been, it's remarkable that every postseason they head into October with some uncertainty about the bullpen. Maybe Martin will end up being the ninth-inning guy. The pen has been great all season for the most. All Roberts has to do now is ...
3. Find the hot hand.
Speaking of bullpens, it increasingly feels like the key to the postseason is finding your hot relievers and then riding their success as much as possible. Sounds simple -- but you have to find out which pitchers are hot before it's too late. Former manager Bruce Bochy was the master of this when the San Francisco Giants won three titles in 2010, 2012 and 2014. Atlanta's Brian Snitker did this last season with A.J. Minter. Minter had made just five appearances of more than one inning all season -- and had even been sent down to Triple-A for a spell -- and then made four such appearances in the postseason, including three of at least two innings.
It feels like the Philadelphia Phillies are hoping Zach Eflin gets the hot hand. A starter all of his career, manager Rob Thomson moved Eflin to relief in September when he returned from an injury. He picked up his first career save in the final series of the season, and now, he's suddenly the closer. The only problem: He allowed one run in his first outing and three in his third, although the Phillies held on to win both games. Let's see if he can lock down future ninth innings or if Thomson changes strategy -- though, with David Robertson sidelined for the series, it may be harder to switch to somebody else.
New York Yankees manager Aaron Boone has to figure out who his hot relievers will be as the Yankees' high-leverage relievers shifted throughout the season based on injuries and other factors. In their 4-1 win over the Cleveland Guardians in Game 1 of the ALDS, it was Jonathan Loaisiga, Wandy Peralta and Clay Holmes in relief of Gerrit Cole. Holmes was as dominant as any reliever in baseball in the first half, but he scuffled with a 4.84 ERA in the second half. Of note: Peralta got four outs in Game 1, including the first of the ninth, before Boone turned to Holmes for the final two. It looks like Boone is going to be careful in spotting Holmes against left-handed hitters.
Then there's Jansen -- the closer Roberts never completely trusted the past few years with the Dodgers. He was hardly lights-out with the Braves this season, with a 3.38 ERA and eight home runs allowed, but other than one two-homer game against Seattle, he was good in September with a 2.35 ERA. His first outing against the Phillies was a clean 1-2-3 inning, although it did come with a comfortable 3-0 lead.
4. It's impossible to overstate the importance of an ace.
Speaking of Cole ... I marked him as the most important player of this postseason. Maybe that's unfair, because Nestor Cortes and Luis Severino are certainly capable of stepping up with big performances in the Yankees' rotation, but it just feels like if the Yankees are to end their 12-season World Series drought, they will need a big postseason from their ace.
At his best, Cole remains a dominant starter. His 32.4% strikeout rate in the regular season ranked third among qualified starters, behind only Carlos Rodon and Shohei Ohtani. However, he also led the AL with 33 home runs allowed, including 10 in 36 innings in September.
His first outing against Cleveland was pretty good: one run over 6 1/3 innings with eight strikeouts against the best contact-hitting team in the league. He did serve up another home run, making it nine consecutive starts he has allowed at least one. And remember that the Guardians are hardly the big test in this department: They were next-to-last in the majors in home runs during the regular season.
Cole did escape a significant jam in the third inning. Steven Kwan had homered earlier in the frame to give Cleveland a 1-0 lead and the Guardians loaded the bases with one out, but Cole got Oscar Gonzalez to ground into a force play at home and then struck out Andres Gimenez. With the days off in this series, Cole will next come back on regular rest in Game 4 of the ALDS ... or Game 1 of the ALCS.
5. Power ball is the key.
Here's why those home runs hit or allowed are so important to winning in October: Since 2016, the team that out-homers its opponents has gone 164-30 in the postseason. You win in the playoffs by hitting home runs. How has that formula fared in 2022? The team with more home runs is 8-4 (in four other game, the teams hit the same number).
That being said, the Padres proved in their 5-3 win over the Dodgers to even their series that you can win without hitting more home runs, as the Dodgers out-homered them three to two. The Dodgers, however, went 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position and left 10 runners on base. In the right moments, base hits can still win games.
Indeed, if it's home runs that decide most games, maybe it's the outliers that determine series winners. Since 2016, 22% of all postseason games feature the same number of home runs -- and that's where play like the Padres' can become absolutely crucial.
6. One star performance can carry a team.
Let's go back to that first item, but pause on Alvarez' heroics. He looked locked in for Game 1 after smashing that 116.7 mph home run. He also lined a laser off the right-field wall in the eighth inning that clocked in at 113.7 mph and doubled in two runs earlier in the game. Then he followed that up with another go-ahead home run -- a two-run shot to give the Astros a 3-2 lead -- in Game 2. It certainly wouldn't be a surprise if he goes off the entire postseason. He hit .315/.449/.574 last postseason with eight extra-base hits -- although he struggled in the World Series and went just 2-for-20, a key reason the Astros lost to the Braves.
In recent years, we've seen various players have big October runs: Rosario and Freddie Freeman for the Braves last season; Randy Arozarena for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2020 when he hit .377 with a ridiculous 10 home runs in 20 games; Anthony Rendon for the Nationals in 2019 (.328/.413/.590, 15 RBIs in 17 games); and Steve Pearce for the Red Sox in 2018 (.289/.426/.658, 4 home runs, 11 RBIs in 13 games).
Who are some candidates to carry a team in this postseason, besides Alvarez?
Manny Machado, Padres: He has two home runs and two doubles in his first two games.
Freeman, Dodgers: He homered and drilled a double off a 99-mph Josh Hader fastball on Wednesday -- not to mention, he did this last year.
Bryce Harper, Phillies: He hit just .227 with three home runs in 35 games after returning in August from his hand injury, but he has a homer, double and two walks in four games so far.
Jose Altuve, Astros: He has been a terrific postseason performer in his career, hitting .286/.361/.547 with 23 home runs in 79 games entering this postseason.
Trea Turner, Dodgers: He has been a lousy postseason hitter historically, but he homered in his first two games this year.
Aaron Judge, Yankees: I heard he had a big season? He went 0-for-3 with a walk and three strikeouts in the series opener after obviously slowing down in the home run department at the end of the season. Things won't get any easier against Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and that Cleveland bullpen the rest of the series.
Of course, all those players are stars. The postseason is often about the non-stars who come up clutch -- like the Padres' Trent Grisham against the New York Mets.
Luckily, we have a lot more October baseball to find out who those guys might be.