There is no secret sauce for October. If there were, the most optimized teams would recognize that with a 12-team MLB playoff, what might work in the postseason is probably enough to get through the regular season and then gear their roster toward setting up a playoff run.
Thus, we're left trying to reverse-engineer what may work in the postseason by ranking teams in each of the potentially indicative categories, revisiting this at the end of the month to see where the most successful teams ranked high. And perhaps even then there will be no clear correlation -- no obvious categories that align with prosperity. The greatest key to October, many in baseball like to say, is luck, and quantifying that is impossible.
That leaves us with a longer-play option of looking for trends over multiple years, knowing the game shifts with rapidity, and that what might work now may not necessarily be the same in the pitch-clock era ... or when hitting catches up to pitching ... or some other epoch destined to bear out. The difficulty of the game is trying to foretell that, to see where it's going and shape a roster to extract advantages -- but that's not going to stop us from trying.
Here are eight categories that are likely to have an impact on the rest of this postseason, with each of the eight teams remaining in the playoffs ranked and accompanied by comments for teams that stand out, good or bad.
The lineup
Home run power
This is rather self-explanatory. Who hits tanks?
1. Braves: Eight players with at least 15 home runs. Austin Riley with 38 and Matt Olson with 34. Dansby Swanson, Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II, Ronald Acuña Jr. ... No wonder opposing pitching staffs tremble at the thought of facing Atlanta.
2. Yankees: New York finished with more home runs than any team in baseball with 254 -- led by a certain slugger's 62 long balls. And if the Yankees win a championship this season, no doubt home runs will fuel the engine. They simply don't have quite the power depth of Atlanta.
3. Dodgers
4. Astros: They're top-heavy, but it's the sort of top you're happy to embrace.
5. Mariners
6. Phillies: Philadelphia ranking fifth shows how much pop the teams still in the field have, because the Phillies boast the NL home run champion in Kyle Schwarber along with Bryce Harper and six others who hit at least 10 homers.
7. Padres
8. Guardians: This is not just among playoff teams. Cleveland had the second-fewest homers in the big leagues this season. The Guardians' 127 are exactly half of the Yankees' output.
Contact aptitude
Raw strikeout rate is easy to measure -- and certainly telling. But adjusted strikeout rate -- slugging percentage divided by strikeout rate -- tells the story of the teams that best balance strikeouts and power. It's no surprise that the top eight teams in the metric made the postseason this year.
1. Guardians: The contact gods of baseball. An 18.2% K rate, two hyper-elite low-K guys (Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez), and no regular at even 24%. The best of the best.
2. Astros: They have the second-lowest K rate at 19.5% and the best adjusted K rate. They don't miss, and they hit the ball hard. It's a scary combination.
3. Dodgers
4. Padres: For all of the big swing-and-miss hitters in their lineup -- and there are a few -- San Diego also has more contact-oriented guys like Juan Soto (14.9% K rate), Jurickson Profar (15.7%), Ha-Seong Kim (17.2%) and Jake Cronenworth (19.2%).
5. Yankees
6. Phillies: Yes, Kyle Schwarber is a Phillie, which skews things a touch. But Bryce Harper has evolved into a more contact-oriented version of himself and Jean Segura's bat-to-ball skills are top-notch.
7. Mariners
8. Braves: Their raw strikeout rate of 24.6% is the worst among playoff teams. But their adjusted rate is better than San Diego's and Seattle's at least.
Top-of-the-order stars
The players at the top of the order receive the most plate appearances and, thus, will be relied upon to produce.
1. Dodgers: Trea Turner, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith. It doesn't get better than that.
2. Braves
3. Yankees: This spot is on the strength of Aaron Judge, though, depending on the day, Aaron Boone can also turn to Anthony Rizzo (32 home runs), Giancarlo Stanton (31 home runs) and others (perhaps the returning Matt Carpenter?).
4. Phillies
5. Astros: They'd be higher if Baker would start treating the No. 2 hole as the damage spot it needs to be. Imagine a top four of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker, with Jeremy Peña moved down from No. 2.
6. Padres
7. Mariners: Julio Rodriguez leads off, Ty France rakes, Eugenio Suarez is second in the big leagues in the past five years in home runs, and Cal Raleigh at cleanup will play, with Carlos Santana or Mitch Haniger in the mix, too.
8. Guardians: Depth is more of a problem in Cleveland than the top of the order, where Terry Francona can slot Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez while their second-most productive hitter, Andres Gimenez, is usually lower in the lineup.
Baserunning
A combination of stolen-base acumen, raw speed and general baserunning excellence, such as going from first to third or second to home on a single.
1. Guardians: Not only do they steal bases at a well-above-average clip (81.5% success rate), five regulars swiped between 18 and 21 bases. A majority of the lineup can really run.
2. Dodgers: The most efficient base-stealing team in the field (84.5%) boasts athleticism from Mookie Betts and Cody Bellinger in the outfield to Trea Turner in the infield. And Freddie Freeman is an excellent baserunner.
3. Phillies
4. Braves: Between Acuña and Michael Harris, Atlanta has two of the most athletic players left among playoff teams, and Dansby Swanson is a sneaky base-stealing threat, with a career-high 18 stolen bases.
5. Yankees
6. Astros
7. Padres: They don't swipe a ton of bags, but among Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham, they have three very bright baserunners.
8. Mariners
Pitching and defense
Rotation Big 3
Every remaining team features well-above-average starting pitching. The wild-card round reminded us that starting pitching can play in October if managers let it. How much they do, as we get deeper into the postseason, will be telling. The foundation for these rankings is WAR, though we took liberty in shifting a few teams.
1. Astros: On the strength of Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez alone, they're at the top. If Lance McCullers isn't the answer in the third spot, Cristian Javier -- he of the 2.54 ERA -- can be.
2. Braves: Max Fried, 20-game winner Kyle Wright and Spencer Strider is awfully nasty. And that's to say nothing of a very good replacement if Strider's oblique gives him trouble: Charlie Morton.
3. Phillies
4. Dodgers
5. Mariners: One can make an argument they belong higher on the list. When Robbie Ray is his Cy Young self, they do. The rotation hinges on him.
6. Padres: San Diego advanced on the strength of its starting pitching, and if suddenly Yu Darvish is a playoff force and Joe Musgrove is spinning the ball like he did against the Mets, it's the sort of rotation that can carry the Padres far.
7. Yankees
8. Guardians: With Shane Bieber, Tristan McKenzie and Cal Quantrill, this is not a last-place rotation in the same way, say, the Guardians are last in home run hitting. The gap between the Astros' rotation and Cleveland's isn't particularly significant.
High-strikeout, low-walk bullpen.
The concept isn't very difficult. If, in the late innings, a team prevents runners from getting on base, it nullifies its opponents' ability to score. Strikeouts keep hitters off base, and preventing walks does the same.
1. Astros: Their K/9 rates are ridiculous: Bryan Abreu (13.13), Ryan Presley (12.10), Hector Neris (10.88), Ryne Stanek (10.21), Phil Maton (10.01). The excellent Rafael Montero is at 9.61. Even more impressive: Among them, only Maton has a home run rate above 0.74 per nine, when 0.99 is the league average.
2. Braves: It's not just Kenley Jansen (who looked great in September) and Raisel Iglesias (who allowed one earned run in 26⅓ innings after joining the Braves at the trade deadline). Atlanta has big-armed left-handers (A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee) and high-K, low-BB righties (Collin McHugh, Jesse Chavez), too.
3. Guardians
4. Mariners
5. Dodgers: L.A.'s bullpen is deep. Very deep. But the big questions remain: Who is going to pitch the ninth inning? And if it's a committee, will Dave Roberts deploy his best arms properly?
6. Phillies
7. Padres: They may not be deep, but as the Mets saw, a Robert Suarez-Josh Hader back end means attempting to catch up to a lot of 100-mph fastballs at the end of games.
8. Yankees: While they don't strike out a lot of guys, they've got a cache of high-rate ground ball guys in Clay Holmes (75.8%), Jonathan Loaisiga (59.6%), Wandy Peralta (53.9%) and Lou Trivino (51.7%). With a much-improved defense, it helps, even if it doesn't entirely mitigate the K issues.
Up-the-middle defense
Using a combination of Outs Above Average, Defensive Runs Saved and input from scouts, a look at the teams with the best fielding from catcher, shortstop, second base and center field.
1. Braves: One of only three teams above-average at all four positions -- but they're especially good at shortstop (Dansby Swanson), catcher (Travis d'Arnaud) and center field (Michael Harris II).
2. Astros: They have a litany of plus center fielders, a pair of above-average catchers, a well-above-average shortstop in Jeremy Peña and a second baseman in Jose Altuve who, while defensive metrics are split on his 2022 season, is regarded well by scouts.
3. Guardians
4. Yankees: Much of this is on the strength of their catchers -- Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka are elite -- and assuming Harrison Bader plays center field.
5. Mariners
6. Padres: Trent Grisham was among the best center fielders in baseball, and Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth form a good keystone combination. But baserunners could well pick on Austin Nola, who threw out just 8 of 64 baserunners.
7. Dodgers: They're actually solid everywhere, with Cody Bellinger in center, Trea Turner at short, Gavin Lux at second and Will Smith behind the plate, but not spectacular anywhere.
8. Phillies
In the dugout
Manager
This is a difficult category to quantify: In-game strategy goes a long way. Championship pedigree certainly plays a role. The difference among managers this time of year isn't significant. Button-pushing and team-building are inexact sciences.
1. Guardians: Terry Francona has won two World Series and in the past 10 years guided Cleveland to nine above-.500 finishes. The only missing year: 2021, when the Guardians went 80-82. Steady in the clubhouse and in-game, he's the paragon.
2. Braves
3. Dodgers: Yes, there's always the chicken-or-egg element to Dave Roberts' stewardship of the Dodgers. Are they better because of him or could anyone manage that sort of talent well? The question is moot. Fact is, Roberts does.
4. Padres
5. Mariners: Canny bullpen management is one thing. But for Servais to take a clubhouse that long reviled management in Seattle and help nurture a playoff team was a feat to behold.
6. Yankees
7. Astros: Never has in-game strategizing been Dusty Baker's forte. His interpersonal abilities are beyond question, and he wins during the regular season, but a World Series title still eludes him.
8. Phillies
Now, clearly not all categories warrant equal weight. Perhaps this postseason will give us a better sense of which do. But just for fun, and to give a sense of which teams may be seen as the favorites this postseason, we added up all of the rankings. With lower being better, here is how they fared:
Braves 22
Dodgers 28
Astros 29
Guardians 34
Yankees 39
Phillies 46
Mariners 46
Padres 47
The wild card round included three upsets -- and perhaps it's no surprise that those winners are the three lowest-ranking teams. Conventional wisdom -- or at least on-paper accounting -- suggests their years may end soon. But then this is baseball. This is October. There is no secret sauce.