Bryce Harper's biggest strength as a hitter has always been his discipline at the plate, waiting for the right pitch to unleash his controlled fury. Fall behind him in the count and watch out -- he has hit .446 in his career when putting a 1-0 pitch into play and .435 this season. That's the situation Yu Darvish faced in the fourth inning of Game 1 of the National League Championship Series with a 1-0 count and the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres still scoreless.
Darvish wanted to throw a fastball down and away but got it up too high, and Harper lofted a towering fly ball to left field that landed in the second row of spectators. With a 42-degree launch angle, it was Harper's highest-hit home run of 2022, and while hardly his most impressive, it was his most important as it gave Philadelphia a Game 1 lead it would never relinquish.
Round 1 to the Phillies and Round 1 in the Harper-Manny Machado showdown to Harper -- but a day later it was the San Diego star's turn to shine, as his 400-plus-foot homer to center field provided the exclamation point in a series-tying 8-5 Game 2 victory for the Padres.
While the two $300 million superstars have shared the field in the NLCS the past couple of days, the baseball lives of Harper and Machado have always been closely intertwined.
As teenagers, they played together in the USA Baseball program and were separated by just two picks in the 2010 MLB draft -- Harper going first overall to the Washington Nationals and Machado third to the Baltimore Orioles.
They immediately became two of the best prospects in the sport. Harper reached the majors early in the 2012 season, Machado a few months later -- and they spent the first 6½ years of their careers racking up All-Star appearances at ballparks just 38 miles apart.
In the winter of 2018-19 the pair hit free agency and became forever linked as arguably the most prized free agents since Alex Rodriguez left the Seattle Mariners for the Texas Rangers after the 2000 season. Both had just finished their age-25 seasons and ranked among the most productive young players in the free agency era. Since 1977, Machado ranked eighth in career WAR among position players through age 25; Harper ranked 13th.
"We've gone way back," Machado said before the series opener. "Obviously I signed with Baltimore, and he was at D.C., so we were right up the road. ... And then leading up to free agency, we were two of the top free agents."
Now, four years after that offseason of rumors and conjecture, it's only fitting that their paths cross again with a chance to bring a World Series to the places where they ultimately signed to spend potentially the rest of their careers -- but the fact that they are here, wearing the uniforms of the Phillies and Padres, is not what anyone could have predicted when they hit the hot stove market.
"He went to a city that wanted to bring a championship back," Machado said before Game 1. "And I went to a city that's never won a championship."
How Harper landed in Philadelphia
To say Harper was the most hyped free agent in MLB history when he hit the market after the 2018 season wouldn't be doing the level of hype justice. In the seasons leading up to his availability, Nationals road series turned into a chance for every fan base to dream of the outfield phenom choosing to become the future face of its franchise -- with the New York Yankees, Chicago Cubs and Los Angeles Dodgers viewed as the most likely landing spots.
Harper had grown up in Las Vegas rooting for the Yankees, and when the Yankees zero in on a star free agent, the richest franchise in the sport usually gets its guy. Harper's fame was a reminder of Yankees icons of the past, and his left-handed swing was tailor-made for Yankee Stadium. The Cubs had ended their World Series drought in 2016 and won 95 games in 2018, but their offense had fallen off, finishing just 11th in the NL in home runs. They could've slid right fielder Jason Heyward over to center to make room for Harper in the same lineup as his childhood friend Kris Bryant. The Dodgers were coming off back-to-back World Series defeats, but the 2018 payroll had been some $58 million less than in 2017, so they had money to spend and had grown disenchanted with right fielder Yasiel Puig.
The speculative buzz entering Harper's free agency frenzy was whether he would achieve the largest contract in North American sports history, eclipsing the 13-year, $325 million contract Giancarlo Stanton had signed with the Yankees in 2015. MLB Trade Rumors predicted Harper would land a 14-year, $420 million contract with the Dodgers. FanGraphs projected a 10-year, $330 million deal.
But Harper hit free agency with some warts on his résumé -- and the blank check from the team of his choosing that was pictured for so long never really presented itself.
He was coming off the worst year of his career -- he had been valued at just 1.8 WAR in 2018 via Baseball-Reference.com after hitting .249/.393/.496. His defensive metrics took a hit that season, in part because he started 59 games in center field, where he fared poorly, but also, some felt, because he might have been trying to avoid injury and had lost some aggressiveness. It was fair for teams to wonder if Harper was still an MVP candidate, or if he was already in decline at age 25.
There was a widespread belief that Harper really wanted to play for the Dodgers, but L.A. refused to make a long-term offer, instead reportedly proposing a shorter-term deal at four years and $45 million per season. The Yankees, with a young slugger in Aaron Judge and most of the money remaining on Stanton's megadeal after acquiring him a year earlier from the Marlins, didn't need another right fielder. The Cubs made no major acquisitions that winter.
Without a natural fit emerging, Harper's free agency extended into the start of spring training. Enter a team that wanted to spend big, but seemed less attractive than playing in the bright lights of Los Angeles or New York: the Phillies, a team coming off a sub-.500 record.
Finally, on Feb. 28, news broke that Harper was signing a 13-year, $330 million contract. Yes, he and agent Scott Boras broke Stanton's record, but the average annual value was lower than many expected. The Phillies were mired in mediocrity at the time, coming off an 80-82 season -- their seventh consecutive non-winning season. Despite that, Harper was drawn to the organization.
"We connected very well with [Phillies owner] John Middleton, connected very well with the city of Philadelphia, with the fans, with the organization, kind of their plan, what they were going to do at the time," Harper said on Monday. "I knew John Middleton was going to do everything he could to win at all costs. So being able to come in here and play for an organization like this, it's been a lot of fun. Of course, we've had our ups and downs the last couple years."
Harper's deal included a full no-trade clause -- security that he would remain in Philadelphia.
"The goal was to get the longest contract possible," Boras said at the time. "Bryce wanted one city for the rest of his career. That is what I was instructed to do."
What brought Machado to San Diego
Meanwhile, if Harper's free agency was hindered by small bumps, Machado's free agent value was nearly cratered by roadblocks during his 82-game run with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Machado had moved from the Orioles midway through the 2018 season and made headlines for all the wrong reasons in the NLCS that season against the Milwaukee Brewers. In Game 2, he failed to run out a grounder. In Game 3, he made a pair of questionable slides. In Game 4, he appeared to intentionally kick Brewers first baseman Jesus Aguilar after grounding out to shortstop. The Brewers called him a dirty player -- and that might not have been his worst episode of the series.
In a nationally televised interview prior to Game 4, Machado didn't excuse his lack of hustle but then added: "I'm not going to change. I'm not the type of player that's going to be 'Johnny Hustle,' and run down the line and slide to first base. ... That's just not my personality, that's not my cup of tea, that's not who I am."
For a player expecting a $300 million contract, you can imagine how that went over in the baseball world -- not just among fans but among executives, who expect a player making that kind of money to serve as a team leader in addition to putting up big numbers. In those days before the Houston Astros' cheating scandal became public, Machado was baseball's top villain.
There was a belief that Machado wanted to play for the Yankees, but on the heels of his postseason fiasco in Los Angeles, the Yankees never seemed interested -- and the question began to shift from how much he would get to who would actually pay up for the infielder.
His free agency dragged on into the start of spring training -- just as it had with Harper -- and Machado finally signed a 10-year, $300 million contract with the most surprising of teams: the Padres. Lowly San Diego, still in the midst of a rebuild and coming off a 96-loss season.
The Padres had signed only four free agents for more than $50 million in franchise history, although they had broken the bank the year before with Eric Hosmer's much-maligned $144 million deal -- a shoutout of sorts that this was a franchise trying to win. General manager A.J. Preller and the Ron Fowler/Peter Seidler ownership felt the Padres were ready to turn the corner. And remember: Fernando Tatis Jr. was still just a hotshot prospect, not a future star. They wanted a face of the franchise -- turmoil and all.
"Manny Machado is a generational talent, and we're ecstatic that he's chosen to spend his prime years in a San Diego Padres uniform," Fowler and Seidler said in a joint statement at the time. "This momentous agreement speaks volumes to the direction of our organization, as well as our commitment to bringing a World Series championship to the Friar Faithful and the City of San Diego."
How they've turned around their franchises
It does seem hard to believe these onetime phenoms are now in their 11th seasons in the majors, both seeking a first World Series title, both having taken teams with little hope of playing this far into the postseason before they signed to heights their cities haven't seen in years.
When Machado joined the Padres, the franchise was coming off eight straight losing seasons and didn't have much in the way of big league talent, evidenced by a 70-92 record his first season in San Diego. But the Padres did have a deep farm system and a front office willing to surround him with the players to contend.
After breaking out as one of the most exciting teams in baseball and earning a playoff berth in 2020, followed by a disappointing collapse the final two months in 2021, the Padres are finally where Machado thought they could get to when he signed four years ago.
"Where are we at, NLCS? I think it worked out pretty good, right?" he said. "This has been the vision all along. I think going back to the meeting when I sat down with A.J. and he convinced me to come over here, I saw the vision. I saw what he had and what this organization meant.
"Obviously, the city was one of the best cities in the country and one of the most beautiful ballparks all across the nation. It was a matter of coming out here and trying to do something special, and here we are today."
Machado has put the "Johnny Hustle" comment behind him. After a slow start in his initial season in San Diego, he has a remained a durable, consistent star with the Padres, finishing third in the MVP voting in 2020 and likely headed for another top-five finish in 2022 after hitting .298/.366/.531 with 32 home runs and 102 RBIs. Most importantly, he's playing in front of home fans who are loud and supportive.
"We fell short last time," Machado said Monday, referring to the mid-pandemic 2020 playoff loss to the Dodgers. "Now we're here. Now it's a matter of just going out there and competing and leaving it all out there. Seeing how the city reacted, especially in 2020 ... They weren't able to be there, and we were driving home, we're seeing everyone out on the streets, and they were going crazy. Seeing that was huge, and they weren't even able to be a part of it. Now here they are. You saw how the weekend was. It was unbelievable."
And that it was. The celebration in San Diego as the Padres eliminated the 111-win Dodgers from the postseason had the vibe of a city preparing to see a team do something it has never done before.
However, standing in its way is a Phillies team, Harper's team, that has a city believing something that seemed improbable earlier this year -- when the Phillies started the season just 22-29 and seemed a long shot to grab even the sixth and final spot in the newly expanded MLB postseason.
Four seasons into Harper's time in Philadelphia, it hasn't been smooth sailing for the Phillies. After going 80-82 the season before they signed Harper, the Phillies improved all the way to ... 81-81 during his first season. The 2020 season didn't go much better, and after an 82-80 finish in 2021, the Phillies had the second-longest playoff drought in the majors at 10 years.
Without the benefit of a deep farm system to develop talent around their star, the Phillies have had to rely on the free agent market to supplement Harper. Middleton has spent on players -- the Phillies had a top-10 payroll in 2019 and top five each of the past three seasons -- but it wasn't until this season that the Phillies finally made their first postseason since 2011.
Harper has held up his end of the bargain, hitting 34 home runs and driving in 114 runs in 2019 and winning his second MVP award in 2021 after hitting .309/.419/.615 with 35 home runs.
It hasn't been the easiest of seasons for Harper. A shoulder injury that might require offseason surgery has limited him to DH duties since mid-April. Still, he was having another outstanding season at the plate, hitting .318/.385/.599 when, in late June, the Padres' Blake Snell fractured Harper's thumb with a pitch. Harper missed two months and struggled upon his return, hitting .227 with three home runs over his final 35 games.
He remained focused, however, as the Phillies crawled into that final playoff spot.
"Like I've been saying, every day is a new day," he said after Game 1. "Doesn't matter if I'm 0-for-4 or 4-for-4 as long as we win the game. I don't care what happens. I just want to win at any cost in anything that we do. I've told you guys numerous times, hitting the ball over the plate and doing damage with it and not swinging at the ones out of the zone. Just try and make it as simple as possible and understand that the most important thing is winning."
The big October showdown
Harper's approach has paid off for him. He has found his postseason stroke, hitting .419 with four home runs in eight games -- including three games in a row -- as he heads into Game 3 of the NLCS.
Machado homered against the Mets in the wild-card series and against the Dodgers in Game 2 of the division series -- off two guys named Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw. As Buster Olney pointed out, however, Machado isn't receiving as many pitches in the strike zone as he did in the regular season while the hitters around him have struggled.
Indeed, the Padres acquired Juan Soto and Josh Bell to boost their lineup, but Soto has just six home runs in 60 games with the Padres, including none in the postseason. Bell has also struggled, hitting .192 with three home runs in 53 regular-season games with San Diego and just .222 in the playoffs with two home runs heading into NLCS Game 3. As much as this series has a Harper vs. Machado feel to it, neither can do it alone.
Still, all eyes are on the two $300 million players.
"I love this," Harper said after Game 1. "I really enjoy coming to ballparks that are hostile. I don't know, I just really enjoy it. I mean, growing up, I played in a lot of hostile environments, as well, and I know it's not the big leagues, but at the same time when you're 11 years old and you're playing in front of 5,000 people, that's a lot. I'm not saying that's bigger than this or anything, but it kind of gets you prepared. ... I live for this moment. I live for these opportunities to be here."