The Toronto Blue Jays had a lot of helium heading into 2022, coming off a 2021 season in which they went 91-71 and missed the wild card by one game. They fell short of the Red Sox and Yankees, who both finished 92-70, but buried in that heartbreak was the fact that the Blue Jays had outscored their opponents by 183 runs -- more than the Red Sox (80) and Yankees (42) combined.
Yes, Toronto lost Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and second baseman Marcus Semien, who finished third in the MVP voting after cranking 45 home runs. But the Blue Jays signed Kevin Gausman and traded for Matt Chapman this offseason. They were also looking ahead to full seasons from sophomore ace Alek Manoah and 2021 deadline acquisition Jose Berrios, and had two young stars to build a lineup around in MVP runner-up Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and shortstop Bo Bichette.
My college Bradford Doolittle's projection system pegged the Jays to go 93-69, the second-best record in the American League, behind the Astros. FanGraphs projections predicted 92-70, the best record in the AL.
The Blue Jays haven't played at that level though, sitting at 46-42, but if the season had ended after Tuesday they would have made the playoffs as the third wild card, a half-game ahead of the fast-charging Mariners and 1.5 games ahead of the suddenly streaking Orioles.
That wasn't good enough for manager Charlie Montoyo to keep his job, and his firing was viewed as a surprise across the sport. The Jays have gone just 3-9 in July and were swept in a four-game series in Seattle over the weekend, a series they appeared to sleepwalk through, especially in contrast to the feel-good, high-energy Mariners. The 6-5 defeat Sunday was a defensive disaster, as two runs scored after a potential inning-ending double play was lost when a throw went through the webbing of Guerrero's glove at first. In the eighth inning, rookie catcher Gabriel Moreno dropped a popup for an error and Eugenio Suarez followed with two-run, go-ahead home run.
That game appeared to be the final straw:
If the playoffs started today, the Toronto Blue Jays would be in.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 13, 2022
They're 1.5 games out of the top wild card spot in the American League.
That wasn't enough to save Charlie Montoyo's job. Bad losses and questions in the clubhouse about leadership were a devastating combination.
As Jeff followed up:
This sentiment is echoed throughout the Blue Jays organization. People love Charlie Montoyo as a person. He was a stabilizing force during covid. "A truly good man," one person told me.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) July 13, 2022
But the Blue Jays are in win-today mode. Expectations change. Thresholds differ. A now move. https://t.co/9TCV2nKJvy
The Blue Jays are just 236-236 under Montoyo and while last season's run differential can be viewed as a good sign, it was also a big negative that the Blue Jays fell well short of their Pythagorean record, falling eight wins short of the 99 wins their run differential suggested. The Blue Jays were 15-15 in one-run games and 3-9 in extra-inning games. They've done better in one-run games this year at 20-14, but they're 2-5 in extra-inning games. The failure to win those ghost-runner games is essentially the reason Montoyo no longer has a job when you look at the impact in the standings.
Is that fair? Maybe not, but when you lose those games time after time, the frustration mounts in the clubhouse and in the front office.
Of course, it hasn't helped that the offense, while solid overall, has seen dips in performance from its core group:
Guerrero: Down 177 points in OPS
Bichette: Down 96
Teoscar Hernandez: Down 105
George Springer: Down 90
Chapman: Down 171 from Semien
Don't discount that last one. The Jays lost a lot of offense in Semien's departure -- not that he was going to do that again (and he hasn't with the Rangers) -- and despite the emergence of All-Star catcher Alejandro Kirk, the offense hasn't carried the team like many expected it to. And the pitching staff simply just hasn't been good enough, not with Berrios sitting on a 5.38 ERA, Yusei Kikuchi now on the injured list after going 3-5 with a 5.12 ERA and Hyun Jin Ryu out for the season with Tommy John surgery.
Besides this recent skid, one other thing stands out: The Jays are 4-8 against the Yankees while getting outscored 60 to 35 in those games. The Yankees have handed them their lunch -- and then stole their dinner and ate all the dessert.
Montoyo becomes the third manager fired midseason, alongside Joe Maddon with the Angels and Joe Girardi with the Phillies. It's a hockey mentality and once was also common in baseball, but prior to this season there hadn't been a manager fired before the All-Star break since Bryan Price of the Reds in 2018 and then before that in 2016 (when the Braves fired Fredi Gonzalez and hired an unknown Triple-A manager named Brian Snitker). The Angels have continued to struggle, but the Phillies have gone 24-13 under Rob Thomson.
Will the same turnaround that Philadelphia has experienced happen in Toronto under former bench John Schneider? It's possible, especially since Guerrero is capable of going on a tear like he did last year, when he hit .332/.431/.658 in the first half. Berrios is coming off a 13-strikeout performance, so maybe he's starting to fix his woes. Manoah has been a beast.
Indeed, even without Ryu, FanGraphs projects the Jays' rest-of-season winning percentage at .566, second-best in the AL behind the Astros -- and good enough to propel them to 88 wins and the No. 1 wild-card berth.
That's exactly why the Jays fired Montoyo now. There are still 74 games to play and there's too much talent here to let this season slip away.