It's time for everybody's favorite summer debate program: that's right, MLB All-Star Snubs!
Before we get into the arguing and the name-calling, I must first make my annual reminder that MLB All-Star Games have always left plenty of future Hall of Famers off their rosters.
I always use the 1979 game, which I attended as a young kid, as an example. All-Stars that year included such luminaries as Jeff Newman, Bruce Bochte, Lee Mazzilli, Dave Kingman and Joe Sambito -- all fine major leaguers. But among the non-All-Stars that year: Paul Molitor, Robin Yount, Eddie Murray, Andre Dawson, Ozzie Smith, Carlton Fisk, Phil Niekro, Dennis Eckersley, Jack Morris, Tom Seaver, Bert Blyleven, Fergie Jenkins, Don Sutton, Goose Gossage and Jim Palmer. And that's just the Hall of Famers.
The point: Selecting an All-Star team is never easy. You're weighing what a player has done in his career with what he's done in the present season -- while still finding room for one player from each team on the 32-man rosters.
OK, let's get to the snubs -- although I must say, I think the players' and league's selections were actually better than ever.
Remember the roster rules: Fans vote in the nine starters, while the players select one reserve at each position, plus the first five starting pitchers and three relievers. That gives the league office open spots for two position players and four pitchers for each league (which is where they have to find reps from the Royals and Diamondbacks).
Enough already. Who is this year's biggest snub?
I'm going with Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman. There are three reasons: (1) he's one of the sport's biggest names; (2) he's having a good season, hitting .296/.376/.477 with 10 home runs and 52 RBIs heading into Sunday, ranking in the top 10 in the National League in RBIs, runs scored, hits, doubles and on-base percentage; and (3) the game is at his home park, Dodger Stadium. That's usually a slam dunk for selection.
Except... it actually makes sense why Freeman didn't make it.
As the starter, the fans voted in Paul Goldschmidt, which was absolutely the right call; Goldschmidt has been the first-half MVP of the NL. The players voted in Pete Alonso as the backup first baseman. That's fair as well, since Alonso entered play Sunday leading the NL with 70 RBIs and ranking second with 23 home runs. Freeman does lead Alonso in both Baseball-Reference WAR (2.6 to 2.3) and FanGraphs WAR (3.0 to 2.2) -- but Alonso is a solid choice and a big name in his own right.
Could Freeman have filled another infield spot? Maybe, except that, after all the dust had settled for player-selected reserves, the Rockies still needed an All-Star rep. And have just one clear candidate: first baseman C.J. Cron, who is hitting .295/.350/.551 with 20 home runs and 66 RBIs. You had to go with Cron. That left just one more position-player slot -- and the Nationals still needed a player, too. They had just two candidates: Josh Bell, a first baseman, and Juan Soto, who didn't make it as one of the players' reserves. The league office went with Soto rather than another first baseman, so there was no room for Freeman.
OK, fine, but -- the biggest? It sounds like you're giving Freeman a lot of credit for what he's done in the past. What about Tommy Edman? He's third among all NL position players in Baseball-Reference WAR.
Yes, I absolutely am giving credit Freeman some credit for being awesome every year. For being a star. But good call on Edman. He is third on B-R, behind Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, and sixth in FanGraphs WAR among NL position players. The players voted for Jeff McNeil as the backup at second base and Dansby Swanson at shortstop -- nothing wrong with those selections, especially Swanson, who arguably deserved to start over Trea Turner. Edman might have been hurt by the fact that he's moved from second base to shortstop during the season. But more likely, it came down to the fact that, let's face it, most All-Star selections are about offense, and a lot of Edman's value comes from defense. Think of a guy like Andrelton Simmons, who ranked 10th among all position players in WAR from 2012 to 2018 -- he never made an All-Star team.
P.S.: There's still a way Freeman might make it, right?
You're right. Bryce Harper is injured and will have to be replaced. I hope the league doesn't pick a DH, because there isn't another good DH in the NL. That spot should go to Freeman.
OK, pitchers. What about Carlos Rodon and Zack Wheeler? How do these guys not make it? It's not like they weren't great last year as well.
Yeah, they both have strong cases, but they got caught up in the "one dude per team" rule. They rank 1 and 4 in FanGraphs WAR and 6-7 in Baseball-Reference WAR among NL pitchers, so they're obviously among the 12 best pitchers in the league. But the NL is absolutely loaded with starting pitcher candidates. The players voted in Sandy Alcantara, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Tony Gonsolin and Joe Musgrove. Gonsolin is the "least proven" of the group, but it's hard to ignore a guy who is 11-0 with a 1.62 ERA.
Remember, Cron and Soto filled out the position players, but the NL still needed reps for the Pirates, Reds and Diamondbacks. So the league office had to go pitchers there: Pittsburgh reliever David Bednar (having a great season), Cincinnati starter Luis Castillo (2.92 ERA) and Arizona reliever Joe Mantiply (who?). That left one open slot... and the league went with Clayton Kershaw. Since the game is at Dodger Stadium, I love that call. (And it's not like Kershaw is washed up -- he's 6-2 with a 2.40 ERA.)
OK, got it, NL pitching field was stacked. What about in the AL? What does their corps look like?
It's lacking one notable participant -- Dylan Cease of the White Sox is probably my biggest snub in the American League. He's 7-4 with a 2.45 ERA and an absurd 133 strikeouts in 92 innings. The players can't hit him, but they didn't vote for him, instead going with Gerrit Cole, Justin Verlander, Shane McClanahan, Alek Manoah and Nestor Cortes. I have no issues with the first four, but Cortes looks like a guy who rode the best two months of his life to an All-Star spot. He had a 1.50 ERA through June 2 -- but a 5.34 ERA in six starts since then. I would have gone with Cease over Cortes.
OK, so the players didn't pick him -- but the league still couldn't fit him in?
Nope. Paul Blackburn of the A's and Martin Perez of the Rangers are both having good seasons and were also their team's only strong candidates. Reliever Gregory Soto was selected as Detroit's All-Star (commissioner's selection Miguel Cabrera doesn't count), so that left just one choice and the league went with the Astros' Framber Valdez. Close call there -- close enough not to get too worked up over it (unless you're Dylan Cease or a White Sox fan).
Can I get worked up over Kevin Gausman? The dude leads AL pitchers in FanGraphs WAR!
We seem to be using "dude" a lot here, aren't we? Yes, he does lead at the start of Sunday, but remember, FanGraphs WAR is FIP-based, which looks at strikeout-to-walk ratio and home runs. Gausman has excelled in those areas (100 to 16 and just two home runs allowed). FanGraphs' numbers, meanwhile, ignore hits and runs -- and Gausman has allowed 96 hits in 88 innings. His 2.86 ERA ignores seven unearned runs. He's been terrific, but there are a lot of good choices here -- including Seattle's Logan Gilbert (10-3, 2.61 ERA heading into his start Sunday).
Any AL position players get snubbed? Besides Ty France, of course?
You know, not really. Astros rookie shortstop Jeremy Pena has the most WAR of those who didn't make it, but he's part of a crowded group at AL shortstop. The fans voted for Tim Anderson and the players picked Xander Bogaerts as the reserve. Pena has been outstanding, but it's been two-plus months into his career. Also, there was no room: The two league selections were Royals outfielder Andrew Benintendi (had to pick somebody from the Royals) and Mariners phenom Julio Rodriguez -- who somehow wasn't voted in as one of the three outfield reserves even though he ranks sixth in B-R WAR and seventh in FanGraphs WAR among all AL position players.
Who are the most surprising All-Stars?
This one's easy. Yankees catcher Jose Trevino and the aforementioned Mantiply. The Yankees didn't even acquire Trevino from the Rangers until April 2. Halfway through May he was hitting .175 with seven hits. Now he's one of the unlikeliest All-Stars you'll ever see -- behind, maybe, Mantiply. Drafted by the Tigers in 2013 in the 27th round, the Yankees claimed Mantiply on waivers in 2016. The Yankees released him, signed him again, let him go again, he signed with the Reds and then the Yankees purchased him from the Reds in 2019 -- only to let him go again after that season, when he signed with the Diamondbacks. He's a 31-year-old lefty reliever and, you know, he's been really good, with a 1.91 ERA and a 34-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He'll always be able to call himself an All-Star.
Wild ride. Any other cool stories among the selections?
Nine of the 12 American League pitchers are first-time All-Stars, which feels pretty interesting. Six of the NL pitchers are first-timers, so that's 15 first-time pitchers -- plus another 15 position players. In the end, nearly half (30 of 64) of the All-Stars are first-time selections. That has been par for the course for recent All-Star Games. Maybe you like rosters to be more of the proven All-Star types, but this does speak to all the wonderful players we're getting to watch this year -- guys like Rodriguez and Manoah and McClanahan and Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Kyle Tucker. They'll all be back.
OK, last one. Who should the starting pitchers be?
It looks like Cole may be the only pitcher to start next Sunday, which eliminates him as an option (and opens the door for Cease to make it). Based on the 2022 numbers, you probably have to go McClanahan versus Alcantara (who just threw another seven scoreless innings Sunday). I'm good with that.
But based on sentiment: Verlander versus Kershaw. I love the young aces, but I also love the idea of starting two future Hall of Famers. And get this: Kershaw has somehow never started an All-Star Game. Kershaw at Dodger Stadium? With apologies to Alcantara, you have to go with Kershaw.