The offseason run on free-agent starting pitchers continued on Wednesday with the news that longtime ace Justin Verlander has agreed to a deal to return to the Houston Astros. ESPN's Jeff Passan reported that Verlander will sign for one guaranteed season at $25 million, plus a player option for 2023, also reportedly valued at $25 million.
How did the Astros do? Let's grade it.
Pitchers have come back from two-year, injury-related absences. One encouraging example that ought to be fresh in everyone's mind is 2021 National League Cy Young finalist Zack Wheeler, who did not pitch in a big league game in either 2015 or 2016. New York Yankees righty Jameson Taillon became an elite hurler after missing two straight seasons as a prospect in the Pittsburgh Pirates' system.
The big difference and, hence, the big uncertainty when it comes to Verlander is that most anecdotal cases you can think of where a pitcher missed that much time because of a major injury, and returned to be elite, involved players a heck of a lot younger than him. The history of players of Verlander's ilk, in this situation, is uncertain. The Astros embraced that uncertainty when they declared their willingness to pay Verlander -- who has pitched in one big league game in the past two seasons and will be 39 on Opening Day -- $50 million for the next two years.
Let's start with Verlander, for whom this contract is a coup. But if you buy into the buzz that has surrounded his free agency since his showcase in Florida last week, in which he dazzled representatives all over baseball with his stuff, the deal is not surprising. The Astros might have gone an extra million or two and been one of the few clubs offering the option year, but if Noah Syndergaard is getting $21 million for his first post-injury season, Verlander getting $25 million is rational.
This really speaks to the value of the ace-level pitcher, who has shown the ability to throw a high number of innings. The Astros are coming off a postseason in which they fell two wins shy of a championship, an outcome that is fairly remarkable considering how badly they were scrambling to fill innings by the time the World Series wrapped up. It's not a stretch to say that with a healthy Verlander atop that pitching staff, the Astros would have taken those final steps and given Dusty Baker his first managerial championship.
Verlander can help the Astros finish that quest over the next two seasons. They were not desperate for starting pitching, which is why signing Verlander might position Houston better than most to gamble on a return to health for the two-time Cy Young winner. Just last week, Astros general manager James Click told reporters he thought his rotation was well-situated with a list of returnees that includes Luis Garcia, Jake Odorizzi, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Cristian Javier, plus some prospects who might be ready to ascend.
If you think of the Verlander signing as gravy on, rather than the meat of, the rotation, then the risk factor goes down. While we can't know for sure that the stuff Verlander showed in his showcase will translate to a full season until he does it, there are lots of reasons to think he is a strong candidate to make that happen. He has a record of durability unmatched for a pitcher of his generation, with a reputation for knowing his body and maintaining it with a strong work ethic.
He also is a future Hall of Famer who has been more outspoken than any player I can remember about his desire for longevity. Verlander still wants to pitch into his mid-40s, and doing so effectively could mean that baseball hasn't yet seen its last 300-game winner, though that possibility took a major hit with the two missed seasons.
This might be a cynical way to look at it, but the option year on the deal gives Verlander and the Astros a mutual interest in managing his workload in 2022, something else that would be made easier if a healthy version of the rotation outlined above comes to fruition. Verlander has pitched all of one game for Baker, and the Astros will be breaking in a new pitching coach after Brent Strom departed for the Arizona Diamondbacks, so it's different team than the one Verlander starred for in 2019. It seems as if he and the club would have to have come to an accord on his expected role, a question as crucial as his contract value.
For Houston, you don't want to push Verlander so hard that his surgically repaired elbow pops again, because you've got that second year, which is entirely at Verlander's discretion. The ideal 2022 for Verlander would be to throw, say, 150 to 170 innings, with his pitch counts and inning totals gradually ramping up as the season progresses. Then he is ready to take the ball in at the start of a series when the Astros hit the postseason.
If there is a downside for the Astros, it's all about the money and the opportunity cost that comes with paying $25 million to one pitcher, who might or might not be ready for star-level production in the coming season. Houston needs, among other things, a shortstop, and if the Astros will be seeking to replace the production of Carlos Correa with one of this winter's elite shortstop free agents, a list that includes Correa himself, it's going to cost them.
So how far are the Astros willing to expand their payroll to get back over that title hump after falling just short in two of the past three seasons? In the short term, that's the concern with paying Verlander -- if his presence inhibits other moves. In the middle term -- because there is no long term right now in his situation -- it's all about the upside that comes with one of the era's most dominant pitchers as compared to the risk that comes with him returning from his first major injury.
Still, Verlander made $33 million last year while pitching zero innings. Former teammate and fellow free agent Zack Greinke made $32.9 million. That's about $66 million on two starting pitchers; now Verlander will get $25 million while Greinke is looking for a team. Seems like there should be plenty of funds left to fill out the roster.
The thing that makes you want to give the Astros the benefit of the doubt: If they hadn't made Verlander the offer that he accepted, another team was going to be more than ready to do something very similar. I landed on this grade simply because of the post-injury uncertainty. But, really, you have to love this bold move by the Astros, not just for what Verlander might do for them, but for what he won't do for an American League rival.