HOUSTON -- Game 1 of the World Series will be played tonight. You have questions about it. I have answers.
Can you answer me six questions in one?
Of course.
What? The 117th World Series.
Who? The Atlanta Braves vs. the Houston Astros.
Where? Games 1-2 and, if necessary, 6-7 at Minute Maid Park in Houston; Games 3, 4 and, if necessary, 5 at Truist Park in suburban Atlanta.
When? Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday and Nov. 2-3; all games broadcast live on Fox and ESPN Radio around 8:10 p.m. ET.
Why? Because it's important to crown a champion.
How? Well, that's a complicated one.
Complicated how?
Mainly in the different paths the teams took to get here. Houston reached its fifth consecutive American League Championship Series and won it for the third time in that stretch, putting it in historically excellent company and setting it up to win a World Series that would have far more resonance than an average title. Atlanta survived an injury-riddled regular season, won a legitimately terrible National League East with 88 wins and handily beat 97- and 106-win teams to earn its spot here.
Wait. What do you mean by resonance?
< open up a can of worms dot gif >
Fine. We'll get to that later. What makes the Astros, as you put it, "just that damn good"?
For one, they can really, really hit. Dusty Baker, the Astros' manager, could take pieces of paper with the names of their top seven hitters, draw them blindly from a hat, make out his lineup and generate little to no grief, because those top seven are that good. Jose Altuve is a future Hall of Fame second baseman, Michael Brantley is one of the purest hitters in baseball, Alex Bregman is a former MVP runner-up, Yordan Alvarez is a machine coming off an ALCS MVP showing, Carlos Correa may get $300 million-plus in free agency this winter, Kyle Tucker will get MVP votes this season and Yuli Gurriel, who won the AL batting title this season, hit seventh in all six ALCS games.
So, yeah, Atlanta's pitching has its work cut out.
Beyond that, Houston has a bullpen that was remarkable against Boston in the ALCS. Now, we're just going to use the numbers of pitchers that typically work in relief roles -- Ryan Pressly, Kendall Graveman, Cristian Javier, Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Blake Taylor and Brooks Raley. Here's how they fared vs. the Red Sox:
25⅔ innings, 14 hits, eight walks, 28 strikeouts, three home runs, 1.40 ERA
For a bullpen that was supposed to be a weakness of the Astros, that's awfully strong.
How does Atlanta match up?
Quite well, actually. For a team missing its best player, it's awfully well-positioned. Like the Astros, Atlanta has a dynamic infield with its longtime star Freddie Freeman at first base, the do-everything Ozzie Albies at second, terminally solid Dansby Swanson at shortstop and emerging star Austin Riley at third. The outfielders ... well, more on them later.
If there's an area in which Atlanta on paper has an advantage, it's starting pitching. While Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia showed out in Games 5 and 6 for the Astros, the 1-2-3 punch of Charlie Morton, Max Fried and Ian Anderson is very compelling for Atlanta. Morton will face Valdez in Game 1, and while Game 2 starters have yet to be announced, the assumption is that it will be Fried and Garcia, whose role has grown in size with Lance McCullers Jr. out for the remainder of the postseason with an arm injury.
Oh, and Atlanta's bullpen. It has gone from Will Smith trending in every game he pitches -- usually giving Fresh Prince fans heart attacks -- to some unlikely incarnation of the Nasty Boys. In this era of hyperspecialization -- of the platoon advantage being something teams leverage to great effect -- the notion of Atlanta's three most important relievers being left-handed seems almost impossible. And yet here are Smith, Tyler Matzek and A.J. Minter doing this in the NLCS:
16 innings, four hits, five walks, 23 strikeouts, zero home runs, 1.13 ERA
For a bullpen that was supposed to be a weakness of Atlanta's, that's even stronger.
How did this Astros team come together?
Here's where the worms start crawling out. The story of the 2021 Astros can't be told without the story of Jeff Luhnow, their erstwhile general manager. Luhnow was fired in January 2020 following Major League Baseball's report on the Astros' use of a sign-stealing scheme that involved using live video to pick catchers' signs for a pitcher, then relaying the pitch that was coming via a bang on a trash can. It was egregious, it got Luhnow and Astros manager A.J. Hinch fired and despite the lack of discipline for players, they -- and the organization -- have spent the past two years as the personification of cheating not just in baseball but all of sports.
The thing is, even though only Altuve, Bregman, Correa and Gurriel remain from the 2017 team that used the trash can, Luhnow's fingerprints remain all over the roster.
Traded for: Yordan Alvarez (2016), Aledmys Diaz (2018), Zack Greinke (2019), Martin Maldonado (2019), Ryan Pressly (2018), Blake Taylor (2019)
Drafted: Alex Bregman (2013) Carlos Correa (2012), Lance McCullers Jr. (2012), Chas McCormick (2014), Jake Meyers (2015), Kyle Tucker (2015)
Signed internationally: Luis Garcia (2017), Yuli Gurriel (2016), Cristian Javier (2015), Jose Urquidy (2015), Framber Valdez (2015)
Signed in free agency: Michael Brantley (2018)
That's 17 of the 26 players expected to be on the Astros' World Series roster, plus their best pitcher, McCullers. It's their entire starting lineup on most nights minus Altuve, who debuted five months before Luhnow was hired in December 2011.
Current general manager James Click deserves credit for getting Graveman, Maton and reliever Yimi Garcia at the deadline along with dealing for Ryne Stanek in the offseason. He signed Jason Castro, whose go-ahead hit in Game 5 of the ALCS was massive, and Jose Siri, who parlayed a minor league deal into important big league time. But the core was intact already. And it's very, very good.
Since the scandal is part of who the Astros were and will be a storyline all series, let's get some quick ones out of the way. Would this still be a big deal if Astros players had been suspended?
Probably. But it would've been a whole lot less of a big deal. MLB's decision not to pursue discipline against the players was a Faustian bargain. It didn't want to fight the MLB Players Association. It wanted full details of what happened. In the process, it managed to tick off everybody: The lack of any sort of suspension leaves fans of teams that lost to the Astros in '17 livid; the unending harping on the scandal fatigued Astros fans who want to believe others were cheating and the Astros were just better at it.
Well, is that right?
Sort of, sure.
Here is a fact: The Astros were not the only team using technology to steal signs. Before the Astros' plan was uncovered, the New York Yankees were slapped on the wrist for a scheme that involved an Apple Watch. The Boston Red Sox were sanctioned after the Astros for illicit use of a video room. Other teams certainly might have been breaking the rules, too. The Astros, though, are the only ones whose scheme was detailed on the record by a player on the team at the time, which matters deeply.
Here is another fact: The Astros' use of technology to cheat was far more egregious than what we know about other teams' use. If you want to say cheating is cheating and that's that, fine. But that's like suggesting a crime is a crime. Some crimes are felonies and other misdemeanors for a reason. What the Astros did -- real-time relaying of pitch types to hitters -- goes well beyond what the Yankees and Red Sox did.
So why didn't what Chris Bassitt said get more run?
If you missed it, Bassitt, the Oakland A's All-Star starter, spoke with "The Chris Rose Rotation" podcast last week about cheating in baseball and offered what, to an Astros fan base tired of the subject, felt like absolution.
"Houston was not the only team doing stuff," Bassitt said. "There was a lot of people doing stuff. It was just fortunately, but unfortunately, only one team essentially got caught doing it or was the guinea pig of it to, like, clean the entire league up. But there was a lot going on. ...
"It was a point in the sport where the entire sport knew what was going on so it was, like, 'Well, Houston is doing this, so we've got to do this to try to keep up with them.' And instead of someone stepping up -- and I don't mean, like, a player, instead of, like, the MLB or whoever it may be -- they knew what was going on and instead, no one stepped up. Everyone let it happen."
Let's do a fact-check here. It's true Houston was not the only team doing stuff. Calling the Astros a "guinea pig," though, looks past the reality that they were the first team to get caught after MLB warned teams in the aftermath of the Apple Watch issue that further use of technology to steal signs would be accompanied by harsh discipline. And getting caught, whether fair or not, does matter. Barry Bonds is widely regarded as the most notorious performance-enhancing drug user in the sport's history. MLB never caught him, and he never spent a day suspended for it.
The entire sport, as Bassitt said, did know what was going on, and the suggestion that others were trying to keep up with the Joneses is reasonable enough. Further, MLB's lack of an investigation in the accusations being lobbed around is absolutely fair. Just look at the 2018 postseason and the paranoia that enveloped it. The league was deluged with teams accusing other teams of nefarious activities. Rather than look deeply into all of them, MLB chose not to dig into any of them.
That said: What Bassitt said on the podcast is nothing new. Reporters have written and said the same thing going on two years now. Because he's an active player, Bassitt's words carry weight, but there were no specific accusations, no detailed allegations -- and certainly nothing that makes the Astros look any better.
If the best defense of the Astros is that others were doing it, too -- well, that's a terrible defense. And if the second level of that argument is that the Astros are being unfairly maligned for cheating and don't deserve the level of disdain and villainy they've received -- well, then they shouldn't have cheated. Which is something Altuve, Correa, Bregman and plenty of others from that team have said themselves. Because here's the thing: They were so good they didn't need to.
But Altuve was wearing a buzzer, right?
Perhaps the most astute part of what Bassitt said was that the devastating consequences of the scandal still remain, and it's a pox on the sport. Look at where we are: Nearly two years after the revelations, nearly four years after the scheme's peak, and we're still talking about it. In part because MLB's lack of discipline left a sour taste in many mouths. In part because of the culture it fomented, wherein cheating at such a level is now seen as a real possibility.
To answer the question: There is no evidence Altuve used a wearable device that signaled which pitches were coming. MLB didn't find any. Reporters, including myself, have looked for it and not found any. In fact, a study by Astros fan Tony Adams that covered more than 50 games and listened for trash can bangs found scant few during Altuve's at-bats. Teammates have said he barely participated in the trash-can-banging scheme. So if anyone was to use a wearable, Altuve would seem to be awfully low on the list of those culpable.
In other words: Stop spreading conspiracies.
If the Astros' lineup is that dangerous, how can Atlanta stop it?
Against most teams, Atlanta's left-handed relievers are really scary. Funny enough, its best reliever against left-handed hitters this season was actually Luke Jackson -- a right-hander. But that's the answer. Braves manager Brian Snitker needs to outmaneuver his counterpart, Dusty Baker. He needs to be willing to go to a reliever a batter early instead of a batter late. Because as we've seen this postseason with an Astros' team that has scored 45 of its 67 runs with two outs, there is no sleeping on this Houston offense. Every single pitch matters.
What's the best matchup in the series?
How about Snit vs. Dusty?
Snitker, 66, is a Braves lifer. He has been with the organization for six decades, starting as a player in 1977, transitioning to a coach in 1980 and moving up the chain to become manager in 2016. Atlanta finished last that season, third the next, and it has won four consecutive division titles since.
Baker, 72, is a legend, one of the winningest managers in history and on his fifth team. He last managed in a World Series in 2002 with San Francisco -- that's four teams ago -- and was brought in to Houston more for his calm, steadying presence (and ability to disarm a frothing media) than his strategic acumen.
In an era when teams are run almost purely on analytics -- and the Astros, in the past, were one of those clubs -- this is a battle between a pair of managers with their feet planted firmly in the old-school. Welcome to the Get Off My Lawn World Series.
How will that manifest itself?
Well, we're unlikely to see an opener used. There may, despite the imposing nature of both lineups, be bunts. Most interesting, though, will be relief pitching use. How long will the managers let starting pitchers go? And what roles will the bullpen play?
In truth, neither Snitker nor Baker is screaming for anyone to get off their lawn. (I think.) They both simply relish the way baseball used to be played, and if this can be a showcase for that, all the better.
Who else will Snitker be relying on?
The magical outfield that president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos put together in the aftermath of the torn ACL suffered by star center fielder Ronald Acuña Jr., the aforementioned best player. When Acuña went down on July 10, the Braves were on life support. After they lost their game the next day, they reached the season's midway point at 44-45. Thankfully for them, the New York Mets were a paper tiger, the Philadelphia Phillies a font of mediocrity, the Miami Marlins rebuilding and the Washington Nationals on the verge of engaging in a massive fire sale.
So rather than panic about what Acuña's injury did to a depleted outfield that already was without slugger Marcell Ozuna, who missed the majority of the season on administrative leave after police alleged he assaulted his wife, Anthopoulos looked to replace them.
On July 15, he acquired outfielder Joc Pederson from the Chicago Cubs. That was a Band-Aid. The real work came July 30, when Anthopoulos, in a flurry of activity, got Eddie Rosario from Cleveland, Adam Duvall from Miami and Jorge Soler from Kansas City.
Two weeks, four outfielders. And at what cost? For Pederson, a 23-year-old first baseman barely hitting .200 in Class A ball. For Duvall, catcher Alex Jackson, who in three big league seasons is batting .132. For Soler, a 23-year-old right-handed reliever in Class A. And for Rosario, exactly $1,946,237.
The math goes like this: Rosario made $8 million this season. He was owed $2,795,699 for the remainder of the year. The player for whom he was dealt, Pablo Sandoval -- whom Cleveland immediately released because this was a pure salary dump -- had $349,462 left on his one-year, $1 million contract. Cleveland threw in $500,000.
$2,795,699 - $500,000 - $349,462 = $1,946,237
For the NLCS MVP.
For what?
Yup. Eddie Rosario, 30, who was hitting .254/.296/.389 at the deadline, who'd been so mediocre that Cleveland didn't just give him away but paid Atlanta for the pleasure, has been the best hitter in the world over the past week.
In the NLCS, he went 14 for 25, slashed .560/.607/1.040, whacked three home runs, drove in nine runs and hit the game-breaking three-run Game 6 homer off Walker Buehler that propelled Atlanta past the Los Angeles Dodgers in the clincher.
Had Soler not tested positive for COVID-19 before the series, Rosario might not have seen as many plate appearances. It's safe to say he'll be featured prominently in the Braves' lineup tonight.
Who else is hot for Atlanta?
Uhhhhh. Kinda no one. But all it took was one scorching player and then individual contributors cobbling together one good game or two to beat the mighty Dodgers. Early in the series, it was Riley and Albies. Later in the series, it was Freeman. All series long, Rosario kept the Braves together. With him, they batted .260. Remove his 14 hits and they batted .218.
The pitching has been solid. But, again, remove the three lefties and an NLCS ERA of 4.67 (skewed by the 11 spot Los Angeles put up in Game 5) balloons to 6.25.
All of which is to say not that Atlanta is vulnerable or flawed or problematic. In fact, it might be the opposite: If it's getting to the World Series on the backs of Rosario, Smith, Matzek and Minter, imagine what it will look like if Freeman, Albies, Riley, Swanson, Morton, Fried or Anderson heats up.
We know Houston has staying power. Does Atlanta?
Maybe more than the Astros. Acuña is under contract at a severely discounted rate through 2028. Same goes for Albies through 2027. Anderson won't reach free agency until after the 2026 season, Riley 2025, Fried and injured starter Mike Soroka 2024. It has a midlevel payroll with plenty of room to grow.
There may be five teams in baseball positioned better than Atlanta. And that may be heavy.
Why didn't you mention Freeman there?
Because when this series ends, he'll be a free agent for the first time in his career. It couldn't have played much better for him, either. While historically, contracts for 32-year-old first basemen don't break the bank, Freeman is an awfully worthwhile exception. For a dozen years, he has been a linchpin for the Braves, capping his consistent excellence with an MVP award last season.
Freeman is going to get paid. Barring a stunning about-face, it will be by Atlanta. And considering what has happened this October, the terms will be much more to his liking than when they were discussing an extension over the summer and the parties couldn't come to an agreement. The leverage is firmly in Freeman's corner, and exploit that he shall.
Speaking of free agents, is this Correa's last week as an Astro?
There's a far likelier chance Correa ends up in a different uniform next season than Freeman. Correa is so much of what teams dream about in a free agent: young, productive, premium position. Yes, some will ding him because of the scandal, and others see his outspokenness as a negative. But the market will be robust, as it should be, on account of the things he brings outweighing the others.
Houston certainly can afford to meet Correa's market, even if it does hit the $300 million-plus territory that shortstops Francisco Lindor and Fernando Tatis Jr. entered this year. But there's a question of whether it would be better off spending the $30 million-plus a year he'll demand on pitching. All of the Astros' other top seven hitters remain under contract.
So, yes, this is most certainly Carlos Correa's time -- first in the World Series and then in free agency, when all eyes will be on him. He'll be tapping that imaginary watch of his because he knows much of the offseason, even if there is a labor stoppage, will revolve around the question of where he and his fellow shortstops -- Javier Baez, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Trevor Story -- will wind up.
All right, Passan. Enough blathering on. Who's winning this thing?
The Astros. Had them going to the World Series from the start of the postseason and it doesn't make any sense to abandon them now. They're not the strikeout machine Atlanta is on the pitching side, but the Astros' hitters put the ball in play at a far higher rate than the Braves, and in a matchup that's close in plenty of ways, the team that gives itself the best chance at a bounce or two going its way is the one primed to emerge victorious.
Houston in 6.