When the Los Angeles Dodgers faced a winner-take-all game in the NLDS against the San Francisco Giants, L.A.'s pitching options included two guys who have won Cy Young Awards and two more who might win that hardware in the future. But the guy who got the ball wasn't Julio Urias, or Walker Buehler, or Max Scherzer, or David Price. Rather, it was a relief pitcher who hadn't registered six outs in any appearance all season.
With that start, Corey Knebel became the embodiment of the opener strategy, the gambit that has swiftly gained popularity since the inventive Tampa Bay Rays unveiled it in May 2018. If some influential voices manifest this winter, however, and rules are redesigned to augment the value of the starting pitcher -- as is expected -- the opener will gradually move toward extinction, like the Wildcat formation, Theranos, or Kanye's presidential bid.
This year's postseason might be the last fertile ground for the use of openers. "I think we all see the problem," said one source. "Now it's a question of doing something about it."
This is how the sport could move away from openers:
1. There could be a set limit on the number of pitchers that teams carry on their rosters -- perhaps at 13 for the 2022 season, with the ceiling gradually reduced in the seasons that follow. Attached to that roster limit would be more stringent rules regarding promotions from and demotions to the minor leagues, so that teams can't bypass the staff limits by shuttling pitchers up and down.
After giving teams and organizations a few years to reignite their development of starting pitchers, the limits on pitching staffs could be reduced to 12, or maybe even 11. With that restriction in place, the days of regularly parading six or seven relievers in a game would be all but over. Managers would need more bulk from starting pitchers.
2. The designated hitter rule -- generally expected to extend to the National League next year -- could be tied to the use of starting pitchers. Each team would start a DH in every game, but would lose the DH with the removal of the starting pitcher. This would incentivize managers to keep the starting pitcher in the game as long as possible. (And yes, would help all batters, because starting pitchers -- working deeper into games, out of necessity -- would be more vulnerable late.)
In the past, the MLB Players Association has effectively blocked many of the on-field initiatives pushed by Major League Baseball. In this case, though, the players might co-sign for change, recognizing that the opener tactic is draining investment away from some of their biggest moneymakers: starting pitchers.
Additionally, the removal of the DH and the pitching staff limits would carve out new room on rosters for offensive specialists -- pinch hitters and pinch runners. In recent years, teams have sometimes started games with as few as 11 position players. But with the pitcher count maxed out at 13, each team would have at least 13 position players. That would mean more space for veteran position players graduating into part-time roles as they aged, rather than being pushed out as cheap relievers are given the highest priority, as has been the common practice in recent years.
No matter what form the forthcoming alterations take, however, it's clear there is broad support for change. The Tampa Bay Rays have demonstrated beyond any doubt that the opener strategy can be highly effective since introducing it more than three years ago. Privately, however, many in positions of influence in the industry hate the parade of relievers that must follow an opener because of how the tactic can drag games to a crawl.
The practice of deploying a bunch of pitchers for three or four batters at a time has fueled the trend toward more strikeouts, walks or home runs -- three true outcomes that might entertain Little League parents but often reduce MLB games to a four-hour slog with too few balls being put in play.
MLB games have had less action in recent years despite the lengthening time of game, especially in the postseason, as more managers use openers. The average start length in the postseason, by innings:
2021 (4.0)
2016 (5.0)
2011 (5.1)
2006 (5.2)
2001 (6.0)
The average game length in the postseason:
2021 (3 hours, 40 minutes)
2016 (3:29)
2011 (3:22)
2006 (3:07)
The Rays won 100 games this season, despite not having a single pitcher throw enough innings to qualify for the ERA title. In 2011, 39 MLB pitchers threw at least 200 innings. This year: Four.
Major League Baseball officials have been clamoring for years about the slowing pace of games, with commissioner Rob Manfred repeatedly threatening to implement a pitch clock -- and the union has never been interested in cooperating with his efforts.
But the players' association has hundreds of millions of reasons -- dollars -- to go along with rule adjustments that reestablish the preeminence of starting pitchers. As armies of relievers have increasingly shouldered the workload, absorbing the innings once handled by pitching rotations, the number of dollars spent on starters has begun to plummet. According to numbers dug out by ESPN researcher Paul Hembekides, in 2017, teams spent $886 million on starting pitchers, or 21% of all dollars spent. In 2021: $682 million, down to 17.4%.
The Rays are the model that everyone else has been following, and their recent machinations should concern the union leadership.
Prior to the 2019 season, Tampa Bay signed Charlie Morton to a two-year, $30 million contract -- this after investing $50 million in Blake Snell in a five-year deal. Following the Rays' World Series appearance in 2020, however, Tampa Bay let Morton walk away as a free agent, and traded Snell, opting to cover a lot of the 1,400+ innings of '21 with more pitchers throwing shorter outings.
In 2021, the Rays used 41 pitchers, eight more than in any season in their history, and their per-out cost declined significantly.
2020 dollars spent per out: $8,365
2021 dollars spent per out: $6,875
The union will not want that trend to continue. MLB does not want the use of the opener to continue. And so change looms.