It may have been a miraculous season for the St. Louis Cardinals, who stormed their way into the playoffs after being all but out of the race over the summer, but the miracle has finally ended.
It's the third year in a row the Cardinals have made the playoffs, but what's their future outlook now that it's all over? Bradford Doolittle takes a look at where the Cardinals stand and answers three key questions for the club moving forward to 2022 and beyond.
St. Louis Cardinals
Notable free agents: Matt Carpenter ($2 million buyout on club option), Andrew Miller, Carlos Martinez ($500K buyout on club option), J.A Happ, Jon Lester (mutual option), Kwang Hyun Kim
Trade candidates: Paul DeJong, Jack Flaherty
Extension candidates: Flaherty, Dylan Carlson, Tyler O'Neill, Harrison Bader, Alex Reyes
1. Will the Cardinals wade into the shortstop market?
A dreadful offensive season from Paul DeJong forced the Cardinals to give a lot of shortstop time to slick-fielding Edmundo Sosa, whose bat is not really suited for full-time duty. DeJong has two more guaranteed seasons left on the early extension he signed a few years ago, plus a couple of club options, but the money is reasonable, and if the Cardinals want to move him to make space for one of this winter's premier shortstop free agents, they probably could.
Going big at the top of the free-agent market is not the Cardinals' way, of course. The stars on the roster whom the Cardinals brought in from outside the organization -- Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt -- were both trade acquisitions, which is more St. Louis' style. Still, bringing in a dynamic offensive shortstop would be the best way to provide more than a marginal upgrade to the Redbirds' attack without disrupting the team's elite defense, or the special mix they've gathered in the outfield.
Corey Seager, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez (probably not), Trevor Story -- all would be a great on-field fit. With DeJong under contract and Sosa proving himself to, at the very least, be a big-league-caliber utility player, it's not something the Cardinals have to do. But should they?
2. Is Jack Flaherty an ace?
Over the second half of the 2019 season, Flaherty looked like a perennial Cy Young candidate who was just hitting his stride. He didn't pitch as well in 2020, but it was more a matter of inconsistency than anything else and, anyway, it was 2020. This season, Flaherty couldn't stay healthy, ending up with just 15 regular-season starts and 78 1/3 innings. Even when he pitched, the inconsistency continued. And while his ERA was good (3.22), Statcast's expected ERA was an unsightly 4.83, down only a bit from his 5.07 mark a season ago.
There was a lot of back-and-forth online last winter about the timing and possibility of a Flaherty extension, especially after he went to arbitration with the Cardinals on his 2021 contract. At this point, it's fair to wonder on what, exactly, St. Louis would be basing such an offer, if one were forthcoming. Would it be the Gibson-esque dominator from 2019? Or the more mid-rotation-ish player from the last two partial (for him) seasons?
The thing is, while rotation injuries left St. Louis scrambling for innings in 2021, going forward this still looks like a strong group. But it's a group that screams for a classic ace -- such as the one Flaherty fleetingly appeared to be. With two more arbitration seasons left on his service clock (pending the details of the new collective bargaining agreement), it's time for St. Louis management to make a call.
Do you lock up Flaherty as an ace? Or, if you don't think that's what he is, do you dangle him on the trade market while his value remains strong? If you let it ride, do you risk Flaherty eroding that trade value -- or pricing himself out of an extension you end up wishing you'd given him?
3. Speaking of that rotation, how does it stack up for 2022?
The Cardinals already reached an agreement with longtime rotation stalwart Adam Wainwright for 2022. Joining him will be Miles Mikolas and, presumably, Flaherty.
After that, things are unclear, but not in a bad way -- the Cards have plenty of options. Veteran J.A. Happ was effective in his time with the Cardinals, turning around a poor performance in Minnesota, and could be amenable to a return. Alex Reyes is a strong possibility to move into the rotation. Top prospects Matthew Liberatore and Zack Thompson both spent this season in Triple-A. Liberatore had some ups and downs, but progressed nicely through the season. Thompson struggled. Dakota Hudson returned after a long injury rehab to join the staff at the end of the season, and should be back to a normal routine entering 2022.
The Cardinals will need to make a decision on the club option for erratic Carlos Martinez, and also whether to pursue Kwang Hyun Kim, who will hit free agency after just two mostly successful big league seasons.
So there are options -- and they are mostly good ones. More than anything though: After 2021, the Cardinals have to make sure there is enough depth in the high minors to cover for injuries.
Oh, and one final thing just to leave for any Cardinals fan who dares to dream: There is an elite starting pitcher on the market who just happens to hail from the St. Louis area. You may have heard of him: Max Scherzer.