OVER THE NEXT four weeks of the MLB playoffs, there will be 30-plus games of significant consequence, at least nine win-or-go-home contests and one trophy lifted by the team that survives the grind of October. There will be thousands of pitches, more than 1,000 balls in play, hundreds of strikeouts and hits and upward of 100 home runs -- all of which will help crown a champion.
Major League Baseball's postseason will hold its 117th World Series starting Oct. 26. And in anticipation of that, let's answer 20 questions that put a bow on the 2021 regular season and prepare you for what's to unfold over the next month and those thereafter.
What is this October going to look like?
Should be pretty great. Kicking off the festivities, the sport's greatest rivalry in a winner-take-all game, with the team that beat them both during the regular season ready to vanquish them once more. On night two, there is a superteam that could be gone after one game and a superteam awaiting it if it advances. There's the Henry Aaron memorial series in the National League, and one more between the American League's two most-talented-on-paper teams.
Every October is unique, and it can be vulnerable to quick series and bad matchups. This one does not look that part. The minimum number of games is 26. The maximum is 43. Here's guessing the final number will be a lot closer to the latter than the former.
Who has the advantage in the AL wild card?
It's Yankees at Red Sox, Gerrit Cole vs. Nathan Eovaldi, the Yankees' vaunted bullpen vs. the Red Sox's fierce lineup, the Red Sox's patchwork 'pen vs. the Yankees' inconsistent bats.
Cole was signed for games like this, and again this year he was one of the best pitchers in baseball. He faced Boston four times this season and pitched to his high standards just once -- in the one game at Yankee Stadium. In his three outings at Fenway Park, Cole went 16 innings, allowed 19 hits, walked seven, struck out 20, yielded five home runs and had a 6.19 ERA.
Eovaldi was nearly as effective as Cole this season -- he actually finished first in the AL among pitchers in wins above replacement -- but turned in his worst start of the season 11 days ago in New York. The Yankees chased him after 2⅔ innings, dropping three runs in the first inning and four in the third. Eovaldi had been good to great in his four prior starts this year against New York, and he rebounded in his last start with six shutout innings against Baltimore, but the taste of that last game lingers on his palate.
And yet to focus on the starters may not be the most prudent thing to do. Remember: Aaron Boone and Alex Cora are going to manage this game like it's their last of the season -- because it may be. The starters will have short leashes -- because they should. And while a single-game bullpen performance is, aptly, a wild card, the Yankees' relief corps is deeper and better than the Red Sox's, and the ability for Boone to empty his gives him the advantage, so long as he manages it with the same deft touch he did in their season finale against Tampa Bay.
Cora knows this. He also knows the Yankees on Saturday chose the option to face Boston instead of Toronto in the event of a four-way tie and will milk that for all the motivation it's worth. Which may not be a ton, sure, but it's something -- and when your team has the slightest disadvantage, which the Red Sox do, even playing at home, every little bit matters.
How about the NL wild card?
This one is a little simpler. The Los Angeles Dodgers were the second-best team in baseball by record, going 106-56, and the best by run differential, at +269, 59 runs ahead of the No. 2 San Francisco Giants. They are starting Max Scherzer -- about whom we'll talk more later -- and even without Max Muncy, their injured first baseman, boast the game's most dangerous lineup. Even the Dodgers' bullpen, maligned in the past, had the second-best ERA in baseball this season (behind the Giants, naturally).
The St. Louis Cardinals are not in the Dodgers' class. They needed a 17-game winning streak to push themselves into playoff contention. Their lineup isn't as good. Their starter, Adam Wainwright, though still brilliant at 40, isn't Scherzer. Their bullpen doesn't stack up.
If this were a 100-game series, or 50, or even 20, the winner would not be in question. But it's one. Miami beat the Dodgers three times this year. So did Arizona. And the Cubs. And in its seven-game season series, St. Louis did, too, 4-3. Regardless of the advantages, one game renders this a relative coin flip. The Dodgers are the favorites, yes, and by the odds overwhelming ones. But it's baseball. And nobody would be terribly surprised if 106 wins vanishes in a cloud of devil magic.
What's the best first-round series?
Well, that sort of depends on the wild cards, right? If the Dodgers win, it's Dodgers-Giants. A 106-win team vs. a 107-win team is the sort you'd rather see in the World Series than a five-game division series. If not, the prospect of Yankees-Rays is awfully tantalizing -- particularly because the teams really don't like one another.
But Houston-Chicago is locked in, so that's the pick. Both have offenses that run deep and, when they're on, nuclear hot. Even with Carlos Rodon's status unknown, the White Sox's starting pitching depth -- with Lance Lynn, Lucas Giolito and Dylan Cease, not to mention Dallas Keuchel and Reynaldo Lopez -- beats Houston's, and their bullpen runneth over with live arms: closer Liam Hendriks, setup man Craig Kimbrel, right-handers Michael Kopech and Ryan Tepera, left-handers Garrett Crochet and Aaron Bummer.
The Astros' lineup can eat alive even the best pitching staff, though, and Houston's expected rotation of Lance McCullers Jr., Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy is sneaky good and buttressed by a similarly effective bullpen.
If there's any division series that's likely to go the full five, this one may be it.
What injuries are likeliest to affect teams?
Muncy's elbow injury suffered at first base on the day's final regular-season game trying to field an errant throw is a big blow, even with the Dodgers' depth. He lengthens the lineup so well with his power-and-patience combination. There's hope he can return by the NLCS or World Series, but the probability isn't great.
He was the second victim of the curse of the 100-game-winning NL West first basemen, after the Giants' Brandon Belt broke a thumb earlier in the week. At best, he'll return in the World Series, and even then, hand injuries can sap the power of hitters long after they return.
J.D. Martinez already locked up Injury of the Year when he tweaked his ankle stepping on second base -- as he ran to right field, where he played just eight games this season, in the season finale. He was left off the roster for the wild-card game because of the injury.
Rodon, the left-hander who finished the season with a 2.37 ERA and 185 strikeouts in 132⅔ innings, pitched well in his final start of the season after being out with a bum shoulder in spite of a precipitous drop in velocity. Nevertheless, White Sox general manager Rick Hahn said Monday: "We remain optimistic that he's going to be able to contribute over the course of the next month."
Brewers right-handed reliever Devin Williams won't. He said he punched a wall after a drunken celebration and broke his pitching hand. He's done for the season.
So is Dodgers left-hander Clayton Kershaw, whose recurrence of forearm tightness and elbow pain led to the team shutting him down. Among Kershaw, Dustin May and Trevor Bauer, the Dodgers will be without 60% of their anticipated Opening Day rotation.
Yankees infielder DJ LeMahieu is out of the wild-card game and division series with a sports hernia that landed him on the 10-day injured list. Rays reliever Nick Anderson, who missed most of the season with elbow issues, should return from a back injury that landed him on the IL, perhaps as soon as the division series.
Which team is hottest going into the postseason?
If the final two weeks count for anything ... it's the team with the worst record of the 10, Atlanta, which finished 88-73 atop the woeful NL East. Here are the 10 playoff teams' records over the past 14 days:
Atlanta: 11-2
Los Angeles: 10-2
San Francisco: 10-2
St. Louis: 11-3
New York: 9-3
Tampa Bay: 8-4
Chicago: 8-5
Houston: 7-6
Boston: 6-5
Milwaukee: 4-9
Did those last 14 days settle who's the AL MVP?
Didn't need those 14 days to settle it. The answer is Shohei Ohtani, it was Shohei Ohtani and it has been Shohei Ohtani for a while now. The final numbers to his historic season were remarkable.
As a hitter: .257/.372/.592, 46 home runs, 100 RBIs, 103 runs, 26 stolen bases
As a pitcher: 9-2, 3.18 ERA, 130⅓ innings, 98 hits, 44 walks, 156 strikeouts, 15 home runs allowed, .207/.286/.351 batting against
In other words, Ohtani had more total bases than all but five hitters, and in 533 plate appearances as a pitcher, he turned the average batter into Niko Goodrum. That's an MVP season.
And the NL?
This is actually much more difficult than the AL MVP ever was. It is seen as a three-man race, even if a fourth, Trea Turner, led the NL in FanGraphs WAR and was right there in Baseball-Reference WAR, too.
The reality is Philadelphia's Bryce Harper, Washington's Juan Soto and San Diego's Fernando Tatis Jr. are the tri-favorites. Each has a reasonable argument in his favor. Harper was the best offensive player of the bunch, batting .309/.429/.615 with 35 home runs and 84 RBIs. Soto played the most games and was right there with Harper offensively, hitting .313/.465/.534 with 29 home runs and 95 RBIs. Tatis was unquestionably the best per-game player, smashing 42 home runs and slashing .282/.364/.611 while playing shortstop (whereas the others are corner outfielders) and running the bases better than almost anyone in the game.
None of the three made the postseason, as Philadelphia and San Diego collapsed down the stretch. All three have flaws -- Harper's glove is seen as below average, Soto's first half was substandard and Tatis played in only 130 games.
There is no wrong answer among the three. And with ballots due before the first wild-card game Tuesday and revealed in November, it will be a fascinating look into what modern voters prioritize.
What about the NL Cy Young?
As difficult as the NL MVP is, the Cy Young might be just as tough. Let's look at four blind résumés.
Pitcher A: 11-5, 2.43 ERA, 167 innings, 12.61 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, 0.38 HR/9
Pitcher B: 16-4, 2.47 ERA, 207⅔ innings, 9.19 K/9, 2.25 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9
Pitcher C: 14-10, 2.78 ERA, 213⅓ innings, 10.42 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9
Pitcher D: 15-4, 2.46 ERA, 179⅓ innings, 11.84 K/9, 1.81 BB/9, 1.15 HR/9
Pitcher A is Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes, Pitcher B Los Angeles' Walker Buehler, Pitcher C Philadelphia's Zack Wheeler and Pitcher D Scherzer.
Tough, right? Their ERAs are all within a quarter point of one another. Wheeler and Buehler have distinct advantages in innings, but Burnes especially and Scherzer have superior rate stats.
In a season where pitching staffs were stretched thin following the shortened 2020 season, innings took on an even greater meaning than most years, which would seem to lean toward Wheeler or Buehler. And yet Burnes' strikeout-to-walk ratio and minuscule home run rate can't be ignored -- and isn't by FanGraphs, which has him atop its WAR leaderboard. On Baseball-Reference, it's Wheeler -- not just among pitchers but all players in baseball this season.
And the AL?
It's Cole vs. Toronto's Robbie Ray. Here are the blind résumés.
Pitcher A: 16-8, 3.23 ERA, 181⅓ innings, 12.06 K/9, 2.03 BB/9, 1.19 HR/9
Pitcher B: 13-7, 2.84 ERA, 193⅓ innings, 11.54 K/9, 2.47 BB/9, 1.54 HR/9
Pitcher A is Cole, Pitcher B Ray, and between the ERA and innings, Ray is the distinct favorite. This almost certainly depends on the electorate and how sabermetrically inclined it skews. Because Ray's home run rate is a big no-no, and allowing four home runs to the Yankees in his last start of the season didn't help his cause.
Who are the rookies of the year?
In the NL, it's Cincinnati's Jonathan India. He should win it unanimously.
The AL is likely Tampa Bay's Randy Arozarena, who, yes, is still technically a rookie even after hitting 10 home runs in the postseason last year. Baltimore first baseman Ryan Mountcastle fell four at-bats short of the qualifying threshold last year and came back this season with 33 home runs -- though a .309 on-base percentage may doom his candidacy, much like Adolis Garcia's .286 OBP overshadows his 31 home runs and excellent outfield glove for Texas. Houston's Luis Garcia and Tampa Bay's Shane McClanahan are under-the-radar candidates as well. Had Tampa Bay -- noticing a trend here? -- called up shortstop Wander Franco before June 22, he'd be the guy, but missing more than 2½ months of production in a year when Arozarena was solid all season long will likely doom his candidacy.
And managers?
The AL ballots are likely to include a wide swath of candidates: Cora, Houston's Dusty Baker, Chicago's Tony La Russa, Tampa Bay's Kevin Cash. But for Scott Servais to have led Seattle to the cusp of the postseason makes him the favorite.
The NL is pretty simple: Gabe Kapler took a Giants team that even the most optimistic thought would top out at 85 wins and ended up with 107. With all due respect to Milwaukee's Craig Counsell, that one's easy.
Of the non-playoff teams, who set themselves up best for 2022?
Seattle is the obvious choice. While the Mariners certainly overachieved, they did so with center fielder Kyle Lewis out for the season and future superstar right fielder Julio Rodriguez and right-handers George Kirby, Emerson Hancock and Matt Brash on the cusp of the big leagues. If they spend well this offseason -- and spend they should -- they're in a very good position to challenge the Astros, not to mention the rest of the AL.
Detroit took a big step forward in its first year under new manager A.J. Hinch and soon will see first baseman Spencer Torkelson and outfielder Riley Greene -- plus the potential addition of a big-dollar free agent this winter. Kansas City is likewise primed to improve its lot with shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., first baseman Nick Pratto and catcher/outfielder M.J. Melendez ready to join the big league team next season.
What does free agency this winter look like?
Expensive. A new collective bargaining agreement -- and even though a lockout at this point is anticipated after the current basic agreement expires Dec. 1, the prospect of losing games is not yet palpable -- tends to juice spending, and the amount of talent available is worthy of some hefty dollars being thrown around.
Here's a full primer on who's out there, but if you just want a list of names for now, fine:
Shortstops: Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, Javier Baez,
Starting pitchers: Scherzer, Ray, Kevin Gausman, Justin Verlander, Marcus Stroman, Noah Syndergaard, Kershaw, Rodon
Other hitters: Freddie Freeman, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber, Nelson Cruz, Martinez
Who will be paid the most?
Overall? It's a race between Correa and Seager, two 27-year-old shortstops coming off excellent seasons.
Per year? Even at 37, Scherzer could command $40 million-plus a season on a multiyear deal.
Who should spend the most?
The New York Mets. Steve Cohen is the richest owner in baseball, and while dollars do not equal success -- see: 2021 Mets, Angels, Padres -- they do allow a well-constructed team the leeway to make a few mistakes.
Others in a good position to shell out cash: San Francisco, Detroit, Seattle, Toronto and the Chicago Cubs, though they may be likelier to attack the 2022-23 offseason.
Uh, don't the Mets need someone running baseball operations before they spend?
Yeah. That would help. The Mets' search for a new head of baseball ops (and a new manager) is underway. They could target Milwaukee's David Stearns, though people in the game believe he's unlikely to leave. They could go after Oakland's Billy Beane, though he has a 4% ownership stake in the A's that's worth at least $50 million, so Cohen would need to handsomely compensate Beane, not to mention convince him to leave the organization he's been with for more than three decades.
And then there's Theo Epstein, architect of championships in Boston and Chicago and current free agent. He spent the year consulting for MLB and is not actively seeking a return to front offices. Cohen also could present Epstein a godfather offer that would force him to at least consider bringing another tortured fan base a championship.
Speaking of championships, which of the 10 teams this October is likeliest to back into one?
If the modern secret sauce of winning playoff baseball is a team that hits home runs, makes contact and boasts a good bullpen, the only teams that rank in the top 10 of homers, strikeout percentage and bullpen ERA are ... the Dodgers. A defending champion kind of by definition can't back into anything.
Strikeout percentage is what eliminates a number of teams. And considering where the Rays got last season, it's not exactly the most vital thing. So let's look at home runs hit, bullpen ERA and pitching strikeout rate. Those in the top 10 for all three: the Dodgers and the Yankees.
Now, let this be said: It is very possible the Yankees are done Tuesday night for the same reason the Dodgers could be done Wednesday night. But if New York survives, its power, pen and propensity to strike out hitters makes it at +1200 -- the fourth-lowest odds -- a team with a very dangerous foundation. Of the four categories discussed, here are the number in which each team ranks in the top 10:
Los Angeles: 4
New York: 3
Atlanta: 2
Boston: 2
Houston: 2
San Francisco: 2
Tampa Bay: 2
Milwaukee: 1
Chicago: 1
St. Louis: 1
Where's the best money this October?
Right now, even though they've lost Muncy and Kershaw in the past week, even though they could be out of the postseason in its first two days, Los Angeles is the World Series favorite at +375. If the Dodgers beat the Cardinals, that number could drop significantly, too.
Of the teams already in the division series, Atlanta, at +1200, is 50% higher than the next-lowest team, Milwaukee. Atlanta does have warts, yes, but its postseason rotation of Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa is a nice complement to a lineup with Freeman, Ozzie Albies and one of the year's breakout stars, Austin Riley, not to mention the outfield GM Alex Anthopoulos so deftly reconstructed at the trade deadline.
One interesting note: The 100-win Rays (+650) and 107-win Giants (+675) actually have the third- and fourth-best odds, behind the Dodgers and Astros (+475).
Here's the only question that really matters: Who's winning the whole thing?
It's as if William Hill hacked my computer or something. I've got the Dodgers over the Astros.
It's not a pick in which I'm particularly confident, not after seeing injuries thin the Dodgers' roster and watching the Astros' bullpen walk the second-most hitters in September. It's one, in fact, that very easily could be proved incorrect before the league championship series even start.
But the specter of a rematch from 2017 is simply too delicious not to consider, so with all due respect to the other eight teams, this is the year the Dodgers get their long-awaited revenge.