It was supposed to be a rebuilding year for the Boston Red Sox, but an early-season surge put them, for a time, atop the American League East. And, despite a late-summer slide and a COVID-19 outbreak, Boston managed to secure a wild-card berth on the final day of the regular season.
The Red Sox then got red-hot in October, beating the New York Yankees in the wild-card game and the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS, ultimately falling just short of the Fall Classic, losing to the Houston Astros in a hard-fought ALCS.
Whether you see this season as a surprise or a disappointment, David Schoenfield takes a look at where the Red Sox stand and answers three key questions for the club moving forward to 2022 and beyond.
Boston Red Sox
Notable free agents: Eduardo Rodriguez, Adam Ottavino, Christian Vazquez ($7 million club option), Garrett Richards ($10 million club option or $1.5 million buyout), Kyle Schwarber ($11.5 million mutual option with a $3 million buyout), Martin Perez ($6 million club option, $500,000 buyout), Jose Iglesias, Hansel Robles, Marwin Gonzalez.
The Red Sox will undoubtedly pick up Vazquez's option, although the catcher's offense fell off from 2019 and 2020. They will probably buy out Richards. He pitched well enough in relief, but struggled in 22 starts with a 5.22 ERA. Schwarber will likely decide to test free agency, coming off a much better season (.266/.374/.554, 32 home runs) than last offseason, plus the presence of J.D. Martinez and emergence of Bobby Dalbec in the second half (with Triston Casas in the minors) means the Red Sox appear set at DH and first base.
Trade candidates: Nobody obvious. Martinez is a free agent after 2022, at which time Dalbec and Casas could share DH and first-base duties.
Extension candidates: Rafael Devers doesn't hit free agency until after 2023, but they could look to lock him like they did with Xander Bogaerts.
1. Will they re-sign Rodriguez?
Rodriguez's season (13-8, 4.74 ERA) might look ho-hum on the surface, but he posted a career-high strikeout rate and a career-low walk rate. The difference was a .364 average on balls in play compared to a .312 career mark, so it appears to be some unusual bad fortune that spiked his hits allowed total.
The Boston rotation was solid but unspectacular in 2021, finishing eighth in the AL in ERA. Having Chris Sale for the entire season should be a lift, and Tanner Houck showed promise in his 13 starts, although he wasn't tasked with pitching deep into games (he topped out at 5⅓ innings and 23 batters faced). They could also move Garrett Whitlock to the rotation, where he pitched in the minors before excelling in relief as a rookie after the Red Sox stole him from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft.
Still, bringing back Rodriguez feels like a priority. A rotation with Sale, Nathan Eovaldi, Nick Pivetta, Rodriguez, Houck and Whitlock looks pretty solid, with perhaps a couple of additional veterans in the Richards/Perez mode brought in for depth.
2. Who is the closer?
Matt Barnes made the All-Star team with a dominant first half and then tailed off, with Ottavino getting some saves and then Alex Cora finally resorting to closer-by-committee the final few weeks. Overall, the Red Sox still finished fifth in the AL in both bullpen ERA (3.94) and win probability added. Still, you would like to lock down your late-game relievers. Maybe Barnes gets another shot at closing or maybe Whitlock stays in the pen. The free-agent crop of relievers is, as always, a crapshoot, with Raisel Iglesias (34 saves, 2.57 ERA with the Angels) perhaps the best of the lot, with Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy next in line among closers.
3. Will they sign a big free agent?
Chaim Bloom did a stellar job patching up the roster in 2021 with second-tier free agents. Enrique Hernandez, thanks to some excellent defensive metrics, tied Bogaerts for the team lead among position players with 4.9 WAR. Hunter Renfroe hit 31 home runs and drove in 96 runs. Ottavino, Perez and Richards each had their moments.
It will be interesting to see if Bloom approaches this offseason in the same way or if the Red Sox look to go after a premier free agent. Other than Casas, the farm system remains weak at the upper levels. Maybe re-signing Rodriguez turns out to be the big move, or maybe Max Scherzer fits on a short-term, high AAV salary that won't hamstring the long-term payroll. If Hernandez remains in center field in 2022, how about Marcus Semien to play second base? Or maybe Jarren Duran, who was overmatched in his brief major league trial (40 strikeouts, four walks), gets a chance in center with Hernandez playing second. Either way, there should be room to make a big splash in free agency without ending up in an inflexible payroll situation like they were at the end of the Dave Dombrowski era.