As the 2021 MLB season rolls past Labor Day, let's preview the stretch run with some of the key storylines to watch.
NL West race
The Dodgers and Giants just completed their final series of the season with the Giants winning two out of three to take a one-game lead into Monday's action, so there will be plenty of scoreboard watching in the NL West. Both teams entered that series at 85-49, a .634 winning percentage -- the first time since 1962 (also the Dodgers and Giants) that a September series began with both teams owning a .630 winning percentage. This is perhaps the best division race of the wild-card era. Only twice since 1995 have two teams in the same division finished with 100 wins, but both of those races were anticlimactic. In 2001, the Mariners won 116 games and the A's 102; in 2018, the Red Sox won 108 games, the Yankees 100.
This one, however, looks like it's going to be a tug of war the final four weeks. Managers Dave Roberts and Gabe Kapler are both trying to get their pitching staffs through the season and we saw bullpen games from both teams over the weekend. On paper, the Dodgers continue to have the advantage with Walker Buehler, Max Scherzer and Julio Urias leading the way. Since the beginning of August, the Dodgers are 18-2 when those three start. Kevin Gausman has been the Giants' ace in 2021, but he has a 4.68 ERA over his past nine starts while pitching more than five innings just twice in that stretch. Logan Webb has been their best starter of late. With Johnny Cueto and Alex Wood sidelined, the bullpen is going to have to pitch well while also pitching a ton of innings -- fourth most in the majors since the beginning of August.
Even though the ultimate loser has the wild card to fall back on, a division that goes down to the wire still creates the added drama of trying to win the division while also lining up your rotation with this possible slate of games to play:
Sunday, Oct. 3: Final day of regular season (Brewers at Dodgers, Padres at Giants)
Monday, Oct. 4: Potential NL West tiebreaker game
Wednesday, Oct. 6: NL wild-card game
Friday, Oct. 8: First game of division series
The Dodgers can feel comfortable lining up Buehler, Scherzer and Urias in some order for that series of games. If you don't need Buehler, for example, in the tiebreaker game or the wild-card game, fine, he's ready to go in Game 1 of the NLDS. If he has to pitch the tiebreaker, you're comfortable with Scherzer going in the wild-card game or Game 1 of the NLDS. Kapler had to like what he saw from Anthony DeSclafani in Friday's win, however, as he pitched six scoreless innings after entering that start with a 6.04 ERA since the All-Star break.
The only other division race that appears up for grabs is the NL East, which has turned back into a three-team race as the Mets, seemingly dead after a horrid August, have won seven of nine, including going 5-2 since the infamous "thumbs down" affair to climb back in it. Unfortunately, the three teams don't have many games left against each other, so the scoreboard watching will be intense here as well. The Mets have one series against the Braves and Phillies and the Braves also have just one series against the Phillies -- they end the regular season at home against the Phillies and Mets.
What about the Padres?
The second NL wild card up for grabs among the Padres, Reds, Cardinals and maybe even one of the NL East teams -- and the Padres are in deep, deep trouble. They actually led the division on May 30, but they've played under .500 in the second half. Now comes the painful truth: They are done with the Diamondbacks and Rockies after going just 19-19 against them. The remaining schedule: two games against the Angels; a difficult road trip against the Dodgers, Giants and Cardinals; a homestand against the Giants and Braves; then a season-ending road trip to L.A. and San Francisco. Via FanGraphs, the Padres' playoff odds at the start of each month:
April 1: 92.3%
May 1: 96.0%
June 1: 96.1%
July 1: 96.7%
Aug. 1: 76.8%
Sept. 1: 26.2%
Given that schedule and the issues with the rotation (such as Yu Darvish's struggles and the number of bullpen games they've had to deploy), 1-in-4 odds even feels a little high. Given the high expectations back in April, no team faces as much pressure down the stretch as the Padres.
In the AL, it's now a five-way battle for two wild-card spots with the Yankees, Red Sox, A's, Mariners and Blue Jays (who just swept the A's over the weekend) fighting it out. So, yes, the dream of a five-way tie for the two wild-card spots lives! Make it happen, beloved baseball gods. The Mariners are the surprise here, trying to end the majors' longest playoff drought (since 2001) and doing so with a negative run differential.
Can the Rays finish with the best overall record?
For most of the season, it appeared as if the NL West champion would finish with the majors' best record and be in line for home-field advantage in the World Series (if they got there). Then the Rays closed August with 13 wins in 14 games (OK, seven of those came against the Orioles, but those do count) to make it a three-team race, with the Brewers lurking.
This Rays team is a little different from the one that made the playoffs the past two seasons. The 2019 team ranked seventh in the American League in runs scored and the 2020 team ranked sixth. This year, the Rays lead in runs scored -- something no Rays team has ever done (the franchise best was third in 2010). They are doing it in a unique fashion, without having a truly elite hitter in the lineup. Nelson Cruz ranks 40th in the majors in OPS and he leads the team, although he's been with the Rays only since the trade deadline. Next up is Brandon Lowe at 43rd overall and then Randy Arozarena at 50th.
In fact, the offensive success is even more unlikely when considering the Rays are ninth in the AL in batting average, sixth in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging percentage. Those numbers all go up with runners on base, however, and they lead the AL in home runs with runners on. By WAR, their top position player is Arozarena, at No. 38 in the majors. As usual, the run prevention has been excellent, but even then it has been a collective effort; by WAR, their top pitcher is reliever Andrew Kittredge, No. 55 overall.
Of course, the Rays do have an emerging star in Wander Franco, who has reached base in 36 consecutive games, the third-longest ever for a player 20 years old or younger. He has hit .352/.414/.552 with 26 RBIs and 36 runs over those 36 games and added four hits on Monday. Maybe he is the Rays' best hitter.
Anyway, this isn't how you usually draw up a 100-win team, but the Rays have a chance to get there for the first time in franchise history.
What impact will COVID make?
COVID-19 continues to subtly influence the season, and the last thing a team chasing the playoffs needs is its star slugger or ace pitcher to miss 10 days with the virus. The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported last week that four playoff contenders (Red Sox, Phillies, Mets, Mariners) are reportedly among seven teams that have not reached 85% vaccination rate of Tier 1 personnel (players, coaches and other staff members who interact with players).
The Red Sox, in particular, have suffered a teamwide outbreak in the past week or so. Xander Bogaerts had to be pulled in the middle of a game last week and joined seven other players on the COVID-IL, a list that has since grown to include Nick Pivetta and Danny Santana. Pivetta was scheduled to start Sunday, but the Red Sox instead had to call up Kutter Crawford to make his major league debut. Crawford allowed five runs in two innings in a loss to Cleveland.
Heading into this past weekend, here are the five teams with the most days lost to players on the COVID-19 IL, via ESPN Stats & Info research:
Phillies, 185
Nationals, 179
Yankees, 144
Brewers, 105
Diamondbacks, 90
The Red Sox have now had the second-most players land on the COVID-19 IL with 17, two behind the Phillies' 19.
While the Mets are reportedly below that 85% vaccination rate, they've lost just one player day to the IL. Other playoff contenders who have so far done well here: Dodgers (20 days), Rays (19), Braves (10), A's (7), White Sox (6), Cardinals (4) and Reds (3).
Corbin Burnes chases history
The Brewers' right-hander leads the National League in strikeouts per nine innings (12.25), fewest walks per nine (1.75) and fewest home runs per nine (0.31). Call it the sabermetric pitching Triple Crown. No modern pitcher has done it. In fact, only Walter Johnson in 1913 led his league in both SO/9 and BB/9. Despite his historic performance, Burnes probably isn't the NL Cy Young front-runner. That's Buehler, who has a lower ERA despite the Giants roughing him on Sunday for six runs (2.31 to 2.38), a better win-loss record and, most importantly in the eyes of Cy Young voters, has pitched 35 more innings. But it's close enough that it could flip in these final weeks, especially if Buehler throws another clunker.
Five other players chasing statistical milestones:
-- Gerrit Cole has a chance to lead the AL in the traditional pitching Triple Crown -- wins, ERA and strikeouts. He has a two-win lead over Hyun-Jin Ryu and the injured Chris Bassitt, and he is battling Robbie Ray for the ERA and strikeout titles. Shane Bieber did it last year in the shortened season, but before that, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw last did it in 2011.
-- Shohei Ohtani leads the majors with 43 home runs and looks like he will break Troy Glaus' franchise record of 47. He also has a shot at reaching 50, which only four other players have reached in the past decade (Chris Davis, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Pete Alonso). Oh, and he's 9-1 with a 2.97 ERA in his other job.
-- Royals catcher Salvador Perez is hot on Ohtani's heels, however, with 41 home runs and leads the majors with 20 since the All-Star break. Perez has a chance to break Johnny Bench's record of 45 home runs by a player who is primarily a catcher. The record for most home runs while actually playing catcher is Javy Lopez's 42 with the Braves in 2003. Perez has 27 home runs while catching, so he won't beat Lopez's mark.
-- Jose Abreu leads the AL with 103 RBIs as he goes for his third straight RBI title. The last player to lead his league three straight seasons was Cecil Fielder from 1990 to 1992.
-- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will likely fall short of Ohtani in the MVP vote, but he has a chance to do something his pops never did: win a batting title. He and Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel of the Astros were the only three AL players who began Monday hitting above .310. The NL leaders weren't much higher with Nicholas Castellanos at .321 and Trea Turner at .319, so these aren't exactly batting races for the ages. The last batting champ with an average under .320 was Justin Morneau of the Rockies in 2014 at .319 and the last in the AL was Rod Carew in 1972 at .318. It could happen in both leagues this year.
Ten big series to watch
Sept. 10-12: Reds at Cardinals; Sept. 17-19: Padres at Cardinals
The Cardinals had been a nonfactor in the playoff race since the middle of June, but with the Padres' slump and the Reds unable to take full advantage of that slump, the Cardinals now have a shot to steal that second wild card. They have one series each to make up ground and then close with 14 games against the Brewers and Cubs.
Sept. 13-15: Red Sox at Mariners
The surprising Mariners are a long shot to chase down the Red Sox for the second wild card -- while also holding off the A's and Blue Jays -- but they do have a golden opportunity to make up ground when Boston heads to Seattle for a three-game series. The Mariners are in the middle of a series against the Astros, but this is the last series against Houston before the schedule tilts in their favor the rest of the way: Arizona, Boston, at Kansas City, at Oakland, at Anaheim, and then finishing up at home against the A's and Angels. Dare to dream, Mariners fans!
Sept. 20-22: Blue Jays at Rays
The Blue Jays are done with Boston, so no head-to-head matchups to gain ground there. The good news: They do have seven games left against the Orioles. The bad news: They have six against the Rays, including one on the road. The Jays finish at home against the Yankees and Orioles. The Jays have been playing catch-up all season, but the rotation has the best ERA in the AL since the beginning of August.
Sept. 24-26: Yankees at Red Sox
The Red Sox lead the season series 10-6, but the Yankees swept the August series at Yankee Stadium and you know the Yankees would rather face the A's or Mariners in a wild-card game than, say, Chris Sale. Boston has held the Yankees to 3.4 runs per game in the first 16 meetings.
Sept. 17-19: Phillies at Mets
This finishes off a tough nine-game homestand for the Mets against the Yankees, Cardinals and Phillies before finishing the season with eight of their final 12 on the road.
Sept. 28-30: Phillies at Braves
The only remaining series between the clubs, the Phillies lead the season series 9-7. The Braves have handled Bryce Harper so far, as he's hit .228 in the first 16 games with three RBIs, all on solo home runs. Freddie Freeman, meanwhile, has killed the Phillies with seven home runs and 14 RBIs.
Oct. 1-3: Mets at Braves
Will the Mets still be alive?
Oct. 1-3: Brewers at Dodgers; Padres at Giants
If it comes down to the final weekend, both the Dodgers and Giants finish at home. Since the National League division series doesn't start until Oct. 8, the Dodgers should still see at least a couple of the Brewers' top starters, plus the Brewers might still have a shot at home-field advantage. In other words, that might be a typical season-ending series where a division winner is resting everyone to get ready for the postseason. The advantage here might go to the Giants, especially if a dispirited Padres team has been eliminated.