The 2021 trade deadline was more active and robust than normal, with 10 2021 All-Stars traded, including some of the best players in the sport in Max Scherzer, Trea Turner, Nelson Cruz and Kris Bryant. The non-All-Stars traded featured prominent players such as Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Jose Berrios and Starling Marte.
The trades have impacted the playoff races, especially with the Yankees, where the team's fortunes immediately turned in a positive direction after adding Joey Gallo and Rizzo to the lineup. With Clayton Kershaw still sidelined and Trevor Bauer on administrative leave, the Dodgers have needed Scherzer to help chase down the Giants, and they have won all six of his starts. Some of the smaller trades have paid big dividends as well. JT Chargois has allowed one run for the Rays and won four games in relief.
Let's check in with all the playoff contenders and grade how their trade deadline maneuverings have worked out so far (while noting that we obviously don't yet know the long-term implications of the prospects traded away):
Acquisitions will be listed with FanGraphs WAR since their trade in parentheses. All playoff percentages from FanGraphs. National League contenders entries by David Schoenfield; American League by Bradford Doolittle.
NATIONAL LEAGUE CONTENDERS
Playoff odds: Aug. 1: 15.2%; Sept. 5: 70.8%
Acquisitions: OF Adam Duvall (0.8), OF Jorge Soler (0.4), OF Joc Pederson (0.4), OF Eddie Rosario (0.1), P Richard Rodriguez (0.0)
With an 18-8 record in August and the simultaneous collapse of the Mets (9-19), no team improved their odds of making the postseason as much as Atlanta. After the Braves retooled their outfield, Soler and Duvall combined for 15 home runs and 34 RBIs in August as the team climbed from four games back to a 2.5-game lead entering September. Duvall is pretty much a one-trick pony at the plate with his power, but Soler is providing power and getting on base, making up for any defensive shortcomings he has in right field.
Rosario was on the injured list when acquired and just recently returned. Look for him to platoon some with Duvall in left field, with Pederson platooning in center with Guillermo Heredia, giving Brian Snitker flexibility and a strong bench. Soler feels like the key, helping to set the table in the No. 2 slot in the order ahead of Freddie Freeman and Austin Riley. Rodriguez, meanwhile, has been a workhouse in the bullpen, appearing in 13 games in August with five holds.
Grade so far: A
Playoff odds: Aug. 1: 22.0%; Sept. 5: 30.4%
Acquisitions: P Kyle Gibson (0.7), SS Freddy Galvis (0.0), P Ian Kennedy (-0.4)
The Phillies went 17-11 in August, with the acquisition of Gibson and the move of Ranger Suarez from the bullpen to the rotation paying big dividends. Gibson had a 3.18 ERA in August with just two home runs allowed in 37 innings, and the Phillies won four of his six outings. The Phillies also won four of Suarez's six starts as he posted a 2.03 ERA with no home runs over 26.2 innings.
Kennedy took over as closer and was 5-for-6 in save chances in August, but he did cough up four home runs. Two of those came in non-save appearances in games the Phillies won (and ultimately weren't harmful), but he has allowed nine home runs on the season in under 45 innings, not exactly the dominance you want from a closer. Galvis was out with a quad injury until Aug. 25, but with Rhys Hoskins now out for the season, he should see regular action down the stretch.
Grade so far: B
Playoff odds: Aug. 1: 67.5%; Sept. 5: 10.5%
Acquisitions: SS/2B Javier Baez (0.4), P Trevor Williams (0.3), P Rich Hill (0.3)
The Mets saw their playoff odds drop an astounding 57 percentage points in one month after beginning August with a four-game lead in the division. They lost all three games in Philadelphia early in the month and then went 2-11 in home-and-home series against the Dodgers and Giants. As if things weren't bad enough, Baez and Francisco Lindor and a couple other players thought it would be clever to give a thumbs down gesture to the fans. Yes, it was one of the worst months in Mets history.
Baez has been exactly what you would have expected: power, good defense, low average, low OBP. The Mets' offensive woes go far beyond Baez, so he's hardly the only one to blame, but he's not really an impact hitter. The Mets have won both of Williams' starts, although he went just 4.1 innings in both outings. Hill has been a back-end starter as projected. In retrospect, the Mets needed to swing bigger -- Kris Bryant or Joey Gallo to provide another power bat, or even another starting pitcher given Jacob deGrom's injury issues at the time. Realistically, the Mets probably lacked the prospect depth to make more than one big trade anyway, and Baez and Williams cost them 2020 first-round pick Pete Crow-Armstrong, a steep price for a rental and nondescript starter.
Grade so far: D
Playoffs odds: Aug. 1: 96.1%; Sept. 5: 100%
Acquisitions: 3B Eduardo Escobar (0.3), P John Curtiss (-0.3), P Daniel Norris (-0.3)
Milwaukee's big trade came back in May, when they acquired shortstop Willy Adames, who not only shored up the team's defensive issues at shortstop, where Luis Urias had struggled, but has been the team's best hitter. Rowdy Tellez, acquired in mid-July, has also contributed in a part-time role at first base. They had a big lead at the end of July and extended that in August. The concern now is simply getting Freddy Peralta healthy for the postseason and keeping all the pitchers sharp without overworking them.
The deadline acquisitions have made a minimal impact. Urias has swung the bat well enough that Escobar may continue to rotate between third base and first base, as he was doing before a stint on the IL with a hamstring injury. Norris has had problems throwing strikes and Curtiss pitched poorly and then went down with a torn UCL in his elbow. Luckily, the bullpen continues to get good work from journeyman relievers Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland, so the depth has held up behind Josh Hader, Devin Williams and Brent Suter (12 wins in relief!). Rookie Aaron Ashby could also turn into a bullpen weapon in the postseason.
Grade so far: C- (not including the Adames and Tellez trades)
Playoff odds: Aug. 1: 22.7%; Sept. 5: 45.9%
Acquisitions: P Mychal Givens (0.1), P Luis Cessa (0.2), P Justin Wilson (0.0)
How important is a good bullpen? Of the 13 worst bullpen ERAs through Sept. 5, only the Phillies (21st) and Reds (28th) are in the playoff chase. The Reds had struggled all season in late-game relief, with Heath Hembree, Amir Garrett and Lucas Sims all saving at least seven games, with Sims' 5.35 ERA the best of the trio. GM Nick Krall made the obvious additions in bullpen help, although he missed out on the big get of the deadline in Craig Kimbrel (hard to top the White Sox's offer of a good young regular in Nick Madrigal to acquire Kimbrel).
The bullpen was a little better in August with its best monthly ERA of the season -- but that was still just 4.44, hardly championship quality. The underlying results are better, however, as the three newcomers have taken over most of the late-game high-leverage innings and have gone a combined 1-1 with a 3.16 ERA over 34.2 innings (through Sept. 5). Along with the return of Michael Lorenzen, who has shared closer duties with Givens, the Reds now have four relievers pitching well. They went 16-10 in July and 16-12 in August, and a soft schedule the rest of the way -- nine games against the Pirates -- helps the Reds' playoff odds as well.
Grade so far: A
Playoff odds: Aug. 1: 3.1%; Sept. 5: 4.9%
Acquisitions: Acquired P Jon Lester (0.2), P J.A. Happ (0.0)
The Cardinals were scuffling along at 51-51 on July 30, their streak of consecutive winning seasons (13) in jeopardy. They were 9.5 games behind the Brewers in the NL Central and 7.5 behind the Padres for the second wild card. With their playoff odds hovering around 3%, John Mozeliak understandably made a half-hearted attempt at improving, trading for the two veteran lefty starters -- questionable additions at that, given Happ had a 6.77 ERA with the Twins and Lester a 5.02 ERA with the Nationals.
Happ promptly went 3-0 with a 2.22 ERA in his first five starts before getting bombed on Wednesday, allowing seven runs in one inning. Lester went 2-1 with a 5.12 ERA in six starts in August. It has been enough, when combined with the Padres' stumbles, to get the Cardinals a little closer in the wild-card race. The September schedule is rough, however, with 10 games against the Brewers, plus series against the Dodgers, Padres and Mets (they do get seven games against the Cubs). They seem hopeful that Jack Flaherty will return soon from shoulder tightness, so if the Cardinals somehow make a run at the Reds and Padres, it is more likely to be Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Miles Mikolas leading the way rather than Happ and Lester.
Grade so far: C
Playoff odds: Aug. 1: 97.3%; Sept. 5: 100%
Acquisitions: 3B/OF Kris Bryant (0.8), P Tony Watson (0.4)
The Giants actually had a terrific August, going 19-9 and at one point stretching their lead over the Dodgers to five games. Alas, that wasn't good enough as a four-game losing stretch at the end of the month and into September saw the Dodgers move into first place for the first time since April 25. Then the Giants moved back into first after taking two of three against the Dodgers in this past weekend's big showdown -- the final series between the two clubs.
Bryant has been a terrific addition, hitting .269/.336/.509 with six home runs in his first 29 games with the team (through Sept. 5), while starting games at third base, left field, right field and even once in center. Watson has been solid, going 2-1 with a 2.92 ERA in relief. The question is whether Farhan Zaidi should have acquired a starting pitcher as well to provide support for a rotation that had been effective, but lacked depth. With Johnny Cueto back on the IL for the third time this season with an elbow strain and Alex Wood on the COVID-19 IL, the Giants will have to rely heavily on the bullpen in the interim.
Grade so far: B
Playoff odds: Aug. 1: 99.4%; Sept. 5: 100%
Acquisitions:, P Max Scherzer (1.6), SS/2B Trea Turner (1.1), P Danny Duffy (IL)
When you can add two of the best players in the game, you do it, no matter the prospect cost. With Clayton Kershaw still injured and Trevor Bauer on administrative leave and unlikely to pitch again for the Dodgers, Andrew Friedman made the biggest splash at the deadline in picking up Scherzer -- oh, with Turner thrown in for good measure (even better, he's under control for another season).
Scherzer has crushed since the trade, going 4-0 in six starts with a 1.29 ERA and a 50-5 strikeout-walk ratio over 35 innings. Scherzer did leave his Wednesday start with hamstring tightness after 76 pitches, but he said after the game he wasn't concerned about missing his next start. Turner has provided a spark at the top of the lineup, hitting .319 with 18 runs in his first 24 games. Duffy remains on the IL and has yet to pitch for the Dodgers. Even though the Dodgers were in second place on deadline day, they were probably the World Series favorite -- although they desperately need to overtake the Giants and avoid that wild-card game. Scherzer and Turner make first place in the NL a more likely scenario -- and even more dangerous in October.
Grade so far: A+
Playoff odds:
Aug. 1: 76.8%; Sept. 5: 37.5%
Acquisitions: Acquired P Daniel Hudson (0.1), OF Jake Marisnick (-0.3)
It was a tough deadline for A.J. Preller. It appeared the Padres were going to get Scherzer, only to see the Dodgers swoop in late and land the three-time Cy Young winner. A rotation that had already been struggling -- a 4.41 ERA in June, a 5.97 ERA in July -- received no help. Then came the bad luck. Chris Paddack landed on the IL the day after the trade deadline. Yu Darvish landed on the IL in mid-August with lower back tightness and the team was so desperate for starters, it signed Jake Arrieta, whom the Cubs had released. He made one bad start and injured a hamstring. Even Hudson missed his first 10 days with the Padres while on the COVID-19 IL.
The Padres have been forced to go to bullpen games, and as a result, their starters pitched the fewest innings of any team in the majors in August -- and went 5-10 with a 4.56 ERA. Darvish missed a couple of weeks and has allowed 10 runs in 8.2 innings in two starts since his return (and has a 7.57 ERA since the beginning of July). The newcomers haven't helped yet, as Hudson has pitched just 7.2 innings in 11 appearances with an ERA over 7.00. Marisnick has hit .125 in limited duty. A season that began with so much promise and excitement is now spiraling downward, and the Padres might miss the postseason.
Grade so far: F
AMERICAN LEAGUE CONTENDERS
Postseason odds: Aug. 1: 84%; Sept. 5: 84.4%
Acquisitions: Kyle Schwarber (0.9), Austin Davis (0.1), Hansel Robles (0.0)
The Red Sox lost a lot of ground in the race for the AL East title in August, but they did recover enough from a slump to position themselves well for a wild-card chase down the stretch. That outcome was certainly bolstered by the performance of Schwarber, once he came off the IL. Schwarber hasn't played much at first base, where he seemed to fit best in the Boston lineup, but most of that is because Bobby Dalbec caught fire. Instead, Schwarber has mostly played in left field and at DH, and he has put up Ted Williams-like percentages in that capacity. Alas, neither Davis nor Robles have contributed much to a pitching staff that really needed them for added depth.
Grade so far: B-
Postseason odds: Aug. 1: 100%; Sept. 5: 100%
Acquisitions: Ryan Tepera (0.4), Cesar Hernandez (-0.2), Craig Kimbrel (-0.1)
For the White Sox, the real grade for their in-season work is going to be incomplete. They were shoo-ins to win the AL Central before the trade deadline and that has not changed. The grade will truly be determined in October. That stated, the early returns are concerning, to say the least. While Tepera has been terrific, it's not a good sign when his fWAR is the only positive result among Chicago's in-season pickups, especially when he was meant to be the third wheel in that bunch. Kimbrel has been plagued by longball-itis as he struggles to adapt to his new role. And the power breakout Hernandez displayed in Cleveland has devolved into a sub-.300 slugging percentage in Chicago, and he has also been error-prone in the field. Again, the regular-season stakes were low in this case, so no harm, no foul. If Kimbrel and Hernandez help fuel a postseason run, then this grade turns into something a lot more generous.
Grade so far: D+
Postseason odds: Aug. 1: 97%; Sept. 5: 96.8%
Acquisitions: Yimi Garcia (0.3), Rafael Montero (0.1), Kendall Graveman (0.1), Phil Maton (0.1)
The Astros have held a steady course since the deadline. Thus far, they haven't been bitten by the trade of center fielder Myles Straw, though they haven't gotten much from Maton, the player for whom Straw was traded. But the effort to improve the depth of the bullpen has been a mixed bag. Graveman in particular was supposed to add a high-quality leverage option to take some pressure off Ryan Pressly. However, all these additional arms have accomplished thus far is to lengthen the list of pieces Dusty Baker has to sort out before October. Beyond Pressly and, possibly, Cristian Javier, there is not a lot of clarity in that group at the moment.
Grade so far: C-
Postseason odds: Aug. 1: 54%; Sept. 5: 86.3%
Acquisitions: Clay Holmes (0.7), Anthony Rizzo (0.3), Joely Rodriguez (0.2), Joey Gallo (0.1), Rougned Odor (0.9 since April), Andrew Heaney (-0.3)
The Yankees were one of baseball's hottest teams in August, so obviously some things went right. Some of the acquisitions helped, too. Overall, though, it's been more a matter of the foundational pieces of the New York roster getting healthy and living up to expectations. Holmes has been the best of the pickups with a lights-out showing in the Yankees' bullpen. Gallo has been more all-or-nothing than ever. Rizzo has had some great moments but is still shy of his career percentages. And Odor, an early-season pickup, continues to play too much. Meanwhile, Heaney, who figured to be an awkward fit at Yankee Stadium, gave up as many homers (10) in his first 28 innings for New York than fellow lefty Whitey Ford gave up in 244 2/3 innings for New York in 1965.
Grade so far: C+
Postseason odds: Aug. 1: 45%; Sept. 5: 7.1%
Acquisitions: Starling Marte (1.6), Josh Harrison (0.6), Andrew Chafin (0.4), Yan Gomes (0.0)
All of Oakland's pickups have contributed in a positive fashion. Marte may be the MVP among all players traded since the start of the season. He and Harrison have helped turn the formerly plodding A's into a bunch more reminiscent of the Rickey Henderson-Dwayne Murphy A's. And yet the A's have lost ground in their playoff push, largely because of a starting rotation that stopped holding up their end of the bargain. That's one area the A's didn't address at the deadline, so that's what tamps down their grade.
Grade so far: B-
Postseason odds: Aug. 1: 2%; Sept. 5: 7.3%
Acquisitions: Abraham Toro (1.1), Tyler Anderson (0.9), Joe Smith (0.2), Jake Bauers (0.0), Diego Castillo (-0.4)
Toro and Anderson weren't headline-grabbing pickups in July, but the Mariners would not be hovering around contention without them. Toro in particular has been a revelation, both for his overall production and his flair for the dramatic. Smith has helped, as well, lengthening an already-deep bullpen for Scott Servais. The one bummer here is Castillo, whose acquisition was supposed to fill the void opened up by the dealing of closer Kendall Graveman to Houston. That deal brought back Toro, so it's hard to second guess the move at this point. However, Castillo was just so-so over his first few outings for Seattle and then ended up on the IL with shoulder inflammation. If he returns soon and helps get Seattle over the hump in its long-shot playoff bid, this grade could become an A+.
Grade so far: B
Postseason odds: Aug. 1: 83%; Sept. 5: 100%
Acquisitions: Drew Rasmussen (0.9), DJ Johnson (0.1), JT Chargois (0.1), J.P. Feyereisen (0.0), Shawn Armstrong (-0.1), Jordan Luplow (-0.1), Nelson Cruz (-0.2)
The Rays have been wheeling and dealing all season, as is their wont. Rasmussen was an early-season pickup along with Feyereisen in the deal that sent Willy Adames off to have a career season in Milwaukee. Rasmussen pitched well in a flexible role for the Rays, and let's not forget that the dealing of Adames opened up the lineup spot now occupied by Wander Franco. Overall, though, Tampa Bay has gotten limited returns from their acquisitions. That falls squarely on the shoulders of veteran slugger Nelson Cruz, who has not produced consistently as Tampa Bay's everyday DH. So far, anyway. Nevertheless, you can't hammer on the Rays too much. After all, they ended August with a hammerlock on the tough AL East and are in great position to land the junior circuit's top seed in the October bracket.
Grade so far: C+
Postseason odds:Aug. 1: 35%; Sept. 5: 18.2%
Acquisitions: Jose Berrios (0.9), Adam Cimber (0.5), Corey Dickerson (0.2), Trevor Richards (0.0), Brad Hand (0.0), Joakim Soria (-0.1)
It looked good on paper. The Blue Jays needed pitching. They traded for pitching. Proven guys, too, in Berrios, Cimber, Richards and Hand. It just hasn't worked out, and because of that, Toronto has continued to underperform relative to its run differential and gradually slide to the very brink of the playoff probability cliff. Berrios has been OK, mixing a few nice outings with some clunkers, all while giving Toronto fewer innings than they need from him. Cimber has been terrific, but his success has only lessened the impact of Hand's flop. Hand gave up 10 runs in 8 2/3 innings and offered so little evidence that he might turn things around that the Blue Jays designated him for assignment at the end of the month.
Grade so far: D