David Schoenfield hands out grades as the Toronto Blue Jays acquire RHP Jose Berrios from the Minnesota Twins for IF/OF Austin Martin and RHP Simeon Woods Richardson.
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Toronto Blue Jays: B-
It's been a frustrating season for the Blue Jays. You know the front office is looking at that plus-97 run differential and wondering why they're just three games over .500, 9½ games behind the Red Sox in the AL East and 4½ games behind the A's for the second wild card (with the Mariners and Yankees also ahead of them). Their numbers against the Red Sox are a good summation of what's happened: They've outscored Boston 87-67, but the Red Sox lead the season series 9-6.
Still, that run differential, spearheaded by one of the best offenses in the majors, is why the Blue Jays feel they can make a late run at the wild card -- and Berrios is the perfect fit since he's in the midst of the best season of his career and, most importantly, is under team control for another season. Unlike a lot of teams, the Jays have actually had a pretty stable rotation, with Hyun Jin Ryu, Robbie Ray, Steven Matz and Ross Stripling all making at least 16 starts.
That group has been pretty solid, and the Jays rank sixth in the AL in rotation ERA at 3.97 -- a mark that is actually better than the Red Sox's 4.51 and is on par with the Rays' 3.90. What the Blue Jays can really dream on, however, is building a potential powerhouse rotation for 2021 with Berrios, Ryu, Alek Manoah (2.90 ERA through his first eight career starts) and Nate Pearson, the highly touted youngster who has had problems staying healthy in 2021. Ray, Matz and Stripling are all free agents.
So why not a higher grade? The Blue Jays paid what feels like a steep price with two top prospects, especially if they fall short of the wild card. FanGraphs pegged their wild-card odds at 23.4% before the Berrios trade and he improves that, but Toronto is still looking at under 1-in-3 odds of making the postseason. You never fault a team for making a big move to go for it, and the Blue Jays have done an excellent job of building up their system to make this trade, but there is a chance they traded away a lot of future value in Martin and Woods Richardson.
Minnesota Twins: B+
Martin was the fifth pick in the 2020 draft after starring at Vanderbilt, and some draft experts believed he was the best talent in the draft, as an athlete with a strong hit tool, speed and versatility in the field. He started his pro career this year in Double-A, hitting .281/.424/.383 with two home runs while splitting his time between shortstop and center field. He was Kiley McDaniel's No. 38 prospect entering the season and should move up that list when McDaniel unveils his midseason top 50 next week. Center field is probably his future, as his arm may not play at shortstop, making him the potential replacement for Byron Buxton if Buxton departs as a free agent after 2022.
The Mets drafted Woods Richardson in the second round in 2018 out of a Texas high school, and he quickly established himself as a strong prospect with a good performance in Class A in 2019 -- a season in which the Mets traded him to the Blue Jays in the Marcus Stroman deal. He has a 5.76 ERA in Double-A this season, although he has struck out 67 in 45⅓ innings, and is currently in Japan with the Olympic team. His control, a strength in 2019, has wavered in 2021, as he's averaged 5.2 walks per nine. He was No. 90 in McDaniel's preseason top 100, so the Twins got the two top-100 prospects they were seeking.
So why not a higher grade? First, you can argue that the Twins shouldn't be trading Berrios in the first place. Yes, it's been a disappointing season, but they didn't necessarily have to punt on 2022, and trading away Berrios seems to confirm that 2022 will be a transition year of sorts. Second, while Martin and Woods Richardson are good prospects, both have some things to prove. Martin hasn't hit for much power, relying on an inside-out swing and producing more like a singles hitter than a fifth overall pick. His contact skills have been solid (21%), so he still projects to hit for average, and Double-A was an aggressive promotion, but let's see if the power comes. Woods Richardson has hardly dominated Double-A, although we should note that since he was 17 when he was drafted, he doesn't turn 21 until September. Still, there is a good chance the Twins end up with two regulars in a couple of years.