In a trade deadline that promised to be more hectic and unpredictable than usual, the returns so far have exceeded expectations with a flurry of bonkers deals as we head into the final day of activity. We've already seen six 2021 All-Stars traded, and the biggest deal -- which was being finalized Thursday night -- saw three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer and shortstop Trea Turner going from the Nationals to the Dodgers.
Other All-Stars dealt include Nelson Cruz to the Rays, Joey Gallo to the Yankees, Adam Frazier to the Padres, Kyle Schwarber to the Red Sox and Eduardo Escobar to the Brewers. The Cubs traded longtime first baseman Anthony Rizzo to the Yankees, a trade that left Rizzo taking some final photos at Wrigley Field after Thursday's game. Two quality closers moved on as well on Thursday -- Brad Hand from the Nationals to the Blue Jays and Diego Castillo from the Rays to the Mariners. Teams that have made deals have indicated they might not be done yet, and teams that haven't made deals are itching to do something.
Who might be next? Let's check in on the big storylines as we count down to Friday's 4 p.m. ET deadline. And remember, the August waiver trade period no longer exists -- such as when the Astros acquired Justin Verlander in 2017. This is a true trade deadline.
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Grades for every MLB trade deadline deal (ESPN+)
How will the Padres and Giants react to the Scherzer/Turner trade?
The Dodgers' acquisition was a coup in two regards. First, they added two of the best players in the game as they look to defend their title. With Trevor Bauer perhaps unavailable for the rest of the season and Clayton Kershaw still sidelined, they needed rotation reinforcements. The offense -- with Mookie Betts and Corey Seager injured and 2019 MVP Cody Bellinger hitting .160 -- has been inconsistent of late, as evidenced by 2-1 and 5-0 losses to the Giants in the just-completed series that dropped the Dodgers three back in the division race. They can't afford to fall further behind.
Secondly, the Dodgers kept Scherzer away from their NL West rivals. Indeed, reports earlier Thursday indicated Scherzer was headed to San Diego. Don't expect A.J. Preller to give up on his pursuit of a starting pitcher, however. The San Diego rotation has struggled of late, ranking 25th in the majors in ERA in July after ranking eighth through the end of June. Blake Snell and Chris Paddack both have season ERAs over 5.00, and even Yu Darvish has a 5.00 ERA over his past 10 starts.
It seems unlikely Preller will stop at just the Frazier trade, given his rush of six deals last year in the days leading up to the trade deadline, including four on the final day. On the other hand, the playoff structure was different last season, with each team guaranteed at least a best-of-three series in the first round. Will Preller be as aggressive knowing the Padres have ground to make up to pass both the Dodgers and Giants?
The Giants, meanwhile, have yet to make a major trade. They've been remarkably consistent all season: 16-10 in April, 18-10 in May, 16-9 in June and 14-9 in July. Everyone keeps waiting for them to stumble, but they've shown no signs yet of heading in that direction. Certainly, they might look to add a starting pitcher, although Johnny Cueto has the worst ERA of the five starters at 3.84 and just pitched 5 2/3 scoreless innings Thursday. You can never have too much rotation depth, though. Let's see if president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi instead addresses the bullpen, which ranks third in the majors with a 3.30 ERA, albeit without the peripheral numbers to match that excellence, most notably a 22.9% strikeout rate that ranks 25th in the majors. The weakest position has been second base, where Donovan Solano is hitting .264/.323/.351 -- hardly a black hole, plus Frazier and Cesar Hernandez (to the White Sox) are two second baseman who have already changed teams.
Will the Twins trade Jose Berrios?
Berrios is the strong No. 2 option to Scherzer -- arguably more desirable because he's under team control through 2022 and is having his best season, with career-best totals in strikeout rate, walk rate, ground ball rate and batting average allowed. Berrios has made it clear to the Twins that he wants to test free agency after next season, so extension talks are dead and trade discussions intensified in recent days. Indeed, given the additional year of service, the Twins are reportedly seeking two top-100 prospects in return. They might have even played it smart, waiting for Scherzer to go first and playing off the increased desire of the other NL West teams to bring in their own starter.
Preller loves trading for players who aren't rentals; Mike Clevinger last year and Frazier this year are prime examples, not to mention offseason acquisitions Darvish, Snell and Musgrove, who are all under team control past 2021. Preller emptied a lot of his farm system depth over the past year, however, so you wonder if he will be willing to give up at least one of his four top-100 prospects (CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell, Luis Campusano) if that's what it takes.
Berrios is also a fit for the Giants as Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood are all pending free agents and Cueto's $22 million club option is pretty steep. Berrios would help this year and provide a rotation anchor for 2022.
The Blue Jays and Rays are strong possibilities as well, given Berrios' value for 2022 and that both teams have strong farm systems.
Note that five of the past eight World Series winners made a significant addition to their rotation at the trade deadline:
2018 Red Sox: Nathan Eovaldi
2017 Astros: Justin Verlander
2015 Royals: Johnny Cueto
2014 Giants: Jake Peavy
2013 Red Sox: Jake Peavy
Which Cubs are next to go?
After two years of Kris Bryant trade speculation, who would have guessed that Rizzo instead was the first to go? Bryant-to-the-Mets has been a rumor for a while now, and that could expand to include starter Zach Davies, helping the Mets fill two needs. Taijuan Walker just had a third straight poor start Thursday, seeing his ERA rise from 2.40 to 3.71, and making the Mets' rotation needs even more acute, especially with Jacob deGrom still out.
Craig Kimbrel is back at the top of his game after two rough seasons and a hot commodity as well, given his .106 average allowed and 46.7% strikeout rate. He hasn't allowed an earned run since May 15. You can't help but speculate if the Dodgers -- having long ago blasted past the $210 million tax threshold and just completing one deal for the ages -- will throw all their chips on the table and go after Kimbrel as well. Kenley Jansen's struggles of late have been well documented, but he was also having a terrific season until 10 days. Do the Dodgers trust him in October to close games out?
Will the Yankees do anything else?
The Yankees have added Gallo and Rizzo, but ESPN's Marly Rivera tweeted that a team source told her, "We are not done."
Keep in mind, however, that both the Rangers and Cubs sent the Yankees cash to help cover the remaining salaries for Gallo and Rizzo, keeping the Yankees just below that $210 million threshold. If that remains the goal, there isn't much flexibility unless Brian Cashman can work out similar deals. Finding a bullpen addition might make sense, or maybe a left fielder or center fielder, depending on where Gallo plays and if Brett Gardner is potentially pushed to a bench role.
Will the Red Sox do anything else?
The first-place team in the AL East had yet to make a deal until acquiring Kyle Schwarber late Thursday night. The Red Sox will presumably try him at first base, where they have a .648 OPS, third worst in the majors. They'll also be getting Chris Sale back in the rotation soon, but Eduardo Rodriguez had another rough outing Thursday as his ERA ballooned to 5.60. Kimbrel has been rumored here as well. The Red Sox also don't have much room under the tax threshold, with a current estimated tax payroll at $205.5 million before the Schwarber trade.
Will the NL East teams do anything?
We mentioned the Mets, and it seems unlikely Rich Hill will be their only addition. Unlike some of the other big-market teams, the Mets have a little more room to play with, sitting about $13 million to $14 million below the tax threshold. Although, owner Steve Cohen doesn't care about paying a little tax, right? Doesn't he want to win?
The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves have both been quiet so far. The Phillies were in on Tyler Anderson before he went to the Seattle Mariners, and Starling Marte would have been a perfect fit for Philadelphia in center field. Kimbrel makes sense at closer. The Phillies' low-rated farm system could be the ongoing issue here, as they might simply get outbid on players.
The Braves did acquire Joc Pederson and Stephen Vogt earlier in July and enter Friday just four games behind the Mets. They might be hoping the return of some injured players -- Ian Anderson, Huascar Ynoa, Travis d'Arnaud -- will provide the late push they need, along with continued strong performance from Kyle Muller. Still, they're 51-52 and have yet to climb over .500 on the season.
Who are some other players who might be traded?
Just to run down a few of the names:
-- Trevor Story and Jon Gray of the Colorado Rockies. Man, we haven't mentioned Story yet. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel reported that Story to the Mets is a possibility.
-- J.D. Davis of the Mets is somebody who could be included in any potential Bryant or Story deal.
-- Starter Kyle Gibson (who is signed through 2022) and closer Ian Kennedy of the Rangers.
-- First baseman Jesus Aguilar of the Marlins (possible fit for the Red Sox?)
-- Whit Merrifield of the Royals still feels like a long shot to be traded due to his team-friendly deal that runs through 2023. Teammate Jorge Soler is on an expiring deal and was having a terrible season until going on a recent binge, but he's pretty much a DH these days and thus of limited interest.
-- Closer Raisel Iglesias and starter Andrew Heaney of the Angels. The Angels have to climb over five teams just to win the second wild card, so their playoff odds are slim. They notably haven't made any trade additions.
-- Anybody else on the Nationals on an expiring deal: Catcher Yan Gomes and infielder/outfielder Josh Harrison are strong possibilities.