Bradford Doolittle hands out grades as the Toronto Blue Jays acquire LHP Brad Hand from the Washington Nationals for C Riley Adams.
Toronto Blue Jays: B
At the moment this is being written, there is a bizarre dynamic in the AL wild-card standings. There are six teams within four games of each other in the loss column, each of them vying for the second wild-card slot and road-team status in the coin-flip game. The team in the group with the best run differential is a plus-85; the worst of the bunch is at minus-58.
For the math challenged, that's a gap of 143 runs. In a vacuum, that should mean that the best wild-card contender has a record roughly 14 games better than the worst wild-card contender. But, in reality, the worst team is even with the best team in the loss column.
The two teams in question are the Blue Jays and Mariners, as you've no doubt deduced. Seattle famously has an MLB-best record in one-run games of 23-8, while Toronto's six wins in one-run contests (against 12 losses) are the fewest in baseball.
On a related note: The Blue Jays have been searching for reliable, high-leverage relievers all season. Injuries have hit them hard in this area, with the early-season loss of Julian Merryweather a major blow. The dynamic Jordan Romano has missed time, but he has been healthy of late and has been outstanding as an end-of-game option. But he simply wasn't enough.
Hand has been one of baseball's better short relievers since he emerged as a late-inning guy for the Padres in 2017. This year looked to be another strong season before he ran into difficulty this month, during which he has blown three of six save chances with a 7.88 ERA over eight outings.
What's changed?
Well, we'd be remiss if we didn't remind everyone about the evolution of spin rates around MLB over the past few weeks. For Hand, there is this: Through June 2 this season, his four-seamers and sliders together averaged 2,439 rpm. Since then, that number has been at 2,261.
Hand has changed his pitch selection during the latter time frame from what it was early in the season. For much of the campaign, he was throwing his four-seamer about as often as he has thrown his signature slider, which is the pitch primarily responsible for his success. Lately, he has revved up use of his sinker, which more or less returns him to the arsenal he featured a few years ago.
The good news for the Blue Jays is that Hand's slider has continued to perform steadily through this evolution. And while the four-seamer has lagged, it's been more a matter of command than hittability. He's a veteran adjusting on the fly and will be a crucial component to the Blue Jays' drive to return to the playoffs.
Giving up Adams wasn't nothing. ESPN's Kiley McDaniel didn't rank Adams among Toronto's top 10, but he wrote that Adams "has plus raw power and arm strength, along with decent defensive skills and some upper-level performance; a consolation prize of sorts if a team wants but can't get Danny Jansen, Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno."
The point there is that the Blue Jays have excellent organizational depth behind the plate, and the loss of Adams is less about what he does than it is about what Hand does.
If Hand's recent problems persist, this deal would prove to have been an overpay, if not in the hit to Toronto's catching depth, then at least in opportunity cost in the form of another reliever Toronto might have acquired. Their playoff hopes depend on them choosing the right guy.
Washington Nationals: B+
If someone were to design a logo for the trade deadline, it would feature the silhouette of a closer on an expiring contract. The Nationals have finally waved the white flag with this trade, something that is quite unnatural for GM Mike Rizzo to do. Really, though, he has no choice. For all the happy tales of 2019's worst-to-first run, this year's club has shown no evidence that it can make a similar charge.
The Nationals lead the majors in bWAR from the catching position, but this isn't about this year. Tres Barrera, in his first shot at extended big league duty, has hit well in a small sample this season. He should be an option going forward. But veterans Yan Gomes and Alex Avila are both headed for free agency, and Adams gives the Nats an MLB-ready addition at a position lacking depth within the organization.
That, for a closer on a non-contender with an expiring contract, is a solid return.