Perhaps it should be no surprise that the San Diego Padres and Tampa Bay Rays, two of the most aggressive teams in baseball at improving their rosters, have placed themselves squarely in the middle of seemingly every trade conversation as the MLB trade deadline (4 p.m. ET Friday) fast approaches. What does surprise executives around Major League Baseball are the players they're discussing.
The reigning American League champion Rays, long recognized for their ability to win with minuscule payrolls, have had preliminary discussions about both Washington Nationals ace Max Scherzer and Chicago Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant, league sources told ESPN. And the Padres, playing in the fifth-smallest market in baseball, are primed to exceed the luxury-tax threshold -- and continue to pursue a deal for Texas Rangers outfielder Joey Gallo and have at least inquired on other high-priced players, according to sources.
Plenty of factors could torpedo any of the talks. The cost for Scherzer, the 37-year-old right-hander, could prove prohibitive to Tampa Bay in dollars, prospects or both. While Scherzer is open to waiving his full no-trade clause to join a contending team down the stretch, sources said, the financial commitment on the remainder of his $35 million salary would far exceed what the Rays, who entered the season with a sub-$70 million payroll, are accustomed to paying.
At the same time, Tampa Bay already has bucked its reputation by acquiring slugger Nelson Cruz, and the Rays' farm system -- even after the promotion of shortstop Wander Franco, the No. 1 prospect in baseball -- is robust enough that they could theoretically include more talent if the Nationals were willing to pay down Scherzer's salary. Now in the final season of a seven-year, $210 million contract, Scherzer is actually not receiving a salary this year. Like the previous two seasons, the $35 million he's owed is deferred without interest. From 2022 to '28, he will receive annual $15 million payments July 1.
How that money owed would be handled is part of what makes Nationals GM Mike Rizzo's job over the final 72 hours before the deadline that much more challenging. For Scherzer, of course, the effort is worthwhile to contenders. He is 7-4 with a 2.83 ERA and 142 strikeouts in 105 innings this season.
The Padres, whose hunt for talent knows no positional bounds, could also pursue Scherzer, though the belief is they would only do so were they able to move money. For teams butting up against the $210 million luxury-tax threshold, he would cost a prorated portion of his $28.7 million tax number. San Diego has multiple options to shed money. The Padres have approached teams about dealing Eric Hosmer, who has four years and $59 million remaining on his deal after this season. He has a 10-team no-trade clause this year, and after the 2022 season, he would receive full no-trade protection as a player with 10 years in the major leagues and five with the same team, adding urgency to San Diego's desire to move him.
Whether San Diego finds a match depends on its willingness to attach a top prospect. General manager A.J. Preller has long coveted Gallo, the 27-year-old slugger who looks increasingly likely to move before the deadline. A deal with Hosmer going to Texas and Gallo to San Diego is a possibility, though it almost certainly would necessitate the inclusion of shortstop C.J. Abrams or outfielder Robert Hassell, considered in the industry as the Padres' two best prospects. Pitcher MacKenzie Gore also could be in play in a deal for Gallo, Scherzer or another player as San Diego looks to gain ground on the first-place San Francisco Giants and second-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the cutthroat National League West.
San Diego isn't Gallo's only possible destination. He is regarded as the most valuable hitter who's clearly available, and if he does not sign a contract extension with the Rangers -- the prospects of a deal coming together, sources said, is minimal after recent discussions -- a team like Toronto, with its deep farm system, could emerge, particularly since Gallo doesn't reach free agency until after the 2022 season.
While Gallo's control confers extra value, the Cubs could make an argument that Bryant is the most impactful bat for 2021. Though there is not a clear spot in the Rays' lineup for him, Bryant's versatility -- he can play third and all three outfield positions -- would suit the team well. Cruz's arrival will force Austin Meadows, one of the Rays' best hitters this season, to spend more time in the outfield, where the Rays have received middle-of-the-pack offensive performances.
Tampa Bay's boldness is nothing new, even if the Rays haven't spent significantly in past seasons. Officials from other teams see their front office as creative and willing to explore all options, and GM Erik Neander has earned his reputation as a dealmaker. Even if their exploration of some of the market's biggest names don't wind up in deals, the Rays -- who at 60-40 are 1½ games behind the first-place Boston Red Sox in the AL East -- are expected to be active as they fortify themselves for another October run.
Max effort
When Rizzo let teams know following the Baltimore Orioles' sweep of the Nationals over the weekend that they were open for business, the entire dynamic of the trade market changed. Even if Scherzer isn't guaranteed to move, in a market starved for good starting pitching, one of the best was there for the taking.
Executives see a pair of West Coast teams as the perfect fit for Scherzer: the Dodgers and Giants.
Los Angeles, the defending World Series champion, could slot Scherzer alongside Walker Buehler, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias and, presuming he returns healthy from forearm inflammation that landed him on the injured list, Clayton Kershaw. It would form a devastating rotation, and the Dodgers' deep farm system gives them plenty of capital to acquire Scherzer. At the same time, because they are likely to wind up past the third luxury-tax threshold, they would pay a 62.5% penalty on every dollar spent on Scherzer, making him a potentially prohibitively expensive rental.
Even with Scherzer, the Giants would be well under the first threshold, and the prospect of him fronting a rotation with Kevin Gausman, Anthony DeSclafani and some combination of Johnny Cueto, Logan Webb and Alex Wood is undeniably appealing. While there is no time -- nor a desire from Scherzer -- to work out a contract extension before the deadline, the Giants are primed to shed more than $100 million from their payroll this winter, and the prospect of selling Scherzer on an ascendant organization that's winning now and has a loaded farm system adds to the allure of acquiring him.
Certainly there is a world in which Scherzer remains with the Nationals -- his missing his last start with triceps discomfort was incredibly poor timing -- but with the Dodgers preparing for life without Trevor Bauer this season as he awaits the conclusion of a police investigation into a woman's allegations he sexually assaulted her and with the Giants determined to hold onto first place, Rizzo is in excellent position to pit them against one another.
Others will be in the Scherzer sweepstakes. Every contender could use a pitcher of his caliber. The smart money is on a team in the NL West.
Go time for the Cubs
The Cubs made their second trade of deadline season late Monday, sending left-handed reliever Andrew Chafin to the Oakland A's for outfield prospect Greg Deichmann and hard-throwing right-hander Daniel Palencia. Between that trade and the one that sent Joc Pederson to Atlanta, the Cubs have done what other executives figured they would: start offloading some of their lower-profile players.
Still in a Cubs uniform: Bryant, closer Craig Kimbrel, first baseman Anthony Rizzo and shortstop Javier Baez. The expectation is that Bryant and Kimbrel will almost certainly be moved and Rizzo could go, too.
Bryant's resurgence over the past eight games has quelled concerns about a bat that had gone flaccid for nearly two months. Even with him fitting Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, the New York Mets and others, the deadline market for position players is typically not as strong as that of pitchers -- even relievers like Kimbrel.
Granted, Kimbrel is no ordinary reliever. He is one of the best closers in history, and after two dreadful-by-his-standards seasons, he looks like his old self. He is the sort of reliever who could change a pennant race, and whether it's top contenders like Boston or Houston, teams in desperate need of relief help like Toronto or Philadelphia, a team looking to fortify its pen like the three NL West juggernauts or even one that wants to get wacky like the Rays -- who, remember, were in on Kimbrel in 2019 when he signed midseason with Chicago -- the market stands to be as ripe as that of any player at the deadline.
Rizzo's is not so robust, which is to be expected for a position player about to enter free agency. And yet the Cubs have at least had preliminary conversations with Boston about a deal for Rizzo, according to sources, as Boston has the worst first-base production of any team in baseball this season. Milwaukee could use a solution at first base as well, though the prospect of dealing Rizzo to a division rival for what presumably would be an underwhelming return is far-fetched.
Too high a return
Scherzer wasn't the only big name to hit the market when the Nationals committed to moving veteran players. Washington is willing to listen on Trea Turner, the all-world shortstop who ranks fifth among position players in FanGraphs' version of wins above replacement this season.
Turner does everything: hits for average and power, steals bases, plays an excellent short and is well-liked and well-regarded inside Washington's clubhouse. He's the sort of player the Nationals would seemingly want to lock up. But with $175 million owed to Stephen Strasburg for the next five years, the $105 million due to Scherzer and $83.25 million for Patrick Corbin in the next three seasons, plus the desire to get a mega-extension done for Juan Soto, the Nationals' willingness to listen on Turner is a potential game-changer.
It may, executives said, also be something that's explored more in the winter. There is no shortage of teams looking for a shortstop, and while the luster of the vaunted shortstop class of 2021-22 has faded, teams may see Turner -- who is a free agent after the 2022 season -- as a better bet than Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager or Trevor Story. The Nationals have told teams that to move Turner they need to be blown away, and working out that sort of deal on such short notice rarely occurs.
The high return isn't just limited to Turner. The Minnesota Twins, who have entertained trading starter Jose Berrios and center fielder Byron Buxton, have remained steadfast in their asks for two players who would be excellent core pieces for their 2022 team. Executives interested in Berrios and Buxton are hopeful that as the deadline approaches, the Twins' demands will subside. Of the two, Berrios is the likelier player to move.
As for Jose Ramirez, the Cleveland star infielder: He might be even more of a blow-us-away candidate than Turner because his contract extends through 2023 and at an amazing $24 million total. Cleveland is not actively trying to move Ramirez and will listen only because it's what all GMs worth anything do: listen. All it takes is one offer to be blown away.
Story isn't in the same category as Turner, Berrios, Buxton or Ramirez. His free agency is nigh and thus his outcome binary. If the Rockies trade him, they'll get prospects. If they don't, Story will reject a qualifying offer and the Rockies will get a compensatory draft pick after the first round -- whom they need to pay a couple million dollars to sign.
It's confusing to executives, then, that even among those who have been in touch with the Rockies, there's a sense Story doesn't move. Yes, he fits perfectly with the New York Yankees, who could move Gleyber Torres to second, DJ LeMahieu to first and Giancarlo Stanton to outfield. (Well, two outta three ain't bad.) At 51-47, the Yankees are 3½ games back of Oakland for the second wild-card spot and trying to assess whether they're good enough to warrant upping the offer Jon Heyman reported they made.
If it's not the Yankees, plenty of other teams could use Story -- though there are obstacles. He fits perfectly in Oakland. The A's may not be willing to spend the money for him. The Chicago White Sox could use a second baseman. They also have prioritized bullpen arms.
One sneaky option: The ascendant Seattle Mariners, who aren't moving J.P. Crawford off shortstop but could slide Story to second base as they try to hang with Oakland, which they trail by one game, and make a run at first-place Houston. While the Mariners balked at the price Pittsburgh was asking for Adam Frazier, they were in the midst of those discussions. And though they inquired about Kansas City's Whit Merrifield, there currently is no traction on those talks.
Popularity contest
A few players generating significant interest, per sources:
• Raisel Iglesias, Los Angeles Angels: Though he has been awfully homer-prone, allowing nine in 45 innings, Iglesias' 70-8 strikeout-walk ratio has teams reaching out to the Angels about their closer. There's interest in starter Alex Cobb, though the fear that his blister injury -- which has sidelined him at three points this season -- could be an impediment.
• Daniel Hudson, Washington: Of the Nationals' two back-end relievers, Hudson is the one with 13 strikeouts and no walks over his past eight appearances while Brad Hand has allowed seven earned runs and blown three saves in his five most recent relief appearances. Hudson, remember, is playoff-tested, having closed out Washington's World Series win in 2019.
• Merrill Kelly, Arizona: Kelly has three things going for him. First, he's an innings eater. Second, his contract is beautiful: a very affordable $4.25 million this year and $5.25 million next. Third: There are so few starting pitchers available that even a midlevel one feels like a catch.
• Tyler Anderson, Pittsburgh: See, Kelly, Merrill. Except Anderson will be a free agent this winter.
• Ian Kennedy, Texas: The 36-year-old right-hander has been excellent as the Rangers' closer. He is throwing almost exclusively fastballs -- more than 80% of the time -- and should be doing it soon for one of the many teams spending its deadline seeking bullpen upgrades.