Different front office execs look at different statistics websites, or draw from projections generated by their own numbers squads. But whatever they look at, they're looking at something to assess playoff odds, in an attempt to read the market and anticipate how it will evolve. This is apparent because when you talk to those at the top of the food chain, they're quoting those numbers liberally in the way Wall Street analysts will read stocks.
What those numbers point to, at the moment, is a lot of teams looking to trade away veterans and relatively few looking to add players late this month, leading up to the July 30 trade deadline.
Those mostly responsible for the developing conditions are the National League West teams. The Los Angeles Dodgers, the defending champions. The San Francisco Giants, the NL's most surprising team. The San Diego Padres, young and dangerous.
According to FanGraphs, the Dodgers' chances for making the playoffs stand at 99.6%, with the Padres at 93.3% and the Giants at 83.4% You can try to pick apart the system behind those numbers, but the fact is that those three clubs are overwhelming favorites to reach the postseason -- meaning that the wild card path is almost certainly inaccessible for teams in the NL East and Central.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers have begun to separate themselves from the pack of would-be contenders in the Central. Milwaukee's chances for reaching the postseason currently stand at 85.7%. The New York Mets, leaders of the NL East, are at 79.4%.
Look at the chances for the chasers in the NL:
Reds: 19.0%
Braves: 13.8%
Phillies: 11.5%
Cubs: 6.3%
Nationals: 5.6%
Cardinals: 2.3%
A lot of longshots.
There are still 24 days until the trade deadline, minus the days off for the All-Star break, and as the streaking Brewers and plummeting Cubs have demonstrated, fortunes can change rapidly within a couple of weeks. But what those playoff odds indicate is that by the time general managers have made the hard decision on whether to go for it or not, there will be a whole lot of NL teams looking to move -- and relatively few teams motivated to add.
The Mets could provide a great example of this. Their priority at the moment is to add a starting pitcher. Presumably, they're already checked in on the conversations for costly pitchers like the Rangers' Kyle Gibson, at a time when a bunch of contenders could use another starter, from the Dodgers to the New York Yankees. There will be competition for the likes of Gibson.
But the Mets could also use a thumper, with third base being a possible area of need, and it appears there may be more teams looking to move third basemen than teams looking to acquire. Last week, for example, the Mets were linked to Josh Donaldson, and several rival execs dismissed the idea that the Mets would feel compelled to take on the 35-year-old Donaldson and the $53.5 million he is owed after this season. Rather, rival execs say, the Mets can wait to see if a more palatable deal develops for the likes of Kris Bryant, who is a free agent at season's end.
"There are going to be choices for the Mets," said one NL official.
The Chicago Cubs could move Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Joc Pederson and, of course, closer Craig Kimbrel, who may turn out to be the most popular target. The Washington Nationals have attractive veterans if they decide to unload, from Max Scherzer to Kyle Schwarber (who is currently on the IL). The Atlanta Braves have Charlie Morton and Drew Smyly on one-year contracts, if they fall out of touch with the Mets. Other execs look at the Cincinnati Reds roster and see possible matches, particularly if Cincinnati makes an effort to move salary. If the Cardinals continue to languish, it would make sense for the St. Louis front office to ask Adam Wainwright about what his preference for the rest of this year might be -- stay with the Cards, or head off to a team with better chances for reaching the postseason.
You'd assume that some team would ask the Philadelphia Phillies if they are interested in talking about Zack Wheeler -- and Philadelphia would be crazy not to explore the possibilities of what the return for Wheeler would be, with the right-hander dominating, and how the resulting payroll flexibility might work for them in 2022. For the record: Phillies owner John Middleton declared during the winter he would not trade Wheeler for Babe Ruth.
The NL playoff field seems mostly locked in, and the AL is narrowing, as well. Seven teams have chances of 38.5% or better to claim one of the five postseason berths, including the division-leading Boston Red Sox (93%), Chicago White Sox (93.4%) and Houston Astros (96.1%) -- and eight of the 15 other AL teams have chances of 13.6% or lower.
Meaning: Even more teams looking to unload. And fewer looking to go for it.
Calls are being made and teams are looking for matches, and once the draft is concluded next week, it's possible there will be a lot of players moving whose trade value will dip as more are flooded into the churn.