The Minnesota Twins are in trouble.
After losing to the Chicago White Sox on Thursday at Guaranteed Rate Field, the Twins fell to 12-23, the worst winning percentage in the majors, which is saying something considering the Twins play in the same division as the woeful Tigers. The Twins also fell 10 games behind the AL Central-leading White Sox, who swept the three-game series by scores of 9-3, 13-8 and 4-2.
This was not supposed to happen. The Twins are the two-time defending division champions after winning 101 games in 2019 and going 36-24 in 2020 to edge the White Sox in 2020. The two clubs entered the season as co-favorites to win the division. FanGraphs projected the Twins as slight favorites, giving them 49% odds to win the AL Central compared to 32% for the White Sox. Colleague Bradford Doolittle's projection system rated the Twins as a seven-win favorite over the White Sox. The over/under from the Caesars Sportsbook by William Hill had both teams at 89.5 wins. The White Sox, however, were the consensus choice among ESPN's baseball staffers, with 28 of 37 picking Chicago to win the AL Central compared to nine for the Twins.
Score one for the humans -- at least for now.
Put it this way. For the Twins to win 90 games this season, they are going to have go 78-49 the rest of the way, a .614 winning percentage, which is a 99-win pace over 162 games. Given how good the White Sox have looked so far, however, 90 wins doesn't feel like enough to take the division anyway. The Twins most likely are going to have to play at better than a 100-win pace over their final 127 games to top Chicago.
That's not necessarily impossible. We can point to the 2019 Nationals, who were 19-31 after 50 games and ended up winning 93 games. They didn't win the division, but they did win the World Series.
So, what has gone wrong for Minnesota? A few key factors:
1. The Twins are 0-7 in extra-inning games.
Something tells me Rocco Baldelli is not a fan of the "ghost runner on second base" rule. Here's a quick rundown of those seven games, beginning with a tough loss on Opening Day that was perhaps an omen to how the Twins' season would play out:
• April 1: Alex Colome coughs up a three-run lead in the ninth inning, Milwaukee reliever Josh Hader strikes out the side in the top of the 10th, and the Brewers win it on a base hit and fielder's choice.
• April 6: The Twins have runners at first and third with no outs, but fail to score in the top of the 10th, and the Tigers win it on Akil Baddoo's two-out single.
• April 10: The Mariners score on a bunt single and sac fly, Twins hit two infield popups and a groundout and fail to score.
• April 21: This was a crushing defeat. The Twins score twice on Byron Buxton's home run, but the A's score three runs thanks to two-out errors by Travis Blankenhorn and Luis Arraez.
• April 26: Andrelton Simmons strikes out with the ghost runner on third and one out as the Twins fail to score. Jordan Luplow then homers off Colome to win it for Cleveland.
• May 4: The Rangers score twice off Taylor Rogers in the ninth to tie it up, then score three off Brandon Waddell in the 10th. The Twins go down on a hit, strikeout and double play.
• May 6: The Rangers score off Tyler Duffey on a wild pitch and single, and the Twins go down feebly on two strikeouts and a fly ball.
You can love the extra-inning rule or hate it, but it is an interesting test of performing in a tight situation -- getting that runner home from second and likewise getting out of that runner-on-second jam. The Twins have failed miserably. They have scored in just one of those seven extra-inning games and have given up a run (or more) in the 10th inning in all seven contests. Is this how baseball games should be decided? If you're a Twins fans, that's a big "no."
To make matters worse, the Twins are also 0-4 in seven-inning games, losing doubleheaders to the Red Sox and A's (when they were shut out in both games), so they're 0-11 in nontraditional games. It does feel a little unseemly that a team's season can fall apart in these types of games.
2. The bullpen has not been clutch.
As you can guess from the list above, the bullpen has been a disaster. As a group, Twins relievers are 1-12 with a 5.09 ERA and rank 28th in the majors in win probability added. The Twins have lost four games they led going into the ninth inning. The entire major leagues have just 18 such losses, so the Twins represent 22% of those defeats. Ouch.
We mentioned three of those above. The 5-2 lead over the Brewers on Opening Day that Colome blew. That wild 13-12 loss to the A's when Colome lost a ninth-inning lead and then a 10th-inning lead. The 3-1 lead against the Rangers on May 4 that Rogers couldn't protect. The other was a 6-5 lead over the Mariners on April 11 that Kyle Seager erased with a three-run homer off Colome.
Yes, that's a lot of Alex Colome. You won't be surprised to learn he has been the least valuable reliever in the majors via win probability added (minus-2.03 wins). Colome was coming off a fine 22-inning season with the White Sox in 2020 -- 2-0, 0.81 ERA, 12 saves, no home runs allowed. He saved 30 games in 2019 and has had 47- and 37-save seasons in the past. He's an unconventional closer, as he doesn't rack up strikeouts, instead relying on a cutter to get soft contact. The home run rate in 2020 was just a fluke, however, as he allowed seven in each of the prior two seasons. It perhaps said something that the White Sox didn't seem interested in bringing him back and instead gave big money to Liam Hendriks.
Rogers, meanwhile, had 30 saves for the Twins in 2019, but Baldelli seems to prefer matching him up depending on the situation rather than just making him the closer. That can be a valuable way to use your best relievers, but Colome's struggles might ultimately push Rogers into the ninth-inning role regardless. Which means somebody else will have to step up in the seventh and eighth innings, and it's not exactly clear who that would be right now.
3. The offense has also not been clutch.
Maybe the most frustrating part of the Twins' start is that Byron Buxton was playing like an MVP candidate (before he got injured again) and Nelson Cruz has continued to mash. If you had predicted what might go wrong with the Twins, at the top of the list would be Cruz finally gets old, Josh Donaldson gets hurt and Miguel Sano hits .121 with five RBIs through May 13. Well, one of those things hasn't happened.
Anyway, the Twins are actually sixth in the majors in OPS and rank third in the majors in position player WAR via FanGraphs, but here's the kicker: They rank 26th in the majors in win probability added from the offense. Some of that is the poor performance in extra innings, but they fall to 21st in OPS with runners in scoring position and 29th in high-leverage situations (hitting .167/.231/.262).
That lack of clutch hitting is a reason the Twins have lost 21 consecutive games when trailing at any point in the game -- their longest such streak since moving to Minnesota in 1961. They haven't had a come-from-behind win since April 8.
The last team to win a division when down by at least 10 games at some point in the season, according to Elias Sports research, was the 2012 A's, who were 10½ out as late as July 3. Before that, we go to the 2006 Twins, who were 10½ behind the Tigers on Aug. 7, although they were a strong 65-46. The Twins finished 31-20, while the Tigers collapsed with a 19-31 finish as the Twins won the division by a game.
Still, that's two teams in 15 seasons. There's always the wild card to aim for.