Jacob deGrom, the best pitcher in the world, says, very matter-of-factly, "I want to pitch into my 40s." And as much as pitchers aren't supposed to do that, they aren't supposed to gain 5 mph on their fastballs as they move into their 30s, either. And they aren't supposed to throw sliders 93 mph. And they aren't supposed to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards with historically bad run support. And, well, please, by all means, tell Jacob deGrom what he can't do and see how that goes.
"I believe I can still compete at this level at that age," deGrom told ESPN in a phone conversation this week. "To become an inner-circle Hall of Famer, I'm gonna have to play that long."
DeGrom, 32, chooses his words carefully, and those five pointed ones -- inner-circle Hall of Famer -- are no accident. When a pitcher starts his major league career on the cusp of his 26th birthday, as deGrom did with the New York Mets, that level of excellence -- not just the best of the best, but the best of the best of the best -- is unrealistic. There are too many barriers, too much early-career time lost.
To make up for it takes a historic push on the back end, and for the past half-decade deGrom has evolved from a live-armed converted college shortstop into a master of his craft whose relative lack of innings might well behoove him long term. The 2021 version of deGrom throws his fastball harder than any regular major league starter in history. This is fact. He throws it with command and precision and intent and malice. And that's just one pitch. His others similarly befuddle and confound.
That he does all of this is no accident. And it's why deGrom is willing to talk about his goals; not just to speak them into existence but to illustrate the faith he's got in himself -- and in the Mets. Which, as he prepares for his third start of the season Thursday afternoon against the Philadelphia Phillies, is important considering what happened in the first two. DeGrom deGrom'd, and the Mets Mets'd -- and 14 innings of one-run, eight-hit, two-walk, 21-strikeout baseball translated into zero victories.
There are 31 more starts to remedy that, to book wins, to embarrass hitters, to chortle at the aging curve, to remind that the modern starting pitcher and modern quarterback can be one and the same -- that what Tom Brady and Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers are doing to the age/expectation ratio in football actually has been done in baseball already.
It might seem odd to look at deGrom and think of Randy Johnson, baseball's god of pitching longevity. Get past Johnson being a 6-foot-10 left-hander and deGrom a 6-foot-4 right-hander and the similarities are quite bountiful. Both made their major league debuts at age 25. Each grew from a thrower to a pitcher. And the transition to greatness occurred as they moved into their 30s.
The numbers they put up from ages 29 to 32 are eerily similar. Johnson threw 703 innings to deGrom's 690⅓. DeGrom's ERA is a half-point better, but their ERA+ -- adjusted for park and ERA -- are almost identical. Johnson struck out 31.2% of hitters and walked 9.1%, while deGrom is at 31.7% and 6.1%. Each allowed 6.9 hits per nine innings. They carried almost exact home run and extra-base hit rates, and their ground ball-to-fly ball ratios are nearly the same. DeGrom's wins above replacement in those seasons beats those of Justin Verlander, Nolan Ryan and Roger Clemens. And if not for the coronavirus-shortened 2020 season, it likely would've exceeded legendary Mets starter Tom Seaver's as the highest total for that four-year period since Greg Maddux posted 31.3.
How deGrom found himself among such all-time greats is a testament to his curiosity, his desire to work and his willingness to buck convention. A year into his transition from shortstop at Stetson University to ninth-round pick by the Mets to starting pitcher, deGrom blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery. He returned in 2012 and was in the big leagues two years later. He was named National League Rookie of the Year in 2014, followed with an even better 2015 and was solid but missed time in 2016 and required ulnar nerve transposition surgery.
Following the procedure, deGrom started to rebuild himself mechanically. He tinkered in 2017 and saw the spoils in 2018, when he posted a 1.70 ERA and won his first Cy Young. He followed with another in 2019 and finished third last season, striking out a major league-best 104 hitters in 68 innings. His average fastball velocity jumped from 93.5 mph in 2016 to 95.2 to 96 to 96.9 to 98.6 to, in his first two starts this season, 99.1
DeGrom stays sharp by throwing constantly, using two bullpen sessions between starts -- as Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz did -- instead of the standard one. Early in his career, deGrom got Smoltz's number from teammate Kelly Johnson to pick the Hall of Famer's brain on whether he advocated throwing two bullpens. He vouched, and it became part of deGrom's routine. The day after his starts, deGrom will play catch at 90 feet. On the second day, he long tosses at about 150 feet and then throws off a mound -- 10 to 15 fastballs that he said helps keep his front side closed. He'll go with a full bullpen, 30-plus pitches, on the third day and follow with another session of catch the fourth day, before taking the mound on the fifth.
"When I get in a game, I can feel when I'm a little bit off," deGrom said. "I still do the two bullpens between each start. That helps me. Before I made all these switches to my delivery, I would be way more sore in between starts. And I can tell. There are starts where I'm a little more beat up. I'll ask and they'll say, 'You were a little more this way and that way.'"
As much faith as deGrom has in his process, there's a hidden advantage he sees in his pursuit: He might be older, but his arm isn't. Through his age-32 season, Seaver had thrown 3,190 innings between the minor leagues and big leagues. Clemens was over 2,500. So was Clayton Kershaw. Verlander and Max Scherzer each had more than 2,000. Johnson was at 1,941⅓ -- and wound up with 20.7 WAR in his 40s, up there with Clemens (22.2) and Ryan (22.6) among modern power pitchers. DeGrom entered this season with 1,493 career innings.
Is that enough to save him from the dual realities that pitchers who have undergone Tommy John surgery typically have shorter careers and that those who throw at the highest velocities often encounter arm troubles? Perhaps. The reality is this: If deGrom stays healthy and performs at his standard level this season and next, he'll almost certainly opt out of the final season of his five-year, $137.5 million contract at 34 years old and either re-sign with the Mets for a kingly sum or enter the free agent market with designs on a never-before-seen deal.
There are no comparables for deGrom. Gerrit Cole signed his nine-year, $324 million deal with the New York Yankees at 29. David Price was 30 when he got $217 million from the Boston Red Sox and Scherzer the same when the Washington Nationals gave him $210 million. Stephen Strasburg upped the ante at 31, fetching $245 million from the Nationals. The closest analog to deGrom, by contract, is Zack Greinke, to whom the Arizona Diamondbacks committed $206.5 million over six years as a 32-year-old. And with the Los Angeles Dodgers' Trevor Bauer breaching the $40 million per year threshold this year, the notion that deGrom could seek that and more over a term that approaches or even exceeds his 40th birthday is very much a reality.
"I think I'll be able to pull off being a power guy that long," deGrom said. "I can play this game for quite a while longer at a high level. It goes back to how I approach it. Making adjustments throughout my career to get where I am now. Knowing I'm a little bit off and fixing it. Learning my mechanics. Always working on them. I'm trying to perfect my delivery. Really studying the game to get hitters out."
For now, that is in a Mets uniform, and New York's World Series hopes revolve as much around deGrom as they do Francisco Lindor or Pete Alonso. He is their alpha and their omega, and for all the discussion about the paucity of runs the Mets have provided him, deGrom doesn't belabor or bemoan.
"Knowing these guys and being around them, I know they want to win just as bad as I do," deGrom said. "Whenever there's a start like that, I don't really get down, because those guys feel worse about not being able to get runs. We're all out here battling. They want to score more than I want to. These guys show up every day ready to play."
He knows that feeling. He shows up, and he throws. And every fifth day, Jacob deGrom stands on the mound -- his personal inner circle -- and does what he does better than anyone else so he can knock down those barriers and make up for lost time and wind up at the inner circle in Cooperstown that's for the best of the best of the best.