One day after ranking the top 100 individual prospects in baseball heading into the 2021 MLB season, it's time to turn our attention to each team's farm system as a whole.
These rankings of all 30 organizations were done, for the most part, the same way last year's were. In short, while at FanGraphs, Craig Edwards' research revealed empirical surplus dollar values for each FV tier of prospect, so we can now make an objective ranking derived from my individual team lists.
You may be wondering how this could be much different from last year's rankings since there wasn't a minor league season, and I'm glad you asked! A number of factors changed a team's place from last year at this time. The obvious stuff is incoming (draft, international signings, trade) and outgoing players (graduations, trade). Since we didn't have a traditional minor league season, there's little movement from players in the lower minors, with a couple of arrow up/down players from each club that had a fall instructional league.
There are also a handful of movers from alternate sites, but both of these camps had fewer scouts compared to a minor league season; there was some data/video sharing from some teams at alternate sites, and some instructs games had scouts present. The biggest value gains come in the top 100, both because the expected contributions of any player not in the top 100 is valued at less than $10 million, while that of the top player's is worth $112 million in expected performance, and also because the best prospects are ones who can gain a lot of value from playing well in the big leagues.
There are also two less obvious factors:. First, last year I used the generic values for each FV tier, so the 50th and 110th prospects were worth exactly the same. In most cases, this wouldn't move many farm systems that much. This year I used a graduated scale with a small difference between each spot in the top 117 (all the 50 FV and better prospects). I also found that some players at the bottom levels of the minors slipped a half-grade just because I had some anticipation of a breakout factored in last year, and few of them went to the alternate site, training at home for months, and some didn't even get a formal instructional league.
A new element this year, since it's my second doing these rankings for ESPN, is showing the movement from last year's list. I didn't look at these until I'd locked all the rankings, so there are a couple of trends that emerged in the metadata. First, all 30 farm systems add up to $6.137 billion, down almost $400 million from last year. This also comes with 99 additional prospects making the team lists. I think this is because the information I'm getting from alternate sites and instructs tends to be positive, and the negative is qualified with all of the conditions from last year. Without prospects being able to put up an awful stat line, it's hard to take one off a list. So, the bottom of the lists tends to be longer with a lack of bad data, while the top of the lists can't move that far north with no positive data on the elite prospects.
So, with no minor league season, the top of the list is held down a bit, and the bottom of the list is pushed up a bit, or not cut off the list when it otherwise would have been. More players on the list, less overall value; that makes sense to me. I don't think this specific set of circumstances will ever happen again, and I really hope it doesn't. On to the farm rankings!
1. Tampa Bay Rays ($496 million)
Last year: 1st, $471 million
Top 100 prospects: 9
The Rays continue moving north in farm value, essentially losing no one of consequence to graduation while adding a draft class, an international signing class and the return from the Nate Lowe and Blake Snell trades. Brendan McKay had shoulder surgery and lost value, Randy Arozarena spiked in value, while some lesser names took steps forward at instructional league and the alternate site: Seth Johnson, Ford Proctor and Taylor Walls.
The Rays' approach to building a team is conducive to how the media ranks farm systems, since they don't really trade prospects, and they convert any big leaguers making more than a few million into more prospects, which they're also pretty good at making better. The Rays will fall from this perch at some point, but they're going to be in the top 10 for a really long time. If the Rays' top two prospects graduated tomorrow -- that's two of the top 10 prospects in baseball -- and rival teams stayed static, they'd still be in first place by $10 million, which is the value of a fringe top-100 prospect. There's a chance six of their top 10 prospects all graduate by this time next year and a much closer farm-rankings race materializes.
2. Miami Marlins ($319 million)
Last year: 10th, $251 million (tied for third-biggest rankings improvement)
Top 100 prospects: 6
Miami has made a big move to the top of the teams looking up at the Rays' farm machine, but didn't do it like most organizations do. A rise usually happens with a fire sale, a number of high-profile trades of big leaguers for prospects. The Marlins have done it with old-fashioned strong amateur acquisition, both domestically and internationally, and appreciation in value from a subset of prospects that they lead MLB in: prospects on the 40-man roster who are a 40 FV or better.
Almost every 40-man roster has some younger prospects who hold little value; often one-dimensional relievers, players recently acquired on waivers, vets on minor league deals called up to fill a hole. The Marlins have 16 real prospects (40 FV or better) on their 40-man roster, so it's easier to see an appreciation in value, because so many of them can play in the big leagues and outperform projections, or demonstrate a new skill, at least moving up within their FV tier because there's less projection left.
Sixto Sanchez and Trevor Rogers were the two biggest examples, gaining almost $50 million in value (most of the overall farm system gains) from what they did in the big leagues last year. This also presents a problem going forward for the Marlins. There will be a 40-man crunch soon, like what we've seen play out with the Yankees and Rays for years, and there will be more young players who need big league time to improve than there are spots in the lineup or rotation.
Veterans like Miguel Rojas, Jon Berti, Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar, and Adam Duvall are solid players who, relative to playing rookies in those spots, increase the odds of another playoff run in 2021 but won't help Miami eventually dominate the division like breakout debuts from top prospects could. Managing both the upper-level development of premium prospects and roster constraints while staying competitive in a tough division is the next challenge for the Marlins, who have so far passed the talent-accumulation phase of their rebuild.
3. Detroit Tigers ($310 million)
Last year: 6th, $261 million (tied for third-biggest value improvement)
Top 100 prospects: 5
The Tigers, like a couple of the top-10 systems in this ranking, are starting to see the fruits of their rebuild labor as the core players of their next playoff team have materialized.
On the mound, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and Tarik Skubal are all ready for long looks in 2021, and at least two of those three are likely to graduate this season.
On the hitting side, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene look like cornerstone-type bats but probably stay on this list next year. The issue in the rebuild is that those are two of the nine spots in the lineup of the next playoff team and it's unclear if more than that is in the org right now. Infielders Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes are leading candidates, but the jury is still out and I'll need to see a little more from Dillon Dingler, Wenceel Perez, Cristian Hernandez, Parker Meadows and a few others before they get to that tier.
With the No. 3 overall pick this summer, another premium piece will be added to this system while I'll guess two will graduate and some lower down will gain value, so I'd expect the Tigers to be in the top five again next year.
More ESPN+ prospect coverage: Top 100 for 2021 | Ranking all 30 systems | Breakout candidates | AL top 10s
4. Pittsburgh Pirates ($290 million)
Last year: 11th, $248 million (tied for fifth-biggest rankings improvement)
Top 100 prospects: 6
The Pirates are doing an old-school, top-down, fire sale-style rebuild and it won't have much margin for error in terms of supplementary free-agent spending with the payroll limitations inherent to working under this ownership in Pittsburgh. Josh Bell, Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove were the big names shipped out this winter, with Starling Marte going before last season. Jacob Stallings, Adam Frazier and whichever veteran reliever is throwing well form the rest of the decent veterans list for the 2021 season, so the rest of the teardown won't yield that much.
The good news for Pirates fans is they've done well so far in these deals and had a solid first draft under new GM Ben Cherington, who comes from both the Cleveland tree (working under Mark Shapiro in Toronto) and the Theo Epstein tree (working with, then succeeding him in Boston), so there's some track record of building a successful organization through scouting and development, as the Pirates demand. Pittsburgh has prioritized upside in the lower minors, targeting prospects at the upper levels when dealing with the Yankees, who needed to clear 40-man space.
The next wave should help, with Oneil Cruz (position unknown, ungodly power), Travis Swaggerty (center fielder with some pop), Miguel Yajure (No. 3/No. 4 starter type) and Jared Oliva (well-rounded potential low-end everyday center fielder) at the upper levels. Beyond them recent first-rounder Nick Gonzales could shoot up from 66th on this list with a strong minor league campaign due to his short amateur track record, and a recent velo spike from 2019 first-rounder Quinn Priester means he could as well. SS Liover Peguero and CF Hudson Head are further behind developmentally but have everyday upside, and the No. 1 overall pick (and the 37th) will likely join this group, with a couple more emerging into this tier from the 45 FV area on this year's list. There's solid depth, the team should continue adding talent, and with losing only a couple to graduation, the Pirates are ultimately likely to hold a spot in the top five again next year.
5. Minnesota Twins ($290 million)
Last year: 13th, $234 million (second-biggest value improvement, tied for third-biggest rankings improvement)
Top 100 prospects: 5
The Twins are another of the Cleveland-influenced front offices that value looking at the short, medium and long term at all times in an effort to have a self-sustaining scouting and development infrastructure. Functionally that means they'll probably never be at the top of the projected standings, or luxury-tax payroll spending, or maybe even farm rankings, because they'll have a super long list from a deep system that keeps graduating solid prospects to the big league team.
Minnesota has both its domestic and international amateur scouting groups doing well, along with player development. Homegrown LF Eddie Rosario was non-tendered to make room for internal replacement Alex Kirilloff (No. 22 on the top 100) and No. 57 overall prospect Ryan Jeffers is now splitting time behind the plate with Mitch Garver.
The next wave of upper-level talent includes former No. 1 overall pick Royce Lewis, another corner thumper in Trevor Larnach and a trio of potential mid-rotation starter options: Jordan Balazovic, Matt Canterino and Jhoan Duran. Kirilloff, Jeffers and one or two others are likely to graduate, so without a premium draft selection this summer, I'd foresee the Twins slipping a bit closer to 10th on this list next year, but still staying securely in the top half.
6. Seattle Mariners ($275 million)
Last year: 9th, $252 million
Top 100 prospects: 5
The Mariners haven't made the playoffs since 2001. They did win 89 games in 2018, but then the rebuild started and we're now seeing the benefits from that approach. Kyle Lewis, Justus Sheffield and Evan White graduated to the big leagues last year with varying levels of success, but the best of what the farm will produce is coming later in 2021 or in 2022.
Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, Logan Gilbert, Emerson Hancock, Taylor Trammell, George Kirby and Cal Raleigh are all on the way, likely appearing within two years and having everyday to All-Star upside. Wild card Noelvi Marte is a little bit behind that timetable but has the upside to be the best of the group. The No. 12 overall pick this summer should bring another player to that group, but this ranking likely goes down either next year or surely by 2023 when this top tier of talent graduates to the big league team with payroll spending likely going up to supplement the group.
7. San Diego Padres ($271 million)
Last year: 2nd, $358 million (second-biggest value decline)
Top 100 prospects: 6
As you'll see a few more times below, the Padres lost value for a good reason: Good players either graduated to contributing to the young core of a playoff team (Jake Cronenworth, Adrian Morejon) or were traded for impact big leaguers (error: too many names). The Padres' approach was to keep their top 50-overall types and trade almost anyone else and they basically did that, as the depth is largely gone and only one elite prospect was traded (Luis Patino to the Rays for Blake Snell) with another from the back end of the top 100 (Taylor Trammell to the Mariners for Austin Nola).
Almost all of the upside, growth types outside of the top 100 are gone, with Justin Lange, Josh Mears and a handful of recent international signees as those who remain, but the overall farm value is still propped up by those elite prospects along with the signing of Ha-Seong Kim (86 overall) as a free agent from the KBO. MacKenzie Gore, Luis Campusano, Kim and possibly Ryan Weathers all could graduate this year, though the big league team is so stacked that Kim is the only slam dunk to do so.
The Pads will have to adjust to picking near the end of the first round now, and I can confirm they're still splashing around in the deep end of the international markets every year. I'm not sure how to actually quantify this, but it's the Rays and Padres in a dead heat for the most young talent (prospects plus under-25 talent in the big leagues) in baseball, so look at this decline in value as a shift from farm value to roughly 9 more wins in 2021 (and in future years) along with the associated increased odds of a World Series title (or more).
8. Baltimore Orioles ($256 million)
Last year: 17th, $211 million (tied for biggest rankings improvement, fourth-biggest value improvement)
Top 100 prospects: 4
The O's are starting to see some results of their rebuild, with the first wave reaching the big leagues and the best a year or two behind in second-ranked prospect Adley Rutschman and 30th-ranked Grayson Rodriguez. System depth is also now starting to form faster than players are graduating, with a couple of draft and international signing classes and most pricey veterans already moved via trades.
Ryan Mountcastle and Keegan Akin probably graduate this year, but the No. 5 overall pick this summer should top them in value and there are a few pick-to-click types lower down the list who will probably yield a couple of big risers next year. I'd expect the Orioles to be in the top five of next year's list.
9. Cleveland Indians ($246 million)
Last year: 12th, $244 million
Top 100 prospects: 3
Cleveland pioneered giving extensions to top young players back in the 1990s, then the franchise's efficiency on a budget spawned satellites in Toronto and Minnesota, while its pitching-development practices, international approach and draft models are all being copied around the industry. This franchise made the playoffs four of the past five years, including a World Series that went seven games. I point all of this out because there's a lot of venom for the tiny payroll the Indians are running and their trade of Francisco Lindor.
Nobody likes rooting for a team or a league where Tampa Bay and Cleveland just trade their best players and keep trimming payroll. That being said, these two teams are very good at it, so better this than the ham-fisted fire sales like the Marlins of an earlier era.
Cleveland graduated only relief ace James Karinchak from the top of the list last year, and a big improvement/health from Triston McKenzie, along with the return for Lindor and Clevinger, helped offset that loss. There's a staggering depth of quality prospects here, particularly from the international program, and particularly of middle infielders, so there's plenty of room to move up on next year's list, even with a couple of top-100 types likely to graduate.
10. Arizona Diamondbacks ($244 million)
Last year: 7th, $261 million
Top 100 prospects: 4
A year ago, the Diamondbacks were seen as quietly one of the best-run teams in baseball, and I still think that's the case -- but they had a tough 2020. They gave $85 million to Madison Bumgarner, who isn't as bad as he was in 2020, and they traded Starling Marte down the stretch for less than they got him for six months earlier en route to a last-place finish in the now fearsome NL West. With the Giants on the rise and the Padres and Dodgers pacing the entire NL, the Diamondbacks needed to regroup and try for another run at the playoffs with a homegrown club.
The good news is they already have the pieces they'll need, they just have to wait a year or two for them to get to the big leagues. Utility-fit Daulton Varsho graduated from the top 100 last year, and the Snakes have four more position players in the top 65 of this year's top 100. None of those four will graduate this season, but they should start showing up in the majors in 2022 -- along with some premium pitching that will at least be in the upper minors by then.
Arizona is probably best described as being in talent accumulation mode, but the franchise's internally developed prospects have the D-backs a year or two ahead of most teams pivoting into a rebuild/reload situation
11. Toronto Blue Jays ($230 million)
Last year: 20th, $187 million (tied for biggest rankings improvement, fifth-biggest value improvement)
Top 100 prospects: 5
The Jays just had one wave of young talent graduate to the majors (Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Danny Jansen, Cavan Biggio, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.) and didn't graduate anyone of consequence in 2020. There's a few stragglers who still have prospect eligibility (Nate Pearson and Alejandro Kirk), followed by another wave forming behind them (Austin Martin, Jordan Groshans, Simeon Woods Richardson, Gabriel Moreno, Alek Manoah, Orelvis Martinez, Miguel Hiraldo).
There has been some free-agent supplementation in George Springer, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Marcus Semien along with about $50 million coming off the books after this season in case the Blue Jays want to dip into the big-money end of the free-agent pool again. It's an enviable position for an organization to be in overall, with some payroll upside, a lot of young talent and a real contender status right now -- a version (with more cash to spend) of what this management group had helped put together in Cleveland. Toronto is basically a year or two ahead of what the Giants (at No. 12) will probably do, and the Jays have a lot of options in terms of how to use all of their capital to compete in a brutal division.
12. San Francisco Giants ($221 million)
Last year: 16th, $217 million
Top 100 prospects: 4
The Giants lost only Mauricio Dubon and Logan Webb to graduation last season, while adding strong talent in the draft and seeing some value created at the alternate site/instructional league with a few international prospects. The Giants are in an intriguing position as a franchise. They are a potential financial heavyweight that is over $50 million below the competitive balance tax threshold and could have over $100 million coming off the books after the year, depending on what they do with the options on Johnny Cueto's and Buster Posey's contracts. They have a solid farm system that's trending up and has some solid high-end, upside talent, but nowhere near enough to plug in and replace what they might be losing.
This is why they're seen as a huge threat next offseason with the bonanza of free-agent position players (maybe Francisco Lindor and Freddie Freeman, almost certainly Javier Baez, Trevor Story, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Kris Bryant, and more) to supplement their current core. The farm system comes into play as another facet of what could be a very busy next offseason. Do the Giants try to acquire more talent via trade? Do they trade one of their catchers in the top 100 so they can handpick some upper-minors young talent rather than developing players from the previous regime? They could go in a few directions -- the most likely is trying to make the NorCal version of the Dodgers and staying sustainable via scouting and development -- and are probably the most intriguing team to watch in baseball over the next 12 months.
13. Atlanta Braves ($221 million)
Last year: 3rd, $286 million (tied for third-biggest rankings decline)
Top 100 prospects: 4
We've now reached the "enjoy your very good big league team, because the farm ain't gonna be pretty next year" portion of the proceedings.
The Braves were a perennial top farm system, then did what a farm system is supposed to do, graduating impact talent to the big leagues to make a playoff-caliber young core -- Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies, Mike Soroka, Max Fried, Dansby Swanson, Austin Riley, Kyle Wright. Now there's another wave that's at or very close to the big leagues in Ian Anderson, Cristian Pache and Drew Waters. It's likely all three of those top-35 prospects in baseball lose their prospect eligibility this season, along with 117th-ranked Bryse Wilson, and possibly a few 45 FV prospects, as well. Once this happens, either during 2021 or early in 2022, the whole farm system will essentially be defined by the past two draft classes and the upcoming 2021 draft class due to the international sanctions that are just now being lifted.
Those draft classes have been fine given where the Braves have been picking, and they dipped back into the seven-figure end of the international pool last month, in addition to being very aggressive in future international classes. But the fall in next year's rankings could be severe, perhaps to the bottom third, if not bottom five. Again, farm rankings don't really matter much when you've got a young contending core and a pretty full 40-man roster, but this is an article about farm rankings, so I must point out where the Braves are headed in this prospect circle of life.
14. Chicago White Sox ($204 million)
Last year: 8th, $251 million
Top 100 prospects: 4
The White Sox made the playoffs with the help of some prospects who graduated, headlined by Luis Robert and some bullpen depth, and continued to improve the club by trading Dane Dunning to get Lance Lynn. They drafted well, adding Garrett Crochet and Jared Kelley last summer, and signed top international prospect Yoelqui Cespedes last month. Now for the bad: Their system has very little quality depth beyond the four players on the top 100 and they are all likely to graduate from prospect eligibility this year.
The team's fifth-best prospect is a 40+ (at least 307th-ranked in all of baseball), so this ranking will go down next year and possibly sharply. Now that's for the best reason, which is to put together a core for a contending young team, but the farm system supplies margin for error. These next-best prospects are generally upside types with huge tools or teenagers, so there's room for them to grow to fill the void, but they can fill only so much of it in one season when the void is the size of four top-100 prospects.
15. New York Yankees ($199 million)
Last year: 5th, $277 million (tied for third-biggest rankings decline, fourth-biggest value decline)
Top 100 prospects: 2
The Yankees are probably the best example of how to lose a lot of value on this list this year without losing actual real-world value. I downgraded Deivi Garcia a bit (from 45th to 71st) as there was more widespread skepticism of his upside given his size, and Clarke Schmidt kept the same 50 FV grade, but slid down a bit within the tier, from 82nd to 115th. I also slid Kevin Alcantara and Alexander Vargas down from the bottom of the 50 FV tier to the top of the 45+ FV tier as their expected breakouts were replaced with a lack of information, a very minor move that could be reversed with four to six weeks of performance. Those are all pretty minor moves, and the Yankees added more amateur talent, while not graduating anyone of note, so how did they lose $78 million of value and should Yankees fans be worried?
No, but the reason is kinda nerdy! Garcia got the generic 55 FV value while being the second-to-last player in the tier, so his slight downgrade was exacerbated by the value metric, or said another way, he was overrated by my tabulation process last year. Schmidt got the generic 50 FV grade last year and now gets the bottom-of-the-tier value. There's a pretty big drop-off in the value of 50 FV to 45+ FV for empirical reasons, but Alcantara and Vargas didn't get any worse, there was just some optimism and momentum priced into their grades last year that's gone for now, but could easily come back. So, in summary, the Yankees' second and third prospects are a tiny bit less valuable than last year and there's a handful of wait-and-see lower-minors types just behind them who have big upside, but I need to see something before upgrading them. You could argue the farm is actually a little better now than it was last year. The ranking is more indicative of the players' actual talent, while last year's fifth was a bit of an overestimation due to not foreseeing a pandemic and a behind-the-scenes calculation issue that's been fixed.
16. Los Angeles Dodgers ($193 million)
Last year: 4th, $279 million (tied for biggest rankings decline, third-biggest value decline)
Top 100 prospects: 3
The Dodgers got a big downgrade this year, but for very clear reasons: Gavin Lux, Dustin May, Brusdar Graterol and Tony Gonsolin all graduated. L.A. continues to stand out in the amateur-acquisition end of things, with Bobby Miller and Clayton Beeter ranked well ahead of their implied draft position and bonus as Michael Busch and Kody Hoese did the year before. The international group continues to outpace expectations by adding Wilman Diaz, my top international prospect this year, after a strong group the year before, headlined by Luis Rodriguez, a 2018 crop headlined by Diego Cartaya and Alex De Jesus, and a 2017 crop that included Andy Pages, all 40+ FV or better.
The Dodgers' top two prospects (Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz) have a real shot to graduate this year, but the rest of the top dozen or so will be returning, so this system will likely be arrow up next year, providing more data to describe how the Dodgers are doing the big-market version of what the Rays are doing and the rest of baseball is trying to copy.
17. Kansas City Royals ($190 million)
Last year: 23rd, $177 million
Top 100 prospects: 3
The Royals are getting close to the full first wave of their rebuild landing in the big leagues, with Brady Singer and Kris Bubic already graduating from that group and now Daniel Lynch and Jackson Kowar not far behind them. Their lower-minors upside talent includes their past two first-rounders (Asa Lacy and Bobby Witt Jr.), who both made the top 100 list easily, and their last premium international signing (Erick Pena), who just missed the list at No. 119 despite being 17 and not playing an official pro game yet.
Nick Loftin and Kyle Isbel offer quick-moving everyday upside beyond them, but this system is still being made over, so it's pretty ordinary behind that top seven. Lynch and Kowar aren't on the 40-man roster and the rotation is full right now, so there's a real shot Kansas City leaps into the top 10 of next year's list after adding the No. 7 overall pick in the draft to its system.
18. St. Louis Cardinals ($171 million)
Last year: 15th, $216 million
Top 100 prospects: 4
St. Louis didn't do much on the minor league front in 2020, not graduating anyone of note, no big improvements/declines among the holdovers, solid additions via the draft in line with where they were drafted, etc.
The Cardinals obviously moved some prospect talent in the Nolan Arenado deal and you can see they lost some value above, but that's within the margin of error in adjusting how I valued the top 100 prospects with specific rather than generic values. Dylan Carlson will graduate this year, but the rest of the group has a chance to add value, so I'd expect some improvement next year.
19. Cincinnati Reds ($168 million)
Last year: 19th, $185 million
Top 100 prospects: 3
The Reds basically stood pat this year, not graduating anyone of note or making notable prospect deals, just adding some amateur talent from last year's list. C Tyler Stephenson looks likely to graduate this year, along with possibly SS Jose Garcia, but the rest of the list has a shot to add value and the Reds could land a potential top-100 prospect with the 17th overall pick this summer.
Given its payroll constraints and veteran big league roster, it's important for Cincinnati to keep the flow of young talent coming and the Reds have a long history of doing it well. top-100 prospects Jeter Downs, Josiah Gray and Taylor Trammell were originally drafted by the Reds and they seem more likely to hold on to players of that caliber going forward, as evidenced by not making a big move for a shortstop yet this year.
20. Texas Rangers ($167 million)
Last year: 25th, $148 million
Top 100 prospects: 2
The Rangers are one of the clubs whose ranking was most impacted by the pandemic. They have one of, if not the deepest system in the game, but lack the clear top 100-type talents to rank high using my method. Most of the clear information we got from their prospects was from those pushed to the big leagues on a last-place team to get meaningful playing time.
It'll probably take two years for a lot of the 40 or 40+ FV type youngsters to play their way into the top 100-150 in baseball and really accumulate the value needed for a top-10 system, but Texas is in talent accumulation mode so the Rangers should end up there soon enough.
21. Boston Red Sox ($159 million)
Last year: 27th, $121 million
Top 100 prospects: 2
We've reached the disgruntled fan base portion of these rankings, with the Red Sox and Cubs near the beginning of a big-market reload sort of situation. Both are accumulating young talent and avoiding giving out huge long-term guarantees while trying to do some version of the Rays or Dodgers model of sustainable scouting and development.
The Sox didn't graduate any prospects of note, and added a solid but not elite group of drafted, international and traded talent along with some modest gains from existing players. Bryan Mata, Bobby Dalbec, Tanner Houck, Connor Seabold and Garrett Whitlock should all get big league looks in 2021, possibly losing eligibility. To move up again next year, the Sox will need continued internal gains, a couple more prospect-adding trades and another strong incoming amateur class, headlined by a likely mid-top-100 prospect with the fourth overall pick in July.
22. Cubs ($156 million)
Last year: 24th, $158 million
Top 100 prospects: 2
So Cubs fans are probably (OK, more than probably) unhappy about why the farm system has added some high-upside, low-minors talent this winter. The loss of Kyle Schwarber for nothing and Yu Darvish for mostly low-minors types, along with cost cutting leading into the impending doom of free agency for Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Kris Bryant, doesn't make for happy times on the North Side. All of that said, the Cubs are doing a solid job of rebuilding the farm with high-upside position players, the same thing they did to build this core in the first place. Brennen Davis, Ed Howard and Cole Roederer are draftees with a real shot to be everyday players, while Miguel Amaya, Brailyn Marquez, Adbert Alzolay, Christian Hernandez and Kevin Made headline the homegrown international crop, and the four players from the Darvish deal (Yeison Santana, Reggie Preciado, Ismael Mena, Owen Caissie) are the top upside types acquired via trade.
The Cubs are still just 22nd because this influx was balanced out by graduating Nico Hoerner and these metrics are mostly defined by top-100ish prospects. So next year might see the Cubs continuing to collect young talent, graduating a few, seeing some move into that top 100-150, and landing somewhere in the middle of this list, then 2023 could see them completing this phase and being near the top of the list, as much as a two-year wait might be tough to accept for Cubs fans.
23. Los Angeles Angels ($149 million)
Last year: 21st, $183 million
Top 100 prospects: 2
The Angels are continuing to compete under new GM Perry Minasian while they have the best players on the planet. They lost Jo Adell and Patrick Sandoval to graduation, traded Jahmai Jones for Alex Cobb, and lost Jose Soriano to Pittsburgh as a stash Rule 5 pick. Adding Reid Detmers in the first round as a quick-moving starter will also help to serve the big league team. Top prospect Brandon Marsh seems set for a 2021 debut, so there's a solid chance the Angels either stay here or move down a bit in next year's rankings.
24. Philadelphia Phillies ($138 million)
Last year: 22nd, $181 million
Top 100 prospects: 1
The Phillies lost a lot of value in their system when Alec Bohm graduated with a stellar rookie campaign.
Taking out the past two first-round picks, the Phillies' top seven of eight prospects are all on the 40-man roster, offering some short-term value being close to the big leagues. That also means there isn't as much premium talent in the lower minors to fuel a move up the rankings, and plenty of potential graduations before next year's list. This, combined with a team that's trying to compete, means Philly will probably stay in the bottom third of the list for another couple of years.
25. New York Mets ($119 million)
Last year: 18th, $186 million (fifth-biggest rankings and value decline)
Top 100 prospects: 2
The Mets moved up a spot as this list was locking Wednesday night, adding Khalil Lee for free, as far as this list was concerned, because the Mets traded a fringe prospect and player to be named later for a new entrant into their top 10.
The Mets traded some solid young players for Francisco Lindor, graduated a few more (one of whom was also traded for Lindor), and did well in the draft. The depth has eroded here beyond the top handful of prospects (who are basically all recent first-rounders and big international bonuses), but the Mets have built solid 40-man depth for big league inventory, so this is less essential.
26. Oakland Athletics ($117 million)
Last year: 14th, $222 million (tied for largest rankings decline, largest value decline)
Top 100 prospects: 2
Oakland is a good example of a team using its farm system for the right reason (making the big league team better) and also as a way to lose tons of value without mortgaging the future or doing a bad job (graduating elite prospects to the big league team). Jesus Luzardo (4th) and Sean Murphy (61st) both graduated from last year's list and A.J. Puk will probably lose his eligibility by the middle of 2021.
What's left is basically the last few high picks and top international bonuses but, similar to the Nationals, there's a history of top-tier talent passing through this system even without Rays-style nonstop prospect hoarding.
27. Colorado Rockies ($107 million)
Last year: 28th, $117 million
Top 100 prospects: 1
The Rockies continue to be the worst-run team in baseball at the top, but actually have pretty solid domestic and international amateur departments. The nonsensical trades down the stretch for Kevin Pillar and Mychal Givens are mostly balanced out by an even more nonsensical trade of Nolan Arenado and the incoming international class.
Smartly taking RF Zac Veen when he fell into their laps in the first round is almost enough to replace graduating former top-10 pick 2B Brendan Rodgers, both prep picks from the Orlando area.
28. Houston Astros ($91 million)
Last year: 26th, $136 million
Top 100 prospects: 0
Houston lost some pitching depth (Jose Urquidy, Enoli Paredes and Cristian Javier) to graduation that helped in its playoff run, while Forrest Whitley continues to lose value. That accounts for basically all of the lost value, with a couple of improvements (Jeremy Pena, Hunter Brown, Luis Garcia, Colin Barber) and incoming amateur talent (Alex Santos, Pedro Leon) making up most of the other adjustments. Keep an eye on Pena, Brown and Jairo Solis to be the potential big gainers in 2021.
29. Milwaukee Brewers ($88 million)
Last year: 30th, $101 million
Top 100 prospects: 0
Milwaukee didn't trade or graduate anyone of note from last year's list, adding a deep draft and international class. The Brewers have gone for bulk internationally to positive returns of late, with Eduardo Garcia, Abner Uribe and Jesus Parra in 2018; Hedbert Perez, Jeferson Quero and Luis Medina in 2019; and Jackson Chourio in the recently signed 2020 class all ranking as 40 FV or better for bonuses of under $2 million each. That might not sound overwhelming, but very few clubs have gotten that efficient of a return that quickly in the international market.
30. Washington Nationals ($59 million)
Last year: 29th, $111 million
Top 100 prospects: 1
The Nats are perennially in an unusual position: a bottom-five farm system with a number of big league stars who have come through that system. The system has produced Stephen Strasburg, Juan Soto, Anthony Rendon, Bryce Harper and Victor Robles, along with a brief stop from Trea Turner, and this is largely because (or why) the Nats target upside in the amateur markets. Righties Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli are their past two first-round picks and have frontline potential at the top of the system.
The other side of this coin is graduating prospects to the big leagues (two top-100 members from last year in potential stars Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia) and trading midtier prospects for big league help (Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean for Josh Bell).