For the breakout prospects portion of this year's look at the top young players in baseball, I'm looking at prospects ranking below a 45+ future value (FV sums up the total future value of a player into one number). Drawing the line there removes the top 167 prospects in baseball and pinpoints the best candidates to move up in 2021 -- in some cases onto next year's top 100.
If you're looking for the current top 100 prospects who will be on the top 10-20 next year, I reference them on that list and I'll go even deeper on my team-by-team lists later in the week, but my best candidates are Riley Greene, Grayson Rodriguez and Corbin Carroll. Some other big risers (Matt Canterino, Slade Cecconi, Oswald Peraza, Seth Johnson) rose too much based on what they did at the alternate site and/or instructional league to qualify for this list.
Here is (at least) one player on each of MLB's 30 teams who could put up a breakout performance in the minors in 2021.
National League
Arizona Diamondbacks: Levi Kelly, RHP and A.J. Vukovich, RF
Kelly looked like a reliever to me in high school and there's still some chance of that, but he has made real progress with his delivery, command and consistency of his stuff. His velocity is now into the mid-90s, his slider that was a plus pitch coming out of high school is now bordering on plus-plus and his mentality will probably play up in short stints if the changeup and command don't continue progressing.
Vukovich is a deceptively athletic dual-sport athlete with monster raw power who will fit at one of the corner-outfield spots. Early looks at instructional league were even better than Arizona was expecting for a player who got a $1.25 million deal in the fourth round out of a Wisconsin high school.
More ESPN+ prospect coverage: Top 100 for 2021 | Ranking all 30 systems | Breakout candidates | AL top 10s
Atlanta Braves Michael Harris, RF
Harris has all the makings of a 19- to 20-year-old full-season debut of a toolsy prep hitter who's loud enough to jump onto a top 100. Signs from the alternate site had to stand in for that in 2020 and they're all positive, but there just aren't any useful stats. He has above-average raw power, speed, defense in a corner (or fringe to average in center field for now), and a plus arm.
His pro performance thus far has been solid, but he was turned in as a pitcher by some clubs in the 2019 draft, and wasn't a summer showcase stalwart, so there just isn't as much data as I need to run Harris up the list. A strong first half of 2021 in low A could be enough. His tools are pretty similar to some top-50 overall pick types that are already on the top 100. Harris has also bowled a 300 game and is trying out switch-hitting, per his Instagram, indicating a level of athleticism and picking things up quickly that bodes well.
Chicago Cubs: Reggie Preciado, SS
There are a number of intriguing young bats in this system, with a group of potential risers coming back from San Diego in the Yu Darvish deal and added in the last two international signing classes for the Cubs. Since I'm looking at who will jump up the list in the next year -- not over the next three -- I'll lean to one of the older prospects of that bunch who still has plenty of untapped potential in Preciado.
He is a 6-foot-4, switch-hitting shortstop who was one of the top players in the 2019 international class and has already shown progress in two instructional leagues for San Diego before heading to the Cubs in the Darvish trade. He'll turn 18 just as the minor league season gets started and has a chance for four above-average tools (excepting speed) at third base, where he likely eventually ends up.
Cincinnati Reds: Bryce Bonnin, RHP
There are some exciting young bats who could have been the choice here, but most of them are already rated pretty highly and would need to have a monster season to move into the top 100.
Bonnin may be a reliever, but that isn't a done deal, and he's got two plus pitches in his heater and slider that have potential for more.
Colorado Rockies: Brenton Doyle, CF
Doyle could have already done this in a normal 2020 season, but his breakout was contingent on proving his tools played in games over a bigger sample, and that was impossible to accomplish.
He's a plus runner with plus raw power and an above-average arm that profiles in center field. The main concern as an amateur was being a late riser at a D2 school, so there was no way to demonstrate he could hit at the level he'd need to to go in the top couple of rounds. Doyle has an OPS over 1.000 through 51 pro games, so another season of anything close to that would put him right there in the conversation for a top-100 spot.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Wilman Diaz, SS
There are a number of solid candidates here and I normally don't pick recent international signees because they are mostly 16-year-olds who will play at such low levels that their stats don't mean much. Diaz was my top prospect in this recent international class (bat first, well-rounded, polished infielder) but he hasn't been seen widely for almost two years and teams now scout the DSL, so he will get seen.
He could find his way to top-100 status with a strong debut; his TrackMan data, instructional league performance and being widely seen by all 30 clubs might be enough for a prospect with his kind of elite talent.
Miami Marlins: Peyton Burdick, RF
Being a late-coming, smaller-school draft prospect led to some concern about Burdick's tools before a loud pro debut. His chance to prove it was for real in 2020 never materialized, but arrows are still pointing up.
Burdick turns 24 soon, and he mashed in low-A in 2019, so he could well find his way to Double-A for much of 2021. He has huge, plus raw power, a plus arm for right field and above-average athleticism.
Milwaukee Brewers: Hedbert Perez, CF and Eduardo Garcia, SS
There's a lot of talent from the past couple of international classes in the system for Milwaukee, with Venezuelans Perez and Garcia leading the group right now.
Both are relatively polished for teenagers and are hit-first players with enough tools to play up the middle. Perez has a little more raw speed and power right now, while Garcia offers more defensive value and projection.
New York Mets: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF
Crow-Armstrong fits the recent pattern of pedigreed, tooled-up prep position players who don't make the top 100 after being drafted due to lack of pro data, then make it the next year after an above-league-average performance in a full-season debut.
He's a plus hitter and runner who fits in center field with excellent feel for the game while also growing into more power at the plate.
Philadelphia Phillies: Johan Rojas, CF
Rojas is another toolsy player who took a step forward in 2019 and looked primed to take another one in 2020 -- but didn't get a full minor league season to prove it.
He's a little too free of a swinger but has plus raw power, speed and arm strength in a center-field profile so there's plenty of margin for error. Indications are that he has improved his approach a bit and also lifted the plane on his swing to tap into more of that power in games.
Pittsburgh Pirates: Maikol Escotto, SS
Keeping with a theme of today's article, Escotto broke out as a 17-year-old in the DSL in 2019, then in instructional league after that.
One scout compared him to Martin Prado in that he probably isn't a shortstop but can play anywhere else on the field and has a hit-over-power profile but enough pop that it should play average in games down the road. Escotto was the second-best piece going to Pittsburgh in the Jameson Taillon trade and could jump into the top-100 conversation with a strong U.S. debut in 2021.
San Diego Padres: Josh Mears, RF
The Padres' seemingly bottomless supply of high-upside toolsy types in the low minors has been thinned out considerably by the past two years of trades. Mears is now the best position-player version remaining.
He was a late-rising, cold-weather position player so some teams didn't see this upside: a 6-foot-3, 230-pound teenager with plus-plus raw power (exit velos as high as 115 mph), an above-average arm and deceptively plus straight-line speed, though it plays down a bit in game situations right now.
He's a power-over-hit type who struck out a little too much in his pro debut but also belted seven homers in 43 pro games. Anything better than a 30% strikeout rate could shoot him up the Padres' list if he keeps posting big in-game power numbers.
San Francisco Giants: Gregory Santos, RHP
Santos is one of the most notable pitching prospects who has displayed a spike in stuff since the pandemic began. He was added to the 40-man roster this winter after hitting 100 mph and flashing three plus pitches during the summer and fall.
His velocity was already into the upper 90s at times in 2019 to go with a potentially plus slider, but he had a history of shoulder soreness and inconsistent other traits. The changeup and health have improved and, even if he projects as a multi-inning relief option, Santos could be in the top-100 conversation with a strong, healthy season for an organization that excels in pitcher development.
St. Louis Cardinals : Masyn Winn, SS/RHP
Winn is one of the few players in the minors who will be developed as both a position player and a pitcher. First and foremost, he'll be a shortstop, and the Cardinals are staying open-minded about letting him get on the mound a couple of innings at a time if the situation allows; most players in similar situations have one role completely shut down by the club.
It's easy to see why Winn bucks that trend: He is a plus runner with a plus-plus arm who projects to stick at shortstop, develop above-average raw power and has shown contact skills along with premium athleticism.
On the mound, Wynn sits in the mid-90s with the type of carry/rise that analysts love and a high-spin breaker. Both pitches rate at least as plus right now and have a shot to be plus-plus, but his command and changeup lag behind.
Washington Nationals: Andry Lara, RHP
Lara has a Livan Hernandez starter kit: a durable workhorse frame, a fastball that already sits 92-95 mph, a breaker that flashes plus and the traits to stick as a starter.
He is unusual in that he just turned 18 and isn't that physically projectable, but more strength and maturity will come to go with stuff and command that are already advanced for his age. He hasn't pitched in an official pro game yet but was already arrow up last fall in instructional league right after signing out of Venezuela.
American League
Baltimore Orioles: Gunnar Henderson, SS
Henderson had a very strong pro debut in 2019 after being selected with the No. 42 overall pick out of an Alabama high school. He has solid-average tools across the board and probably slides over to third base.
There is some projection with his 6-foot-3 frame and swinging from the left side gives him a little extra upside, so he would find himself in the top-100 conversation with a solid full-season debut in 2021.
Boston Red Sox: Garrett Whitlock, RHP
Most of the players in this article are toolsy teenagers who haven't played much yet, but Whitlock is pretty different. He was a 2017 18th-round pick by the Yankees out of the University of Alabama-Birmingham as a sinker/slider system inventory arm with a quirky delivery and arm action.
He beat expectations with strong performances through high-A, but struggled in 15 starts at Double-A before a 2019 Tommy John surgery. He got back on the mound during the 2020 season and wasn't protected by New York because he hasn't been seen on a mound in over a year when the Red Sox took him in the Rule 5 Draft.
He posted videos on Instagram of his post-surgery bullpens and was sitting 93-95 while showing an at-least above-average slider and cleaner arm action. He'll likely open the season as a long reliever but has a shot to grab a rotation spot if things go well in shorter stints.
Chicago White Sox: Jared Kelley, RHP
The White Sox skew toward polished college products in the first round but have recently collected more variance in prep arms with their other biggest bonuses.
Kelley got the biggest bonus of this group as the No. 47 pick in last summer's draft and has the most "now" ability with possibly the most upside as well. He is the type of pitching prospect -- a mid-90s heater that hits 100 mph, a plus changeup, solid strike throwing -- who often posts strong lower-minors numbers. His main issues are the consistency and quality of his breaking ball and the bat-missing characteristics of his fastball, but neither should hold him back until the upper levels of the minors.
Cleveland Indians: Aaron Bracho, 2B and Angel Martinez, SS
Cleveland gravitates toward hit-first middle infielders in the international market: sometimes players of Bracho's type -- just OK raw tools, probably not a shortstop, limited physical projection -- and sometimes the more traditional athletic-style players most teams are signing every year.
Bracho still got a seven-figure bonus because his hit tool and pitch selection are so advanced, he is a switch hitter, and he was seen widely in game situations as an amateur. He's still a teenager and has played only 38 pro games, so he could shoot up the list with a higher level of proof that the hit tool is what I'm suspecting -- and even higher if the power is too.
Martinez is a plus runner with a plus arm who has the tools to stick at shortstop, still has that advanced hit tool that Cleveland desires and is a teenager who has played only 56 pro games.
Detroit Tigers: Dillon Dingler, C
Dingler popped up in the fall before the 2020 draft as a mid-first-round talent after missing the summer due to injury and being converted to catcher from center field. That position switch underlines his raw athleticism as he has at least average speed and above-average projections behind the plate defensively to go with plus arm strength and plus raw power.
I ranked him No. 17 in my pre-draft rankings but he slid to the 38th overall pick due to a short track record of hitting and some concern about a past injury. The tools and intangibles for a breakout are here, as there's more variance in Dingler's profile than you normally see from a college position player selected in the top 50 picks.
Houston Astros: Colin Barber, CF and Alex Santos, RHP
Barber is a 2018 fourth-rounder who got late-second-round money ($1 million) while Santos got late-second-round money ($1.25 million) when he went in the compensation round after the second round in 2019 -- the first pick the Astros had due to the penalties from the sign-stealing scandal. The early returns on both are positive, but only Barber (a solid 28 games in rookie ball) has a pro stat line to show for it.
Barber is a plus runner who profiles in center field and Houston loves his makeup, already seeing improvements in both his swing and defensive work in 2020.
Santos had some of the best spin rates and pitch design of the 2020 crop of prep arms. He held his own in instructional league after a long layoff while facing an older level of competition and could post gaudy lower-level strikeout numbers due to his fastball/curveball combo.
Kansas City Royals : Nick Loftin, SS
Loftin is a perfect fit for the industry's current trend in hitter evaluation in leaning into contact rate as a proxy for both bat control and pitch selection, implying that a walk rate could be learned.
We've already seen that some advanced athletes who excel as hitters can learn to add power, and Loftin looks to be another example after going from near the bottom of the scale to a decent level of pop in his abbreviated draft spring at Baylor.
The Royals took Loftin No. 32 overall but gave him a $3 million bonus commensurate with the No. 22 overall pick. Loftin appealed to a wide base of teams, with scouting-oriented clubs such as Kansas City liking Loftin's makeup and ability to improve, while progressive clubs gravitated to the inherent teachability of his specific skill set.
Los Angeles Angels: Jeremiah Jackson, 3B
Jackson had trouble with contact on the showcase circuit leading into the 2018 draft but showed solid tools. He performed incredibly well against mediocre competition in his draft spring in southern Alabama, but most clubs didn't see enough to change their opinion. The clubs that dug deeper learned Jackson got glasses after his uneven summer, so some clubs thought his spring now indicated he was living up to his tools while others remained skeptical since he was facing much lower competition.
The Angels drafted Jackson 57th overall, and he has hit 30 homers in 108 rookie-level games since. Jackson's vision correction and results since add a notable improvement to his projection, but now the question is if he can continue to get to that sort of power at higher levels with a strikeout rate below 30%.
Minnesota Twins: Matt Wallner, RF
Wallner put up big power numbers as a freshman at Southern Miss (19 homers in 66 games) after an under-the-radar prep career in Minnesota. The Twins drafted him as a bit of a favor in 2016, but realized they should've made a stronger push to sign him quickly and corrected that mistake by taking him 39th overall in 2019.
Wallner is a 6-foot-5, 230-pound lefty-hitting corner masher with 70 raw power and a plus arm that touched the mid-90s on the mound in college. He's a late-count power hitter who will lean into the three true outcomes (walk, strikeout, homer) and is deceptively about average defensively in right field despite his size. He is now 23 and has played only 12 games in the full-season minors, so the question is how well his offensive tools will play against advanced pitching.
Minnesota is deep with corner power bats (former first-rounders Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach and Aaron Sabato), but Wallner has arguably the highest upside of all of them. He made some improvements with his swing in 2020, and 2021 is his chance to make a move up the list.
New York Yankees: Josh Breaux, C
Breaux popped up in the spring of 2018 at a Texas junior college by hitting 99 mph on the mound in relief, showing a 70 arm behind the plate as a catcher and flashing 70 raw power in BP. He was still pretty raw in all phases, with more pro upside as a catcher, but with real questions given the short track record, as both a catcher and hitter.
His pro career has reflected that, but he has been making progress with a solid 2019 full-season debut and improving reports on his work behind the plate. A good 2021 season could get him in the conversation as the Yankees' catcher of the future.
Oakland Athletics: Brayan Buelvas, CF
Buelvas profiles as a true center fielder with plus bat control, plus speed and above-average arm strength and defensive value.
He's still just 18 and has played only 67 pro games since signing out of Colombia in the 2018 international class. The early returns for a prospect whose tools ticked up after signing are all positive, with exemplary amateur production in games, the energy and makeup scouts and coaches love, pitch recognition and now strength that should translate well at higher levels.
Buelvas has a real shot to get in the mix for next year's top 100 if he can produce a full-season performance in line with these tools.
Seattle Mariners: Levi Stoudt, RHP and Adam Macko, LHP
Stoudt was a favorite out of Lehigh leading into the 2019 draft as a potential No. 4 starter type with a plus changeup. He needed Tommy John surgery shortly after the draft, which affected his draft/bonus situation, and he still hasn't pitched a professional game yet.
He was one of the stars of Seattle's alternate site, picking up where he left off with the plus changeup, above-average command and average breaking ball, but showing a little more velocity in sitting 93-96 and hitting 97 mph.
Macko was a seventh-round pick out of a Canadian high school (he was born in Slovakia) in the same 2019 draft and also came on a lot during instructional league. He's up to 96 and flashing an above-average curveball with TrackMan-friendly pitch characteristics and the traits to start. He's already drawing a lot of interest via trade.
Tampa Bay Rays: Heriberto Hernandez, LF and Carlos Colmenarez, SS
Colmenarez, like the Dodgers' Wilman Diaz, is another easy one for this list as they were two of the top three players in the most recent international class. Colmenarez swings from the left side and is a little bigger with more present power than Diaz. It's still early, but Colmenarez probably slides over to second or third base down the road.
Hernandez came over from the Rangers this winter in the Nate Lowe trade and has some Kyle Schwarber vibes, with an outside shot at catching and a chance for a 60 hit/power combination.
The speed, defense and arm don't offer a lot if catching doesn't work -- likely left field or first base -- but Hernandez's short-season exploits at the plate are eye-opening. Most hit/power-only prospects on the top-100 list come with Double-A performance, but Hernandez could get on there with a strong showing in low-A and a short high-A look in 2021.
Texas Rangers: Justin Foscue, 2B and Evan Carter, CF
The Rangers took a consensus college bat and a wild card, an unexpected prep bat, with their first two picks in the 2020 draft, with positive early pro reports on both.
Foscue can hit, hit for power, and play a fine second or third base. If he gets to high-A in 2021 and mashes as expected, he'll be on the top 100 next year.
Carter is a projectable outfield tweener with a power/speed combo but a shorter track record of hitting in games. He had an excellent showing in instructional league against older, more experienced pitching, with 17 walks and 17 strikeouts in 75 AB and more doubles/triples power than over-the-fence power at the moment. He'll probably go to low-A and could join the list of toolsy teenagers who jump into top-100 consideration with a loud full-season debut.
Toronto Blue Jays: Miguel Hiraldo, 3B
Hiraldo got $750,000 in the 2017 international class due to his bat speed, raw power and potential infield fit.
He's still largely the same type of prospect, with a decent shot to stick at third base, and above-average bat speed, bat control, raw power and arm strength. His tendency to chase a bit and continuing to get to his power in games are the question marks, along with only one game of experience in full-season ball.
If he continues down this road in 2021 at low-A, he'll enter that top group of the Toronto system.