Fingers crossed that the 2021 MLB season will begin on time -- and that we get to see some live baseball at the ballpark this year.
As we wait, Buster Olney continues his annual ranking of the 10 best players at each position heading into the coming season, based on input from industry evaluators. Wednesday it's infielders, featuring two current free agents atop their respective positions, and what could be a historic crop of free-agent shortstops next winter. He has already ranked pitchers, and will follow with outfielders on Thursday and teams on Friday.
Jump to a position:
First basemen | Second basemen | Shortstops | Third basemen | Catchers
First basemen
It's one of my favorite stories to tell: In the spring of 2010, a rookie outfielder named Jason Heyward was getting a ton of attention -- and rightfully so -- for shattering car windows far beyond the right-field fence at the Braves' spring training facility. Heyward was big and strong and any solid contact seemed to rocket. Every March, I liked to ask Chipper Jones -- who was nearing the end of his career -- about position players, because of his unique understanding of hitting. And so I asked him about Heyward's swing.
"That guy," he said, pointing at Freddie Freeman, "is going to be a better hitter."
He didn't mean it as a knock on Heyward. It was more about how Freeman's swing would play better through the years, to Jones' eyes, with more practical uses, in fighting off tough pitches, in working through slumps.
A decade later, Freeman has finally graduated from being a perennial member of all-underrated teams to being the National League Most Valuable Player, with a really good chance of making a speech in Cooperstown. His career OPS+ is 139, and in that statistical neighborhood, you can find Alex Rodriguez, Reggie Jackson and Duke Snider. Freeman just passed 1,500 career hits, has a .295 career average (with five seasons hitting over .300). This was the fifth time he's finished in the top 10 in the MVP voting, and he's won a Gold Glove, a couple of Silver Slugger Awards. And he's the best first baseman in baseball.
Here's the top 10:
The Top 10
1. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
2. Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox
3. Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
He dramatically reduced his strikeout rate, and posted his sixth season with an OPS+ of at least 142. (In fact, three of his past four seasons, he generated a 142 exactly.)
Alonso's short season was rough at times, with the slugger hitting .231 and sometimes looking lost -- and yet at year's end, his OPS+ was 123. There is a lot of Mark McGwire to his game: He is so absurdly strong that even in slumps, he's going to do damage with his sheer strength.
6. Anthony Rizzo, Chicago Cubs
His contract is set to expire at the end of the 2021 season, but Rizzo has a lot of history with this franchise. He's a huge part of Cubs history, with nine years of damage, and registered the final out of the 2016 World Series. He's 31 now, and if he and the Cubs don't reach an extension agreement in spring training, Rizzo will be playing for his next deal.
7. Luke Voit, New York Yankees
8. Max Muncy, Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Carlos Santana, Kansas City Royals
He needs just nine more walks to reach 1,000 for his career, and 10 more home runs to achieve 250.
10. Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants
Best of the rest
Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies; Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks; Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays; Josh Bell, Washington Nationals; Garrett Cooper, Miami Marlins
Second basemen
A lot of space was devoted here last year to how the position of catcher will be greatly impacted if and when an electronic strike zone is implemented. Skills the industry has valued through the years -- pitch presentation (or as it's more commonly known, framing), or dealing with the home plate umpire effectively -- will be obsolete if ball-and-strike calling is automated. What front offices will look for in catchers will be dramatically different, with a focus on offense and blocking balls in the dirt.
Along the same lines: If rules are put in place to strangle defensive shifting as part of an effort to bolster offense, the perceived value of many infielders will be altered significantly -- perhaps more at second base than any other spot.
The most frequently discussed shift proposals are:
1. Spikes in the dirt. Under this idea, the infielders would be required to stay on the infield surface.
2. Staying at home. The first and second basemen would be required to stay on the right side of second base, the shortstop and third basemen on the left side.
If either or both of these ideas are implemented, then it would become much more difficult to hide a weak defender. In recent seasons, teams have done this a lot at second base, with the Brewers providing some of the more prominent examples, moving third basemen Travis Shaw and Mike Moustakas to second base, to foster more offense. Defensive concerns could be mitigated by bunching the infielders into a smaller area.
But if shifts are eliminated, that will change everything, because there will be less peer help for weak defenders. "Range and mobility will be in play a lot more," one evaluator said.
That'll be good for the likes of Kolten Wong, whose defensive excellence has been devalued, to some degree -- but not so good for burly sluggers who can masquerade as middle infielders while being hidden among a forest of teammates on the right side or the left.
The Top 10
1. DJ LeMahieu, free agent
He's 32 years old, but his ability to put the ball in play and his positional versatility would greatly mitigate the risk of any team looking to invest a long-term deal in a player in the back half of his career. In his 50 games last season, LeMahieu had more extra-base hits (22) than strikeouts (21). His OPS+ of 177 was the best in the American League.
2. Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
There will be a lot of eyes on his throwing this year after he fought the yips in the 2020 postseason, a problem that sometimes comes and goes. He also struggled offensively in last summer's short season, but remember, he's a 30-year-old with a .311 lifetime batting average.
3. Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
4. Jeff McNeil, New York Mets
We're taking a leap of faith here in assuming that McNeil will wind up playing a lot of second base in 2021, given Robinson Cano's suspension and the possibility that the Mets could add an outfielder. Wherever McNeil plays, he's a top-10 player.
5. Ozzie Albies, Atlanta Braves
His OPS against left-handers (.860) was significantly better than it was against right-handers (.491) in 2020, but he's 24 and there are adjustments to come.
6. Cavan Biggio, Toronto Blue Jays
In his second season, he drew 41 walks in 59 games, a big part of what he'll bring to the table in years to come. And think about this: He's 20-for-20 in stolen bases in the big leagues. It's like he grew up in a baseball family or something.
7. Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
8. Kolten Wong, free agent
9. Keston Hiura, Milwaukee Brewers
10. Tommy La Stella, free agent
Best of the rest
Mike Moustakas, Cincinnati Reds; Jake Cronenworth, San Diego Padres; Luis Arraez, Minnesota Twins; Cesar Hernandez, free agent; Adam Frazier, Pittsburgh Pirates
A special mention: The Dodgers' Chris Taylor needs to be on one of these lists somewhere, but it's difficult to place him because of his versatility -- he had 20 appearances at short last year, 19 in left field, 13 at second base, six in center field and six at designated hitter.
Shortstops
(Editor's note: This ranking was published before Francisco Lindor's trade to the Mets and has been updated to reflect the move.)
A lot of what is happening in this winter market seems to be dictated, to a large degree, by what will next happen next winter -- the emergence of arguably the greatest class of free agents at one position, ever.
There are questions about the impact of COVID-19 on team spending, of course, and the end of the current collective bargaining agreement next December hovers over the horizon. But the sluggish spending might also be affected by the pending reshuffling of star power in next fall's extraordinary free-agent class of shortstops.
I reached out to Sarah Langs of MLB.com with the question of just how unusual it is that that so many youngish high-level players from one position (other than pitcher) reach free agency at the same time. She applied two filters in assessing past classes: players who got four years or more in the contracts they've signed, and players who were in their 20s when they signed those deals.
The most free-agent signees at one position, in one offseason, while meeting those two qualifiers? Two.
There might well be five free-agent 20-something shortstops who sign contracts of at least four years next winter -- Francisco Lindor (unless he signs an extension sooner after being traded to the Mets), Trevor Story, Corey Seager, Carlos Correa and Javier Baez.
Some agents believe the uncertainty about where each player in this group will land might be affecting the aggressiveness of the typical spenders. Lindor has already moved this offseason. Similarly, if the Rockies don't sign Story this winter, it'd probably be wise for them to deal the slugger. Rival executives have wondered if the Yankees are saving some of their financial ammunition because of all of those available shortstops next winter. The Dodgers might not engage Cody Bellinger in talks about a long-term deal now because they need to resolve Seager's situation first. Marcus Semien, the best shortstop of this winter's free-agent class, hasn't signed yet -- and it's fair to question whether some teams that might be interested in him are choosing to wait because of what's to come in the next year. The Phillies, Mets, Giants and other big-money teams will all be looking to fill the spot into the future.
Shortstops are bound to dominate the conversation soon.
By the way: Here's the list Langs compiled of past free-agent groups who got deals of four years or more while in their 20s and manning the same position:
2000-01 shortstop, 2: Alex Gonzalez, Alex Rodriguez
2004-05 outfield, 2: Carlos Beltran, J.D. Drew
1994-95 outfield, 2: Gregg Jefferies, Larry Walker
1990-91 outfield, 2: Vince Coleman, Darryl Strawberry
2004-05 third base, 2: Adrian Beltre, Troy Glaus
2015-16 outfield, 2: Jason Heyward, Justin Upton
1991-91 outfield, 2: Bobby Bonilla, Danny Tartabull
2004-05 shortstop, 2: Cristian Guzman, Edgar Renteria
1992-93 outfield, 2: Barry Bonds, Ruben Sierra
2001-02 outfield, 2: Roger Cedeno, Johnny Damon
The Top 10
1. Francisco Lindor, New York Mets
He did not play especially well in the 60-game season, hitting a pedestrian .258, but some rival evaluators believe that once he settles into his future home with a long-term contract, he'll find another gear offensively -- locking down and being more consistent in his plate appearances.
2. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres
It's remarkable to think that last winter, the Padres flirted with the concept of acquiring Lindor and moving Tatis to another position, because at that time, there was concern about Tatis' defense consistency, about his attention to detail. Well, all of that was wiped away by Tatis' staggering performance in his second season in the big leagues, when he became a must-see, one-man show.
3. Trevor Story, Colorado Rockies
4. Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
To hear White Sox coach Joe McEwing describe Anderson's work ethic and progress, it seems very possible that Anderson might soon top this list, as he continues to learn about his own swing, and about pitch sequences.
5. Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have the ability to spend as much money as they want, but if they continue to work within the competitive balance tax rates, they might be faced with an interesting decision sooner rather than later: Would they prefer to lock up the 26-year-old Seager or the 25-year-old Cody Bellinger to the whopper contract? With the Dodgers committed to pay a ton of money to Mookie Betts and, of course, always having to pay for good pitching, they might not keep both Seager and Bellinger -- if they continue to adhere to a CBT-prescribed budget. Seager has had some injuries in his career and Bellinger is the better athlete, but Seager might turn out to be the more consistent offensive player.
6. Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox
7. Trea Turner, Washington Nationals
The Nationals' shortstop appears as if he's on the cusp of evolving from really good to exceptional in his offensive production, as he continues to add power. His ISO has jumped from .145 in 2018 to a career-high .253 last year.
8. Carlos Correa, Houston Astros
He might have more money on the line than any player in baseball in 2021, with a need to demonstrate, before he hits the free-agent market, that he can stay on the field.
9. Marcus Semien, free agent
10. Dansby Swanson, Atlanta Braves
Best of the rest
Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees; Javier Baez, Chicago Cubs; David Fletcher, Los Angeles Angels; Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays; Nick Ahmed, Arizona Diamondbacks; Willy Adames, Tampa Bay Rays
Third basemen
You have to make peace with imperfection when you rank the third basemen -- your own imperfection. Because it's such an absurdly deep and talented group that however you rank them, it's going to look wrong. Flat wrong.
You could build a legitimate case for as many as six different players to occupy the top spot.
Anthony Rendon might be the best right-handed hitter in baseball. Jose Ramirez finished second in the MVP voting last summer. Manny Machado ranked 10th in fWAR among all position players last season. Matt Chapman seemingly owns all defensive metrics. Alex Bregman is among baseball's best all-around players.
So you'll see holes in this list of the top 10 third basemen in the big leagues. I see holes in this list, which is so packed with exceptional players.
The Top 10
1. Anthony Rendon, Los Angeles Angels
2. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians
If he played basketball, he'd be a guy who would fill up a line score -- he'll hit for extra bases, he led the AL in runs scored last season, he'll take a walk, he'll steal a base, he'll make plays. He's won three Silver Slugger Awards.
3. Manny Machado, San Diego Padres
A lot of the numbers from the 60-game season can be ignored, but a lot of the underlying metrics tell a story about Machado, about a player who locked in. He did a lot more damage against breaking balls, increased his defensive runs saved from 2 in the full season of 2019 to 7 in the short season of 2020, pulled the ball and increased his rates of line drives to career numbers.
4. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
5. Matt Chapman, Oakland A's
Since the start of 2017, Andrelton Simmons -- among the best-fielding shortstops ever -- has the third-most defensive runs saved among all position players, with 73. Mookie Betts, someone you've probably heard of, is second, with 74. Chapman is No. 1, with 81. The next-closest third baseman is Nolan Arenado, with 55.
6. Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies
7. Justin Turner, free agent
8. Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs
9. Rafael Devers, Boston Red Sox
It's pretty rare that the presence of a manager -- or lack thereof -- can have a major impact on a player, but Devers really seemed to miss Alex Cora, who connected with the young third baseman and seemingly coaxed him into good habits with a bunch of small reminders. Cora is back and Devers is a strong candidate for a bounceback year.
10. Eugenio Suarez, Cincinnati Reds
Best of the rest
Yoan Moncada, Chicago White Sox; Brian Anderson, Miami Marlins; Gio Urshela, New York Yankees; Josh Donaldson, Minnesota Twins; Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
Catchers
It's unbelievably rare, an NL executive said, that you have a position player who is so far and away the best player at his position. He was talking about J.T. Realmuto. "Nobody's close," he said.
Nope. Over the past three seasons, Realmuto leads all catchers with at least 600 plate appearances in WAR and is third in wRC+. He's an excellent defender, one of the best at framing pitches, and has thrown out 69 of the past 167 runners who have tried to steal against him. On top of all that, Realmuto is the best baserunner among the regulars at his position -- based on the metrics, it's like comparing Usain Bolt to Bartolo Colon.
And Realmuto has a reputation as a great teammate. "It's pretty rare that you have a player who checks every box the way he does," one evaluator said.
The Top 10
1. J.T. Realmuto, free agent
2. Yasmani Grandal, Chicago White Sox
3. Travis d'Arnaud, Atlanta Braves
4. Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
5. Willson Contreras, Chicago Cubs
6. James McCann, New York Mets
He was one of the most coveted free agents of this winter, with teams chasing after his improved offense -- he had an .896 OPS for the White Sox in 2020, while sharing time with Grandal -- and his leadership in working with pitchers. "He established a relationship with each guy, especially the younger guys," said Don Cooper, who just ended his long tenure as pitching coach for the White Sox. "He was a good person to everybody, and was good in his preparation for each game, each pitcher."
7. Will Smith, Los Angeles Dodgers
8. Roberto Perez, Cleveland Indians
9. Yadier Molina, free agent
10. Sean Murphy, Oakland A's
Best of the rest
Christian Vazquez, Boston Red Sox; Austin Nola, San Diego Padres; Omar Narvaez, Milwaukee Brewers; Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees
And one thing about Gary Sanchez: New York's hot stove conversation has been dominated all winter with talk about whether the Yankees should move on from Sanchez, simply dumping him. Some evaluators with rival teams hoped this is what they would do. "I'd love to try to fix him," one uniformed staffer said. "When he's right, no other catcher hits like him." The Yankees waited until the contract tender date to make it official that they were keeping him, but that's what they intended to do all along.