Fingers crossed that the 2021 MLB season will begin on time -- and that we get to see some live baseball at the ballpark this year.
As we wait, Buster Olney continues his annual ranking of the 10 best players at each position heading into the coming season, based on input from industry evaluators. Thursday, it's outfielders -- the top 10 left fielders, center fielders and right fielders. He's already ranked pitchers and infielders, and he will follow these with the top 10 teams on Friday.
Left fielders
Joey Votto travels with Ted Williams' book "The Science of Hitting" and has built a Hall of Fame résumé based on a lot of the principles that Williams espoused -- like not doing the pitcher a favor by chasing pitches out of the strike zone. Williams loved to talk hitting, and through the last years of his life, he developed friendships with the likes of Tony Gwynn.
I texted Votto that I thought Williams would've loved to watch the Nationals' Juan Soto, who might be the closest replica to Williams, with his remarkable plate discipline and power. Through Williams's age 21 year -- two seasons -- he had 203 walks, 54 homers and an OPS of 1.041 in 293 games. Through Soto's age 21 season, he has played 313 regular-season games -- two full seasons, basically -- and has 228 walks, 69 homers among 146 extra-base hits, and an OPS of .972.
"He's a hitting outlier," Votto responded. "I'll take a guess that there hasn't been enough impetus for young players to be patient only until recently. He's clearly taken pride in his plate discipline from an early age and been rewarded with performance and -- I would also guess -- supportive coaching.
"There's a nuance to disciplined hitting that needs to become a habit. It's not like swinging hard and hitting a ball 115 mph. That's primal, natural. Hitting with discipline is something you elect to do. It's partially controllable.
"There are so many factors that go into it, and I don't want to speak for Soto, but there are certainly some habits you have to develop and reinforce when you are young. If you don't have coaching that can support that, then the player needs to be very stubborn with his thinking, which, in my opinion, requires a strong independence. Soto, in my opinion, has that. As in: This is the type of hitter I want to be; get out of my way."
Pitchers are on the other end of Soto's will, as well. Soto has created a mountain of crazy numbers already, but here's one of my favorites: When he led off an inning in 2020 -- when pitchers might've been most likely to challenge him -- Soto went 13-for-25, with four doubles, four homers, eight walks, one hit by pitch and one strikeout. For your basic .520/.647/1.160 slash line.
What follows is a ranking of the Top 10 left fielders in baseball. The identity of the No. 1 guy is pretty obvious, through the compilation of thought from folks around the industry. Other choices were more complicated, particularly by the question of who might be more suited to be ranked among the designated hitters.
The Top 10
1. Juan Soto, Washington Nationals
2. Christian Yelich, Milwaukee Brewers
There was a lot of debate during the truncated season why Yelich struggled so much -- and there's no disputing that his troubles were acute, something more than a slump. His contact rate was easily the worst of his career, and his swing rate was way down. The guy who seemed to be in complete control of his plate appearances in his dominant seasons suddenly looked incredibly confused. Sometimes he looked like he was guessing wrong over and over and over, with the befuddlement covering his face as he walked away from the plate. There has been industry speculation that he was still dealing with the aftereffect of the fractured right kneecap he suffered at the end of the 2019 season. My guess, after talking with folks who know him: Yelich was among the players affected by how dramatically the COVID-19 protocol changed processes. The regimented preparation that had worked for Yelich in the past was simply not available to him, and he may have suffered for it. He struggling terribly against off-speed pitches -- in 2018, Yelich batted .302 against breaking balls; last year, .191. He batted just .169 against right-handed pitchers, with a .345 slugging percentage. That seems almost impossible.
ESPN's Paul Hembekides sent this along: "I think his issues in 2020 stem from a lack of confidence -- he just stopped swinging. His swing rate on all pitches dipped to 35% (in '20), which ranked 141st among 142 qualified hitters. I think we'll see him hunt early in counts against next season."
Yelich is 29 years old. The safe bet is that he'll bounce back and do a ton of damage in the summer ahead.
3. Marcell Ozuna, free agent
Of the 60 games Ozuna played last season, only 21 were in the outfield, so if you wanted to make the argument that he should be ranked among designated hitters, well, you'd have a good case. He is widely seen as defensively challenged and although he is just 30, his future is clearly going to be at DH. But for now, it's not wholly clear whether the universal DH will be adopted for the 2021 season, despite the fact that both MLB and the Players Association want it. It's possible Ozuna will sign with an NL team and play left field most of the time.
But Ozuna is valued for his bat, for his advanced understanding of how pitchers will try to work against him. Braves manager Brian Snitker mentioned during the playoffs that he liked to hear Ozuna predicting to teammates in the dugout the pitch sequencing he was about to see -- and a lot of the time, Snitker said, Ozuna would be exactly right. He led the NL in home runs, RBIs and total bases last season, thriving with runners in scoring position: in those moments, Ozuna batted .364, with a .444 on-base percentage and a .623 slugging percentage.
4. Michael Brantley, free agent
He's hit .300 or better in five of the last seven seasons, and in the two he didn't, he batted .299 (in 2017) and was injury-ravaged in the other (2016).
5. Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
He looks ready for a huge breakout season, after another year of offensive maturation. Only 30 MLB hitters had a lower rate of soft contact than Jimenez -- Fernando Tatis Jr., Corey Seager, Anthony Rendon and Freddie Freeman were among those ranked ahead of him. From Jimenez's first season to his second, his wRC+ jumped from 116 to 141.
Over the past two seasons, he has a .393 on-base percentage, and an OPS+ of 140.
7. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
He had such a good showing last year that as some rival executives kick around the idea of a possible Toronto match in a Francisco Lindor trade, they think Gurriel could anchor the package of players going from the Jays to Cleveland. The 27-year-old batted .308 last season, with a .534 slugging percentage.
8. Tommy Pham, San Diego Padres
He struggled in 2020, with his slugging percentage (.312) matching his on-base percentage. It's worth remembering that during the 2018-19 seasons, Pham had an on-base percentage of .368 and scored 179 runs in 282 games.
9. Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
So how do you rank a player who didn't have his first 2020 plate appearance until Aug. 30, but may have been the first- or second-best player in October, depending where you want to stack Corey Seager? The damage he did in the playoffs and World Series, against some of the best pitchers in the world, was absolutely staggering. On the other hand, the league still hasn't had a chance to develop a counterattack against the right-handed-hitting masher.
But at the least, we know the potential is there.
10. Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds
He is an OBP machine, a mini-Votto. In his first 303 games in the big leagues, he has a .380 OBP and an .859 OPS.
Best of the rest
A.J. Pollock, Los Angeles Dodgers; Eddie Rosario, free agent; Andrew Benintendi, Boston Red Sox; Robbie Grossman, Detroit Tigers; Clint Frazier, New York Yankees
Center fielders
The greatest player of this era turns 30 in 2021. Mike Trout was born on Aug. 7, 1991, and every so often, it's worth a few moments to consider the start to his career, to remind yourself that you are watching a historic peer of Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth. He's played at that level, and sometime this season, he'll surpass 1,000 runs for his career, and move beyond 1,500 hits.
His career OPS is 1.000, exactly. His OPS+ is 176 -- a standard surpassed by only four players: Babe Ruth (206), Ted Williams (191), Barry Bonds (182) and Lou Gehrig (179).
The top 10 center fielders, based on input from folks under the MLB umbrella:
The Top 10
1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
Another historical comp for Trout, unfortunately, is the link that is developing with Ted Williams: their paucity of postseason opportunity. Williams played in just one World Series, and at a time when he was nursing an elbow bruise, Williams hit .200, with five walks and one RBI in seven games. In Trout's only three games in the postseason, as the Angels were swept by the Royals in a 2014 division series, he went 1-for-12 with a solo home run and three walks.
Trout is about halfway through his career, maybe even further along than that. The sport needs to have him back on the postseason stage in the next few years.
2. Cody Bellinger, Los Angeles Dodgers
One evaluator said that Bellinger's swing is so unusual that he'll probably always struggle for consistency, for finding the feel he needs to be successful, and because of that, he'll probably have a lot of ups and downs. This is not unusual: Cal Ripken Jr. spent his whole career fighting for feel, winning two MVP awards but also posting seven seasons in which he batted in the .250s or lower. In the 60-game season, Bellinger hit .239 and was moved down in the lineup to the No. 6 spot. But his range of skills at this stage of his baseball life is so extraordinary -- the defense, the baserunning -- that Bellinger is still a great player even when he's not swinging great.
3. George Springer, free agent
With big-name, big-money free agents, there is usually a question of how the player will respond in big games, big moments. For Springer, that box is checked indelibly. He has 19 homers in 63 postseason games, and only three players have more: Manny Ramirez (29), Bernie Williams (22) and Derek Jeter (20).
4. Ramon Laureano, Oakland A's
5. Starling Marte, Miami Marlins
6. Trent Grisham, San Diego Padres
7. Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays
8. Jackie Bradley Jr., free agent
9. Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox
10. Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
Best of the rest
Brandon Nimmo, New York Mets; Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners; Aaron Hicks, New York Yankees; Victor Robles, Washington Nationals; Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins
Right fielders
Some of Mookie Betts' former teammates watched him go through the postseason last year and believed he really was out of sorts at the plate. When he's locked in and at his best, they reported, he's consistently pulling the ball, driving it, and this is not what Betts was doing. He went three rounds without hitting a home run, and had one extra-base hit in the seven-game National League Championship Series against the Braves.
But despite all of that offensive imperfection, the lasting impression Betts left behind is that of the closest thing you can have to a perfect player in a sport filled with moments of failure. He scored 15 runs in 18 postseason games, reminded everyone that he's the best baserunner in the game -- and then there was his defense, with layer upon layer of highlights. The double play he executed, reaching down to glove a looper in front of him and throwing toward home, with Marcell Ozuna eventually called out for leaving too soon. A catch made high against the right field wall to take extra bases away from Ozuna. The home run he stole from Freddie Freeman in the NLCS, his leap perfectly timed. The quick reaction and retreat and leap before taking extra bases away from Brandon Lowe in Game 4 of the World Series. And yes, by the end of the World Series, he did find his best swing, enough to put a punctuation mark on the Dodgers' championship with an eighth-inning home run in Game 6.
That Betts is the best right fielder in the game is assumed. The question that resonated at the end of October is about the best position player on the planet -- Betts, or Mike Trout?
The top 10 right fielders, based on input from folks around baseball:
The Top 10
1. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers
From Sarah Langs of MLB.com, about Betts: "He ended the year with a 93.3% contact rate on in-zone pitches, which led all hitters with at least 250 swings at in-zone pitches. He had just 18 swings and misses at in-zone pitches in the entire regular season. (Worth noting: Second on that list was DJ LeMahieu, who had a 92.9% in-zone contact rate, then Anthony Rendon and Tommy La Stella tied at 91.2% each.)"
2. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves
3. Bryce Harper, Philadelphia Phillies
Two seasons into his 13-year deal with the Phillies, his production has been excellent -- a .385 on-base percentage, an OPS+ of 134, 139 runs in 215 games. In the short 2020 season, he had more walks (49) than strikeouts (43).
4. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees
5. Michael Conforto, New York Mets
6. Whit Merrifield, Kansas City Royals
It's possible that Merrifield will move back to the infield if Nicky Lopez struggles in his effort to establish himself as the Royals' second baseman.
8. Mike Yastrzemski, San Francisco Giants
Something that jumped out to Giants staffers last year was Yastrzemski's fearlessness in two-strike counts: After the count reached no balls and two strikes, he hit .222; after the count was 1-2, his OPS was 1.033.
9. Teoscar Hernandez, Toronto Blue Jays
10. Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox
Few players have joined an organization under more challenging circumstances than Verdugo faced when he went to the Red Sox. As the anchor of the Dodgers' package for Betts, Verdugo was the centerpiece in perhaps the most unpopular Boston baseball deal since Babe Ruth was shipped off to the Yankees, and he joined the Red Sox with a well-publicized reputation as a less-than-ideal teammate. But Verdugo ingratiated himself with teammates and staff with his passion and play, and he seemed to earn the early respect of socially distant Red Sox fans. In an empty Fenway Park on Aug. 7, Verdugo had a big day -- two home runs, both over the Green Monster, for the left-handed-hitting Verdugo, and then he took a home run away from Travis Shaw in the ninth inning. "It was as if we were playing for the playoffs," one impressed staffer said. Verdugo batted .308 for the Red Sox, his energy sometimes feeling like life support for a franchise going through one of the worst seasons in its history.
Best of the rest
Wil Myers, San Diego Padres; Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros; Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies; Nicholas Castellanos, Cincinnati Reds