Fingers crossed that the 2021 MLB season will begin on time -- and that we get to see some live baseball at the ballpark this year.
As we wait, Buster Olney continues his annual ranking of the 10 best players at each position heading into the coming season based on input from industry evaluators. He begins with pitchers -- the top 10 starters and top 10 relievers. He'll follow that with infielders on Wednesday, outfielders on Thursday and teams on Friday.
Starting pitchers
Trevor Bauer sometimes struts off the mound, and Marcus Stroman can be a fist-pumping machine. By their standard, Jacob deGrom is outwardly stoic. But if you look closely, there is extraordinary intensity in deGrom's work, even when he throws a bullpen session in which the only spectators are New York Mets pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and a bullpen catcher.
If deGrom throws a pitch and it misses by an inch -- maybe even less -- deGrom will pause and glance toward the sky, the briefest pause as he reassesses what the hell just went wrong and why he just screwed up. This is the best pitcher on the planet challenging himself. "He holds himself to a very, very high standard," Hefner said.
But mostly, deGrom channels that emotion at hapless hitters, and it's as if he's a young Mike Tyson seeing the fear and defeat in the eyes of an opponent and moving in to finish the job. "Maybe killer instinct isn't the right phrase to use in this day and age," Hefner said, "but ... it's like he's thinking, 'I'm ready to pounce on this prey and not let him beat me, not let him get away.' He's fun-loving, he loves to joke around, but when it's time to work, there's a seriousness about him."
Evidently. DeGrom ascended from being a really good pitcher into a superstar in the 2018 season, and over the past three years, his production has been spectacular: a 2.10 ERA, with 628 strikeouts over 489 innings, and just 36 homers allowed in 76 starts. He's won two Cy Young Awards and finished third in another, and with an adjusted ERA+ of 188 -- better than Sandy Koufax in the last three incredible years of that Hall of Famer's career. From 1964 to 1966, Koufax had an adjusted ERA+ of 176.
Comparing the 2020 season to any prior year is folly, because the mitigating strains of last summer were so different. There was no weariness and aches that might've developed over 200 innings, but on the other hand, pitchers had to work without the adrenaline they can borrow from fans in the stands. Yankees reliever Adam Ottavino cited, as one example, the two-strike clap that grows in Yankee Stadium and in other places every time a batter is in the hole, reinforcing the defensiveness of the hitter and emotionally spurring the pitcher. That was not available to pitchers like deGrom.
But for the Mets' ace it really didn't matter. In some ways, deGrom was the perfect pitcher for a year of no fans in the stands because of his ability to focus on the crisis at hand and to overmatch hitters physically -- with his pure stuff -- and emotionally. "There's this aura about him," said Hefner. "He competes against the game, competes against himself. A lot of that other stuff doesn't matter -- fans or no fans, who's in the box, whether it's a playoff game or non-playoff game. He's thinking, 'I'm going to win today.'"
Over the past three seasons, deGrom has allowed more than three earned runs in only six of his 76 starts. In 61 of those starts, his opponents have scored two runs or fewer. He has become the model of what a lot of other pitchers want to become.
The top 10 starting pitchers, based on input from industry evaluators:
The Top 10
1. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
The dissection of any cross-section of numbers is going to reveal excellence, and here's one: The rate at which opponents swing and miss against him, which is a reflection of the pitcher's pure stuff and acumen.
2016: 10.7%
2017: 13.2%
2018: 15.1%
2019: 15.4%
2020: 21.6%
His swing-and-miss rate has more than doubled over the past five seasons. Think about that.
2. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
The Yankees right-hander started Game 1 of the AL Division Series against the Rays, and for those outside of the clubhouse, the question of whether Cole would start a possible Game 5 on short rest lingered. But for Cole and Yankees manager Aaron Boone, this was a done deal. Before Game 4, Cole walked by Boone's office and looked in with a smile that communicated everything without a single word being uttered. "Nothing needed to be said," Boone recalled. "It was [a look of], 'I know I'm pitching tomorrow.'" Cole spends a lot of time standing at the manager's end of the dugout, talking about the game, and in the midst of Game 4, Boone looked back -- and there was Cole, with the same smile.
Finally, after the Yankees won Game 4, Boone stopped Cole and said, in pure deadpan, "Hey, you're starting tomorrow," and they both laughed. Of course Cole was going to start.
Of course. Over the past three seasons, he has a 2.71 ERA, with 696 strikeouts in 485⅔ innings.
3. Shane Bieber, Cleveland Indians
With a few weeks to go in the 2020 regular season, Bieber's performance was so good that not only was he seen as a certain winner of the Cy Young Award, but he also was in the conversation for the AL MVP. But down the stretch, the smallest cracks began to develop in his starts, as hitters made their adjustments against him -- and while they struggled to hit him, they were increasingly able to drive up his pitch counts and get him out of games.
If Bieber's history holds, as you would imagine it will, then he'll probably get better at this, more efficient. As pitching coach Carl Willis noted last year, it's as if Bieber comes up with another weapon every year. He emerged from college with refined command of his fastball, improved his slider, then added a curveball, a cutter and a changeup. He led the majors with 122 strikeouts last season, whiffing 41% of the batters he faced.
4. Trevor Bauer, free agent
He had the best year of his career, and the timing could not have been better. In a winter in which few players will get nine-figure deals, Bauer is drawing interest from the Mets, the Blue Jays and others. Terry Francona, his former manager, has said of Bauer: He burns to be great. Year by year, the right-hander has improved.
5. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
His seven-year, $210 million deal is among the richest ever, and the return on investment might be the best of any megadeal free-agent signing in baseball history. Scherzer is about to enter Year 7 of that contract, and in the first six years, he's made 170 starts (remember, that's including the 60-game season of 2020), with 1,463 strikeouts in 1,118 innings, an adjusted ERA+ of 153, a 2.80 ERA, two Cy Young Awards and five top-five finishes in the Cy Young voting, and the 2019 championship. He has delivered for Washington over and over and over.
6. Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres
7. Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
8. Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
9. Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
10. Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Best of the rest
Max Fried, Atlanta Braves; Hyun-Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays; Dinelson Lamet, San Diego Padres; Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds; Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals; Mike Soroka, Atlanta Braves; Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers; Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals
ESPN's Paul Hembekides really thinks Ryu should be in the top 10, and sent along this note:
"My argument for Hyun-Jin Ryu as a top-10 pitcher is a simple one -- he thrives in preventing runs better than almost anyone. Over the last three seasons, he (2.30) and Jacob deGrom (2.10) are the only qualified pitchers with an ERA below 2.50. If you prefer ERA+, he (179) ranks second behind only deGrom (188) during that time. I wouldn't have made such an argument for Ryu after 2019, but he pitched in front of the worst defense in the AL last season (the Blue Jays netted minus-39 defensive runs saved). Further, our metrics had him among the bottom five pitchers in quality of catcher framing in 2020. And yet, despite a dreadful defense behind him and behind the plate, his adjusted ERA was 64% better than the league average."
Relief pitchers
It was just four winters ago that relievers got some of the biggest contracts of the offseason, with four closers getting significant dollars: Aroldis Chapman got $86 million from the Yankees, the Dodgers committed $80 million to Kenley Jansen, the Giants locked up Mark Melancon for $62 million, and Wade Davis nearly matched Chapman's annual rate, signing for $51 million over three years.
As one executive noted recently, it's incredible how quickly the sport has changed. Last summer, Liam Hendriks was arguably more dominant than any of those four relievers, limiting opponents to 14 hits and three walks in 25⅓ innings, before augmenting his stature with some postseason heroics. But even without the pandemic dragging the salary numbers down this winter, it seems highly unlikely Hendriks will get anything close to what Chapman, et al., were paid in the 2016-17 offseason. This reality was reinforced by the Indians' decision, in early November, to dump All-Star lefty Brad Hand after finding no takers for his $10 million 2021 contract option.
More and more, front offices view relievers as extremely short-term investments, with performance records that get more and more volatile while bearing injury risk that seems heightened by the prevailing strategy of throwing the ball as hard as you possibly can, or spinning the breaking ball over and over and over.
After speaking with club evaluators, it seems more appropriate to build this top-10 list with little regard for the pitchers' track records. Unquestionably, Chapman has been the best closer of his time, with 276 saves and 905 strikeouts in 547⅓ innings. But these days, teams pick relievers for specific situations based on the best possible matchup for today. Is Chapman the preeminent reliever of today? Probably not -- in light of how Hendriks beats hitters with his fastball and how Devin Williams confounds hitters with his power changeup.
Chapman is the best-paid reliever these days, and he is among the top 10 relievers. But he is not the best bullpen piece as we head into the 2021 season.
The Top 10
1. Liam Hendriks, free agent
2. Devin Williams, Milwaukee Brewers
He faced 100 batters, struck out 53 and allowed just eight hits, with just one home run. You could make a case he should be No. 1, based on his level of dominance last season. His array of 2020 numbers are absurdly good across the board, so it's not hard to find crazy stuff like this: With runners in scoring position, opposing hitters went 1-for-15 with eight strikeouts. In high-leverage situations, as defined by Baseball Reference, opponents were 2-for-43 with 31 strikeouts, three walks and one extra-base hit -- for a slugging percentage of 0.70.
Sarah Langs of MLB.com sent along these notes about Williams:
Highest whiff rate on single pitch type, 2020 (minimum 100 swings at pitch type):
Devin Williams changeup: 61.1%
Tyler Glasnow curveball: 52.8%
Shane Bieber knuckle curve: 51.5%
Max Scherzer slider: 50.8%
Dylan Bundy slider: 50.0%
Lowest opponent batting average on pitch type, 2020 (minimum 50 PAs ending on pitch type):
Devin Williams changeup: .032
Zach Plesac slider: .069
Cristian Javier slider: .075
Michael Lorenzen 4-seamer: .075
Trevor Bauer slider: .075
3. Josh Hader, Milwaukee Brewers
4. Nick Anderson, Tampa Bay Rays
5. Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
6. Zack Britton, New York Yankees
7. Tyler Duffey, Minnesota Twins
8. Raisel Iglesias, Los Angeles Angels
9. James Karinchak, Cleveland Indians
10. Drew Pomeranz, San Diego Padres
Best of the rest
Alex Colome, free agent; Trevor May, New York Mets; Evan Marshall, Chicago White Sox; Diego Castillo, Tampa Bay Rays; Edwin Diaz, New York Mets; Brad Hand, free agent; Jake Diekman, Oakland A's