After a slow start to the offseason, the San Diego Padres have ignited the hot stove with a pair of blockbuster deals for starting pitchers. First, San Diego acquired 2018 AL Cy Young winner Blake Snell for prospects from the Tampa Bay Rays. Then the Padres turned around and added 2020 NL Cy Young runner-up Yu Darvish along with catcher Victor Caratini for right-hander Zach Davies and four young prospects in a blockbuster deal with the now-rebuilding Chicago Cubs. As if that wasn't enough, San Diego also squeezed time for a free-agent signing by adding Korean infielder Ha-seong Kim.
Is San Diego's holiday spree enough to catapult the Padres past the Los Angeles Dodgers as MLB's team to beat? Will the moves be the biggest splash any team makes this winter? And what should the Cubs do next now that they have traded away their ace? We enlisted ESPN baseball experts Bradford Doolittle, Jesse Rogers and David Schoenfield to answer these questions and more.
Have the Padres passed the Dodgers as the team to beat in the NL (and all of MLB) next season?
Doolittle: No, but that's a very high bar. The Dodgers are a monster but the Padres have positioned themselves, along with the Braves, as the most likely NL teams to take advantage of an L.A. down season.
Rogers: Team to beat is a little strong, but they see a window right now. It includes the inevitable hangover for the Dodgers, which doesn't just speak to winning the championship in a grinding 2020 season. Remember, Los Angeles has been on this mission for quite some time. The 'hangover' is years in the making. That doesn't mean the Dodgers are going to lie down, but either way the moves the Padres are making nearly assures them another playoff appearance, especially in an expanded playoff situation -- which may or may not be coming. Something became obvious this past October, considering there were multiple 'bullpen games' in the playoffs: Three top pitchers isn't enough. You need four, especially with innings pitched limited in 2020. The Padres are fortifying on top of fortifying.
Schoenfield: It's fun, it's exciting and I would love to move to San Diego and become a Padres season-ticket holder and eat lots of fish tacos, but the Dodgers are still the team to beat as well as the deepest and most talented. While Blake Snell and Yu Darvish are obviously huge acquisitions -- especially if Snell can approach his 2018 level and Darvish stays at the level he has been at since the second half of 2019 -- keep in mind that the Dodgers won the division by six games in the shortened season. Also keep in mind that several Padres are due for regression or have to prove they can be as good again, namely Dinelson Lamet (2.09 ERA), Wil Myers (159 OPS+), Eric Hosmer (131 OPS+) and Jake Cronenworth (128 OPS+). Heck, even Manny Machado is coming off the best OPS of his career, 125 points higher than his career average.
We've heard all winter that the Mets were going to be the most active team, but did the Padres just clinch '2020-21 offseason champs?'
Doolittle: We should table that discussion as long as the top half-dozen free agents are unsigned and the trade market has only begun to simmer. But it seems unlikely that the Pads will earn anything but passing grades for A.J. Preller's win-now endeavor that really began with the 2020 trade deadline.
Rogers: Yes. Even the sleeper teams were considered more like the Giants and the Blue Jays, but once again Preller steals the headlines. It's a reminder of midseason 2014, when Billy Beane traded for Jon Lester, Jason Hammel and Jeff Samardzija. Just when you thought he was done, he pulled off one more deal. That's Preller right now.
Schoenfield: Ask the 2019 Phillies what winning the offseason gets you. Look, it's hard to beat Snell and Darvish, but the Mets still have days on the calendar and money in Steve Cohen's wallet. (Do you think he actually carries a wallet with him? Like, when he goes to Subway, does he pull a $20 out of his wallet or does he just use an app on his phone?) The Mets could still land two of Trevor Bauer, George Springer and DJ LeMahieu and that might make them offseason champs.
What should the Cubs do from here after trading away Yu Darvish?
Doolittle: Fold. ... Seriously, though, you know which team has had the best offseason in the NL Central? The Brewers, and only because they haven't yet traded Josh Hader. The Cubs should have, at the very least, stood pat this winter in hopes of building trade value with some of their hitters who had bad seasons. But if they aren't going to try, then trading away everyone else for pennies makes for a logical progression.
Rogers: Calculate when is the right time to move Craig Kimbrel and Kris Bryant. Either now or at the July deadline. Then, come this spring they need to sign Javy Baez to a long-term deal and build around him while Anthony Rizzo should get a new contract in July, after a solid first half of the season. Those moves could absolutely get the Cubs contending for the division again as soon as 2022.
Schoenfield: The player who would bring the most back in value at this point is Kyle Hendricks since he's signed through 2023 (with a 2024 option) at a reasonable rate, but I don't expect a complete reboot here, not when the rest of the division is so weak. It might take only 79 wins to win the Central and you can do that with Hendricks, Javier Baez and Kris Bryant.
What move should L.A. make to respond to San Diego's shopping spree?
Doolittle: Stifle yawns, to begin with, as they wait for the marketplace to find its level. The Dodgers are not in an arms race with the Padres. They are the electric rabbit way out in front of the panting greyhounds chasing them. Given the snail's pace of the non-San Diego offseason, the Dodgers can more than afford to wait on the few free agents who are a clear upgrade to see if they want to trump the market's best offer. And they can pluck any Sonny Gray types that they value from teams desperate to bail on payroll commitments. You're in a good place when doing nothing is a perfectly viable option.
Rogers: Trade for Bryant. They have an opening at third base and they'll be getting a motivated player in his walk year. Plus, after winning the World Series, it's not a bad thing to change the mix a little in the clubhouse. After that, they should do what they always do, keep winning and let the chips fall where they may next October. They're playing with house money. No one repeats -- but they could.
Schoenfield: Agree here with Brad -- they don't have to do anything and they won't feel pressured into some kind of outlandish trade or free-agent signing just to keep up with the Padres. That said, they do need a third baseman, whether that's re-signing Justin Turner or doing something more creative (signing DJ LeMahieu, trading for Francisco Lindor and playing Corey Seager at third, or trading for Nolan Arenado, although I don't think that's a move the Dodgers make given the money potentially left on Arenado's contract).
What does Darvish and Snell going to the Padres mean for Trevor Bauer and the rest of the free-agent market?
Doolittle: One would think that it takes the Padres out of the mix, though Preller's enthusiasm can trend toward the unbounded once he starts making moves. Overall though, it's probably of little impact, and if there are tangible consequences for Bauer in particular, they are positive. The options out there to acquire a front-of-the-rotation starter have dwindled by two, but the number of teams hunting for such a creature have dwindled by only one.
Rogers: It does thin the market a little but it still won't take away from their payday. Lets face it, one team is being eliminated. Bauer will get his. So will George Springer and J.T. Realmuto, but middle-tier guys are always in peril. But the Padres' moves shouldn't impact Bauer all that much.
Schoenfield: The Padres were never going to be the biggest bidder on a long-term contract, not with their market size on top of the Machado contract and the desire to eventually pay Fernando Tatis Jr. So I don't think it changes much for Bauer. He can still get a huge one-year deal if he wants to do that or, more likely, a long-term offer from the Mets, Angels or whomever else.
Acquiring Blake Snell and Yu Darvish (and Ha-seong Kim) on the same day is the biggest hot stove splash since ...?
Doolittle: Recalls the two-day stretch in January of 2018 when the Brewers traded for Christian Yelich, then followed up by signing Lorenzo Cain. As a Royals fan, it also reminds me of the three-day stretch when Kansas City signed Wally Joyner and traded Bret Saberhagen to the Mets. That was supposed to be splashy, though it turned out there was no water in the pool.
Schoenfield: I thought of the 2009 Yankees, when they signed CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett, but that happened over a few weeks (Burnett signed Dec. 12, Sabathia on Dec. 20 and Teixeira on Jan. 6). The 2014 Yankees signed Brian McCann on Dec. 3, Jacoby Ellsbury and Hiroki Kuroda on Dec. 7 (although Kuroda was a re-signing), Carlos Beltran a couple weeks after that and then Masahiro Tanaka in January. But for a busy week, let's go with the 2011 Marlins, who signed Heath Bell (coming off three straight 40-save seasons), Jose Reyes (coming off a .337 season and batting title) and Mark Buehrle (coming off 3.8-WAR season) in five days at the winter meetings.