Santa Claus may have been a couple of days late, but he finally gave baseball fans a gift: A major MLB trade to discuss and debate.
The Tampa Bay Rays will be sending 2018 Cy Young winner Blake Snell to the San Diego Padres for pitcher Luis Patino, catcher Francisco Mejia and prospects Cole Wilcox and Blake Hunt. Maybe it's not quite a true blockbuster given that Snell's big season came two years ago and Patino and Mejia are still more prospect than proven, but it's about as blockbuster as trades go these days.
This one even comes with a little controversy mixed in given that in Snell's final appearance for the Rays -- the team that drafted him in 2011 -- manager Kevin Cash yanked him in the sixth inning against the Dodgers while Snell was pitching a dominant two-hit shutout during Game 6 of the World Series. While this trade is more about the Rays doing what they often do, trading a veteran player for lower-salaried youngsters, the Game 6 decision will hang over the franchise into the 2021 season.
It's also a fascinating trade because it has a chance to be a huge win-win trade for both clubs -- or potentially a huge loss for one side. This is about as risky a deal as general managers make these days as Snell is still under team control for three more seasons at a reasonable salary and possesses arguably the best pure stuff of any left-hander in the game, but also comes with some concerns about his durability.
The Rays, however, get three high-end talents in return. Patino, a flame-throwing 21-year-old right-hander who Kiley McDaniel ranked as the No. 11 prospect in the game entering 2020, debuted for the Padres in 2020. He retains his rookie status for 2021. Mejia is still just 25 and once ranked as the top catching prospect in baseball a few years ago, although the Padres soured on him after he started 3-for-38 in 2020 and he received just one at-bat in September. Wilcox, the team's third-round pick in 2020 out of Georgia as a draft-eligible sophomore, slid out of the first round only because of his bonus demands, but the Padres signed him for a third-round record $3.3 million.
While Mejia's potential with the bat isn't as promising as it once appeared, keep in mind he's still young, especially for a catcher. Also, consider that the Rays would gladly take even something close to league average production since their catchers hit .176/.265/.330 in 2020 and .210/.281/.365 in 2019.
For the Padres, one thing you can't deny about general manager A.J. Preller is that he's not afraid to go big. He has signed Eric Hosmer and Manny Machado to big free-agent contracts, he turned over a playoff roster at the trade deadline in 2020 to bring in eight new players, and instead of hoarding prospects from the Padres' deep farm system, he has decided to swing deals for proven major leaguers.
One of those deals at the deadline brought in Mike Clevinger from Cleveland, but Clevinger made just four starts, and then one abbreviated one in the postseason, before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He'll miss the 2021 season, creating the need to bring in another veteran starter to slot alongside 2020 breakout star Dinelson Lamet, Zach Davies and Chris Paddack. MacKenzie Gore, arguably the top pitching prospect in the game, should be ready for the majors, while Adrian Morejon and Joey Lucchesi provide depth (with Clevinger returning in 2022). The Padres were believed to be interested in Trevor Bauer, but Snell's contract certainly fits better in the Padres' payroll as he makes $11.1 million, $13.1 million and $16.6 million the next three seasons.
The ultimate hope, of course, is that Snell can stare down the Dodgers in a potential postseason rematch. While the Dodgers will remain the heavy favorite again in the National League, it's also clear that the Dodgers, Padres and Braves have clearly separated themselves at the moment from the rest of their NL rivals. I love that Preller isn't willing to concede anything here and is giving his team the opportunity to go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers to win the division.
A general manager once told me the most important thing he can do is properly evaluate his organization's own talent (ask the White Sox about Fernando Tatis Jr.). Early in his career with the Padres, Preller made some mistakes here, trading away Trea Turner and Max Fried. He did rebuild the farm system to where it ranked as perhaps the best in the game, but the Clevinger and Snell trades have also depleted some of that depth. Patino and outfielder Taylor Trammell (who went to Seattle in a deal for catcher Austin Nola) were top-100 prospects entering 2020, while shortstop Gabriel Arias and left-handed pitcher Joey Cantillo, part of the Clevinger trade, are also highly regarded. The team's big league and 40-man depth has also been impacted with Mejia, Josh Naylor, Cal Quantrill, Austin Hedges, Ty France, Luis Torrens and Andres Munoz all traded since August.
Even prospects like Owen Miller and Hudson Potts would be top 10 in many systems. That's a lot of usable talent to trade for a pitcher who won't pitch in 2021, a pitcher with really just one dominant season and a catcher in Nola whom the Mariners had signed as a minor league free agent just two years ago. But the Padres are trying to win now and that's what you do.
Still, the farm system does feature Gore and CJ Abrams, who are top-10 overall prospects. While Preller has now traded away four catchers -- Mejia, Hedges, Torrens and Hunt -- in a span of months, Luis Campusano is one of the best catching prospects in the minors and on the 40-man roster. (Although his future is cloudy after he was arrested in Georgia in the offseason for felony marijuana possession after he was found with 79 grams.) Lefty Ryan Weather and 2020 first-rounder Robert Hassell are also potential top-100 overall prospects.
For Preller, the gamble is that Snell can pitch 180 innings at a high level, something he has done just once. Cash removed him from that World Series start due to history of tiring the third time through the order, meaning he also has to prove he can be a seven-inning starter and not just a five-and-done guy. There is also the risk that, like Turner and Fried, Patino, Mejia and Wilcox become stars.
The risk for the Rays is that none of them do, but it's easy to understand why Erik Neander made this trade as Snell was the one highly paid player on their roster with trade value. Patino has top-of-the-rotation upside and will certainly get a chance to be in the Opening Day rotation, given the Rays are now without Snell and Charlie Morton, who signed with the Braves. There's also some risk Patino ends up in the bullpen despite his high prospect ranking. While he operates in the mid-90s with his fastball and touched 99 as a starter in the minors in 2019, his slider is his only true swing-and-miss offering right now. He's going to have to improve his changeup to give him another weapon against lefties. (In the minors in 2019, right-handed batters hit .163 against him while lefties hit .262.)
Mejia also gives the Rays a second catcher after they non-tendered Mike Zunino and then re-signed him. Mejia's calling card coming up through the minors was his bat from both sides of the plate, but he's hit just .225/.282/.386 so far in 362 major league plate appearances. A terrific contact hitter in the minors, Mejia's aggressive approach has hurt him in the big leagues, and he has also struggled so far in winter ball, hitting .164 in 18 games. The bat has to produce because the defense is shaky. He has a strong arm, but the rest of his defensive game needs work.
Wilcox could easily end up the best player in this trade for the Rays. A potential first-rounder coming out of high school, Wilcox's bonus demands instead steered him to Georgia, where he had a so-so freshman season. In four starts as a sophomore before COVID-19 ended the season, he improved his command (32-2 strikeout-walk ratio) and showcased some of the best pure stuff in the draft, with a mid-90s fastball that hit triple digits on occasion, a slider that flashed plus at times and a changeup that also showed potential. Scouts worried about his delivery and some believed he would eventually end up a reliever. Big bonus demands dropped him out of the first round and the Padres happily took him with the 80th pick.
The risk for the Rays? The rotation is now dangerously thin. Even Patino hardly looked big league ready during his stint in the San Diego bullpen, walking 14 in 17.1 innings. Behind Tyler Glasnow, the Rays have Ryan Yarbrough, Michael Wacha, Josh Fleming, Trevor Richards and Patino, with Brendan McKay coming off shoulder surgery and perhaps Brent Honeywell, who hasn't pitched since 2017 after a series of injuries. That hardly feels like a playoff rotation, and for a team that was built around the big three of Snell, Glasnow and Morton, the pitching staff is suddenly much less intimidating. Sure, the bullpen is deep, but it was much easier to ride the bullpen in a 60-game season with extra roster space than it will be over 162 games. Neander will need at least one of these prospects to develop into a star, or three of the four to become solid contributors, or it could end up as a big misfire.
In the end, I like this deal for both teams, knowing it might not necessarily work out for both teams. Now, can we fast-forward to October and get Snell on the mound against the Dodgers ... pitching a two-hit shutout in Game 6 of the NLCS and nursing a 1-0 lead against Clayton Kershaw in the sixth inning? What do you do, Jayce Tingler?