If 2015 feels like a long time ago, it must feel like an entire lifetime to Pittsburgh Pirates fans. Pittsburgh won 98 games that season and made the playoffs for a third straight time, the Pirates were Baseball America's organization of the year, Travis Sawchik was writing a book called "Big Data Baseball" about how the Pirates were leading the analytics revolution, and the farm system was pretty solid, led by Tyler Glasnow, Austin Meadows and Josh Bell.
Glasnow and Meadows were traded to the Tampa Bay Rays back in 2018 in a much-savaged trade for Chris Archer, the Pirates plummeted to 93 losses in 2019 and then finished with the worst record in the majors in 2020. Now Bell is gone as well, traded to the Nationals for pitchers Wil Crowe, who debuted in the majors in 2020, and Eddy Yean, a 19-year-old who pitched in rookie ball in 2018.
Hey, on the bright side, maybe this frees up money for the Pirates to go after Trevor Bauer, George Springer and J.T. Realmuto.
(Sorry, Pirates fans, we feel your pain. At least your ballpark is a wonderful place to watch a baseball game.)
It's no surprise that the Pirates traded Bell. He has two seasons left until he's eligible for free agency -- two seasons in which the Pirates are extremely unlikely to be competitive enough to contend for a playoff race, assuming MLB doesn't expand the playoffs to 24 teams or something. Bell is also due to make an estimated $6 million in arbitration in 2021, so trading his salary -- the second highest on the team to Gregory Polanco's $11.6 million -- is part of the equation as well.
If there's a minor surprise to trading him now, it's that they could have waited to see whether Bell rebuilt some of his value in 2021, given he followed up his All-Star season in 2019 (.277/.367/.569) with a rough 2020 (.226/.305/.364). However, considering the unknown status of the 2021 season, the Pirates clearly decided they didn't want to risk Bell repeating his 2020 production, which would diminish his trade value even more.
What are the Nationals getting? It's hard to know. Even his big season in 2019 was driven by a monster May, when he hit .390 with 12 home runs, 12 doubles and 31 RBIs. Overall, he hit .302/.376/.648 with 27 home runs and 84 RBIs in 88 games in the first half, starting the All-Star Game as the DH. In the second half, he dropped off to .233/.351/.429 with 10 home runs in 55 games.
Early in his career, Bell had trouble getting the ball in the air enough to take advantage of his huge raw power. In 2019, with the help of some offseason changes to his swing (from both sides of the plate, as Bell is a switch-hitter) he achieved a more optimal launch angle and increased his home run production from 12 to 37. In 2020, however, it never clicked. He hit more ground balls than ever (56.4%, up 12%) and swung and missed more than ever. The player who had mashed 12 doubles in one month hit just three in 57 games.
"With regards to my groundball rate, I just feel like I wasn't on time," Bell told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette late in the season. "If I'm missing balls pull side on the ground, that means I was beat. That's just the way it is."
Jason Mackey's Post-Gazette story also reported that Bell missed in-game video:
The use of in-game video was prohibited this season after the Astros were caught abusing it, and Bell said that hindered his ability to make adjustments on the fly. Much of what Bell and hitting coach Rick Eckstein did in 2019 revolved around detecting certain "cues" using replay, but that wasn't possible this year.
"Without those cues I kind of felt like it was definitely tough baseball," Bell said.
For the Nationals, it's a worthy gamble and relatively inexpensive way to upgrade first base. While Ryan Zimmerman intends to play in 2021 after sitting out 2020, he's basically a platoon bat against left-handers at best (and is a free agent at the moment). Howie Kendrick just announced his retirement, but just last week general manager Mike Rizzo was talking about potentially using Kendrick again at first base.
"You could kind of split the position up like we've done at catcher for the last couple years, successfully, and attack the first base position that way," Rizzo said on a Zoom call with reporters. "Or go out and get yourself a legitimate 158-game, everyday first baseman and do it that way. It depends on the supply and the demand of that position and the players with those skill sets."
No doubt that Kendrick's retirement pushed Rizzo into acquiring a regular at first base and ditch the timeshare the Nationals have used there the past few seasons. It's also a sign that the Nationals will be going all-in to chase a playoff spot. The offense fell from 5.39 runs per game (second in the NL) to 4.88, but too much of the offense was just Juan Soto and Trea Turner. They could still look to upgrade at catcher, which is why they are rumored to be interested in Realmuto, and third base if they don't want to count on Carter Kieboom, who hit .202 without a home run in 99 at-bats in 2020. Look for more deals from Rizzo to strengthen the lineup (and perhaps add a couple of relievers and a back-end starter).
As for the Pirates, they will apparently attempt to field a major league team in 2021, although you have to think Joe Musgrove (estimated $3.75 million salary) and Adam Frazier ($4 million) are next on the trade block. Crowe was the Nationals' second-round pick in 2017 out of South Carolina. He gave up 13 runs, eight walks and five home runs in 8.1 innings during his three-start debut and projects as a possible back-end starter.
Yean may actually be the guy to watch, a top-10 prospect for the Nationals with more upside thanks to a fastball that was hitting 97 in 2019. Like the Pirates, however, he will hopefully be more interesting in three or four years.