In the span of 24 hours, the San Diego Padres have rebuilt a rotation that contributed only 15 of their 52 postseason innings in 2020, not to mention lost ace and midseason acquisition Mike Clevinger to Tommy John surgery in mid-November.
Hours after acquiring Blake Snell from the Tampa Bay Rays, the Padres on Monday agreed to a trade with the Chicago Cubs for Yu Darvish, sending starting pitcher Zach Davies and four prospects, none of which were widely considered top-five prospects in the Padres' system, to the Cubs in exchange for Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini. In short work, that gave the Padres one of the game's strongest rotations, with Darvish and Snell joined by Dinelson Lamet, Chris Paddack and potentially the game's top prospects in MacKenzie Gore for 2021, with Clevinger probably rejoining that mix for 2022.
The strengthening of the Padres' rotation should be beneficial to the group, as the team will no longer need to piece together "bullpen days" as frequently -- they did that eight times in the regular season and twice in six postseason games. This means they can save more of their bullpen arms for more critical junctures in the game, elevating those relievers' chances for relief wins and saves, and improving the starters' chances of having their own wins nailed down due to better-quality relief behind them. The impact might be slight, but considering the magnitude of these deals, and the fact that the only present pitching commodity lost in trade was prospect Luis Patino, who contributed only 20 innings combined between the regular season and postseason in 2020, there's a good chance we'll immediately notice the benefits.
That's not to say that Darvish's fantasy value is going to improve with the Padres. In fact, if we're comparing it with his 2020, which saw him earn his highest single-year Player Rater finishes -- second among starting pitchers and 10th overall -- then no, there's really minimal chance of that at all. Darvish's 2020 saw him continuing the trends of polished control he exhibited in the final three months of 2019; since July 1 of that year he had the majors' sixth-best ERA (2.52), fourth-best WHIP (0.89), fifth-most strikeouts (217) and third-best walk rate (3.3% of batters faced). He was one of the game's most effective pitchers during that roughly 140-team-game time span.
In San Diego, Darvish's chances of repeating, or at least approaching, that performance improve, even if only slightly. Petco Park, while not the pitchers' heaven it was before the right- and right-center-field fences were moved in twice since its opening, remains one of the more pitching-friendly environments in the game. It had a bottom-10 -- lower numbers meaning favoring the pitcher -- park factor in terms of runs scored and home runs from 2015 to '19, compared to Wrigley Field's near-league-average rankings in either during that same period, and that makes sense, considering Petco's power alleys are considerably deeper and it has quite a bit more fair and foul territory within the field of play. If the concern about Darvish's 2021 statistics correcting what went right in 2020 center upon the 8.8% home run/fly ball rate, which was well beneath his 13.3% career number, then this was a great move as far as alleviating that.
Darvish was already my No. 6 starting pitcher and No. 20 player overall before the trade, so there's not much room for moving up -- though every spot earned in that tier is substantially more meaningful than in the lower levels. With the move, he's now my No. 5 starter, leaping ahead of Lucas Giolito, and No. 18 overall, moving in front of new teammate Manny Machado.
As for Davies, his move from San Diego to Chicago has the opposite effect, taking him from a more to less favorable pitching environment, though Wrigley is far from a hitters' heaven. Its variable weather, the wind especially, presents one of the problems, and that could be an issue for a pitcher who just set career bests with a 78.2% rate stranding runners and .250 BABIP. Davies was always going to have a difficult time repeating his 2020 over a full 162-game schedule, but thanks in large part to a changeup that he has relied on much more and has performed like one of the game's best from 2019 to '20, he should still be able to perform like a standard-mixed asset. Nevertheless, he dropped from my No. 57 starting pitcher to No. 63 as a result of the trade, due to the increasing concern about his ERA.
Caratini has been a more interesting name in fantasy while the National League has used the designated hitter, and in leagues that require two catchers, neither of which is guaranteed to be the case in 2021 (whether the NL or your own league's settings). In San Diego, he's unlikely to unseat Austin Nola for the starting job, and the team retained top prospect Luis Campusano, so Caratini should remain a mere decent-hitting, part-timer. Frankly, the biggest impact of Caratini's inclusion is that he can continue to serve as Darvish's personal catcher, having caught all 26 of the right-hander's starts since the aforementioned July 1, 2019, date. He's otherwise an end-game pick to fill your No. 2 catcher spot (where applicable).