The most intriguing 2021 number to watch for new San Diego Padres left-hander Blake Snell is going to be innings pitched. The last time we saw Snell on a mound, quite famously in fact, was when Tampa Bay Rays manager Kevin Cash pulled him from Game 6 of the World Series in the sixth inning, with a lead and to his and, well, most everyone's surprise and dismay. That was no outlier; Snell did not pitch into the seventh inning of any outing in 2020, and even in his Cy Young Award season of 2018, he went a mere 180 2/3 innings over 31 starts Is this because Snell deserved this treatment, or were the Rays too cautious? Whether the Padres permit Snell to try to go deeper into games will be a bit fascinating, but also help clarify his fantasy baseball value.
After all, wins remain a fantasy statistic for most of us, for better or worse, and while Snell won 21 games in 2018, and excelled at run prevention and missing bats, his deployment in future seasons could be as intriguing as how he pitches. Snell leaves an extreme pitcher's park for one that used to be, but one could also note a greater chance for success by leaving the tough AL East. Walk rate and efficiency remain a concern, and a strong reason why this is a low-volume hurler, even in his award-winning campaign. His two seasons since then tell us little, really. Snell was unlucky in 2019, with an ERA roughly a run higher than his FIP. The script flipped in the shortened 2020 campaign, as he outpitched his metrics.
Thanks to the strikeouts mostly, Snell deserved placement as a top-20 starting pitcher for fantasy prior to this trade and little changes now, though I do have concerns he can change his statistical narrative. Expecting Snell suddenly to hit 200 innings in a season seems like folly. One could surmise the Padres will score more runs for him, allow him to pitch deeper into games and thus there should be more victories, but perhaps at a run prevention cost. Eh, I think we likely see more of the same, a strikeout option with an ERA in the 3.30-3.50 range. That is fine, but we should view the Cy Young season as magically aberrant.
While it is never too late to become more of a strike thrower, let us assume this is what Snell is and there will be many walks and strikeouts in his future. He would do well to curtail the home runs, as hitters notably had little trouble barreling and lifting his fastball. Prorate his 10 home runs in 50 innings for a full season and it is a problem for sure. Snell is 28 and has tossed a mere 556 innings over five seasons, so he is certainly not overworked, but I would keep expectations in check. His three-true-outcome ways offer much variability in the ERA department and he really has helped fantasy managers in WHIP and wins only since 2018.
Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays receive young right-hander Luis Patino and others in return, a tantalizing mix of talent for the organization and fantasy managers. In fact, one could easily see a scenario in which Patino is more valuable than Snell, if not in the relative short term, then soon after. Patino, 21, is of slight build but he touches 100 MPH on his four-seam fastball, with two other plus off-speed offerings. I watched him overpower Los Angeles Angels outfielder Jo Adell and others with easy 98 MPH heat in the 2019 Futures Game in Cleveland and thinking that a potential ace looms. It still does.
Yeah, the Padres rushed him to their big league bullpen in 2020 so those questionable numbers over a mere 17 1/3 innings tell us nothing. Forget they happened. Yes, walks can be a problem for him as well, but many of us believe the Rays get the most out of their pitchers, for skills and role. Patino could need more minor league seasoning -- he skipped Triple-A -- and the organization has enough depth and creativity to give him time, but those in dynasty formats should be excited about the possibilities in Tampa Bay. Snell for Patino in a dynasty format actually makes reasonable sense.
The Rays also receive a pair of young catchers but the well-traveled Francisco Mejia is the interesting one for now, pairing up with veteran Mike Zunino. Mejia switch-hits and with proper playing time, there is an obvious path to becoming a top-10 catching option in fantasy, but I will no longer expect it. Mejia has hit .225 over parts of four big league seasons, with little plate discipline or promise of power, and exit velocity numbers hardly excite. Perhaps the Rays unlock the secrets of him becoming a .280 hitter with double-digit home run pop, and one could see them using him at other positions to embrace his versatility. Mejia was a bat-first prospect that played some third base and outfield as well. I would take a chance in multi-catcher leagues late, but hardly presume a star soon emerges.