Just how pitching-friendly is the Rangers' new home, Globe Life Field?
The answer to the question has a bearing on Lance Lynn's 2021 fantasy stock, especially after the right-hander was traded to the White Sox, who call one of the game's more homer-friendly ballparks their home. Whether the 60-game sample in 2020 has anywhere near the relevance of past years' park factors is the crux of this debate, but seeing as Globe Life Field has only been in existence for the length of that 60-game schedule, we're pressed to pass judgment nevertheless.
My take: Not much should change for Lynn, certainly not in my rankings, where he was previously my No. 17 starting pitcher, and following the deal, he's still just that: 17th.
There's little doubt that Lynn, who has been a bit more fly ball-oriented pitcher since making critical, necessary adjustments late in the 2018 season as well as during the subsequent offseason, will be at risk for a greater home run total with his new team. Chicago's Guaranteed Rate Field saw the sixth-largest home run factor from 2015-19 (1.13, meaning that it inflated home runs by 13% during that time), and it inflated homers by more than 20% in 2020. Texas' Globe Life Field, meanwhile, saw a 0.57 home run factor in 2020, using ESPN's data, and 0.86 using data from the Bill James Handbook. Globe Life Field, however, had a 0.80 runs scored factor using ESPN's data and 1.00 using the Bill James Handbook, which means that it's not far off in that department from Guaranteed Rate Field's 0.99 number from 2015-19.
Drawing back to those adjustments, Lynn began leaning more on his four-seam fastball and cutter -- sometimes classified by sites as a slider -- while pitching up in the zone more frequently, and he enjoyed an uptick in velocity on said fastball. Those spawned an increase in his swinging-strike rate, as he has posted 14.0% and 12.6% rates in 2019 and 2020, with those the best single-season rates of his career. Lynn has effectively served one of the more underrated pitchers in the game the past two-plus years, but as the No. 2 starter for a competitive White Sox team, he'll now get the attention he deserves, not to mention the run support that could grant him 18 or more wins.
I'd liken Lynn's move to a lower-tier version of Gerrit Cole's from Houston's Minute Maid Park to New York's Yankee Stadium following the 2019 season, where the most tangible change was Cole's home run per nine innings rate rising from 1.2 (2019) to 1.7 (2020). Cole had no problem remaining one of baseball's five most productive pitchers for fantasy last season, just as Lynn shouldn't have any problem remaining one of the game's 20 most productive starting pitchers in 2021. Along with Cole, by the way, Lynn was one of six pitchers to manage a top-20 starting pitcher finish on our Player Rater in each of the past two seasons (also Shane Bieber, Jacob deGrom, Clayton Kershaw and new rotation-mate Lucas Giolito).
Coming Texas' way are Dane Dunning, who performed as a top-40 fantasy starting pitcher in September, and left-handed starting pitcher Avery Weems, who hasn't been highly ranked in prospect lists but had a solid 14 starts of a 2.09 ERA in rookie ball in 2019. Dunning's inclusion in the trade is a plus for his fantasy value, being that he'll benefit from going from one of the game's most homer-friendly environments to what should be one of the game's worst for homers, not to mention that the Rangers are more likely to slot him into their rotation and grant him maximum patience as he adjusts. Dunning's sinker performed well during his seven big-league starts in 2020, should help him maintain a good-if-not-great ground ball rate that should further minimize damage against him, and even the slightest improvement with his changeup could balance his righty/lefty splits and make him a viable shallow-mixed pitcher.
That doesn't mean Dunning is a lock to be selected in ESPN leagues, but he's a certain stash who is in a better position to contribute sooner. He was my No. 65 starting pitcher before the trade, and while this won't move him up more than a spot or two, I feel a lot more confident about it knowing that he's more likely locked in as a big-league starter.