It was not a very eventful week in the MLB offseason, and with the holiday season ramping up this week and next, we could have more of the same.
But that doesn't mean MLB insider Jeff Passan doesn't have his finger on the pulse of whatever news is out there. Here are five things he's hearing:
1. Week 8 of free agency began Sunday with less than $200 million committed across the sport, every top player still available and no sign of the dam breaking anytime soon. It has become clear that barring some reverse-Scrooge action by a munificent owner, Trevor Bauer, DJ LeMahieu, J.T. Realmuto and George Springer -- the Mount Rushmore of this free-agent class -- will go into the new year unemployed. The staring contest between teams and the available elite players hasn't yet reached the eye-watering stage; each side is locked in and ready for this thing to go a while, particularly with no sense of when the 2021 season actually will begin. And as interesting as the markets are for Bauer, LeMahieu and Realmuto, Springer might be the most fascinating of all because of the teams vying for his services: the New York Mets and Toronto Blue Jays. There are others, too, but executives believe this is a two-team race between the duo seen as the likely biggest spenders this winter.
Certainly this benefits Springer; bidding wars these days are few and far between. But Springer also understands that there are scenarios in which both teams go in another direction. The Blue Jays, sources said, have emerged as significant players in the LeMahieu sweepstakes -- perhaps the biggest threat to him re-signing with the New York Yankees, with whom a significant gap remains. The Mets also have expressed interest in LeMahieu. New York is seen by a number of executives as the best landing spot for Bauer. Both the Mets and Jays are seen as potential trade targets for Francisco Lindor, as well, though Toronto is the likelier partner. And as Joel Sherman suggested in the New York Post, the idea of the Mets staying out of the high-end market altogether and building depth before the monster free-agent class of 2021-22 isn't far-fetched.
Wherever Springer (and Bauer and LeMahieu and Realmuto for that matter) winds up, it won't be for some paltry sum. Even if the market is slow, one thing that hasn't changed about free agency is that the best players always get paid and paid handsomely.
2. The aggressiveness of the Blue Jays, and to a lesser extent the Mets, combined with the market's silence could leave an impression that they're the only two teams willing to dish out big money this winter. That's not the case. Teams, sources said, are simply being strategic with their approaches, cognizant that the uncertainty of the season allows them such a delay. Players' frustration with that approach is perfectly understandable and adds to the undercurrent of animus between the sides, even with a number of deals -- James McCann, Mike Minor, Carlos Santana, Robbie Ray, Adam Eaton and Anthony DeSclafani -- seen as player-friendly.
The Nationals' interest in Realmuto follows their template of building around stars. Minnesota, sources said, is expected to be active. Boston might not be in on the big names, but the Red Sox are players in the next tier. The Braves probably have one more move to make. The Dodgers need a third baseman -- and, if Bauer's market collapses, might be in on a short-term deal. The Astros might be the next team to sign a player; they were aggressive in the past week across various parts of the market, including relief pitchers, according to sources.
The two mysteries: the Los Angeles Angels and the Philadelphia Phillies. So far, the Angels have value-shopped. They're in the starting-pitcher market. But Bauer? The last time they spent big on a pitcher was in 2012 on C.J. Wilson's five-year, $77.5 million deal. Over that time, he produced 5.7 wins above replacement. Since hiring Dave Dombrowski as president of baseball operations, the Phillies have suggested they do not have significant money to spend, according to sources -- unless they re-sign Realmuto. Should he go elsewhere, the money earmarked for him might not wind up in the pockets of other free agents.
3. Here's one team that isn't spending: the Cincinnati Reds. The first sign was Sonny Gray -- who is locked in at a very club-friendly $20 million over the next two years with a $12 million option for 2023 -- hitting the trade market. Non-tendering Archie Bradley and offloading Raisel Iglesias -- their eighth- and ninth-inning guys -- was another. Now, Cincinnati has considered trading third baseman Eugenio Suarez, sources said, and gauged interest in Mike Moustakas, who's entering the second season of a four-year deal. Though the National League Central is nobody's idea of a meat grinder, the idea of losing Bauer, Bradley, Iglesias and perhaps other central figures and remaining a playoff contender without spending some money doesn't square.
4. Conventional wisdom inside baseball is that Colorado Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado isn't going anywhere. He's owed $199 million over the next six seasons, and the Rockies are not the sort of franchise that's inclined to eat tens of millions of dollars to pay down a contract that's only 2 years old. While a straight-up deal might be a stretch, multiple teams, sources said, have considered the possibility of serving as a way station for Arenado in a potential deal. Here's how it would work: The team would take a player it believes has an onerous contract and deal him to the Rockies for Arenado. The team that acquires Arenado then would flip him -- and cash from what it saved by ridding itself of the bad deal -- to a third team for prospects.
Yes, this is complicated. It takes creative thinking and can fall apart a million different ways. There are two other hurdles beyond that: Arenado's no-trade and opt-out clauses. If he wants to scuttle a deal, all he has to do is say no. And while few expect Arenado to leave behind $164 million guaranteed after 2021, he is great enough that he could play his way into a larger deal, even if he'll be turning 31 in April 2022. Or he could find himself in championship-chasing mode. The threat of him leaving behind Colorado with the Rockies getting nothing in return is galling enough for them to make a deal work.
5. Though the utility market isn't quite bustling, the versatility of Jurickson Profar and Kiké Hernandez has made them among the more popular free-agent names, according to sources. The versatility of the World Series-winning Dodgers is the envy of other teams, and while Profar is valued for his bat first -- Kansas City and San Diego are just a couple of the teams interested -- his multiposition abilities and age (28 in February) widen his market. Hernandez, 29, has the infield-outfield thing, plenty of playoff experience and a good reputation around the game for his clubhouse presence. Neither will break the bank. Both should do well.